J Miller says market is back to normal

Buy now or be priced out forever!

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/22013-dont-you-get-the-feeling-that-this-fall-?comment_id=335948

So, "normal" is 20% off peak?

What 20%? maybe your walk up on 38th and 9th. The building I live in, most apartments are selling above their 2007/2008 closing prices.

What building is that?

"The building I live in, most apartments are selling above their 2007/2008 closing prices."

HAHAHAHAHA!

When was it built? 2009?

It really bothers the bulls that they were wrong about their predictions for a market crash. They don't even have Miller to cite anymore.

i am not revealing where i live. but here are some examples:

04/19/2007
Previously Listed in StreetEasy, already in contract, by Prudential Elliman at $1,535,000.
07/14/2008
Prudential Elliman Listing sold.
07/14/2008
Previous Sale recorded for $1,563,013.
04/29/2010
Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,695,000.
06/08/2010
Price increased by 3% to $1,750,000.
06/18/2010
Listing sold.
09/01/2010
Sale recorded for $1,665,000.

09/04/2008
Previous Sale recorded for $1,731,025.
06/05/2010
Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,825,000.
07/12/2010
Listing entered contract.
08/19/2010
Listing sold.
08/19/2010
Sale recorded for $1,825,000.

08/25/2007
Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,985,000.
08/11/2008
Prudential Elliman Listing sold.
08/11/2008
Previous Sale recorded for $2,021,226.
12/09/2009
Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $2,295,000.
03/26/2010
Price decreased by 5% to $2,175,000.
04/24/2010
Price increased by 1% to $2,200,000.
05/21/2010
Listing entered contract.
06/16/2010
Listing sold.
06/16/2010
Sale recorded for $2,175,000.

03/25/2007
Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,530,000.
07/22/2008
Previous Sale recorded for $1,557,922.
05/07/2009
Prudential Elliman Listing sold. Last priced at $1,725,000.
01/08/2010
Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,975,000.
02/05/2010
Delisted temporarily.
02/22/2010
Listing entered contract.
04/01/2010
Listing sold.
04/01/2010
Sale recorded for $1,894,000.

Previously Listed in StreetEasy, already in contract, by Prudential Elliman at $1,535,000.

Let me explain. We had a development BOOM with the credit boom here. You may see thousands of listings on SE that say something like: "Listed in StreetEasy, already in contract"

More likely than not, what that means is you have a deal for a new dev that was signed in early phase releases by the sponsor. What closed in 2008 for 1.563m total consideration, could very likely have been signed sometime in 2006. The marketing teams for these developments a) didnt create records for total units of inventory and b) didnt upload status updates when contracts were signed until 1-2 yrs later. Think about that. So you got listings that are not shown in inventory, signed in 2006, uploaded in 2007 or 2008 as ALREADY IN CONTRACT (no prior ACTIVE state), then closed when the dev was complete in 2008. So, if that buyer happened to sign in March 2006, I would not call that a peak sale. Only way to tell is to check ACRIS image doc and sort through until you see contract date on one of the 8-11+ images on file. I did this for 1000s during my spot checks for my new analytics and found 1000s of sales that were supposedly signed into contract in early 2008, to actually have been signed in 2006 and 2007.

So, use caution when saying todays deals are higher than peak. Its possible todays deals are higher than a deal signed in early 2006, a year or so prior to peak. Im just sayin

It's http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/chelsea-stratus

you are correct. it was a new development. but sales did not begin until spring of 2007. pretty much at the very peak of the market.

can u disclose the dev so I can check the unit..im curious. Im sure there are always a few examples of higher than peak sales here and there, but in general, its not what the market is doing.

"It really bothers the bulls that they were wrong about their predictions for a market crash."

HAHAHAHAHA! 25% off peak - and falling - is not a "crash"?

Prices in Chelsea Stratus plummeted.

"It really bothers the bulls that they were wrong about their predictions for a market crash. They don't even have Miller to cite anymore."

+1

Here's a money-losing listing:

5EF $1,792,000

Sales info:

10/16/07 5EF $2,000,000

350bleecker.com

This is AFTER investing considerable money to reconfigure the units.

Add in the 6% broker fee, the 2% flip tax, and the transfer tax, and you're starting to see major, major losses.

At the current price, BTW, it's overvalued. Actual price should be around $1.4 million, based on the individual prices of the combined units.

"It's http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/chelsea-stratus"

Isn't this Steve's old neighborhood.
Look at those prices. "IF" only he had the foresight to see this rise and stop blowing money in the stock market.

I'm giving myself a 'high-five' for calling the bottom.

