NYC Housing Collapse Imminent?

165,000 pre-foreclosures is pretty enormous. Between the stranglehold of the Courts and their exposure, I can understand why the banks are still hoping this will all blow over.

Excerpt,
"What do you think will happen to home prices once the banks finally begin to foreclose on these properties? Prices will collapse in the four outer boroughs and will decline sharply in Manhattan. I am convinced that this will occur although we can’t be sure when the banks will begin to move on this."

Without commenting on whether the opinion set forth in the article has any merit, one reason that I think that there are less foreclosures in NY than in many other places is that it takes a very long time to foreclose in NY (2 years is no unheard of). In most other places it takes less time. Lenders in some of the southern states, can foreclose in a couple of months. If a lender knows that it is going to take 2 years to get a property, I think that they are more likely to seek other alternatives, or just sit on its hands.

there was a disclosure document indicating it will take at least 7 years for ny court to clear the current pending foreclosure cases in the pipeline. by that time, mark fvckerberg and his suckers already push the manhattan RE price to a bigger bubble level

Actually mark zucerberg and his new shareholders will figure out a way to move operations out of NY and Cali and to Texas and perhaps abroad.

Manhattan RE has been spared the worst because of co-op boards which did not allow the creative financing that occurred in most of the country.. Never heard of a co=op board that allowed for an interest on;y mortgage, etc., My guess is that the vast majority of the foreclosures are on single houses, perhaps a few condos, and very, very few co=ops.

Citing this idiotic article is well, idiotic (no surprise from the poster). What's the point of citing something so absurd? (Or if you really agree with it, how about explaining the wave of foreclosures about the engulf the city....which...by the way..is renting pretty well with decent sales too).

The reality is, between how long it takes to foreclose, the amount of rental units, all the coops, and international wealthy buyers, its unlikely prices here will collapse Vegas-style. What HAS happened before, and will probably be the case over the next 5 years or so, is flat nominal pricing, with inflation making real prices lower by 20% or so by say 2017. As in the early-mid 90s.

Lots of COOPS are in foreclosure. Lots of condos are in foreclosure. Jojo mentions good point- one main reason for foreclosures in NY is the long court process.

Coop foreclosures are not done in courts and can be completed in 4-6
weeks from start to finish unless the borrower gets a court injunction.

oldtimer21: "...Lots of COOPS are in foreclosure. Lots of condos are in foreclosure...." Really? In prime Manhattan between 110th and the Financial District? Can you back that assertion up with anything factual?

jason10006: "...What HAS happened before, and will probably be the case over the next 5 years or so, is flat nominal pricing, with inflation making real prices lower by 20% or so by say 2017..." Query - and over the same 5 year period, how much do expect monthly rent to go up?

The just agreed upon mortgage settlement will probably end many of the
foreclosures that are now pending.

with average forgiveness of $20K, it will not do anything in NY. $200K would.

The average give back by the banks is $17.5k. Everyone go get their $20k on their underwater mortgages. Flmaozz.

What's funny is you gotta be behind on the mortgage to qualify and it has to be a non Fannie/Freddie held mortgage.

You think 99% or mortgage holders even know who owns their mortgage? This is called moral hazard. Wait till the delinquency peaks. If any mortgagee was on the fence and trying to pay on time, nothing like $25b admission by the banks to pile on. Hilarious. Stfu and go buy some nyc re.

What Mym said.

"Query - and over the same 5 year period, how much do expect monthly rent to go up?"

It depends on how long it takes prices in real terms to come down, but the price to rent ratio (as many have pointed out) in NYC has historically been say 15X (some say lower) and now its still over 20X. So either prices have to come down, or rents up, or both. But if historical patterns hold, the rent/buy decision will be more tilted towards buying in a few years time than it is now.

In real terms, rents per SF have been essentially flat over ten years. Up, then down, then up, which has equaled flat. So back in 2000, it was much better to buy than rent. Now its better to rent than buy, and in five years is will better to buy again.

Coooooooooo oooooooooooooooooop. Force field ON.

Flmaozz.

One of the primary reasons for foreclosures in NYC was sub-prime, zero down
and down payment assistance sales. Those sales were concentreated primarily
in low income outer borough neighborhoods.

Altho the resulting foreclosures are in many instances unfair and personal
tragedies, they are collectively unlikely to materially affect values in
better and more desirable neighborhoods

How is taking out a mortgage one can't afford 'unfair'? Btw everything is 'personal' on a certain level.

Drum roll please. Number 1 reason for income loss and resultant foreclosure.......
JOB LOSS. Yeh, nyc doesn't have any large industry that is structurally collapsing.... Oh I wonder what that industry iz????

Help rb543

it is UNFAIR that those deadbeats/flippers can buy a house for 0% down or through an subsidized grant

Relax Everyone! I am an RE Broker with Prudential Douglas Elliman and we have just released our 10 year market report and I think you all will be pleased with where we are in terms of prices etc. Being active in the RE Market I have more business than I can believe with tons of investors as well as first time homebuyers entering the market. Feel free to email me if you would like me to send you the 10yr report. My email is cmchyman@elliman.com

careful

cmchyman- Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah that's great.

Relax everyone, once Facebook, Apple and Google employees cash out on their stock they will save the NYC real estate market! LMFAO!

I'm sooo relaxed now that I know cmchy has more biz than he can believe.

se can add that option:

--minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse
Relax Everyone!

feel so much better, especially getting that info from a "pro"...more champagne for everyone and another round of dim sum.

