i'm buying stocks today..

stocks are going down tormow when the unemployment data comes out.

do you have a yacht, per chance?

yes unemployment report will suck, then we'll have some greenshoot midday about how we can payoff xyz bills now with new debt which will spark some niche consumer segment and spread or some crap.. then people will forget about both matters in order to leave work early to beat the GSP traffic to lbi, so it'll end where it started in the day..

no yacht, that's what frnds are for.. among other things

is it supposed to rain tmrrw? i think that'll affect GSP traffic cycle which will influence my timing.

Stocks only look reasonably priced if you are predicting economic growth. There's a very good chance 2012 is a bad year for Economic growth(this is what the bond market seems to be saying). I'd wait for lower prices.

im not looking at any charts, im going by pure emotion, pyschology, weather, and sex

what is the cheapest italia etf? when does new jersey shore premiere?

Re: im not looking at any charts, im going by pure emotion, pyschology, weather, and sex

After reading all bsexposer's posts, this has to be the most honest, original and funny comment today. :-)

If your holding period is more than 1 year, it is a great trade in my opinion. We may see 1150 spx on the downside and 1400 on the upside in the next 6 months. If OBAMA stops his ranting against millionaires and starts to talk about how medicare is out of control, we could be a lot higher.

does it matter that 25 million people are looking for full time work?

Today was all about Europe and intervention by the Swiss and Japan against the dollar. It nothing to do with anything Obama said.

gator, OBAMAO has killed the economy by creating uncertainty for businesses. He needs to get real that entitlements can not be sustained - not every one can be given high quality health and end=of-life care. A big news - We are not a rich nation. China is lending us money as they do not have the entitlement issue.

So...without Obama ...happy times are here again?

Getting Republicans back in control of house, senate and Presidency will be hard as Republicans do not have the leadership it needs. Full control of the Republicans is only way entitlement problems get fixed. OBAMAO/Pelosi are not changing his socialist stripes - they are happier if everyone is poor together. Of course, we will all suffer from the gay-bashing and religious right if Republicans are in full control.

Sorry...not getting your point. Who do you want to run things?

Republicans. Democrats have killed the country with entitlements and union benefits.

Ok.

So you think that George bush did a better job than Obama?

Apologies to any gay New Yorkers. Republicans need to fix their social conservatism.

ss400k: Forget the italia ETF - shorting the Russell for the past six months via an ETF finally (it's been a bumpy ride) made me happy today (for once)!

columbiacounty sold his stocks in March 2009

Then, he was taken to apartments that had a window in the shower (HORROR!).

I suspect he might have been one of the partners responsible for Arthur Andersen's demise. Just a guess on that.

No...no and no

But you don't care about facts, do you?

Well, you've stated 1 and 2 right here on streeteasy.

Your denial of your involvement in Arthur Andersen's demise isn't credible given you now lie about #1 and #2.

No.

You have.

But that's not your concern, is it?

"im not looking at any charts, im going by pure emotion, pyschology, weather, and sex"

Thant's why statistica lmodel do not work in the stock market, it's emotion driven

columbiacounty, even apt23 doesn't deny what she's said on streeteasy. She doesn't discuss her embarassing statements after they've been called to light. But she doesn't lie about them.

But you do

Once again, a lie by columbiacounty.

I haven't talked about poorly timed stock sales, embarassing professional mistakes, or going to apartments with windows in the shower.

Neither have I.

But it seems to please you to lie about it.

So columbiacounty, if you weren't part of the end of Arthur Andersen, were you part of Enron? Sunbeam? CUC?

Such a shame about your pedophilia.

Here's columbiacounty not talking about the window in the shower:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/14059-98-riverside-drive

columbiacounty
about 23 months ago
ignore this person
report abuse this was a window in the shower. putting a shade on it would have meant that the shade would have gotten soaked every time someone took a shower. the whole place felt wrong. the broker who you named was sweating bullets in february.

columbiacounty
1 minute ago
ignore this person
report abuse Such a shame about your pedophilia.

Somehow you've confused me with Wbottom. I'm not sure how.

Have those poor little boys recovered from your abuse? Such a shame.

Interesting where your mind goes.

The treatment isn't working? Sorry to hear that.

