Busy Winter Market...TrueGotham

I'm glad you had your way with that guy in jail prison. But sometimes there's always a bigger dude in the shower. You may wanna clean that bunghole a deeper this morning.

as bullish as I wanna be, that article is literally pure speculation

Definition of DATA
1: factual information (as measurements or statistics) used as a basis for reasoning, discussion, or calculation
2: information output by a sensing device or organ that includes both useful and irrelevant or redundant information and must be processed to be meaningful
3: information in numerical form that can be digitally transmitted or processed

THis article is anything but data though I may partially agree with definition #2 "information output by an organ"

Here is real data..from my new real time systems:

so farm, 65 contracts signed in last 2 days (still got 3-4 more updates to go today), 192 deals signed in last 7 days, 815 in last 30 days..this is so far on higher pace than November, which was higher than October, which was higher than September. It is what it is..However, with holidays coming up, you can see some strong days on the 30 day ticker leave the tail end and weak days due to holidays come in the front end that makes DEC close out at a weaker pace than what shows now..its a moving window, so the higher pace now is from NOV 15 - DEC 15 period

awfully quiet bears when Noah drops the hammer.....

I didn't wanna say anything. But what Noah has is a day trading platform for multi-decade highly leveraged family asset/liab, 'purchase'. The opposite of what a non financila ninny would look at to pull the trigger post the greatest nyc re bubble popping. And plz, dont b a bubblecaust denier . So you'd be a f'nsteve to think it otherwise or to be lulled into a sense of excelsior.

Fk, banking bonuses will sukz, nxt yr sucks some more, then regular ppl will stop negotiating with a phantom 'banker'. Flmaoz.

why day trader platform? Because 1/15 tools is real time and tracks daily notable listing changes? Please!

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Pending+Sales&s2=&mindt=12%2F15%2F2008&maxdt=12%2F15%2F2010&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=2008%2F01%2F01

it is what it is! If you want to put the recent rise in pace of newly signed deals in context, take a look at Manhattan pending sales for past 3 years. 2010 is a highly seasonal year, seeing a strong early part of the year, a weak summer, and a relative improvement post labor Day..Again, its the data. If you dont trust this, I dont know what to say

Indeed data shows the last 4 months have shown an attempt to get back to the average of 2200 pending sales from the paltry flatline it was at when 1750.
http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Pending+Sales&s2=&mindt=12%2F15%2F2009&maxdt=12%2F15%2F2010&Update=Update&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=

I suppose return to an average is a first step to a positive sign. However, Bullish needs two quarters in a row.
Would still like to see a failed contract rate somewhere.

Can we have that data Steve please? (this is what you call, stroking the device or organ)

we can work on that Truth..and I agree, we need to see more consistency, however, if next years Jan-Mar is anywhere close to this years, we should get it..

lots more chart types coming to measure the strength of the recovery relative to both the weak summer and pre-post Lehman

Noah, your the first website I visit in the am. Thanks for providing the info. I hope it catches on with everyone else and you do great.
SteveF

btw, love the floor premium article....

If 7 day data ia 192 contracts...and that holds up...thats around 775 a month...which is a slower pace than november.

also, if you include as you mention a slow down in sales over the holidays, that could make this already slower month even slower.

didnt we see a drop in pending sales also

And EVEN WITH THIS...Tskr's point that this is all an increase from anemic conditions, still below 2009, and below average is what makes it hilarious...

the only reasons its at all an increase is because of how slow the summer and early fall were..

thx and thx...its catching on, slowly but surely, as we just signed on a great firm. but we are only about 60% finished...people need to know that with these new tools, the data is the data and in my opinion the tough part lies in the interpretations of the trends. Best I can do is work on providing the highest integrity, exposed to as few flaws as possible that otherwise poisons good charts/stats.

you're welcome. Your best bet for integrity is to be able to answer the questions on these board. These posters will rip your platform to shreds(especially if they don't like the results). So any and all integrity/credibility issues will be highlighted here. This place is your greatest feedback for your model.

jstreet - I never disagreed with that. There are dozens of ways to interpret data relative to different time periods. The main point is that since Lehman, we have been trending at a generally lower level overall. That wont change. I disclosed the 2day, 7day, and 30day to leave you guys with as much info as I can give out. I will NOT disagree with your statement: "the only reasons its at all an increase is because of how slow the summer and early fall were.."

