Run away bull in Gold

Remember this article about the resilience of Manhattan's RE market originally entitled "The City of Gold" circa August 2007?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/19/realestate/19cov.html

Gold's nearly doubled. Manhattan RE, not so much...

q.e. ii

weak dollar could drive foreign investment in nyc real estate

People would rather own the euro than the dollar. how messed up is that?

New all time highs on Silver
Copper 52 week highs and closing in on NEW ALL TIME HIGHS.

China PMI came in higher than expected last night.

Oil back above 80 and ready to roll.

Since Spring of 2009 i've been telling you folks to get out of cash and into assets.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1

cash has never been a long term investment. it's a liquidity tool and emergency funds. this time IS NOT DIFFERENT!

"weak dollar could drive foreign investment in nyc real estate"

You mean the foreigners who are all in recessions too, or the Chinese who can't freely convert their currency?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/45911b64-cf17-11df-9be2-00144feab49a.html

JPMorgan has reopened an underground gold vault in New York that was mothballed in the 1990s, in the latest sign of the soaring appetite for bullion.

Investors are piling money into gold in record quantities, pushing the price on Friday to a record nominal high of more than $1,320 a troy ounce. That has made the vaulting business highly lucrative, since banks often charge a small percentage of the value of the gold stored.

My advice: start buying tulip futures.

Gold reflects the worldwide fear of weakening currencies and a lack of alternative investments such as risky stock markets and bond markets with low returns.

Today is one of the best times in the past decade to be considering investing in your home for the future. Making a home purchase is equivalent to prepaying your future living costs. With your investment money potentially not going into risky stocks or low returning bonds, or ever increasing and probably unsustainable gold prices, and with interest rates for borrowing for home ownership at record lows, investing in a home for you and for your family - where you know you are going to live - is a sensible personal strategy for your current and future security.

Maybe the Gold-bulls are just Keynsians who have secretly discovered the "quanity theory of money"

Ericho. Only so many times you can fake it with a strap on.

DaBulls is back!

"Gold reflects the worldwide fear of weakening currencies"

How can all currencies weaken at once?

Oh, RS: the quantity theory of money has been disproved empirically. Quantity is one aspect of the equation; velocity is the other. You can have all the money in the world, but if you don't spend it, NOTHING HAPPENS.

Ask the Japanese.

It was demonstrated by Keynsians to Keynsians and agreed to by Keynsians that quantity theory of money doesn't work. oh yea, "velocity" which is very difficult to measure/work with.....

And we're not Japan, Japan had a huge surplus in savings by individuals which the u.s does not. One big reason the gov't can spend and not depreciate the Yen.

"How can all currencies weaken at once?"

Thats the point. All central banks are trying to debase their currencies to stimulate. The gold play is not so much a dollar inverse trade, although that element does drive gold to an extent, gold can still rise when the dollar rises - proof enough throughout 2008 and early 2009.

Gold will rise as fiscal policies across the world work to stave off debt deflationary forces. Done. Thats the gold trade. Gold is finite. You cant print gold. Been saying this for 4 years now, since the 700s

"Only so many times you can fake it with a strap on. "

You're so wrong so often, why would anyone believe you. You loser.

"oh yea, "velocity" which is very difficult to measure/work with"

Lot's of things are "difficult to measure / work with" - that doesn't make them invalid.

UD, I've tried to say it before: increasing the money supply does not necessarily "debase" the currency if the process used is monetization of assets. If it is merely "printing money," a la Latin America, then it does necessarily "debase" the currency.

Gold has no intrinsic value - it's a very dangerous thing to hold because the demand for it is purely psychological. It has no real industrial use that cannot be replaced with other metals such as silver or copper or steel. It is inert. The only thing that I would ever do with gold is the only thing that I'd ever do with tulips: short it.

"Gold has no intrinsic value.
The only thing that I would ever do with gold is the only thing that I'd ever do with tulips: short it."

This is about the dumbest comment you have ever made Steve. So how much have you lost shorting gold the last 5-6 years????
Can you tell me what other currency or store of value that have lasted longer than gold? Gold's been used and continued to be used as money since the beginning of time. Big money is buying it and buying it BIG for the past 10 years.