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Hope you can get help with your obsession with children.

http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&site=&source=hp&q=columbia+county+treatment

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You need to face facts about your problem. No one will help you if you don't .

300_Mercer, the economy was killed when Obama took office. I don't want to get into a political debate because both parties have ruined the economy, but it deserves noting that debt issue was made seriously worse by the Republicans and namely George W. Bush. He did not pay for his tax cuts, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan or his Medicare drug plan. And Bush rolled back regulations that allowed the financial crisis to occur. Entitlements are not killing this country yet (but they will if we don't get our hourse in order), indeed the government has continued to use SS as its own piggy bank.

Obama was the only one willing to put everything on the table, no sacred cows. He was willing to make changes to SS and Medicare despite the protests of his party, cut spending and raise revenues (an absolute necessity like it or not). Republicans, controlled by the Tea Party, said my way or the highway and were willing to risk a US default to get what they wanted. The Tea Partiers are economic terrorists (yes I said it and if Biden said it too he was right).

Again more than enough blame to go around. Fact is there are no quick and easy solutions and the US and the world are going to suffer for a few more years as we all get our financial houses back in order. If only our problems were as simple as uncertainty for business. It's not an uncertainty problem, its a demand problem. There is no demand and that is why big business is not investing there cash horde.

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Is that the police knocking on your door?

Oh well.

No, they are knocking on apartment 23.

Lame.

Even for you.

columbiacouunty?

Even lamer.

Poor you

columbiacoounty?

gator, 2008 and 9 is fully bush's doing but inability of the economy to create jobs is mostly due to OBAMAO focusing on healthcare reforms rather than doing something about business growth. His gut reactions are anti-business and hence anti-jobs. First reaction after BP spill was to shut down all drilling. Also, have not heard him suggest higher co-payments and increasing age for Medicare. He is beholden to the unions and poor families without realizing that we can not afford it any more.

columbia? someone might be willing to look through your window.

Here's columbiacounty not talking about the window in the shower:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/14059-98-riverside-drive

columbiacounty
about 23 months ago
ignore this person
report abuse
he showed us a couple of apartments in that building---on the 14th floor as i recall. sorry--but it did seem like an obvious disaster. i'll never forget the window in the shower which gave everyone across the street a clear view of whatever you might do in the shower. he suggested a window shade.

So...the answer is more domestic drilling and raising the age for Medicare?

So... the answer is no answer, just complain all the time?

I guess that's your answer.

Plus lying about everything.

What are you running for?

Who are you talking to? Do you even know at this point, or are the guilty voices in your head overwhelming you?

A complete asshole.

Ypu

?

300, TARP, stimulus and quantitative easing kept us out of the next Great Depression. Nothing govenment can do can quickly resolve the huge structural issues facing the US, Europe, etc. Obama focused on health care because the US spends far more on health care than any peer country. He recognized that health care is one of our structural issues that must be fixed. We must get spending on health care reigned in. You may not agree with how he did it, but at least he tackled the issue.

Fact of the matter is that there is simply not a whole lot the Federal governement can do anymore to create jobs. We need job retraining, we need infrastructure projects, we need reserach incentives. But these are not quick fixes. There are no quick fixes. The U.S. has to stop guzzling Nyquil to treat the symptoms, it has to take its medicine to cure the illness. And that will take time and fortitude.

And sometimes the less Obama says the better. He couldn't go public with details on reforming Medicare. It was political suicide. There are too many in this country who are opposed to anything Obama proposes simply because of the color of his skin or the belief that it underpins a socialist ideal.

"There are too many in this country who are opposed to anything Obama proposes simply because of the color of his skin or the belief that it underpins a socialist ideal"

You realize that Obama is 1/2 white, do you not? Take a look at a picture of his mother. Race is becoming less and less relevant in today's society - people really don't care that much anymore - this isn't the 60s (1860s or 1960s).

Proof - http://obama.net/ann-dunham-obamas-mother/

BSex, I'm aware, but do you think that makes a difference? Race is becoming less relevant in today's society, but it still remains far too important for far too many. And don't forget that NYC is not the rest of the country. There are many areas where race is still very important, white mother notwithstanding (and to many that just makes matters worse).