But then again, cant you say that the summer and early Fall were anemic when compared to how active the market was from Feb-May?? Yes we can. People ignore what they want and focus on what they want to meet a predetermined bias. I love it. Many people, the same data, and multiple interpretations. The fact is we had a strong market in early 2010 that was not sustainable and we had a very weak summer that was not sustainable. Seasonality.

The data that make your data urbandigs is what I am seeing/seeking. It won't be long how bad bank bonuses will be, esp in light of EU bankers comp. That plus future nyc re tax increases, still bleak unemployment.... Means your data follows my data.

So tell me again what bananas are trading for at the local grocer, while I get my weather maps for Nicaragua tweaked.

> These posters will rip your platform to shreds

Actually, he's gotten a very positive response here. I told him it was awesome last week.

Steve, you should actually try.... uh... maybe.... actually looking at what it says..
http://urbandigs.com/chart.php

Pending sales down 15% since last Jan... and 30% down since May. Its up a bit from horrible october... but down from almost everywhere else... and things don't generally get better as it get colder.

Or, hell, if you can't actually make out a chart.... why don't you actually try reading what Noah says before you claim he said something else.

"this is so far on higher pace than November, which was higher than October, which was higher than September. It is what it is.."

(september was also down 25-30%) from earlier in year.

right, which leads to the future...think about when we get to Aug-Sept 2011...the starting point will be so depressed from this years very weak summer that the 1YR % change may show strength.

Right now ACRIS sales are reflecting the steep drop in PENDING that my real time system shows for the summer..Recall WSJ.com article, "Home Sales Slide"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704594804575649123964004714.html

"The pace of co-op and condominium transactions in Manhattan continued to lag in November, setting the stage for the lowest rate of quarterly sales since the depths of the economic slowdown last year."

What is YET to be shown, is the relative rise from this low point that my pending shows in Oct-Dec...that will close and be counted in Jan-Feb-March as the higher pace of deals start to close. So, we have a very WEAK Q4 upcoming and data already suggests that Q1 should prove to be a nice rebound relative to the current weak quarter

swe, better keep those shades on cuz you been beaten up.....

Steve, our little puppy, keep rolling in your own filth for our amusement.

It is amazingly still funny.

Noah and I agree with each other.... current is awful, next year could show some relative strength (quick, look up the word "relative" steve).

And Noah even made it simple for you... "So, we have a very WEAK Q4". Steve wrong for the 20th quarter in a row!

;-)

we never had these real time tools before, so some will look at the most recent data available and others will look at what every media outlet and firm does, which is ACRIS sales and trends discovered from the verified closing prices and pace of closings relative to past quarters and same period 1 yr prior

W 67: So tell me again what bananas are trading for at the local grocer, while I get my weather maps for Nicaragua tweaked.

I'm signing in from beautiful Miami where the pundits claimed two years ago that prices couldn't possibly be lower than the 35% down (at the time.) Now that it is down 50% here, pundits are still claiming this is the bottom -----except the courts still can't process all the foreclosures. So the bottom is still not in. But buyers have real reasons to buy here now and many reasons are viable and will still deliver upside on their investment in coming years. So there are good buys here --really good buys-- and sales are up but it doesn't mean that the disaster that is Miami RE has ended.

