Builders Betting on Renters
Started by stevejhx
about 15 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
Discussion about
Housing starts are a bright spot in the economy today, right? An unexpected 10.5 percent leap in the number of new homes started in August has everyone buzzing. The street was looking for around flat. So how can this be after the National Association of Home Builders sentiment survey yesterday came in below expectations, with builders saying their "hands are tied" by an impossible job market and rising foreclosures? Simple. Look at the numbers, please. The 10.5 percent jump was driven by a 32 percent jump in multi-family. http://www.cnbc.com/id/39290370 So much for rosy housing.
All those seven million folks who are about to be foreclosed upon are gonna have to rent someplace.
Flmaoz. 1/2 of all foreclosures are ppl who doubled or tripled down in the bubble. The overhang is huge, fwiw, I got 40 listings of new foreclosures in a market that I am interested in. Normally, 4 or 5 in a week. Could Fannie/ Freddie be pushing now that it looks like pretend and extend has ended? Me thinkz I'd be short financials going into the next 3 quarters. Ha ha ha ha.
idiot. How about promoting one of your fraud schemes again?
When you buy in this new market, will you be involved in lawsuits with the tenants?
What if a tenant doesn't pay their last month's rent, like you avoided doing in one rental when you were the renter?
OK, with the possible exception of W67, it's time to thumb my nose at the bears on this thread who've gone tame on us! (-;
I don't buy the bullishness on multi-family structures. If you look at the first chart on the following link, I would think you'd even be less "rosy" than the commentator at CNBC.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/single-family-housing-starts-increase.html
Looking at the "big picture" (i.e. the chart of housing starts by month) this minor uptick - even in multi-family structures - is much ado about little. Y-O-Y the percentage change in either multi-family or the total looks kind of nice, but when you compare it to the boom years of 2005, single-family, multi-family, and total REMAIN off by about 70%-75%.
[Haven't seen any references to "'tis a flesh wound" lately. Perhaps the more appropriate Monty Python quote is "it'll just grow back again, then, will it?"]
Agree with this post. The dynamics have moved in favor of rental housing as purchase. Also those constructing multi-family units are not doing so based on the rents collected today but an assessment of rents they are likely to collect over the next several decades. If less people purchase that just means more renters and higher prices.
As far as wages to support rents, the economy will revive, it always has and it always will, the only question is when. So higher rents will be supported in the future.