'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'

I lived below 23rd Street, in a rental. Glad to be gone from the nabe, as well!

steve remains as factually challenged as ever.

I'm with stevejhx...i'm renting for the next two years and they try and figure it out...

steve..when did you move out of the hood?

More...

'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'

Some 'high-five' to LICComment too.

'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'

Isn't it GREAT to see Bears like NYCxxx, W64thStreet, AR, CC, etc etc going into hiding because they missed the bottom.

Now they'll have to wait for the NEXT peak and Bottom. Could be another 10-15 years.

Ouch!

"steve remains as factually challenged as ever."

LICC remains, well....

Living next to the Love Canal South.

I'm going into overdrive mode now with the 'high-fives' for anyone that bought last Spring (peak of the crisis).

'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'

Funny how bears continue to talk about being "right" about a "crash" yet none of them took advantage of the downturn or made any money from it. Also funny how "20% correction" continues to be thrown around when the market has already bounced half of that or more.

Inventory is tight out there and good places are moving fast. I think "back to normal" (pre-flip frenzy) and "stable" are good ways to describe it.

Mr. Juice,

'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'
'high-five'

Listings "are tight"?

Real estate for sale
in Manhattan
We found 9,106 listings

excluding the shadow inventory - a one-year supply.

Please.

Good inventory is tight. Sort of like your 900 sqft rental. Ask anyone out there actually looking.

From a very brief peak of market to a bottom that has since come back significantly, steve hangs on a thread to his fallacy that the market "crashed".

I think steve is a glutton for publicly showing people how wrong he is on multiple issues.

What I love about Juicy and LICC is that when you confront them with facts, Juicy ignores them, and LICC doesn't understand them.

"Good inventory is tight."

Sort of like your a**."

;?|

And LICC hangs on a thread to his fallacy that Long Island City is a good investment.

The numbers don't support the Juicy Theory, so the Juicy Theory changes from "inventory is tight" to "good inventory is tight."

I think you're right in a sense, Juicy - if "good inventory" means "properly priced" inventory, then there is a shortage.

"And LICC hangs on a thread to his fallacy that Long Island City is a good investment."

Prices are up 15-25% since Spring of 2009.
:)

In steve's bizarro land of the ignorant, prices going up makes an investment bad, and renting in a dumpy building on 52nd street and 8th avenue is a good investment.

I don't know about you LICC, but I decided to refinance during the downturn and my mortgage payment is now 20% less than it was at peak. I wonder how steve will calculate that into his rent vs. buy analysis?

"I don't know about you LICC, but I decided to refinance during the downturn and my mortgage payment is now 20% less than it was at peak. I wonder how steve will calculate that into his rent vs. buy analysis?"

same here. i might even do it again if the rates keep dropping. taking the mortgage interest deduction into consideration, my monthly payment is less than what a similar apartment rents for these days. and i am paying off principal every month.

Hey it's the financial three stooges. Posting back to back to back. Do that poking your eyes out thing. Flmaoz.

Yes your monthly nut is 20% down, it's the govt's way of keeping the lemmings, well lemmings. This does end well for you bubble buyers..... Trust me. I have a devry degree with $400k loan backstopped by my $2mm heloc on my lic studio next to the EPA superfund site!

"I wonder how steve will calculate that into his rent vs. buy analysis?"

The interest on my co-op loan is currently at 3.50%.

How I would calculate it into the rent-versus-buy analysis is just one more transaction charge.

"In steve's bizarro land of the ignorant, prices going up makes an investment bad"

Nope - in LICC's bizarro land of the ignorant, living between a EPA Superfund Site and the largest public housing project in North America is a good idea.

"Do that poking your eyes out thing."

Hilarious!

"Yes your monthly nut is 20% down, it's the govt's way of keeping the lemmings, well lemmings."

w67th, how do you execute a rent vs. buy analysis when your dad pays for your apartment?

Air quality and sickness rates are higher in Manhattan than in LIC. Fact. In steve's bizarro world, living in a more polluted, sicker area as proven by health department statistics is a positive.

It's become quite fun pointing out steve's intellectual deficiencies.

Correction: Air pollution and sickness rates are higher in Manhattan . . .

Jm, I'll let you as soon as my nanny changes my diaper.

Hey if mortgage rate goes to zero?, you CAN'T take the mortgage deduction! WTF that's like 80% of the reason to buy, no ?, stooges?

if mortgage rates go to zero, you will finally be able to afford to buy a parking spot in staten island for your trailer.

I think, LIC, to be intellectually rigorous - never one of your strong points - you need to compare borough to borough, not borough to "neighborhood," as it were.

