Pending Sales point to leg down

I think it's too early to tell. I just might be "normal" seasonality vs. 2009's back-loaded numbers. Right now, the numbers indicate a slight weakness in price and volume, but if the market picks up in the spring, it will be explained away as a "normalization" and a return to seasonality after the wild ride of 2008 and 2009. If prices keep declining through the next 6 months (even as slowly as they have in the last 3 months), then we'll have a double dip.

Thank you....that makes sense

If the economy actually takes hold here, there will be no double dip.

what? where have you guys been? We have had reflation(Noah's word-I like it) this past year not price declines. We have no inventory and economic recovery so all odds point to Spring further reflation(like that word!)

Prices will go up when mortgage rates go up. Duh.

It also seems that median prices havent dropped more than the 7% just because there is a much higher percentage of closings in the 2 bedroom and up as compared to 09

MANHATTAN ACTIVE INVENTORY vs PENDING SALES trends for the past 1YR:

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Pending+Sales&s2=Active&mindt=01%2F05%2F2010&maxdt=01%2F05%2F2011&t=Market+Trends&interval_mindt=2010%2F01%2F05

hey noah- what does active compared to pending tell us. To me pending shows where activity was in the last quarter. Active tells us where prices might go in the next quarter (high inventory, lower prices).

Does a 12% drop in pending from last year point to 12% less deals perhaps closing in Q1?

Also, since inventory is higher now that last year by 8%, and pending is lower by 12% does that suggest Q1 will have downward pressure on prices? Of course there are many other factors putting pressure in either direction, I just want to know if I am reading those two metrics correctly. thank u

we are just looking at a measure for both the pace of Manhattan supply & demand. Pending is real time and is the pool of listings that go from active to contract signed, and are awaiting closing. It loses in the tail end daily and gains in the front end daily. Viewing active against pending will allow you to know whether or not supply is shrinking due to demand, or perhaps due to listings being taken off market (which is our OFF MARKET charts)..

The % decline in pending will lead ACRIS sales by about 3 months. Maybe slightly less. Its all relative based on the initial start point. To get an idea of how Q1 acris sales may do, look at 1QTR chart of pending sales to see if the pipeline of deals awaiting closed has risen or fallen. Expect ACRIS to follow that in time.

Got it. Thanks. I had been meaning to ask you also about what seems like a drastic drop in off market, 47%, in the last year. Especially in December last year the off market seemed to increase dramatically. But nothing really that big this year. Any thoughts why? What does that mean to you when off market drops so much like this?

It seems like there is also a significant drop in new listings, combined with. So sellers are not listing, but the ones who had are keeping theirs on. So it seems people thought listing in the past 2 months was not smart, but those who already were listed HAD to keep their listings on.