Buy Now or Be Priced Out Forever!

Just as accurate as Steve's "Down 50% or more" call... whoops.

Or prime Manhattan location, nice condition unit (TriBeCa, GV, UES, etc.) in a well run/managed stable non-land lease building $500/sf.

Excelsior!
(how did I know this post was steve)
I think I'll have a greek salad for lunch....no....that will bring me down.

I'll add that the clients I am working with these days are intelligent, thoughtful buyers who are prepared to buy "if and when" they find the right home. The most important criteria is finding a home that they love and will bring emotional happiness to themselves and their family over the next 7-10 years. On average I would say the clients I work with have been looking for one year , many more like two years.

Although I appreciate your humor stevejhx, "Buy now or be priced out forever" is so 2008 (;

Keith Burkhardt
The Burkhardt Group

It was meant to garner a snigger, KB.

Well, most of steve's comments do in fact garner sniggers... though usually at his expense.

Wow, times are tough. Just because our retirements are being wiped out by another stock market collapse shouldn't affect our ability to appreciate a little sarcasm at our own expense.

almost as amusing as steve implying selling gold... 2 years ago..

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5195-cramer-says-to-buy-gold

when it was sub $1000 per ounce, lolziez

and i don't even like gold meh

i sold my gold at 1885 or so...yay!!!

Yeah, gold.

Remember when steve said that current Wayne, NJ real estate performance could predict what was going to happen in Manhattan 2 years later?

Why don't you pull us the link on that Juicy, since I didn't say it? 'Cause I got some links on things you DID say that are truly classic....

What I DID say is that Manhattan was behind the rest of the country on the real-estate cycle, and that if you performed a stepwise regression on property prices in Manhattan with those of the region as a whole, you would see a near 100% correlation. But since you don't know what a stepwise regression is, it was all for naught!

yeh gold, and wayne, and charlotte..

hehe

Where's spunky when you need him/her?

I'm fine with gold and Wayne. Charlotte ... maybe not such a good call! :)

and then there's that spike in mortgage rates we're all waiting for - not stevejhx in particular, but it's one of those oldies but goodies

I don't think I ever said mortgage rates would spike. Eventually they'll go up, but no time soon.

matso - spunky = steveF. Just like w67 = petrzitz. somewhereelse = ediot wilson.

Some people you can never escape.

dirty talking ape was petrifitz? Wow.

falco: I think I'll have a greek salad for lunch....no....that will bring me down.

hilarious

apt23 is trying to re-live her days as teenage giggly girl.

What an idiot.

>>>'ll add that the clients I am working with these days are intelligent, thoughtful buyers who are prepared to buy "if and when" they find the right home. The most important criteria is finding a home that they love and will bring emotional happiness to themselves and their family over the next 7-10 years. On average I would say the clients I work with have been looking for one year , many more like two years.

I'll add, yes, your clients are probably a lot smarter then you are by not rushing in and buying an apartment and the initial inflated listing price. They are getting paid to wait as Manhattan RE slowly sinks with the rest of the country. Soon the $2mm apartment they liked will be worth $1.5mm. I think most educated people realize that brokers are just sales people and all they care about is making a commission. The majority will lie through their teeth to get a listing and to sell an apartment. Babs C and this buy Noah that i never heard of are just cheerleaders or pollyanna's that try to make owners and potential buyers feel better..

This is a stupid time to buy at inflated prices, BUT, anyone who never EVER buys in their lifetime is a stupid f*cking idiot. It's an important clarification that some here are too dumb to understand.

since Manhattan RE priced are back to 03-04' levels. Being patient and not buying has paid off handsomely.

"since Manhattan RE priced are back to 03-04' levels. Being patient and not buying has paid off handsomely."

I think you'd agree that's a big generalization, though. There are plenty of examples of this to be sure, but there are also plenty of examples of apartments that were purchased in the years since then (including in 08-10) that have subsequently sold for more. Real estate data is an important tool, but it's only a part of the overall decision-making process.

Brooks2: Are you absolutely certain that a $2M apartment in prime NYC will fall more than 20% from where it is today? Even when I stopped selling/advised clients not to buy in the beginning of 2007 and started my company to focus on discounted brokerage commissions for rentals, I was not 100% certain where NYC prices would go. (If I knew with absolute certainty where prices would go, I would be writing this....scratch that; I would be in Costa Rica surfing my beloved favorite break at Playa Hermosa and building schools).

I have tried to address some issues that people have with brokers, one being the commission structure; I rebate up to 67% of the buy-side commission back to my clients. I don't push clients to purchase as I don't get involved until after they find a place (on their own)that they would like to buy. Then I assist them in trying to understand what it's current market value is, bidding strategy and whether I think it is a quality purchase based on 22 years as a broker (30 years living here). I like to tell them what I think it's worth before they tell me what they would like to bid, then we discuss all the finer points of the deal, cost of renovations, location etc....