And when you do, you'll see what a much nicer place Manhattan is, overall.

The figures you point out are due to the fact that Manhattan has a much higher level of POOR CHILDREN than Queens does. (27.8% versus 17.3% living below the poverty line.) I find it rather offensive that you tout that Long Island City is a better place to live because there are fewer sicker children.

Disgusting behavior by you - no wonder you support the Tea Party.

Rancid.

Flmaoz ekazh, only a fool like you would buy a parkig spot when mortgages are 0. Me, I'd do the 300year $1 trillion balloon payment, ya fking lemming. What if nyc re goes to $500psf? That's called lemming transfer payment. The postal worker who bgt for $50k and who sold you a shitbag for $1mm thanks you. As does his entire family.

what if nyc goes to $4psf? what if it goes to $2000? just because you keep saying it, does not mean it will happen. you were probably screaming $350 when it was at $700. unfortunately for you it went the other way. keep preaching.

now run along. daddy is going to be home soon. make sure all the dirty dishes are washed.

Lemmings soup for dinner!

If this thread demonstrates anything (and that's a stretch - there's very little useful information in here), it's that those who are more interested in keeping this never-ending debate going will not hesitate to do so. Those who are actually serious about buying a home have been out there shopping or have already bought. A good chunk of the old-timers from this site seem to have eventually purchased. Those that are still pounding their fists on the table and retyping the same old trite lines aren't much more than amusing at this point.

Yet you type on, bjw.

"w67th, how do you execute a rent vs. buy analysis when your dad pays for your apartment?"

So sad.

hey all...just wanted to stick my head in. Wazzzzzzzzupp

"Those that are still pounding their fists on the table and retyping the same old trite lines aren't much more than amusing at this point."

They snooze. They lose.

Poor Aboutready was an apprentice of w67thStreet. Now she has to answer to her husband every night about bumming in a 2 bedroom rental in Peter Cooper Village. *Ouch*

All thanks to our infamous Streeteasy.com loser name w67thstreet.

If he didn't have to foresight to see this bounce, what makes you think he'll have the foresight to make any sound financial decision going forward. I've warned you all about this loser for months.
For those that bought in the height of the crisis. Go give yourself a *HIGH FIVE*...again!

*HIGH FIVE*
*HIGH FIVE*
*HIGH FIVE*

Junk bonds on the verge of another breakout.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHIAX+Interactive#chart5:symbol=shiax;range=1y;indicator=sma%2850,200%29+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Oh that's right..this is suppose to be a useless indicator as w64thstreet mentioned 15 months ago. WRONG!

wazzzzzuuuuupppppppp....peeps.

Oh ericho, as of today there are 1,018 listings on SE for MANHATTAN properties that are ASKING for less than $600psf. So, get yourself some new batteries for that strap on... m'okay, SuperFund boy.

FLMAOz...

steve, excellent observation. I do check in here, though with less frequency than I used to. But looks like I've missed nothing. TTFN.

bjw... keep coming back, its' always fun on SE...

here, Urbandigs chart for the last 30 days inventory for Manhattan.. looks like a hockey stick, the kind that precedes a dramatic decrease in prices...... ha ha ha ha... won't be long now.
http://www.urbandigs.com/charts.html

looks like the reverse of 3 months ago. right back to july numbers.

"w67thstreet
27 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse

wazzzzzuuuuupppppppp....peeps.

Oh ericho, as of today there are 1,018 listings on SE for MANHATTAN properties that are ASKING for less than $600psf. So, get yourself some new batteries for that strap on... m'okay, SuperFund boy.

FLMAOz..."

712 of them are located above 96th street. and the rest are your shitty, urine infested walk ups on 37th and 10th. you know, similar to the one you rent.

Wazzzzzzzzzup

I'm really, really concerned about seasonal fluctuations. Makes me want to rent a 900 sqft apartment at the Ellington and tell everyone it is 1200 sqft.

bjw, the only thing you are missing is the playoffs

a million apologies, for thinking above 96th street is NOT MANHATTAN. HOW can a $342psf townhouse on west 97th street EVER going to be a comp for a 96th street Townhouse at $1500psf.... they are WORLDS apart. I mean what financial ninny would pay an extra $9.8MM to walk another block? Barbarians, these $342psf buyers.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/516674-townhouse-309-west-97th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/558188-coop-109-west-26th-street-chelsea-new-york

or this 7000sq ft far west 26th street unit, my GOD! might as well live in LIC, that works out to $521psf.

219W 70th street IS NOT MANHATTAN!
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/529270-multi-219-west-70th-street-lincoln-square-new-york

$430psf

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/350708-coop-180-east-79th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

180East 79th street, might as well live in IDAHO!, listening ho?