All to say that I just want to back up W67's point that a more macro view will always trump a short term data point. Just because the Dow is up 84% since the bottom does not mean that our economy is not f'ked.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40681578/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

apt23: miami sucks! it deserves to be down even more.

ekar: I beg to differ. It is a fabulous international city where you can buy fabulous apartments overlooking the ocean with enough space to live like a real human for ridiculously low prices. And I can be here door to door in 5 hours. Art Basel is an incredible international event and though the theater is a little lame, the art, dance and music is amazing.

Enjoy the cold ekar. I plan to spend the day at the beach tomorrow -- 200 feet from my apartment.

SteveF - Increased number of sales doesn't necessarily mean market improvement, just that there is a greater willingness to trade. Are sellers capitulating or are buyers getting desperate? It will be interesting to see the corresponding price movement on this activity, otherwise it is mostly of interest to those who make their money on trading volume.

i am a happy subscriber to digs' device, and it dont smell like a bull to me
steveF, you are so blinded by your position, you cant smell shit

digs' realtime contracts signed is as he says: increasing based on typical seasonal patterns, through the fall, but at much lower levels than 09, 07 and prior (08 was a disaster)

and the rate for dec is on track with trend, but needs to be well ahead of track for dec to stay on seasonal trend, given business-shutdown during the holidays

swe bruised? pains me to say, given his politics, but he's been long stocks, flat real estate, and has dusted you plain and simple--

"Increased number of sales doesn't necessarily mean market improvement, just that there is a greater willingness to trade."

This is very true..Im working on an interesting chart that will substitute the CONTRACT DATE for the SALE DATE in regards to tracking price action. But we must always keep in mind that volume does not necessarily mean prices are rising, only a greater willingness and ability to buy and sell.

"But we must always keep in mind that volume does not necessarily mean prices are rising, only a greater willingness and ability to buy and sell."

I'd also add a "meeting of the minds," if you will, between buyers and sellers as to what pricing "should be." There are definite instances where there is a significant disconnect, which can lead to lots of stale listings, and basically a game of chicken between both factions.

thx UD, i have a question for you but have to go, I apprecaite your response though...makes some sense, thx

can always email me privately noah at you know what dot com

"swe bruised? pains me to say, given his politics, but he's been long stocks, flat real estate, and has dusted you plain and simple--"

Why thank you, wbottom. Things do feel pretty good these days.

Thanks for posting the blog entry Steve. Note the question mark ? At the end of the entry title. Yes it is a question as in will extended tax breaks, bonuses and interest rates combine to create a busy winter market? And yes, I speculate that they will. I have a client who is at GS who just on creased budget to purchase from $5m to $8-10m based on that $111m in bonus money that GS is paying. I also have some very close family and friends that are super jacked about their bonuses this year. Just saying. And everything I post is anecdotal as I see it on the street. You want real time data and analytics, Noah is the man!!! I love his platform and I and my agents use it daily at our firm.

"I have a client who is at GS who just on creased budget to purchase from $5m to $8-10m based on that $111m in bonus money that GS is paying. I also have some very close family and friends that are super jacked about their bonuses this year."

What world is this?

Few things more of a challenge to reality here than an agenda + an anecdote.

You're welcome Doug. Please keep posting your views. You, Noah, Greg Heym, TAP, etc are all we've got for unbiased commentary. Wish J Miller hadn't partnered up with a vulture. I used to visit him first, many years back.

"I have a client who is at GS who just on creased budget to purchase from $5m to $8-10m based on that $111m in bonus money that GS is paying."

Doug, that bonus is going to 7 top GS executives, and those are payouts determined from back in 2007 and 2009.

Are you saying that you client is one of the 7, or that your client heard about the fact that the top executives were being paid that and increased their budget for some reason? In either case, why is this news to them? It's been known for a full year now.

You don't need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind blows.
You don't need a broker to tell you the market blows...cause they wont.

