Will NYC real estate prices increase this Summer?

In general, I'd say it's pretty unlikely. Economy's not strong enough. I imagine there's pent-up demand, but I don't think that's enough to boost prices.

My theory is that real estate prices will increase because of inflation and decrease in unemployment. We may not see a pop but maybe a creep up. Inflation that impacts real estate pricing will erase a lot of debt and make mortgages above water again. The banks got their bailout and inflation will bailout home owners.

This is easy. New list A properties will be higher because everyone knows the pickings are few. It's not supply and demand as much as it's supply and demand FOR THAT! Vanilla will continue to be flat to weak as the submarkets continue to move apart. B is no longer equal to A minus C as it was inside the bubble.

I’m curious as well. Brokers and development seem to think prices will go up starting in the Spring – but don’t they make that prediction most of the time?

Wall St bonus pool for 2010 paid in 1Q 2011 will be a big factor here. My sense is the disappointing results in 4q 2010 and the negative impact on bonus pools will keep any rise muted.

That said, advertising, media tourism and fashion are picking up in NYC in a big way and will produce stronger employment.

Don't listen to the brokers! Be tactical and bid as your own best judgment tells you...

aren't they high enough..

isn't SE index up already?

Think flattish as the prices are already up a few percent from 2009.

It will depend on whether the Republicans manage to do away with Fannie and Freddie, and change the Qualified Residential Mortgage's rule to a. 20% downpayment. If we get non-bank mortgage originators out of the game, and adopt Texas-style rules, we could see dramatically higher mortgage rates, especially for amounts over $407,000. It's not like the GOP cares about the bi-coastal areas that benefit the most from the higher conforming amounts.

With interest rates higher and the enormous unsold inventory in many newly built building in NYC I don't see prices going higher. Brokers could not sell a single property if they said prices are flat or going down - they can only get a sale if they make people think prices will be higher, they are absolutely not to be listened to on this point

with the way 2010 ended, Id say it will be fairly easy to beat Q4 numbers at some point. Might have to wait for Q2-2011 though..its not real time, but its what people follow

Skyrokk has it right. The smart money is renting at this time.

I'm with Spinnaker on this one. In my coop, no one, and I mean no one, listed their apartments in 2010. Since January 1, lots of units have been listed. One - which had a super nice reno and was immaculately staged - didn't even stay on the market 2 weeks and got peak pricing (I talked to the owners). The nice but not prime ones are going around 5% off peak. Then there are the real s*holes, which are just sitting/have prices being slashed.

tech, I agree with you--in my own niche I've recently been seeing properties go into contract very quickly after hitting the market, in one or two cases (that I'm aware of) having multiple offers and going to best-and-final. The current scenario is markedly different from what I was seeing a year ago.

The smart money is renting, sure. Lotsa not-smart money out there, though. As I have stated in lots of old posts, I believe some people buy real estate because they are owners by nature. They can't help themselves. (I speak as one of the afflicted.)
Tina
(Brooklyn agent)

> Think flattish as the prices are already up a few percent from 2009.

Depends which part of 2009.

Going by Miller Samuel numbers, we are lower in Q4 2010 than 2 of the 4 quarters of 2009. Studios are actually at their lowest point since before the crash, and one bedrooms are actually lower than any point of 2009.

Here is the median manhattan overall:

Year Quarter All
2007 1 835,000
2007 2 895,000
2007 3 864,397
2007 4 850,000
2008 1 945,276
2008 2 1,025,000
2008 3 928,263
2008 4 900,000
2009 1 975,000
2009 2 835,700
2009 3 850,000
2009 4 810,000
2010 1 868,000
2010 2 899,000
2010 3 914,000
2010 4 845,000

This summer prices soar as the fleeing Egyptians race for the relative safety of NYC.

Nice to see some of that money finding it's way back home.

Yeah, those Egyptian Carpenters... of course...

somewhereelse: The Italians are retiring to Manhattan but they aren't always buying.
The summer (spring and fall too) vacation renters there have dropped off. Many nice places for sale there,at good prices - but sales are slow.

I know of a few empty-nesters/widows who want to live in Manhattan. They are swapping their nice Italian properties for Manhattan apartments. I've had several offers and I'm considering it.

One lady wants to live in N.Y.C. but not in Manhattan. She likes Brooklyn and Riverdale. She doesn't need anything fancy. It doesn't have to be a new development.
I'm thinking that maybe I should sell my condo, buy a place in Brooklyn or Riverdale and swap with her.

There's a unit on a lower floor, same line in my building that finally got sold after several price-chops. He got $769K.

Where in Brooklyn and/or Riverdale should I look to get the best deal?

Bensonhurt in Brooklyn is an Italian Haven.

sledgehammer: I know. She doesn't need to be surrounded by Italian people. She could stay in Italy for that! There aren't any condo buildings in Bensonhurst, mostly single family homes.

She wants a doorman and laundry in the building. So do I.
Close to public transportation. Riverdale may be better for that.
I won't be staying there very often and would be happy to live in Italy year-round.

I paid cash for my condo. Got it at a good price.
So I can sell it, buy something at a good price in Brooklyn or Riverdale for cash, and bank the difference.

> Bensonhurt in Brooklyn is an Italian Haven.

Italian-American. Very different.

And nowhere close to what it used to be. A lot of greeks, russians, asian moving in....
Net outflow of Italians.

Many moved to Staten Island and Jersey because they could not compete with the new money coming in.

I think the upper end of the market will go up for a few quarters. The wealthy have made big money in the equity markets. They have no where to park their money so I think RE will be a natural outlet. The middle range of the market will be flat since buyers will be concerned about mortgage deduction laws and rising taxes -- plus the outlook for flat RE for years. The low end of the market will stall/be flat to down.

So no $500psf?

From the Chelsea Enclave WSJ article today:

The Chelsea Enclave has become the first large Manhattan condo of the post-Lehman era to completely sell out ... Other buildings held up by the downturn are hoping to relaunch sales this spring.***

Of course, there were multiple bids on the lowest-priced property in Tribeca or something like that, so, of course there's no inventory.

"Many moved to Staten Island and Jersey because they could not compete with the new money coming in."

Absolutely. Its not nearly as Italian as it was when I was growing up.

Yes, Bensonhurst has changed since John Travolta strutted down 86th St.
Night fever, night fever...

somewhereelse: Lafayette H.S. or Dewy?