$599psf.... but let's see where it closes.... 5000sq ft for under $3MM

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/558170-townhouse-316-west-78th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

THIS is TOO WEST for my taste.... might as well be in edgewater

$574psf... still available if you wanna put your strap on back on

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/546326-condo-135-west-27th-street-chelsea-new-york

4000 sf for under $2.2MM... is it like Flushing Queens? OH, no no ... it's fking 135 west 27th street. You know I used to serve legal papers to some "massage" parlors for my boss near there... right next to the flower shops... boy that area's turning over...

Are you naked while you type?

For a financial and RE genius, W67th sure spends a lot of time on SE.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/501953-62-e-1st-east-village-new-york

falco, you like the east villagey side no? Howz about a 2900 sqft ground floor unit.. for under a $1MM, $1.18MM, thats just a "begging" ask price.... $407psf, for the financially retarded.. oh and if you get it below $1MM, which it will... thatz like breaking the $400barrier, easily.

Stay away from children when naked

AND finally, let's go the OTHER WAY. Let's see how many units in MANHATTAN come up for between $1500psf and $5000psf....

and the magic number is 1,412. So let's compare two townhouses.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/549555-townhouse-12-east-96th-street-carnegie-hill-new-york
$30MM for 13,144 sq ft to live btwn 5th and park on 96th street or ya can buy the 97th street west one above for $2.9MM and walk a FEW FKING BLOCKS. I don't know HOW MANY FKING CAB RIDES CAN I GET FOR $23MM left after renovations? ALRIGHTY, financial retards, break out the "CAB to Earnings" calculators or just download it from the APP store....

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/516674-townhouse-309-west-97th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

Stay away from children when naked

use this:

http://www.urbandigs.com/activ-pend.jpg

w67thstreet
about 1 hour ago
ignore this person
report abuse

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/546326-condo-135-west-27th-street-chelsea-new-york

4000 sf for under $2.2MM... is it like Flushing Queens? OH, no no ... it's fking 135 west 27th street. You know I used to serve legal papers to some "massage" parlors for my boss near there... right next to the flower shops... boy that area's turning over...

Why are you listing commercial spaces. And you couldnt find anything with common charges under $6,000 per month? Keep posting your bullshit

bob, i'm so successful in finance I can do what I like with my spare time... I don't see the incongruity of it. AND IT DOES GIVE ME GREAT GREAT JOY to make fun of financial ninnies... I'm writing a book called "The BURSTING OF THE NYC RE bubble through the EYES of W67thstreet"

ekartash, interesting a "commercial" space that is priced at $550psf and no takers? What kind of a long term lease do you think you need to lock up before making this a "good" investment? $100psf, $50psf? and if commercial space, where one IS expected to make money is selling for LESS than residential units, then RESIDENTIAL units are => fill in the blank, you financial ninny.

UD, whaaaaazzzzzzup? Looks like "pending" fell thru the floor after 9/30 and "active" is spiking like a motherfker... I WONDER WHERE prices will GO? :)

You are becoming a bore..... Wake me up when you come up with new bullshit.

wake up,

WHEN demand goes down and inventory rises, it's the PERFECT recipe for NYC RE TO GO UP!!!!! ekartash, sweet real estate dreams, darling.

Bf you fall asleep, let me read you the book "NYC RE NEVER GOES DOWN" by Dolly fake boobs LENS.

"Funny how bears continue to talk about being "right" about a "crash" yet none of them took advantage of the downturn or made any money from it"

Funny how Juice still keeps skipping the part where he admits he was wrong, and there was a crash.

Oh, and didn't make money from it?!?! Ha.
Tell that do my SSOs!

Granted, I'll still take not making compared to the SHELLACKING that buyers got.

"I'm going into overdrive mode now with the 'high-fives' for anyone that bought last Spring (peak of the crisis)."

Thank you!

love those ssos!

wait, I'm "hiding". ROTFL.

w67 tried to make a point about psf prices in Manhattan by pointing to listings above 96th Street, where everyone knows is considered a different market????

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!!!

There are still some bears here that want to believe the delusion that NYC real estate crashed and all owners out there got "shellacked". These bears are a rare species nowadays, but some still exist . . .

"w67 tried to make a point about psf prices in Manhattan by pointing to listings above 96th Street, "

And LICC continues to post about Manhattan real estate, despite living in LONG ISLAND CITY!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!!!

"http://www.urbandigs.com/activ-pend.jpg"

Nice sight.
Good job.

