Manhattan Rents Up The Most Since 2007

Makes a pretty great case for renters, doesn't it...

1) The increase is noted to be coming from the fact that folks aren't buying...
2) The median is 4.3 percent below the peak of $3,265 in 2006

So, yes, rents have come up so... but looks like they're still relatively low. The last chart we had a few months ago showed rents at 90s levels in real terms.

Even lower would be even better, but nice to know that rents have stayed historically low, while prices tanked....

It's interesting to look at the median rent data broken up by apt size. The greatest strength is clearly in studios & 1BRs, having made up nearly all the lost ground. At 2BR and above though, significant weakness continues. My theory for this has been dropping wages in places like WS, compressing demand on the low-end while reducing it at the high-end.

Year Quarter Studio 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom 4+ Bedroom All
2012 2 2,395 3,250 4,298 5,295 6,800 3,125
2012 1 2,350 3,195 4,500 5,815 9,660 3,100
2011 4 2,350 3,195 4,533 6,159 7,748 3,145
2011 3 2,200 3,098 4,095 6,295 19,000 2,995
2011 2 2,075 2,995 4,095 5,295 6,675 2,896
2011 1 2,200 2,970 4,300 5,998 12,000 2,895
2010 4 2,250 3,000 4,395 5,435 11,500 2,950
2010 3 2,195 2,950 4,250 5,233 6,195 3,000
2010 2 2,100 3,000 4,499 6,698 9,100 3,000
2010 1 2,048 3,000 4,645 6,829 12,500 3,100
2009 4 2,100 2,850 4,700 6,588 11,500 2,900
2009 3 2,000 2,895 4,700 6,800 12,000 2,950
2009 2 2,000 2,795 4,550 7,673 14,700 3,100
2009 1 2,150 3,000 4,995 7,850 14,500 3,300
2008 4 2,295 3,185 4,700 8,000 20,000 3,200
2008 3 2,395 3,250 4,795 7,145 22,500 3,195
2008 2 2,450 3,220 4,795 8,000 15,000 3,200
2008 1 2,350 3,195 4,948 8,000 23,500 3,200
2007 4 2,300 3,200 4,995 6,695 12,500 3,200
2007 3 2,295 3,250 4,895 7,250 10,500 3,200
2007 2 2,275 3,220 4,630 6,530 13,625 3,195
2007 1 2,250 3,195 4,800 7,500 12,900 3,264

'nada that's great info, thanks for posting. Don't know why they bother splitting out 4+BRs though - there's clearly a SSS issue going on there. Even 3BRs see some pretty wacky jumps QoQ, but I believe the supply there is more than high enough to make it a good barometer.

Overall, pretty clear rents have been flattish since 2007. Not sure why anyone should feel like a chump for renting...

ah, very helpful.

of course, you can also factor in real $$$...

and is the data out there pre 2007?

there was that chart that went back to the 90s. I'm going to assume rents were higher in 2007 than the few years before...

also, what I think I've noticed, anecdotally obviously, is compression in the market in terms of luxury. I feel like the "basic" 1-2 beds have gone up a bit... but the ability for landlords to charge more for the fancy ones (going beyond doorman/elevator into premium finishes, amenities, newnewss, etc)... has gone down. O

swe (or anyone for that matter), are you seeing much in terms of free months or other giveaways that this kind of data probably isn't factoring in as well?

I am not seeing a lot of free months... but I haven't seen free months a whole lot really for the last 2 years either...

SWE, you can see the pre-2007 data here:

http://aggregate-data.millersamuel.com

Not broken up by apt size, though.

"My theory for this has been dropping wages in places like WS, compressing demand on the low-end while reducing it at the high-end."

That is a great theory, since that is the same theory the article posits!

So yes, I agree, renting has been smarter than buying for the past 5 years, still.

Interesting also from the actual report that PPSF is up 7.9% YOY both with and without concessions. So this is a real increase.

Its notable that uptown rents per SF increased the most. I can see it by who has moved into the area and my building recently. People priced out of where they really want to move are definitely creeping more and more into Greater Harlem.

http://www.elliman.com/pdf/3b8b6893f7c710bea9a425389a542be099fe1bf7

rents on the upper east side are down 2.2% and midtown 4% for studios and one bedrooms.

yes-- when they say "rents are up" it has already been established it does not include every locale in Manhattan. LES, ME, BPC have been mention as in decline. It could be true for the UES too.

looks like the west side is still strong ..

so what we've established so far is that rents & prices are on the decline in the last 5 years ?

"So, yes, rents have come up so... but looks like they're still relatively low."

Relatively "low"??

By whose standards, in a city where the median HHI is $57K, how could it possibly be sustainable that the median rent is over $2K??

Matt, the Median HHI in Manhattan is $68k and the average is $113K. But point taken.

Who gives a crap what the adjective is?

So the median household income is $68K, and the median rent is $2K. The People are paying only 1/32nd of the their income on rent. That hardly sounds burdensome.

I say raise the rent.

Okay, I'm not so great at maffs. 1/34th.

Raise the rent even more.

/12

0.0024509803921568627450980392156863

"Relatively "low"??"

Rents don't look all that high to me, I was renting out a studio on the Upper Westside 25 years ago for $1,250 per month.

Jason, the median HHI for NEW YORK CITY is $59K.

"Rents don't look all that high to me, I was renting out a studio on the Upper Westside 25 years ago for $1,250 per month."

They've doubled since then.

Have tenants' INCOMES doubled since then?

Yes, I know Matt. I was showing what it is in MANHATTAN. The article was about MANHATTAN. Since the average HH income in MANHATTAN is $113k give or take, its not as extreme as one might think. But I do get your point about NYC. However, if you take out 1MM residents living under rent control/stabilization and another 500k in HUD housing, I wonder what the median and average HHIs would be.

Take them out and do what with them?

Drown them in the Hudson?

Have tenants' INCOMES doubled since then?

I would hope so, 25 years is a long time, otherwise it's time to move out of Manhattan.

"Take them out and do what with them?"

Look only at the incomes of people in market-rate rental or owner-occupied housing. Its surely significantly higher than the overall NYC averages or medians, and ESPECIALLY so in Manhattan, i'd gather.

Here is the data BTW: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36/36061.html

"I would hope so, 25 years is a long time, otherwise it's time to move out of Manhattan."

Actually, they have not.

In fact, they've barely budged.

in 1987 the median US income was $23,685

in 2010 the median US income was $47,002 (close to double)

http://www.davemanuel.com/median-household-income.php

"I would hope so, 25 years is a long time, otherwise it's time to move out of Manhattan."
Actually, they have not.
In fact, they've barely budged.

What industry are you in?

Matt stands corrected.

That should probably be his signature.

"In 1987 the median US income was $23,685

in 2010 the median US income was $47,002 (close to double)"

Sweetheart...please. Try reading your own websites first. The far right column? It says "Inflation Adjusted ".

Here are the REAL money numbers:

In 1987 the median US income was $47,848

in 2010 the median US income was $47,002 (DOWN)

http://www.davemanuel.com/median-household-income.php

Where is Media U.S.? Kansas? Probably a nice place.