Hey everyone - say "Hi!!!" -

http://www.elliman.com/real-estate-agent/carter-mchyman/2077

RELAX MAN.... drink a second dose of koolaid...

from your friend,
Hyman.. isn't that the piece of skin keeping you a virgin?

Serious comment though, why the 10 yr period versus 15, like 1997 to 2012.... ahhhhhhhh.... you got the Lawrence Yun gene....

IS HIS PENIS REALLY AS BIG AS THEY SAY?

"Relax Everyone! I am an RE Broker with Prudential Douglas Elliman and we have just released our 10 year market report and I think you all will be pleased with where we are in terms of prices etc."

Half of these people are on "ignore", but I assume a lot of them are insulting your broker-hood. I would point out, though, that this thread is more about where prices WILL go, not where they HAVE been or are CURRENTLY. So your report, while interesting, is moot.

No,jason.
I refer to his statement: more biz than he can believe.

As if he's so surprised like it's a fluke.

Bad copywriting.

>Relax Everyone! I am an RE Broker with Prudential Douglas Elliman<

Duh, o'tay, cmchyman. Shmo.

shmo: A dumb person, a person that has no reality of life; Someone of low intelligence, an ignoramus; An idiot who doesn't know whats going on; anyone who looks dumb and or goofy in appearance

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=shmo

Re: http://www.elliman.com/real-estate-agent/carter-mchyman/2077

Always a tough decision - The Realtor Institute or Hamburger U. ?

"Relax Everyone! I am an RE Broker with Prudential Douglas Elliman" is a great way to start a post.

He looks like a young Newt Gingrich....need I say more?

OMG. OMG. I thought cmchyman's post was obvious satire. Not even particularly good satire, as it was so over-the-top absurd; good satire is usually somewhat droll and briefly makes you wonder whether it is satire at all. But not this - it was obvious satire with the authors ridiculous invitiation to place any reliance whatsoever on a realtor's "Latest 10 year report!" and his claim that he barely had any time to think, what with having "more business than I can believe!" from the "tons of investors and first time home buyers" beating down his door. I mean this ad would have been over the top in 2005. It said everything except "buy now or be priced out forever!" and "everyone is flipping houses nowadays!", and would make an old west snake oil salesman blush.

I nearly swallowed my teeth when matson helped me understand that this wasn't satire at all. OMG. He's serious. He REALLY thinks some of us are that dumb. I don't know whether to laugh, feel sorry for him, or be offended. OMG.

Look fellas i've been thinking about this and its pretty clear what we need to do. I don't want to offend anyone but I need to say this because it's pretty obvious what fate awaits the human race if we don't take action, now: We need to remove cmchyman from the gene pool. Before it's too late...

what's wrong with cmchyman being an agent? at least he's a better agent on this board

It's too easy, I cannot resist.

"Carter is a native Manhattanite and having spent many of his formative years in Spain is fluent in Spanish."

Como se dice "hail mary pass" en español?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/647356-condo-3-east-78th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

$18K rent for 3 apts, could be yours for $9M.

It's a "grandiose" place. Not that it'll help much with moving the listing, but I don't think it means what you think it means, Carter.

I find it fascinating that every comment seems to ignore the OP's article and the figures that suggest trouble for NYC RE. Can anyone dispute the figures that suggest an onslaught of foreclosures in the boroughs. And can anyone dispute the suggestion of the author that a wave of foreclosures in the boroughs would put significant downward pressure on manhattan prices?

would the broker like to comment on the validity of the article which is the subject of this thread?

"would the broker like to comment on the validity of the article which is the subject of this thread?"

LOL. Yeah, that's going to be insightful. If the broker were any stupider, he'd have to be watered twice a week...

>apt23- why exactly would foreclosures in the outer boroughs put downward pressure on Manhattan prices? Didn't the prices in the outer boroughs, especially in all the new condos, rise because Manhattan prices had gone so high? Don't understand your reasoning. Really don't see outer borough foreclosures affecting Manhattan prices.

The broker's grandiosefather would like to have an interpersonal dispute with inonada.
In fluent spanish.
For all of those who spent their formative years here in N.Y.C. and couldn't get fluency en espanol:
it's too late, bambino; now it's too late...

murray is not fascinated.

Truth , what the hell are you talking about?

apt23-

Sure, increased foreclosures in the outer boroughs would put some pressure on manhattan, but I dont think a lot. For the most part it is a different buyer, and a different market. Sure there are buyers that consider Brooklyn Heights, Cobble Hill, and Manhattan. I just dont think that the hyberbolic language is appropriate. There is no wave of forclosures that is going to cause a tsunami of price declines, and the immenent collapse in NYC RE while the sky is falling. We have been hearing about the sky falling any second for 4 years now. As a whole, real estate will likely underperform other asset classes on a real return basis for some time until rental and purchase prices are more in line with historic levels. Having that view on this board makes me a raging bull.

Buster McHyman...breaking down barriers, bucking the market trends, breaking hearts.

There's a new Sheriff in town...

murray:

re:>apt23

"why exactly would foreclosures in the outer boroughs put downward pressure on Manhattan prices?"

Uh, that's called "relative value". Happened in the late 80's/early 90's. Are you old enough to remember that?

Falco - I would NOT let my daughter date a guy named "Buster McHyman!"

What's the definition of "imminent"? Doesn't it mean "about to happen"? So is the collapse next month? In 6 months? Can someone tell me? And when you're done with that one, they say "the meek will inherit the earth". Well I'm one of the meek and I'd like to know (only if its not too much trouble) when that will be.

OMG Al-Assad you are hysterical!

I'd say with RE, nothing is imminent, eventual is a more apt term

Thank you, Stealth1