I'm not saying who my client is because they wouldn't likely appreciate that. And I know that Noah shares my confusion by those who just refuse to accept anything bullish even from those of us with reputations for being bearish when it wasn't popular. And for the record, I'm only bullish short term because that is what I and my agents are experiencing at this moment in the market. I try to stick with what is going on which again is why my blog post posed a question.

doug, every season it seems as though brokers come out and proclaim that things are looking up. for some it may be hype, for others it may be situational, and as some point it may be *gasp* real.

i've noticed a lot more of the "it's looking up" crowd recently, although from what i've seen the actual numbers are still very mixed. people who sell tend to be naturally upbeat people. two years of negativity is really more than most real estate professionals can bear.

i'm not saying you're in that camp, but you did yourself no favors with that post.

LOL!!! I'm a big boy, I can take the heat! I know that a bullish broker is the kiss of death to some but fact is Our biz is thriving and when everyone was crying about how horrible the August market was, my team had our best August in nearly 20 years. This is a very transient city and despite market conditions, some brokers do OK.

BTW...I worked at a large firm in the city where weekly meetings were loaded with "it's looking up" talk which had a great deal to do with why I left.

in case i wasn't clear, i meant your post here, not on your own blog. the whole GS bonus BS thing. will not move the glut of overpriced studios and one bedrooms, which needs to happen before those people can move up.

i totally agree with you regarding the big firm indoctrination mentality. i've mentioned it here a number of times. very bright people come out of those meetings spouting really strange things they've heard from "experts" who have been brought in to convince them things are great.

but your own comment above is telling. "when everyone was crying about how horrible the August market was, my team had our best August in nearly 20 years." it may be due to your skill, but it definitely was situational.

Doug, I'm not questioning your stance on the market, and I'm not asking who the client is. I'm just asking for clarification on your clients' viewpoint that you brought up yourself.

I'm just confused by why the publication of a known deferred payout to the 7 top execs at GS would double a person's budget. If you're one of the 7, you'd have already known about your deferred compensation (not to mention that they all probably live in places well above $5M already). If you're not one of the 7, why would a known deferred payout of $25M to Lloyd Blankfein, say, make you double your budget? I'm just missing the relationship.

Seems we're on the same page aboutready. Situational is really all that I've got. Again, Noah is the data king but even the data isn't always in line with a specific firm's performance. My blog posts are always based on what is going on with my firm and my interpretation of mumblings around the industry (not always easy to interpret). They are opinions, anecdotes and conjecture indeed but always based on truth and reality. The antithesis of Noah's hard data.

I hear you inonada and completely understand from where you are coming. My client is not one of the 7 and I shouldn't have insinuated that the $111M had anything to do with them. I was being facitious. The client already knows what their bonus will be and it is significantly larger than anticipated and not as much restricted stock as originally expected either.

"You're welcome Doug. Please keep posting your views. You, Noah, Greg Heym, TAP, etc are all we've got for unbiased commentary."

Funny, I remember Steve screaming about Noah's bias last year...

"but fact is Our biz is thriving and when everyone was crying about how horrible the August market was, my team had our best August in nearly 20 years."

Then sounds like you are a horrible market indicator.

I think you're missing the point somewhereelse. This is a transient city where transactions happen despite price activity. If volume decreases, the experienced agents with a large referral base tend to do better and capture more of the market. One thing has nothing to do with the other in terms. Of market conditions versus the success of a broker or agent.

I agree... what you are talking about has little to do with the overall conversation. I don't care much about one particular broker's brag, I care about the market overall. Your anecdotes are useless in the discussion, and even you've noted they are a poor indication of the market.

and that, btw, *is* the point... which you missed.

And therefore you won't choose to read my blog which is cool. The "overall conversation" started with SteveF posting my blog entry and referred to it as bullish "data" and there is no data in this post at all. Believe it or not, my blog readers are curious to hear what I have to say but I completely appreciate that you prefer more hard data. That said, residential housing is not best explained with hard data only as no one can measure the emotional and psychological element that goes into a sale or purchase.

Dug? Have we met? I asked for comps on a $5mm purchase (already in contract yet to close) and I got 'u can't explain nyc re!'

