Pending Sales vs. Active Inventory

Seems like a matter of who's going to blink first.

It seems to me that there is a lack of urgency on both sides right now, and tight inventory in the sense there are not many quality products 'priced right' right now. For sellers, we had a nice reflation and we had a very active early 2010 - so they may feel their place is worth more than it currently is..For buyers, it seems pent up demand pulled trigger in Feb-May, and after that they progressively stood back from jumping in. Now it seems they are more patient, waiting for the good inventory to come in - If you compare ACTIVE vs OFF MKT, you will see a clear negative correlation.

You can compare those two on the free charts page:

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=Off Mkt&mindt=10%2F24%2F2009&maxdt=10%2F24%2F2010&t=Market Trends&interval_mindt=2009%2F10%2F24

Take a loot at the past month. Its fairly clear that ACTIVE inventory is rising due to a re-activation of listings that went off market and now are coming back on. So for motivated buyers, this is really not new inventory - rather, its stuff they probably saw once at some point in last few months, was taken off for summer, and now is back on after Labor Day. Probably why you feel the way you do...when you look at the data in this way

sorry - link broke off:

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=Off+Mkt&mindt=10%2F24%2F2009&maxdt=10%2F24%2F2010&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=2009%2F10%2F24

Wow, I see what you're saying. Seems like the sellers are just like me: They try, fail, give up, and then try again several months later.

for me the bottom line is... high supply (active inventory) and low demand (new contracts) equals lowering prices. the question is when and by how much. It seems obvious that sellers will have to come down, not buyers go up in bids. The reason is if so many are re-listings, obviously a large percentage have to sell. Or else they would have just kept it off market. When November rolls around I think you will see prices discounted to get rid of places before the drop in winter, and the surge of new inventory that comes in spring.

dmag2020, perhaps I am wrong but if your neighborhood is pricing at $1400 psf, then many sellers in that area are quite affluent and probably do not need to sell absent unusual circumstances. That is my best guess as to the low quantity of good inventory in some areas.

What I have often encountered looking in both the UES and UWS are sellers with moderately nice to excellent apartments who will sell to you if you meet their price but have enough money to hold the property or elect to stay in the property until they get their price. Their price is often what the seller paid plus the costs of their renovations plus a little extra.

Anecdotally, I know of 2 sellers on the UWS who have to sell and are getting circa '06 prices, places in good shape, offers received within 3 weeks. Still in the $.

O6, 05, 04, 03 =>. Hahaaaaaaaaaaahaaa. Amazes me ppl don't get high inventory/ low demand => lower prices. Hahahahahhahaaa. Clueless sellers financial ninnies. Fwiw, once I've made my mind to sell a car, I can't stand to be in it. As a potential seller, does your 'home' feel crappies every month it doesn't sell? Hahahahahhahaaa

Just reporting what I see. No idea why people aren't piling on and bidding '03 prices. Can't explain it.

My impression having read SE for awhile now is that there are many different kinds of buyers and sellers throughout the city and every submarket has its own supply and demand dynamics. I only know what I have seen in my own submarket. The OP seems to be looking at a high end market where sellers have enough money to hold the apartment until their price is offered absent unusual circumstances or willingness to take a loss on the sale and make it up buying a new place. I really hope that my impression is wrong, but I do not see dramatic price decreases in the many apartments that I have seen. More and more I think that evnyc is correct when she stated that the opportunity to buy a lower price in 2009 has passed. Again, I would love to be proven wrong because these prices are much too high for what is being shown.

"More and more I think that evnyc is correct when she stated that the opportunity to buy a lower price in 2009 has passed"

this is definitely the case. definitely. the fear trades window was basically Jan-May or so in 2009. thats when uber low offers were getting 'hit' with big time spreads, fueled by fear. todays market is nothing like that, and it took a 12-15 month progressive improvement to deepen this change in sentiment

Just watched 60 Minutes. The next round of fear trade could be just a few months of unemployment away... Tick tick tick tick...

Yes udigs.

Don't look behind that curtain! Omfg! No no no...... The horror the horror....(to be continued)

urbandigs: "...this is definitely the case. definitely."

Stuff like this makes for great quotes in hindsight. It'll be like the talking 'toe' comment...