Again, if you can't see it (like the real estate bottom last year), then you'll probably never see this one neither.

steve cmon now..for me, the intrinsic value is the fact that I can sell my gold which I bought at 675 + 760, at 'market value' levels around 1,300 right now. I guess if what I perceive as 'market value' is not what at all related to what you call intrinsic value, well then I cant argue.

My response would be EVERY ASSET CLASS's perceived value is psychological. Look at credit, stocks, real estate..etc..

I do agree it has little industrial use. But that is not why I own gold in times of fiscal insanity, gen worldwide currency debasement and big time uncertainty. The only thing I did with gold is buy it at X on the open market, and plan to sell it at X times 2 now, if I wanted to

And then there's the onion, where Bernanke admits to a stunned Congress that the dollar is just paper and it's worthless.

Steve,
until people give up gold jewelry you have no argument. Unlike paper money the supply is relatively fixed and with the printing presses going full speed it's value relative to a fixed store of value is declining.

Lots of talk:little substance. I don't think one of the intervenants has any money left after shorting gold.(my safe bet is it's just drunken bragging).
The problem from an investment point of view (not the usual: can u eat it? it has no value...)is simple.
Gold (and silver) is in a secular bull market. It is the easiest way to make money in life (as Livermore said: rare are those who can both be right and sit tight).
Again get on board and do nothing.
I did that a few years ago (with more than 80% of my assets, just like Paulson). This has led me to retire this june.

We're in the fifth inning.. the bull run in gold has yet to play out. The politicians do not care that we are printing too many dollars and depreciating the currency. As they see it, this makes American workers more competitive. Until interest rates ratchet up, expect Gold to keep going up. This could continue for several years.. maybe $2,000 an ounce.

"until people give up gold jewelry you have no argument"

Riversider, if you turned all the gold in Fort Knox and the NY Fed into jewelry and distributed it equitably around the world, you'd be weighted down in gold.

Learn about things before you talk dumb, ha?

"Learn about things before you talk dumb, ha?

How are those Gold shorts silly?

New highs again.
RTQ 1332.

What is natural demand and why is so important anyway?

All I read about is continued easing all over the globe, continued terrorist threats from all of ever the globe, Iran about to blow a gasket, Afganistan is a disaster and getting worse, another weak administration here, virtually no return in treasuries... so countries, large institutions, and individuals are buying up gold....I dunno, that demand seems natural enough to me....

It's about protection of wealth. All those folks that raised cash while smart money was rotating into assets last year are going to get a real rude awakening over the next few years.

http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

And i know majority of the Bears here are deflationist. The fed is in the process of proving that deflation is a fraud. Gold's been speaking loud and clear over the past 10 years.

As Richard Russell would say "Inflate or Die."

Gold 'should' pause here for a bit before another push upward.

1,500 year end looks like a real possibility by year end.

High at 1340.90.

Don't own any gold, or any gold shorts. When stocks rise at the same time as gold, however, it should give you pause to think.

Steve,

You knucklehead have no idea.

Steve,

You made this comment yesterday.

"The only thing that I would ever do with gold is the only thing that I'd ever do with tulips: short it."

If you aren't short then you're not putting the money where your mouth is. Which sums it all up. You're full of sh!t.

What is the average lifespan of a tulip?

If you stack tulips on top of each other, do the ones on the bottom retain their form?

once we start to see some fiscal sanity, golds run will be over. Clearly, that doesnt seem to be the case yet.

What is the ticker for the tulip ETF?

Answered my own question - TUL: http://www.investingwithoptions.com/2010/04/01/new-etf-to-offer-new-ways-to-lose-money/

We may be on to something with the tulips. I just purchased a tulip watch online - http://www.tulipwatches.com/

Answers to the question about storing tulips can be found here: http://www.flower-garden-bulbs.com/tulip-bulb-storage.html

nice breakout!

TUL.

Steve: "The only thing that I would ever do with gold is the only thing that I'd ever do with tulips: short it"

which to erico means that I actually have to be short it at all times.

Delusional.

steve, you are streeteasy's tulip, but we would never short you.

urn, I don't know what that means, but I'll take it as a compliment. :)

Most emerging market central banks have only tiny holdings of gold relative to their foreign exchange reserves - particularly China. We saw a big purchase by India a few months agao. I expect further EM central bank purchases in months and years to come. Do you really want all your FX reserves in dollars? In Euros? In Yen?

Fiat paper currencies are too easily debased.

Yes, bubbles are dangerous. And I am anxious. But I think this bull run has further to go.

