Corcoran: Buy RIGHT Now

she was saying buy in 07/08, but at that point she was telling everyone that you can't lose. the first part remains the same, they just change the reason.

Is the market poised to skyrocket? [I love "poise".]

*Is the market poised to skyrocket? [I love "poise".]*

why yes Alan it most likely is...how quickly the humans forget.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/realestate/16cov.html

By "market" skyrocketing, I meant sales prices, not inventory, Clown Prints.

Wasn't she saying to buy in Red Hook at the peak? At that time, arguably the only property you wanted to buy would have been in better neighborhoods or buildings, not emerging neighborhoods. The problem with this woman is that she gets attention because she successfully built and sold a brokerage. So what? Does this make her an expert on real estate investment? She's obviously a leader, but it's not the same skill set. Buying because there is "cheap" money didn't work out the last time for property investors. Going into debt is never "cheap" unless your income is secure, and even then, properties may get a serious value haircut if financing gets "expensive".

here's somthing for ya...Manhattan development site prices bounce back to boom-time highs

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/manhattan-development-site-prices-bounce-back-to-boom-time-highs-according-to-eastern-consolidated-data

Well, now, to be fair to Ms. Corcoran, there is a part of her usual line she has omitted this time around. "I'm always looking for buildings to buy in [this area/this building/that block/this month]. So apparently this is either not THAT much of a miracle, or she's run out of cash from having bought so many buildings herself.

she omitted that statement because she knew that she'd gag while saying it. she made enough mistakes, but not dumb enough to buy now.

"She was saying buy in 07/08..."

And who were the cretins who followed her advice and bought at the tippy-toppity peak???

Oh YEAH - SteveF BOUGHT IN 08!!!!!

Fuckin HI-larious.

Why would anyone listen to either of those buffoons?

Some things never change. Cardinals are back. Tulips in bloom on Park Avenue. Brokers say there's never been a better time to buy. You know it's spring in NYC.

What else you expect them to say? The Mets think they will win the pennant. The administration says we are winning the wars on Iraq and Afghanistan. I believe "no time better than now" is copyrighted by the Board of Realtors. At least this is a "regular" real estate miracle. Cannot wait for the "amazing" or "incredible" miracle.

I thought Barbara was more believable on Shark Tank than she is in the real estate fortune telling business.

People love to pillory dottie what's-her-face for being a liar about real estate, but corc-baby for me takes it beyond just cheerleading - "I'm always looking for more buildings to buy in that area." I've even heard her quoted as saying that about Melrose, South Bronx. That is a lie. No one is "always looking to buy more buildings" in any area. That is several degrees different from just saying, "it's a great time to buy," because the latter statement is an opinion, not a statement of intent.

have any of you ever built then sold a company that has become a brand that you named after yourself?

are any of you widely known for being widly successful at anything? (except for envious scorn?)

discuss.

Didn't Babs take a bath on a building in Red Hook? That she bought at the peak of the market?

At least she puts her money where her mouth is.

Maybe Barbara is wrong every so often, but check out what a fool apt23 made of herself on this thread:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25684

Brokers are liars.

Every last one of them.

No scruples, no integrity, not a whiff of regard for their fellow man.

Lump em in with car salesmen and three-card monty purveyors. They're all about equally scrupulous (and educated, for that matter).

have any of you ever built then sold a company that has become a brand that you named after yourself?

are any of you widely known for being widly successful at anything? (except for envious scorn?)

discuss.

wait. because barbara corcoran founded a successful brokerage i should take her advice on when to buy real estate? what i find so funny is that she lies so boldly. "record low prices." what can she possibly mean by that? prices are higher than they were from 1776-2005. they are also higher than they were in 2009. is she referring to some sort of rent-to-buy ratio? that's obviously false too--in the 1970s it was far, far cheaper to buy than it was to rent, and in every decade until the last one the rent-to-by ratio was far more favorable.

and then there is stevef, who agree with barbara corcoran's statement (that prices are a record lows) even though he has spent the last five years claiming that prices have been going up. that's some funky math going on there, steve. i love how he backs up her statement that prices are at record lows by citing an article that claims that prices are at record hghs. hmmm.

> "record low prices." what can she possibly mean by that? prices are higher than they were from 1776-2005.

Oh you sure got her.

huntersburg, isn't that the point? her comments are so prima facie absurd that all you can do is sit back and scratch your head.

maly said: "Some things never change. Cardinals are back. Tulips in bloom on Park Avenue. Brokers say there's never been a better time to buy. You know it's spring in NYC."

Ah, I needed a good laugh.

July, 2008:

" Barbara Corcoran was on Larry King Live last night as part of a panel on the mortgage mess (transcript here). The founder of the Corcoran Group, now an author and TV personality, couldn't understand why more people weren't now buying homes and quickly:

[Barbara] 'I think you ought to be out there shopping the market now. You have three times more inventory. Prices have been reduced by over 15 percent in many markets, some markets 66 percent. And there's cheap money still. Why wouldn't you be shopping right now? I can't imagine why people are sitting at home in their La-Z-Boy chairs'..."

http://www.observer.com/2008/real-estate/barbara-corcoran-get-la-z-boy-and-go-buy

People were buying long before Babs said go. For those who bought, Babs words mean nothing. For those who have been looking, babs words mean nothing. For those on the fence babs words must be a guiding light. Now you are free.