Gator, but it is just too easy to use the race card whenever anyone doesn't agree with Obama. Some people actually don't agree with his policies and could care less about who his parents were.

patk, I agree. I was only stating some of the reasons why it is better for Obama not to provide too much detail for his plans. Once Obama states what he's in favor of the Tea Party becomes diametrically opposed to whatever it is. There is also that faction that rejects whatever he says based on race.

The point is that those who place the blame for our current economic condition solely at Obama's feet are being more than just myopic.

"Gator, but it is just too easy to use the race card whenever anyone doesn't agree with Obama. Some people actually don't agree with his policies and could care less about who his parents were. "

agree, ever notice people who use the race card are usually most racist..

strawman tactic

hol4, how did I use the race card? In any event, to ignore that there is a segment of the population that is resentful of the fact that a African American is president is simply ignorant.

"to ignore that there is a segment of the population that is resentful of the fact that a African American is president is simply ignorant"

There is also a segment of the population that supports and roots for Obama - regardless of his policies - simply because he's the 1st black president (although maybe Clinton was actually the first - or so he claimed). I think this segment is probably larger than the segment that dislikes Obama for racial reasons. But the mass of people in the middle (including me, and by far the majority of people) only care about his policies, not his ethnicity. I couldn't care less about what color Obama's skin is - I do care about the effect his policies have on the country.

so what did u buy at the open SS400k?

ud: i bought the market, not like all or anything, just enough where i'd be comfortable if it goes down further or slightly tickled if it creeps back up...

im too lazy (read horny/busy setting up buttsex for this wkend) to actually investigate individual companies..

I picked up some more index today. I wouldn't quite call it an up bet, more taking some of the profits I took a bunch of weeks back and putting it back to work.

somewhereelse...your call would have been believable if you made it last night.

now ss400k that's how you call it. Man says he's buying when all hell is breaking loose swe calls it after the game is over. ya we believe you swe.

wow swe...you really have guts calling it like you did @ 4:01. Sheeet u da man!

Urban, I don't see stocks cheap here. Dividend yields are attractive from a historical standpoint(and I don't buy the comparison to treasury yields since that metric is static). We're still very high on a (ten year moving average ) p/e basis. Market has not fully discounted slower growth.
---

It would not surprise me one bit if we moved below 10k on the DOW.

I meant dividend yields ARE NOT ATTRACTIVE.

since this is a real estate board I can emphasize a perk in owning real estate vs stocks..please see yesterday.

now it makes no difference to me how a man makes his investments, you understand, but your way is a little dangerous :)

okay i was wrong about unemployment report sucking hard (or right, depending how u count).. but pretty much right on everything else, with the mid-day rally and the slight fall back ending just above day start..

garden state traffic must be jam packed..raining the wkend, certain still plenty of shirtless hotties on the boardwalk

River, there are loads of stocks trading at a low PE.

Republicans have only themselves to blame, for credit contraction that was 25 years in the making. And we are to believe an old man who couldn't even pick a running mate or run a campaign during an unfolding financial crisis had all the answers. Please.

Stocks are not cheap. They are not a good investment. They may be a good trade however. You will be defined in your decision to buy by when you sell them and at what price (yes, definitional). Although, if they go more than 5-10% lower from here, then you will have been wrong. Timing isn't everything, it's the only thing.

Rhino I agree. If you want to trade then fine but don't get to attached to your stocks. Take you profit if you get one and if it goes the other way get out- no more than 20% down if that.

Eddie Wilson, Eddie Wilson, Eddie Wilson.

>Timing isn't everything, it's the only thing.

And of course since people can't time very well, timing well becomes luck. So luck is everything?

People with cash should get ready to buy on Monday if the market dips more than a 3%. ss440k, will you buy more?

Veteran economist Gary Shilling appeared on Bloomberg TV yesterday (link here) and forecast a massive deflation with a hard landing for China compounding an already difficult position for commodity prices. He predicted the S&P 500 index would drop to 800, still above its 2009 low of 666.