It was akin to go with the force. Weird, do you have plastic surgery? That borker dude looked Pulled too tight, u know what I mean, right?

> The "overall conversation" started with SteveF posting my blog entry and referred to it as bullish "data" and
> there is no data in this post at all

Well, sounds like we complete agree some more... Steve and his fake "data". ;-)

> Believe it or not, my blog readers are curious to hear what I have to say but I completely appreciate that you
> prefer more hard data.

For market estimates, yes. I see value in your posts for other reasons, just not for what we're talking about here. I get that it was Steve's mistake crossing purposes. I get that others would follow your blog for the other reasons. Good for you.

> That said, residential housing is not best explained with hard data only as no one can measure the emotional
> and psychological element that goes into a sale or purchase.

If your goal is to "explain" purchases, fine, but that doesn't do anything for me. Your goal is to sell, maybe you care about the why so you can come up with a shpiel.

For folks buying with logic, price levels and $$ comparisons are what matters. If its a deal or not a deal, it doesn't matter to me how it got there.

Understood

"For market estimates, yes. I see value in your posts for other reasons, just not for what we're talking about here."

What exactly are we talking about here? It's (for better or worse) steveF's thread and seems to have devolved into broker bashing. So, yeah.

don't they all end up in broker bashing?
It's germany 1933 all over again!
Why is germany in such bad shape? the brokers
Who ruined the economy? the brokers
Who steals babies in the middle of the night for ghoulish purposes? the brokers

For the record...all that trouble in the middle east....the brokers

I get all the tough clients.....jeez my gs guy just throttled back ,his logic; rates are up more costly to borrow, Keith please revise offer lower. True story.

are my eyes deceiving me? did w67th finally get an official "shut the fuck up" from the brass at streeteasy. he's small and grey....

Thanks for the clarification, Doug.

Keith, you wanna know my take? The GS guy pushed the rates up himself trading on the GS desk. So he could lowball the offer. Then, after all is said and done, he's going to drop the rates. Damn GS trader, I bet he's a broker too.

Kidding aside, his response is quite logical. Somehow, I don't imagine the seller feeling the same.

dheddings is a douche re borker who failed miserably at his chosen profession he went to school for... .well I guess that makes you one of many...

merry xmas to all and to all a good nite.

Dheddings: Glad to see you posting here. Good points above, plus an excellent example of how to engage a heckler constructively.

Hi All,
This thread was started only to knock swe through the ropes...

it's not just Doug. C'mon bullishness is everywhere. For the love of God stop the spin. You people have altered the earth's rotation already. Enough. What don't you people undestand? Doug Heddings is telling it according to what he sees. Simple. I remember a little over a year and a half ago when he was bearish. The bulls didn't rip into him like you people.

classic 7 for $2.25MM, but i'm the heckler.... FLMAOZ

w67th: I was referring to the exchange between dheddings and somewhereelse, in which dheddings refused to take the provocative bait, and wound up engaging SWE in a civil discussion.

That $2.25MM sale at 473 WEA is intriguing, but the circumstances of an in-building swap cast some doubt on that transaction as an indicator of market conditions. Let's see what other information comes to light on that one.

"I was referring to the exchange between dheddings and somewhereelse, in which dheddings refused to take the provocative bait, and wound up engaging SWE in a civil discussion."

West81st, for better or worse, I think that underscores the difference between having your real name and profession out there and acting decently (as Doug does) vs being completely anonymous and spouting off insults and profanities just to be a troll (as the hecklers here do).

hey I'm the troll, let me play my part and you bj play the plot of the rational Neveille Chamberlain, appeasing the bubblecaust deniers all along till its too late.

funny how w81, is "surprised" a classic 7 can trade for $2.25MM, "but there must be something else!" bubblecaust denier mentality even as he posts it on the comps page..... he also started a thread of "best buys of 2009!"..... so call me skeptical when D Hedding, river (the true bubblecaust denier) Fsteve, kylewest... all chime in on HOW GREAT NYC RE IS ====>>>>>>> IF YOU HAVE A TEN YEAR HORIZON!