Spinny - hilarious! Babs has ALWAYS said "go". When has she not? It's a constant. She just finds different ways to sound like an idiot. Kinda like SteveF - the guy has ALWAYS said it's a good time to buy. But I suppose if I had bought at the very peak, like SteveF, any other time would indeed look like a great time to buy.

beatyer..studio condo comps are near peak levels now, so it was a great time to buy during the "boom" Just think you've paid off 3 1/2 years of principal as well as all those sweet tax deductions off your ordinary income.

When Babs finally shut up, I took it as a sign and bought.

"Oh YEAH - SteveF BOUGHT IN 08!!!!!

Fuckin HI-larious.

Why would anyone listen to either of those buffoons?"

rotfl

AAAAHAHAHA

"studio condo comps are near peak levels"

Oh SteveF...

of course they are...

::pats SteveF's back::

Does this get ANY better, folks?

maybe this would have done better if it had been a studio rather than a one bedroom. as a studio it would have fetched at least $600k.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/514510-condo-56-pine-street-financial-district-new-york
10/21/2005Previous Sale recorded for $560,037.
10/16/2008Previously Listed by KG Properties at $695,000.
03/18/2010KG Properties Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $675,000.
04/16/2010Listed by KG Properties at $589,000.
08/06/2010Price decreased by 2% to $575,000.
11/03/2010Listing sold.
03/03/2011Sale recorded for $545,000.

maybe not.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/543259-condo-212-east-70th-street-lenox-hill-new-york
11/07/2007Previous Sale recorded for $420,810.
07/29/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $299,000.
09/06/2010Listing entered contract.
02/24/2011Listing sold.
02/24/2011Sale recorded for $320,000.

AR - that is some funny stuff.

Maybe 24% down is the new "near peak".

Stand-up comedy using comps! You don't see that every day.

Ok call me dense but what exactly does a fidi sale at 10% above an 09 comp and a 864/sqft short sale studio tell us?

> Does this get ANY better, folks?

SteveF has been great for laughts for a good two years now...

Dense

I am pasting in below a link to a Business Week interview with Barbara C. from 2005 in which she displays her skills as a RE prophet:

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/mar2005/nf20050315_6227_db093.htm

If the link doesn't work, just search for "barbara corcoran" "business week" 2005 and it will come up.

Thanks general. I'm particularly impressed by her explanation for growing demand:

"I think it's a much scarier world that we live in. When kids are scares, where do they run? They run home. People are staying home more."

Wow. What can you say to that?

When Bab's said downtown Detroit would be the next 'IT' location because the movie 8 Mile will do for it what Ghost did for Tribeca I was so mad. At the time I was eyeing a pretty burnt-out loft with a Winsdor view for the unpaid tax bill and before I knew it all these crazies had bid it up to the stratosphere. They were all Babs this, Babs that.

I resemble that remark AR.

"When kids are scares, where do they run? They run home. People are staying home more." Ah, yes, that post-9/11 logic. In that sense, Corcoran was very in tune with a country that lost its senses.

isn't she married to a military guy and they have a litter of like 7 kids? alpha broads like that rule. you go girl! hustle hustle, make that money!

Lowery - her comment, which was in 2005, is asinine on so many levels it's hard to know where to start.

First off, the argument "When kids are scared, where do they run? They run home" is so droolingly stupid I can't believe it was uttered by an adult.

But to tale it one step further (and I can't believe I am doing so)... Do scared children only run to owned homes and not to rented homes?"

I'll await the Corcoran market study on this particular point.

well.....ACTUALLY, the trend of an alarmingly large number of adult children moving back home has been well documented. so, while her words at the time may have been odd and stupid, she turned out to be right!

She's right on about low prices,and a well stocked inventory for every market EXCEPT manhattan and the rest of NYC. We all know the inventory blows in NYC. NYC prices are really not that much lower than they were at the peak Mortgage rates are good. Taxes,condo fees and coop fees have sky rocketed in NYC and offset the mild decline in purchase price.

beat - this is actually a very interesting comment to dissect - lucille says that the remark was actually quite relevant, with lots of adults running home to their parents' homes - if that is the sense that the woman meant her comment in, then it does not support her argument that real estate will only go up - if adult children run home to live with their parents, they are neither buying nor renting, etc.

But I think she meant it in a much more global sense, and the comment is a perfect illustration of the voluntary naivete and idiocy of American groupthink, of which the last RE bubble was only one example. It smacks of amateur psychology. And as long as people like her rake in lots of dough, they have millions of adoring followers who hang on their every word as though it's some kind of deeply meaningful hidden truth revealed to us through ..... whatever. And it takes stupidity and ignorance to sop up that kind of cynical, shallow, self-serving arrogant statement, "when kids are scared, where do they run?"

