Signs of a Double-Dip Have Emerged

and so do you think we will hit $500psf this year, w67?

Yawn, absofuckinglutely.

Back on topic, nyc re is toast. 2009 lows were never lows. Just a momentary stop to $500psf.

So bsexposer. U r down $80k one day, probably $250k over the last 10 trading days. So am I to understand, I can replicate your portfolio for 25% off? Do you know what $250k compounded for 20 yrs gets you? And btw I had zero beta as compared to urbandigs/exposer/stevehjx. Sometimes buying a 50 footer, a 997tt and taking your kids to Europe while sitting in cash can pay some serious dividends. So r u buying on the dips?

All this credit expansion did was get ppl that should be shining shoes to think somehow they could be instant $millionaires..... Now pls, just go back to shining shoes. But this is america, go double long equities tomorrow cause you 'can't' make money following the herd, right?

This to me is the most telling:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44019510

Bank of New York charging customers to hold their CASH. In other words, they're awash with liquidity with NO PLACE TO GO, and they have to insure it, and it costs them money.

It's the margin I've been talking about for months unwinding. I think this isn't going to be pretty.

So, how long now before we see some serious price cuts on quality properties in Manhattan? All this cash w/ no place to go.....

"U r down $80k one day, probably $250k over the last 10 trading days"

Guess again. In any event, I am still up 9% since the market peaked in 2007, whereas the S&P is down 14% (including dividends) during the same period. So it's all good.

"Now pls, just go back to shining shoes"

Maybe you should try working for a living - if you can find a job, that is - it's good for your character.

Character doesn't come from leaching off of stock mkt gyrations and credit bubbles.... But do go on about having a 3 stk portfolio with a beta that is 20x the s&p and being up against your benchmark by 3x. And think of how much youd be up if you just kept shining shoes.

11 euros for a hot chocolate. X2. 15euro cafe American. X2. Park hyatt Paris. 1200 euros a nite. See what $80k not lost on a bubblicious manipulated Stk mkt gets you.

See dollars are used for living...... Actual real life living. Gamble it away and it's like gambling away a life that could have been lived.

But back to you. Are you doubling down? Borrowing against 401k? It seems to me, ppl are jamming the exit doors and your religion requires you to open that entrance door full and jump in wo knowing why the ppl are running for the exits. Good luck with that, I'll light a candle at notre dame for you bsexposer. I really will.

It's official!

"Tune In to CNBC Tonight at 8pm ET for a Special Report, "Markets in Turmoil.""

Not a word about "Markets in Bubble" on the 35% annual way up.

yeh but does it really count if ur a bear 100% of the time..

whether ur bear or bull ull be right at some point..

ie i was a bear in 2008 and i was right.. the dow hit 8k, and i was wrong.. and i was a bear the whole time when it rode up to 12k.. and i was wrong..

"with a beta that is 20x the s&p"

Beta is irrelevant if you don't buy on margin or use leverage (options) - I couldn't care less what my beta is. Nor should I care.

"See dollars are used for living...... Actual real life living. Gamble it away and it's like gambling away a life that could have been lived"

Hmmm...what exactly have I "gambled away". I own the exact same stocks I owned yesterday and I'll still receive the same dividends for the remainder of 2011 as was the case yesterday. Who cares what the spot (market) price is when I have no plans to sell for years? If I owned a house would I care about short term market price fluctuations if I wasn't going to move for 10 years? Of course not. Also, I have plenty of $$$ I need to live and have a good time, pay the rent, etc., since I have a full time job that pays well (knock on wood).

"But back to you. Are you doubling down?"

No - I don't use leverage or borrowed money. Thanks for asking though.

"All this cash w/ no place to go....."

That's one way RE could go - the place to park cash. Maybe not.