I think we have had a enough time since the markets first cracked to feel confident enough to make a purchase today, especially if you plan to hold for at least 7-10 years and have done your due diligence on price. We also can't discount the emotional component of a home purchase. Every client I have worked with, I would say this is 70% of their motivation; they want a place they'll love to live their life in. They have looked at comparable rentals and feel the differential between owning and renting in some of NYC's prime neighborhoods is a risk they can tolerate.

Keith Burkhardt
The Burkhardt Group
http://ubivoletaudentunicornium.blogspot.com/2011/01/evolution-of-my-business-model.html

>We also can't discount the emotional component of a home purchase. Every client I have worked with, I would say this is 70% of their motivation; they want a place they'll love to live their life in. They have looked at comparable rentals and feel the differential between owning and renting in some of NYC's prime neighborhoods is a risk they can tolerate.

How about the fact that if they find a comparable rental, it is transitory - not long-term? How about the fact that unless you are a rent regulated tenant in NYC that you'll probably be moving in 4 years or less, vs. a longer time frame for owning? How about the fact that "emotional" actually translates to peace with your wife, and providing your kids with the stability that you had as a kid, or the stability you didn't have as a kid but promised you'd provide for your kids when you got to be a parent?

To clarify: How about the fact that unless you are a rent regulated tenant in NYC that you'll probably be moving in 4 years or less, vs. a longer time frame for owning?

Unless you are a renter who is under rent regulation in NYC ...

>>>I would be in Costa Rica surfing my beloved favorite break at Playa Hermosa --

Surfed it.. overrated. Once you've surfed Noosa, Aust. Costa Rica will be a distant memory.. Good Luck

Surfing is too much effort - when you can just sit there and do nothing but watch the waves.

@Brooks2- Yeah, but it's only 4.5 hours from home (: Noosa is on the list though, even with all the scary things in the water.
stevejhx: That is what is unique about ocean surfing, it is quite enjoyable to just sit and watch the ocean. Can't just sit a look at a stadium! lol.

KeithB, Brooks2: Are you absolutely certain that a $2M apartment in prime NYC will fall more than 20% from where it is today?
I think we have had a enough time since the markets first cracked to feel confident enough to make a purchase today.

No one can be certain, but if I was GOING TO BET MY LIVE SAVINGS on where Manhattan RE will be 1 year from now, , I'D BET IT GOES LOWER!!!!!!

Kb, I will take it a little easy on you since you have balls enough to put your real name and company on this thread. Can you tell me what is better now than 3 years ago. Look a this below list form another poster three years ago.

Can you tell me what if anything is better that will make Manhattan RE stabilize(please don't say BRIC)? Look, Nothing is better than 3 years ago. Census data released just recently for 2010' s showed incomes in Manhattan are down 10%, NYC 5% and a substantial decrease for upper incomes(>$200K). It is fact that income is directly correlated to RE, Do you think income levels will be up for 2011' or 12' for that mater? If we dont' see more layoffs to balance the budget for the decline in NYC, Manhattan revenues, we will see an increase in taxes. I can go on and on (just like this guy says below).. --

1. Prices are dropping ----- TRUE
2. Areas like Harlem can't move units ------ TRUE
3. New developments throughout the city have slowed and are reducing price --- TRUE
4. Line around the block to buy are non-existent ----- TRUE
5. Dow is just above 12,000 (down from 14,000) --- Well a lot LOWER- under 11,000
6. Unemployment went from 4.5 to 5.5 - --------- now 9.1
7. Collapse of Bear (was in business for 85 years) ---- Lehman,
8. Every financial stock (except GS) is down 50,60,70 or 80% -- no GS is under $95
9. Wallstreet layoffs in the tens of thousands ---- Still laying off
10. The dollar is devastated -- ~76.7 $/yen
11. Commodities Thru the roof ----- well, flawed logic here-- but gold is ~1600 an once(up from ~$700
12. Inflation/stagflation ----- borderline deflation-- FED initiating QE3 or operation twist
13. Worst housing crisis since the great depression. ----- TRUE
14. IB's basically stopped lending money. ------ TRUE
15. Regional banks closing daily. ----True 73 banks have closed ytd 2011' most recently CBNC
16. Tighter lending standards. -- True- addtionally- Fnam/fredie back enforcing lending guidelines fro Condos/Coops in
17. High Inventory -- higher inventory- large shadow inventory

I could be here all day. All of this in the last 6 months. I laugh when people said that big wallstreet bonuses fueled the housing boom in Manhattan and now that bonuses are going to be non-existant it won't have an effect in the future. The tide has turned in the last six months and just because real estate is not being given away doesn't mean the wheels aren't in motion. Real estate is not a liquid asset, it takes time for the market to react. The only way I see this being stopped is wallstreet re-hires and gives the huge bonuses like past years.