‘There are some [safe havens] in the real estate area. We like medical office buildings. That’s because of aging populations, the new medical health care bill, and improving technology. Also, 55% of physicians work for hospitals. Private practices with a storefront are disappearing. They’re moving into campuses…

‘Another one is rental apartments. People are deciding a house is no longer a sure shot investment. Prices can and do fall. They have, for the first time since the 30’s…Rental apartments will continue to be very attractive

http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-dollar/2011/09/29/hard-landing-for-china-sp-to-800-and-deflation-warns-veteran-economist-gary-shilling/

On whether the stock market will go down:
“I think it probably is [headed back down] because the economy here is slowing, and it’s global and of course a lot of the S&P 500 companies have their earnings predominantly overseas. In that kind of environment, we’re going to see disappointing earnings. The Wall Street analysts always optimistic, of course, crank down their numbers….If you put a ten multiple on it, we’d be at S&P 800.” “We had a big sell-off but I really suspect that this is a pause before things drop further.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA

Must see video..(I go to bed every night and dream of another recession)

"I picked up some more index today. I wouldn't quite call it an up bet, more taking some of the profits I took a bunch of weeks back and putting it back to work."

That's be about 250 points or so ago in the S&P.

Shilling effectively points out the stupidity of using forward earnings as a valuation tool. The numbers are overly-optimistic tools used to sell stocks by Pollyanas. It's fair to say the situation in Europe, U.S. and now China point to continued de-leveraging and weak corporate earnings. It's only now that analysts are starting the process of adjusting their numbers. He backs up why people who use the Shiller CAPE ratio were better prepared to not over-pay.

"That's be about 250 points or so ago in the S&P."

Actually 39 points ago from when SWE posted that, Steve. But who's counting..

Nope, seg: I marked the day.

This is the S&P chart to use, RS:

http://www.multpl.com/

Still shows a historical - aka provable - p/e ratio of about 20; mean is 15. And even if you use past earnings as a guide, you have to be careful: much of the "great earnings" since QEII have been in a) foreign currency gains due to the falling dollar; and b) inventory revaluations due to the rise in commodity prices.

Neither of those represents cash entries, and they are very ephemeral. But all you hear about on CNBC is how "cheap" stocks are - but it's not true, when you look at it objectively.

Here's a great example of "forward earnings":

https://www.wachovia.com/foundation/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=18d79887b841f110VgnVCM200000627d6fa2RCRD&vgnextfmt=default&key_guid=f8ddcc46c61eb110VgnVCM100000ca0d1872RCRD

Let us not forget AOL's brilliant purchase of Time Warner....

keep buying stocks and make big corporations richer and yourself poorer

CAPE ratio. Who cares what a company earned 10 years ago? Seems silly except to find the most stable/stagnant companies?

"Nope, seg: I marked the day."

Well then you marked it wrong. If you scroll your cursor up to the original post it shows August 5th. S&P close on 8/5 was 1,199. Yesterday it closed at 1,160. That's 39pts not 250.

Besides, 1,160 + 250 = 1,410. The S&P hasn't been there since January 2008.

CAPE ratio. Who cares what a company earned 10 years ago? Seems silly except to find the most stable/stagnant companies?

Dead wrong.
Helps to avoid buying at the peak of the earnings cycle and takes into account that earnings don't go in a straight line. Also helps smooth out accounting tricks(e.g. in 2008 many companies used a bad earnings environment to take write-downs that were long over-due which helped make future earnings better)

"it shows August 5th"

No it doesn't. In fact, the post was well before the downgrade of US debt, which happened on August 5. Sorry, but it was - and if it was on August 5, that would be the single worst call of all time.

I'm w/ RS on this one, too. (YIKES!)

Eastman Kodak is on my mind today. Everyone knew or should have known the company had no future. They were a film based photography company in a digital world and were never going to make the transition. This could've been a fantastic company to invest in as a stock holder if the Board and CEO had recognized their fate earlier and operating the company as a liquidating trust, keeping investment down and paying out all the profits till the company wound down. But instead they kept thinking they could make it in the digital world..

I couldn't believe Kodak when they sold their chemicals subsidiary to focus on film, sometime in the early 90's, I think. I said to myself, "Dudes...."

But, like Polaroid, it's a Great Name.

hi, im a genius, thanks buy.

nice ss400k. I reduced the exposure by 50% at 1400ish level. Are you holding on for 1500 at the year-end?