Anyone take Game Theory in college economics?
Started by east_cider
almost 18 years ago
Posts: 200
Member since: Feb 2008
Discussion about
The current state of the market for condos and coops in prime Manhattan is starting to look like a Game Theory case study. The bid-ask spread is widening. Buyers are hungry for bargains and aren't going to pull out the checkbook to pay 2006/7 prices for decent properties. Sellers are holding fast to those 2006/7 notions and keeping their asking prices aloft. Who will be first to crack? Should incremental buyers go "on strike" and just starve the sellers of bids? Sort of like a collective bargaining agreement?
Don't think it's really game theory in the aggregate b/c every unit of inventory is unique, every buyer and seller is unique, and every set of circumstances surrounding sale of a particular unit is unique. Thus "rules of the game" are different for every unit.
However, if you and your friends want to execute your Modest Proposal and go on a bidding strike, be my guest. Will drop demand and make prices lower for me, and every one else not participating in the strike ;)
If you want to talk about game theory, how about the classic prisoner's dilemma case.
Each prisoner's optimal move results in a worse total end result for the prisoners as they will both sell each other out.
I'm trying to say your plan will only work if all the other prisoners agree to collude with you.
Well, naturally, there's a huge incentive to "cheat," just like in the famous prisoners' dilemma, but that assumes that everyone is participating in the same exact game. But the market I'm talking about is in fact quite fragmented (lots of small transactions), all it should take is a general tendency by buyers to hold out on their bidding behavior to change the broad tone of the market, which then could propagate via RE agents advising their sellers to rationalize their expectations. Only then might asking prices adjust to where the market is.