Recession 'officially' ended in 2009

Gold at new highs.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1

Silver at all time highs.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1

Dr. Copper continues it's move higher off the lows set in March of 2009.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w1

Prices in junk bonds continues to be strong.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SHIAX+Basic+Chart&t=2y

Where are all the bears?

This would not be news to bears, who can read for themselves that we have had positive GDP growth since 4Q2009. It was only a matter of time before NBER made it official.

Its not the recession that worries rational bears (including Schiller, for example) - its high unemployment and stricter lending standards. Nothing in TOP changes those.

how did the homebuilder confidence # come out this morning ?

13

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-20/homebuilder-confidence-in-u-s-held-in-september-at-lowest-level-in-a-year.html

Woohoo! recession over!! Should we buy now or be priced out forever?

If you can take advantage of a nervous or desperate seller, can access cheap cost of capital, and are capable of riding out the storm, go for it. But beware of "irrational exuberance" - stay disciplined.

Housing prices sure isn't crashing as many predicted here in March of 2009.

:)

This recession was very different(past tense). It's irrational to expect a surge in new construction housing. Too much over-supply.

Very true but on a macro level we're not stable enough yet. That said, you have to assess the risk of any event. Chances of surviving crossing the street, chances of not sitting in two hours of traffic on the FDR on a Saturday at midnight (as I did), chances of the world's powers collapsing reducing us to a bizarre form of anarchy a la Cormac McCarthy, chances of the world's financial titans leaving their NYC home and finding cheaper rents and a more forgiving tax environment somewhere else, etc. Chances are, we're getting through this. Chances are, at some point in the next decade, we'll ride another bubble (at least start to). I'm certainly not bullish but trying to keep the big picture in mind.

> Housing prices sure isn't crashing as many predicted here in March of 2009.

Mainly because they already crashed. Or did you miss that?

"Its not the recession that worries rational bears (including Schiller, for example) - its high unemployment and stricter lending standards. Nothing in TOP changes those."

Also the fact that housing is still showing major problems (foreclosure pipeline listed at record high this week) even with the recovery.

Also, note that this article also confirmed as many of the bears - including me - said... longer recession than the 70s...

"Mainly because they already crashed. Or did you miss that?"

Well, you did say another 30-40% lower in Spring of 2009.
We're actually UP since Spring of 2009.

"longer recession than the 70s..."

Recession is over my friend.
Deal with it.

and the search for yield continues.

"and the search for yield continues. "

Too much money chasing too few opportunities.

Exactly how Bernanke , Summers & Geithner want it!

what do you think this would look like absent intervention by the fed?

> Well, you did say another 30-40% lower in Spring of 2009.

Please show me where I said that.

> Recession is over my friend.

Did you finally just admit we had a recession?

Wha? Wha? It's over?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-construction-jumps-105-apf-4101143282.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

"Home construction jumps 10.5 pct in August
Housing construction up 10.5 pct. in August; applications for building permits also rise "

More confirmation.

R these the same home contraction ppl who kept building right into the great depression of 07'? I guess when you are a whore, it's alwayz whore season.

And for a yahoo like yourself, it's always yahoo season.

ericho are you effin kidding me? do you get a hardon when the wind blows too?

Basically the article is saying we're at such a low base that just a small change results in huge percentage moves(i.e if you are a caar dealer that sold one car in July and two cars in August then one could say you increased the sales rate by 100% but what does that really tell you?

ericho, i noticed you returned and are still ducking the question.

> > Well, you did say another 30-40% lower in Spring of 2009.
> Please show me where I said that.