Personally, I don't believe a word of the bios of Cinderella stories like Ms. Corcoran. Of course she's a shrewd businesswoman, and probably has a dynamic, inspiring personality and many other good traits. But I think she's a bald faced liar, and that she did not start her successful career by borrowing a few hundred bucks from her boyfriend, etc., etc., any more than I was brought to my parents by the stork. It's a little like saying Donald Trump is a self-made millionaire. Not quite.

no no! i didn't mean to suggest that she had predicted one of the fall outs of the credit/housing bubble being adults running back to their parents. the words she spoke at that time in that context were strange and stupid. but removing the context, the words themselves proved to be right. that's all. what exactly do you mean when you say you don't believe her bio? i don't really know anything about her, except she's from bergen county from a big family and is married to either a military guy or possibly a former cop, and they have, let's say 5-7 children. she doesn't have to be a cinderella who started out with "a few hundren bucks" to be admirable. she has a shitload of kids and started an enterprise so profitable sucessful, she was able to parlay that success and recognition into being a legitimate media personality. she did all this while, and to avoid a cultural war about "mothering" and "parenting", let's just say carrying and giving birth to 7 (SEVEN) children. yeah, that's pretty damn impressive. i couldn't do that, and neither could anyone else here. people like that are 1 in a million and they deserve to be recognized for that.

Jake makes some excellent points. Now is NOT the time to buy in Manhattan. Despite the biggest housing bubble in history, prices in Manhattan are not very much lower than peak. The quality of inventory at this time is incredibly poor. Transaction costs & fees are increaing. Monthly maintenance and taxes are on the upswing with no end in sight. Mortgage rates are low but higher down payments are required and lenders are increasingly tight with credit.

There seem to be a number of people on this site who bought in 2007 and 2008 and are desperately trying to pump the market. When I hear that kind of stuff, I automatically think they're desperately trying to sell.

farquhar, the must sellers were desperately trying to sell in late'08-early'09. Might be some still who are in trouble but that's normal in any market. Most owners/landlords know that the pendulum has swung back to a sellers/landlord market. Plus, inventory will be extremely tight come these next 2-4 years(credit crisis/tight lending related). So why sell now when supply is drying up and the economy is strong and getting stronger?

>sjtmd:Jake makes some excellent points. Now is NOT the time to buy in Manhattan. Despite the biggest housing bubble in history, prices in Manhattan are not very much lower than peak. The quality of inventory at this time is incredibly poor.<

True but odds are that inventory will get tighter these next few years. No future supply dictates that prices will continue to increase past peak prices.....that's my bet.

Weather is awesome. Have a great weekend SE users! Spring starts this Sunday @ 7:21pm. Enjoy.

steveF - I'm not sure the poplulous is ready for your fait accompli. I'm not saying it won't happen though, and I'm sure there already some examples emerging. NWT and W81 probably know for sure. The IYCDMMBC index is at an all time low.

> that's my bet.

Then its official. Anytime SteveF bets, the exact opposite happens....

Farquhar - precisely. Let me guess - you're talking about SteveF!

Ashamed to admit I have been looking on and off for almost a decade now (I did stop looking from 2005-2008 -- in retrospect a smart move) and now sorry I didn't snatch up something in mid-2009 BUT I continue to get regular 'check in' phone calls from mortgage brokers and my accountant/lawyer tells me sales are way down (also confirmed by the title search company he deals with). That's where the rubber hits the road Babs. Inventory generally stinks and the ask prices where I look in Brooklyn are mostly insane. I see previous sale prices and think the crazy ask 'makes sense' as the seller doesn't want to take a bath. But why should I 'jump in' as a buyer - that would be plain stupid.

well, there's another thread on this forum where a FSBO seller asked a trade practice question, and the answers seem to confirm that either Corcoran, the biz, has a unique practice or a listing agent employed by said biz, in attempting to get him to list his property, used a bald-faced lie to convince him to list with them - but that's just one person in the organization, not Ms. C. I tend to knee jerk defend real estate brokers when SE people slam them as a genre and savage their integrity, but Corcoran the person and the business of the name seem to be an extreme example of aggressive psychological tactics like the one referred to in another thread here - I could not resist mentioning that quote of Barbara C's "I'm always looking for buildings to buy myself in that area" because it is so manipulative and in a dishonest way. It's not telling the customer what they want to hear; it's more like selling the Brooklyn Bridge (".. I know the owner and can set something up for you ..")

Beaterputz, Yes, SteveF is the most obvious such character, but I see it with many others as well.

I wouldn't buy right now. I would buy in the mid to late summer, when the open houses are full of tumbleweeds and the (few) properties left on the market are wondering where the spring buyers went. I wouldn't wait until 2012, because mortgage rates will start ticking up and every percentage point adds $$$ to your payment.

I think by summer, we will see a slight down tick on the NYC market all around. That's as close as we're going to get on a double-dip. I think the NYC "recovery" is a bit exaggerated, quite frankly, and it needs a correction. $1000 (and more!) a square foot is too much for many of these places.

@FOO For real data, check urbandigs.com.