Well, i tell ya WTF knows in 10 yrs, But I GUARANTEE a sore azz kicking as Interest rates ratchets up in 25bps increments..... TRUST ME, 3 months from now we'll be talking about how the 75bp increase in the last year has created another "stalemate" in sales... and so on and so on...

and finally, REMEMBER I SAID $500psf, and that the WORST thing for NYC RE was an improving "economy" => higher interest rate. 75bps only. let's see what 75bps does, and just exrtrapolate to 75bps a quarter for 4 qtrs.... FLMAOz

THE BULLZ should be wishing for another financial meltdown.... you made your bed, me?, I'm hoping the REAL economy improves to finally wash away the bublecaust deniers and TRULY expose the RE professional for nuthin more than a mobile car salesman.

w67th, sorry, just sounds to me like you've got a martyr complex going on. I don't deny the bubble, and I have no motivation to persuade people either way - I think people who come here are adults and should be free to do as they please with their own money, whether they choose to rent or buy. And even if I played along with you and tried to scare or push people in a certain direction, I can pretty much guarantee it won't make much of a difference. I'm actually not bullish, but I think your antagonism is way over the top, even if you've occasionally got interesting things to say.

w67: I would LOVE to say the fair market value of 473 WEA #7A has dropped to $2.25MM. The problem is that the owners of #7A and #2B appear to have swapped apartments, and they both had a clear incentive to keep the prices as low as possible to lessen the tax bite. If that's not an extenuating circumstance, I don't know what is.

mokay bj..... whatevas. ppl are playing with real money and real lives... but okay, let's not have an opinion on an opinion board.

w81, how about a developer selling high to inside borkers to get comps for follow on sales? really you can't think of ONE extenuating circumstance, where a sale might be exaggerated on the upside? No no no, but THOSE are legit! This one is NOT.

Okay, so burning africans by millions is a war and burning jews is a holocaust. OK, I get your logic.

w67th, big difference between giving your opinion and ramming it down people's throats, insulting people who disagree, and, you know, comparing the real estate bubble to the Holocaust.

Bj. When I taught it was much easier to show concepts based On extreme examples of duopolies or monopolies. It's very hard to show 2% differential in prices based on different market structure than to show 40% price differential based on an oil shock and the resulting 400% improvement in oil efficiency. That would be the long term demand adjustment..... See much easier for ninnies to get.

We had 300% over on housing, we just had a 20% give back. Now either I'm the Fking fool or w81 is. Call me self serving but I'd like to not thinly of myself as a Fking fool in the area which I got an undergraduate degree and ivy MBA and 7yrs in banking and 25yrs of investing. Sorry, I am a Fking fool in love, cars and sometimes boats. But this bubble I saw, I parried and am mocking. When I stop mocking, you may buy.

"Hi All,
This thread was started only to knock swe through the ropes..."

And, once again SteveF just punched himself out while we watch laughing.

"The bulls didn't rip into him like you people."

Bulls didn't rip? We kidding with that.

Jeez, Steve, some days I think you're just pretending. You can't really be this dense, can you?

w67: I don't believe either of us is a fool. What's more, we see the same long-term trend. We differ slightly in our selection of data points, and the relevance we read into those we select. After 25 years in financial IT (and counting), I know a bit about spotting outliers; 473 WEA #7A bears a number of big red labels that read: "WARNING - POSSIBLE OUTLIER. PROCEED WITH CAUTION".

I posted that sale on IYCDMMWC-UWS because I though it was significant; but I'd like to see some confirmation before proclaiming $2.25MM the new normal for a prime WEA seven. I think we were there briefly eighteen months ago, and I think we'll get there again, quite possibly on our way to something lower; I'd just be surprised to learn that we're there already.