Steve and W64thstreet,

How are those gold shorts?
Another new high...1322.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC

I find it hard to believe someone as successful as you claim to be, would be so interested in arguing over NYC RE on a message board. Checking in and posting from your iPod?

Most self made successful people continue to have the drive that made them successful. My guess is you were given the opportunity to be successful by family, did well but then anyone would have and now you just sit around based on the hand me down success.

"Makes me want to rent a 900 sqft apartment at the Ellington and tell everyone it is 1200 sqft."

And post the floor plan and still insist it's 1200? No one's that daft, right?

"bjw, the only thing you are missing is the playoffs"

Zing. Was a tough year, for many reasons, but plenty of reasons to look forward to next season. That and the rest of the "big four" teams look like contenders this year as well.

"Funny how Juice still keeps skipping the part where he admits he was wrong, and there was a crash."

Why does this record keep skipping?

> There are still some bears here that want to believe the delusion that NYC real estate crashed

Amusing... LIC *still* having trouble with those, uh, number things.

Jeez, LIC, digging deeper and depper...

Now, here is the REALLY funny part... LIC, besides being ignorant about the crash is also (with ericho)... actually *wrong* here. The claims about the increase? Well, not quite...

Take a look at the medians by size again.... it's the blend... turns out studios and one beds are down AGAIN.

All manhattan medians
Studios
Q2 - $410k
Q3 - $375k
down 9%!

1 Bedroom
Q2 - $639k
Q3 - $610k
down 5%!

2 Bedrooms basically flat (1.25 both periods)
3 bedrooms - 2.6 to 2.7 (up 4%)

btw, I'm posting the full workup on the medians by category thread, give me a few min.

wow, prove ericho wrong and he goes batty...

> 'high-five'
> 'high-five'
> 'high-five'

Guess all that self-congratulating was awful premature.

WHOOPS.

"It really bothers the bulls that they were wrong about their predictions for a market crash. They don't even have Miller to cite anymore."

WHOOPS.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21856-data-causing-the-screams-declines-by-category

Darn, bulls, its been years, couldn't you have come back with a better comeback than this?

From the Miller Samuel 3Q Report: The median sales price of a Manhattan apartment was . . . 7.5% higher than . . . in the prior year quarter and 1.7% above . . . in the prior quarter. . . . Price per square foot was 4.5% higher than . . . in the prior quarter.

sme still wants to believe the market crashed. He really, really wants to believe it . . .

LICC... give it up. When you make your millions I'm sure your goal is to live in a third world country w/o running water... did you already make your $$$, is that why you are in LIC?

> From the Miller Samuel 3Q Report:

My data is from... guess what.. Miller Samuel. I just know how to go past the front page and understand all the numbers. A little math goes a long way, LIC.

One more time... studios down another 9%, one bedrooms down another 5%.

Add it together, EVERY one of the apartment size categories is down more than 20%

Its all here...
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21856-data-causing-the-screams-declines-by-category

Thats a crash, toots! (and we're still in it)

Understand the numbers- that's where you fail sme.

Relatively more people are buying bigger, more expensive apartments, driving overall medians higher.

Keep digging around for that crash, you'll find something someplace . . .

Swe, we aren't doing quarter by quarter medians again are we? Tisk tisk

Somehow swe thinks I was wrong when an apartment in my line just sold for 18% more than I paid, my mortgage payment is 20% less than it was two years ago, and my all in cost before tax benefit is slightly less than I would pay in rent (if you could actually find that rental). If I was wrong, than I'm pretty damn happy about it.

< Understand the numbers- that's where you fail sme

funny, from the guy who STILL hasn't responded back on the huge averages mistake he made. LIC, you have to understand what an average is first... then come talk to us.

> Relatively more people are buying bigger, more expensive apartments, driving overall medians higher.

And they're paying less for those apartments!

Just as I said!

> Swe, we aren't doing quarter by quarter medians again are we? Tisk tisk

Yes, juice, I know how much of an aversion to accuracy you have...

> If I was wrong, than I'm pretty damn happy about it.

Well, at least you're (finally* admitting you were wrong.

Poor swe, can't see the forest through the bushes

poor juice, he's cracking up again.

And sounding waaaaaaay too close to steve 'ok, i called it totally wrong, but I used limit orders and made a billion dollars yesterday' jhx....

hee hee

ssos up 170%! how do you like them bushes.

c'mon swe, we may not agree all the time but comparing me to steve? That's just not necessary.

You're right, thats mean. I'm sorry.

Very funny thread!
w67...let me remind you that Dolly is special for me.
She's my #1 customer at the Falco Spank Bank.
That reminds me...I have to send her another toaster.