Oh and most importantly, all of this occured even with the Federal Gov't Bailing out Wallstreet. Without the discount window, well I don't even want to imagine how bad things would be. If the next six months are anything like this, the economy will take years to recover.

Wow-- what will it be like in another year.. everything this guy said three year again is true, but worse!!!!!

KeithB--@Brooks2- Yeah, but it's only 4.5 hours from home (: Noosa is on the list though, even with all the scary things in the water.

no the scary things in the water are further north.
If you are a regular foot, it's the fastest longest point break you'll surf(I have had my share of Pt Break in Ncal, Steamer lane most notable and up the coast) and many places around the world. I'd put Noosa at the top of the list.. on a big swell, take the extra walk to get to the 4th cove(through the park)-- it is bigger and no crowds.. and very easy paddle out... your legs will get a better workout than your shoulders.

>I could be here all day.

Yes you could.

Brooks2: I like an easy paddle (holding up well, but I am almost 48) and love a good point break. I actually broke my back 2 years ago in Hermosa, slowly getting back on the horse. It rattled me a bit to say the least and I physically could not surf for about a year. Never surfed steamers, but lived in Malibu (winters) in the early 80's and then a little later in the decade just steps to Blacks in SD.

Regarding where RE goes in NYC I tend to agree with you, I think there is a good chance it could go down over the next 1-2 years or just stay choppy ( and I share this view with my clients). But like I said, the clients that engage me usually share this view, but are buying for a multitude of reasons and not trying to specifically time a bottom. Also no argument from me, there is a lot scary shi*t in the hopper, how it plays out exactly....?

Glad to hear the scary stuff is further North, those little killer jellyfish freak me out.

Brooks, you didn't once live on Thompson street did you? I had a listing there years ago and a surfer from SF bought it; could the world be that small?

Keith Burkhardt

I should add that I don't think you can generalize about the declines in Manhattan. When I started doing this there were appropriate discounts according to neighborhood (we lost that in the bubble, everything was expensive regardless of location or condition). I think some listings currently do need to fall 20% (and will), others in prime nabes will hold up much better. there is no buying frenzy, however prime (especially 2+ bedrooms) in the most desirable neighborhoods are highly in demand and there is a definite (current) shortage.

I have certainly seen my share of silly trades taking place, more emotion than value buying. We tend to stay away from that stuff, stick with our plan and bid what is appropriate in our view. If we don't get it, we walk...wait. In some cases I have done this for two years with clients, no sweat, my biz model accommodates this with no frustration for buyer or broker.

Stevehjx. Timer ON!

Sex is too much effort, when you can just watch.

Fking shut in.

R u afraid I'm gonna run off urbandigs from se? Oh another anonymous internet friend gone forever. Poor poor 4 language speaking shut in. Btw I spk three. So stop patting yourself in the azz.

My wife speaks 3 and she does medical procedures that requires and bitch anestheticist.

'a bitch'. I.e. My 5yo has a recital, her whole fking team sticks their thumb up their azz for 2 hours.

You stevehjx, get handed Spanish 10Q from the secretary of the lowest junior banker... And you better kiss her azz lest you lose out to the only other person in the world who can speak Spanish and English.

Fktard x

@ nyc re => no fking doubt it's gonna be significantly lower this year, next and the nExt. After that, I don't give a shit as my income will explode. And I can give my wife that permanent vacation in Paris if she wants.

$500psf.

>>Brooks, you didn't once live on Thompson street did you? I had a listing there years ago and a surfer from SF bought it; could the world be that small?

No... not from Sf. Lived in N.Cal for about 5 yrs though.. (and by the way, saw that market go up and down too.) fortunately I rented because when I moved back east friends of mine that bot and moved when I did.. lost Money.

"
3. New developments throughout the city have slowed and are reducing price --- TRUE "

that certainly isn't true in williamsburg...quite the opposite..so where is that true? examples?

w67thstreet seems much more angry than usual, while still talking about his family, wife, living situation and business.

In my business, we translate that as either mommy issues or daddy issues.

Did everyone know that w67thstreet's mommy made him make beaded jewelry with her when he was a little boy because w67thstreet's daddy was unable to pay the bills?

And then when w67thstreet's daddy struck it rich, he gave no credit to little w67thstreet for his work helping the family.

25 years later, w67thstreet is still angry at mommy for making him do "girl things", and for daddy because he was rejected by his daddy for being a mamma's boy.

But today he eats more pussy than stevejhx and his two children have trust fund.

Oh, and the hairy dirty ape can squat more than the average human. Seriously.