In w81st's defense, I think he posts solid comps regardless of bias and always points out special circumstances. Unlike some posters who post a comp that is up from 2007 and then say "oops, was there a renovation, I didn't notice" despite a pretty easy pair of clicks and some common sense, he always digs up and clearly states the surrounding circumstances. The fact that he dug it up on this one despite his personal biases shows his integrity, IMO.

So, w67th, keep it coming, keep it colorful, but I think you should cut w81st some slack on this one.

67, You sound like an absolute raving lunatic. You're a disgusting human being. Take a xanax or something. Glad you've been put in the penalty box. Next step-expulsion.

"w67: I don't believe either of us is a fool. What's more, we see the same long-term trend. We differ slightly in our selection of data points, and the relevance we read into those we select."

Its a never-ending game. Medians aren't perfect either, but there is at least enough consistency over longer periods to see general trends.

If you specifically want a 1 bed, 4 bath condop with mouldings and a 70 foot hot tub, I supposed you can try and create all the perfect comps... but you might just want to find the ones you like, check pricing, and maybe make offers if you think you're close to what you think is right. Yes, every apartment is specific, so you can go on forever with the debate.... but I say just go with the approach that keeps it a little more sane.

SWE, when SE first came out with their index, I was surprised by the extent to which medians over-stated things in Manhattan. Miller Samuel has a 4.4x increase in median price 1995 to present, while SE's same-home resale index puts it at 2.6x. This means that the median home sold in Manhattan is now 70% bigger/better/fancier than 15 years ago.

inonada, you could argue homes were undervalued here in 95 (just as they're overvalued now).

inonada - Are the Miller Samuel's numbers you indicate on total inventory or condo only? SE's index is condo only.

Perhaps, but I'm not sure how that relates to my post. I was just comparing the change in median price (4.4x) vs. same-home resales (2.6x) and what it means for the change in quality of the median home sold (1.7x).

As someone who works at an I bank, I can tell you that virtually every data point I have (other bankers) indicates expectations are down from about 10-25%, depending. Optimism is not in the air among those of us in finance and/or with some $$. Lunch today with a group of bankers - negative on Hamptons and Manhattan real estate.

Good point, angler7. I had used the condo+coop values from Miller Samuel, but I should have used the condo values. It doesn't make too much of a difference as condos saw a 4.5x (rather than 4.4x) increase in median vs. the 2.6x on same-home resales.

Cool, thanks!

So putz, after the fucking mess you folks created, we're supposed to trust BANKERS???

W67: I love your color -- it keeps me in check every time I salivate over an apt. And I agree with your pessimistic outlook for bubble aftermath in that history has shown the necessity for reversion to the mean. But I don't think W81 is your proper foil. When I looked at apts with him he was extremely cleared eyed and forthcoming about the bubble and the future and moreover, he was extremely knowledgeable about current pricing. It was actually uncanny. I'm sure when RE gets to your $500 psf, W81 will be equally honest about comps -- and outliers-- then too.

Okay..... Went a little too far, apt23. My apologies to the re gods.

Anyhowz, putz don't listen to jimnutz, he's just sore. In all the wrong places.

Jimhones - funny you should criticize bankers! As a broker,how would you get paid if their balls weren't in your mouth?

Bubbles usually pop. Pops are violent and quick. We've been in a decline for a couple years. RE expensive? Yes. Bubble? Where's the evidence? Comparison to mass murder of over 10 million people? Is that appropriate?

Chart for the Bubble:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/home-prices-may-drop-another-25/62049/?source=patrick.net#toolsTop

Has no one on this board ever read a humorist? I believe that w67's bubblecaust reference is a non too subtle reference to those who irrationally choose to deny -- against all facts to the contrary. Jeez. I'm a bleeding heart and I don't find any thing at all insensitive about the reference. It is funny. The subtle quotient on this board seems to have imploded in a black hole. Get a life.