Bsexposer. The way you talk, you remind of the shoeshine guy at world trade concourse level, back in the Merrill lynch days. Talking about stks, bonds, commodities...... But still 'working' for a living. So if I gave you $1.2mm in cash, and you have so much faith in the equity mkts, all you'd do is zero leverage and get me 4.5% div yield on con Ed? I can do that today wo a 1% fee. Hell, it'd take me $9.99. Thatz your secret? Pick 3 dividend yielding Stk in THIS mkt and bury your head in Buffett's soft bosoms? R u serious?

Seriously, get an education. S&P beta is unleveraged the last I checked. Up 7% from 2007, what is that 1.8% annual compound yield? That fking includes dividends? R u fking kidding me? I've did better on my reits. Hrpt.

If i interviewed you to manage my money, you'd go home crying. Seriously. Stick to your well paying day job playa. Off to watch Maria bartolomo w/ the CNBC 8pm special. Her azz gets bigger and wider every year. It's like watching Jabba the hut, with a skinny face.

Oh 30 euro gin and tonic next to the fireplace. C u there playas.

"yeh but does it really count if ur a bear 100% of the time."

I was a brief bull when the Dow was between 8,000 and 10,500. I thought that it might make 11,500 with a strong wind. Never did I expect 12,500 - and never should it have been allowed to get there.

Right now mine eyes are on oil. It hits $60 - where it should be - I start being more optimistic. QEII caused a massive bubble in all commodities, which is what caused this slowd0own. They should have just let well-enough alone.

The proof is in the pudding - liquidity ain't the problem, b/c the Big Boys are PAYING banks to store their cash.

Insane.

Hey btw, playa. Buy buying 3 dividend paying Stk, you've given up downside risk and UPSIDE gain..... But you don't seem to understand that's what you'll be missing when the mkt finally capitulates and rallies. You'll be sitting on con Ed with 5% yield while apple jumps 30% in a year. But you're smart. I'm sure you KNOW what you are doing.

Again it's like watching a train crash in slow motion

>the Big Boys are PAYING banks to store their cash.
Insane.

Certainly not what one would expect.

Bottom line...after today will real estate in Manhattan finally come down??

w67: Park Hyatt Paris-Vendôme? Can ya give a review/report?

Are you heading south?

Have a great time

ottom line...after today will real estate in Manhattan finally come down??
*****************************

A few more days like today and people will become more cautious, especially anyone with incomes tied to wall st

RS, after today the calls to the brokers start - GET ME OUT OF THIS.

Unless there is some sort of magical economic news, the ride is down - there will be up days, but the overall trend is down. Too many margin calls....

I don't see the retail investor margined up. Small guy has not been back since 2008. The guys who earn money on equity trading desks however may become a little nervous.

More Socialism from die-hard capitalists:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44025827/

Predicting Fed intervention to save the stock market.

Not happening. Imagine: The Bank of Japan is intervening in the currency market to stop the yen from appreciating; the ECB is intervening in the bond market to prevent Spain and Italy from collapsing. The Fed is intervening in the bond market to keep interest rates low.

And - none of it works. Doing more of it won't work more; it will work less.

w67 - the FACTS are as follows (whether you want to accept them or not):

1. Since Oct 2007 (when I actively started investing my $$$), I am up 9.3% (not 7%) and the S&P [with dividends reinvested] is down about 14% during the same period. During the entire time I've had a full time job that has nothing to do with investing. So, yes, I've beaten the S&P by an aggregate of 23% (or 5.5% annualized) in my spare time. I know, pathetic.

2. As of today's closing prices, one of my holdings yields over 9%, one yields a little over 1% and the 3rd doesn't pay a dividend. If I owned stocks like ConEd, I wouldn't have been down 7.5% today. Duh.

3. I may lack in natural talent, brains or luck compared to 90% of the rest of the world, but I won't ever lack in (a) balls and (b) sheer effort. Every time I fuck up, I learn something - so the more I fuck up, the more I learn and the better I get. And I'll never stop trying to succeed - at least, until I'm dead.

Have a nice day.

"BTW, you have a very bad habit of taking something another person has said, twisting it into a completely different statement and then telling the person that their statement (which they never said in the first place) was wrong. Why do you do this??? What's the point?"