This 180+ point move from 1160 is one of the most orderly advance in gold that i can remember.
In the last 10 weeks, the prior week's low have only been breached once.

It might be entering a mini blow-off phrase. 1,500 in a few weeks might not be so crazy.

Everything is up these days. The decline of USD is lifting all tides.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d1

1351 high today.

Over bought on the daily and weekly now.
We should continue to run up to the next fed meeting or when they announce QE.

My guess is the dollar index bottoms at 62-65 in Spring of 2011.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1

1365 high in prehour.

Chooo Choooo...

EUR/USD briefly broke 1.40. Rumor has it, a billion dollar changed hands when it broke 1.40.

1375...is that alot?

You must be very proud of yourself, ericho.

South Korea, holder of the world’s fifth-biggest foreign exchange reserves, is considering buying gold to diversify its dollar-heavy portfolio, the country’s central bank said, adding it would be cautious in making any final decision.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/74576bd6-da90-11df-81b0-00144feabdc0.html

but...who's to blame?

Ah, columbiacounty. Master of the bon mot.

"You must be very proud of yourself, ericho."

I wake up padding myself in the back.
:)

1402.60 high.

Should see 1,500 in a few weeks. Potential move to 1,600 by spring when dollar bottoms.

Don't forget gold's sister.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1

Keep shorting Steve, no wonder you can't afford afford a place.

Hey didn't you just sell half your gold position bf the latest run up? Flmazoe.

What's that 'ism'. Right on the direction, light on the trade?

Lest I be accused of being riversider. What is the rate of return for not losing $1mm in two 3 years on a 10x leveraged basis? Flmaoz. That would be the opposite of you lic ph purchase. Tool

"That would be the opposite of you lic ph purchase. Tool "

It's up 15% from my purchase price. I'll unload it to you for 1.5 million if you like.
:)

the real story is: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101108/bs_nm/us_gold_zoellick

> It's up 15% from my purchase price.

The can of soda I just bought is up 97% from my purchase price. Because I said so.

:)

see for your self.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-powerhouse

"The can of soda I just bought is up 97% from my purchase price. Because I said so."

You truly are an idiot.

Gold closed at 1410 today.

Should see 1500 real soon.

w67thstreet
about 7 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Lest I be accused of being riversider.

Hmm, you use that word "lest" so elloquently. Is "lest" part of another word that you know well?

Do you have your clothes on right now? Are you around children? Yes or mo?

Ericho75 . . . I would be interested in hearing some more of your thoughts about 'golds sister!!'

Any sort of analysis that gives you a prediction?

Sure. Ericho would say. Gold will rise but you should sell bf it goes higher. Isn't that what your actions state?

Oh for analysis. Type in y.
A
H
O
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C
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M

Ericho, W67th always adds the wit n humor to keep things interesting--which is Kool!!

HOWEVER, I truly do wanna hear what ya' may have to say about SILVER . . . .

$1416 and climbing. What's all this say about confidence in Bernanke and the Fed?

There is now a short squeeze going on. In gold but mostly in silver.
JPMorgan and HSBC have massive short positions (completely illegal but in cahoot with CFTC).They are now getting sued left and right and despite government help their shorts are killing them particularly since they do not own the physical silver.
The crooks (GS)have now moved to the other side (long).
Let's watch the movie unfold

One has to wonder if those etf's truly have the gold they claim to have.

"The Myth of Record-High Gold
By DAVID LEONHARDT 16 minutes ago

Gold remains about 40 percent below its record high, once the price is adjusted for inflation..."

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/09/the-myth-of-record-high-gold/?hp

"HOWEVER, I truly do wanna hear what ya' may have to say about SILVER . . . ."

This isn't financial advice but if you want to hear my thoughts...

We might have formed some sort of intermediate top yesterday on all assets. I won't initiate new positions at these prices. Time to lighten up. A move above 78.30 on the dollar index is not going to be good for all commodities 'short term'. In the long run, this bull is no where near done.

Trade Safe and stay away from the bears on this board.

Technical analysis = reading tea leaves.

Yes and No. It does capture past and current price/volume movements. On a short term basis it can add insight. Many successful traders will combine technical and fundamental analysis.

How can all currencies weaken at once?"

This speaks to why people hold gold---IT'S A HEDGE AGAINST CURRENCY RISK!