BSexposer, not two hours later, Steve writes:

"The same arseholes now posting on the gold thread are the same ones who thought that real estate was impervious to downfalls (or Dow-falls, maybe - HAHAHAHA!)."

Amazing.

"See dollars are used for living...... Actual real life living."
"Park hyatt Paris. 1200 euros a nite."

Dunno. 1200 euros per night on a hotel room is kinda worse than gambling. It's flushing money down the toilet (probably a really nice Toto or something). Must be a hell of a minibar though. But seriously, you're in Paris - how much actual time do you spend in the hotel room?

w67, remember to stop in for your gin&tonic at the plaza athenee, playa

also, hotel costes (239 rue St-Honore)

the mrs. might like checking out castel (15 Rue Princesse Paris), it's an old timer but something one should still see.

maybe earlier while already in the area you can check out be dissapointed in brasserie lipp (151,boulevard Saint-Germain), the world famous hopelessly average joint people pretend is something special and inder-y. you'll like watching the funny arab oil wives and their minders.

china club still good, i've heard (50 Rue de Charenton Paris)
chez michou is decent cabaret (80 rue des Martyrs )

wish i could tell you where the cool kids are going these days, but someone else might be better equipped to do that. last time i was cool in paris all the rich young gypsie went to this club/lounge that all white glittery decour, completely flaking on the name but i spent many nights there when i was still young and rich and usually under the influence. bjw??you must know/remember? clubs in paris generally have a longer lifespan than here, it might still be cool.

nirvana lounge has always been a pleaser (3 Ave Matignon)

look here for after dark with the mrs, after the touristy stuff is over for the day

http://www.worldsbestbars.com/city/paris/

when i still hung out in paris, the authentic dirty hipsters had already colonized the 11th, but you guys don't want that right? you can see dirty hipsters here, in paris you want to hang out with the rich and beautiful. have a wonderful time!

but don't bother with man ray or buddah bar, some might steer you that way, but those places were over like 8 minutes after then opened. it's rich tourists looking for the jetset, but really just sitting around looking at eachother.

oh another good thing to do one night, you might try to find something online, but better to look in the timeout once you're there, is gallery opening (vernissage) hopping. we always went because it was free wine and snacks, but you know, there's also the art and culture and the artsy peeps of paris. artsy people in paris tend to be nicer, friendlier and just more open than their ny counterparts, making this a very enjoyable experience.

it's Le Bains Douche (7, rue du Bourg-l'Abbe Paris)!!!!!! (the all white place i mentioned) it took 8 minutes on yb to come back with the answer. god, i love those girls.

it's a blast, but remember to dress up. it's a great time though.

Linkedin showed a profit this quarter.

So nice not to have to read bjw's blather!

i forgot to mention! you have to make reservations at the restaurant at castel to get in, it's a private club! usually that won't get you in anyway, but since you're going now-ish and business is slow, have the consierge at the hotel make your reservation, and get some kind of reassurance before you go, at the door you will have to give them your name. because the mrs won't like getting turned away. but she will LOVE bragging about having been there. so make an effort to go. ok, no more.

Promise?

do i promise that they'll get in? no, i can't promise that. it's actually nothing special, it's just hard to get in unless you know someone fabulous in paris and regular people/tourists can't go there. it's one of those places of the world where it's nice to have been, just to say you have.

Promise for no more.

intersting you say that, because this pretty great info for someone going to paris. which i am sharing because i'm nice. i'm also quite sure the person i am addressing probably doesn't mind it, to say the least.

So your promise for no more is worthless.

but you're talking to me.

not sure if the rental providers must hold on their pricing so tight....given the S&P downgrade of US credit rating.

It's about time they must slash the rental prices to lowest given that the downgrade has happened.

which reminds me, w67, don't go to cabaret in palais royale. the cab was always a cheesy tourist trap and full of of wannabes, think the cheesiest b&t clubs here. don't believe anyone who tells you to go there, it's lame. seriously, i'm giving you gold here.