4/20 Open House Report

ten, you gotta stop going to the "no dogs" places!

Wow. Didn't anyone else go to OH's? Is it just me or has there been a decline in buying interest recently?

Today was the first day of Passover. Most coops didn't allow open houses.

I learn more from these open house reports than I learn from my realtor. Thanks everyone who takes the time to enlighten the rest of us.

There were fewer OHs due to Passover but not the same dearth observed over Easter. I haven't been to an OH in several weeks. I agree with iMom, I think more people are getting skittish and quality property is few and far between.

iMom next time go to a OH on Christmas day and report back to us. Let us know if there is a decline in buying interest for that day as well. Also please let us know since you have absolutely no intention on buying why you even go to the open houses to begin with.

I accompanied my friend who is working with a broker to a handful of OHs in Chelsea, Tribeca, WV, and GV. These were 3BRs that ranged from 1800 sq ft to 2200 sq ft, generally in the low to upper $2mm range.

Because these were in his areas of interest, I did not pay as close attention to them. What I did find interesting was how little traffic there were in the OHs. As fas as I could tell, we were the only visitors to each of these listings.

I did ask my friend's broker (Corcoran, FWIW) about his view of the RE market, and he said that that he thought inventory was light as potential sellers were pulling back given the market uncertainties, and that buyers were wary of overpaying. I asked him about the inventory level, and he said that a healthy level would be about 9500 units, and that we were a third short of that target.

Awww, you're welcome NYRENewbie. I was once interested in a small 1br at 224 E. 11th St. I thought it was overpriced, my broker (at the time) thought it was a good deal. The seller chopped the price 5% a few weeks later. But that wasn't the biggest discrepancy between my then broker and me. A Google search turned up a sex offender report. A guy who had molested two young boys worked in the building. It's across the street from the 3rd St. Music School. I have a friend who teaches there who forwarded the info to her administrator. Your broker will never care as much about your future home as you do.

My very secular self didn't know it was a holiday until I read it here. My open house search turned up what looked like a typical number. I saw many OHs last week, and if you read my 4/13 report, you'll see that activity in all of them ranged from slow to dead. I thought it was a very bearish indicator in at least my part of the market.

khd, you're right. Those dog-deniers don't deserve our traffic!

spunky: You're right...I have ABSOLUTELY NO intention of buying...not at these overpriced levels. If the right apartment comes along with a seller that accepts reality and prices their unit accordingly, I'm ready to pull the trigger in a heartbeat. Until then, I'm very happy watching inventory grow and days-on-the-market accumulate. Time is on my (the buyer's) side. Besides, I've gone to enough OH's to know that most sellers are still in denial about the state of the market and overpricing their product. Doesn't matter if I skip a week, all those apartments will still be on the market next week.

iMom et al: Eveyone who does not subscribe to your sentiment is in denial. Forever. The stores, restaurants, property owners and general sellers of whatever are IN DENIAL since their price is too high (according to your estimate).
My open house yesterday had enough people to yield two solid offers at asking price.

westelle,

Perhaps you served your client by pricing the apt well. Care to share the price/sq ft and neighborhood?

Westelle: not exactly sure I understand your point about restaurants and "general sellers of whatever." I think iMom was commenting that most properties are taking longer to sell, and *optimistically priced* apartments are sitting on the market untouched, so there is not as great a sense of urgency to see them.

More importantly, if you received two solid offers at asking price, your property was probably priced appropriately, so congrats! Do you have a link to the property you could share with us? It would be a refreshing change to see a nice place.

Tenemental: Was the loft at 111 4th Ave 8G standing height? Do you think it would make a nice rental unit (also do you know if the coop allows rentals)? Thanks!

KISS: $900 psf; pre-war elevator, West 100s off Central Park.

Ah, that explains it. Sub-1k/sq ft price, which seems to be a market clearing price right now. The stuff I saw this weekend was closer to $1500/sq ft and up.

buster2056: I don't think this is the right forum for a private link. But if a deal falls though, I promise to post here about it, and if you want to, I'll provide my email.

buster2056, if you and your shoes combine to a height of maybe 6'2" I'd say no. Also, there is a very low ceiling beam you have to duck under. I don't know about the co-op's official policy, but like I said, the woman showing the apartment was renting it. The owners bought at least more than 4 years ago - the sale isn't listed here. I can't imagine that anyone buying near the current asking would get nearly enough rent to cover the monthly nut. Quick math: $698k purchase @ 6.5% w/ 20% down + $936 maint is a monthly total of $4465. Add in opportunity cost and you're close to $5k/mo (more if you're a good investor). I think you'd take a bath trying to rent it out.

iMom in some cases I have to agree with you. I have to wonder why some sellers are pricing their apt over 20% of last years value. I too would like to see them come down a bit but I'm not willing to spend my time going to them..

If you are in the market and you plan to buy at some point, I think it's only wise to check things out although you cannot be duped to buy something that's outrageously overpriced. I don't think it's a pointless exercise or it's a waste of time. Surely, it cannot be as wasted as some people's amount of time they spend on this board. I would love to get something from Brooklyn Heights, but what I'm looking for would be hard to come by and there will be compromises and concessions (because not everybody has unlimited wealth where they can just get anything without price as a main factor) but in the end, it has to feel right and you can live with it.

I went all the way to Mill Basin to check out luxury condominiums in a gated community with 2 beds/2 baths yesterday that's priced as much as a studio in Brooklyn Heights. I don't plan to buy there, but I was curious to see it anyway and make comparisons. The difference is staggering, you obviously get so much more in Mill Basin but then you're far from everything else and the place is ideal for people who like suburban life. I'm even planning to look at houses in Brooklyn and the Bronx and see what's a better value. Am I willing to compromise the location to get a much bigger space? Or am I willing to live in a much smaller space so I can be closer to work? I cannot make an informed decision if I don't check things out.

I have to concede though, I don't look at places that is way out of my price range, because I see no value in doing so...and I don't like to wallow in wishful thinking. :)

westelle: Obviously, if an apartment is priced appropriately, it will move. There's no dispute there. The problem comes with sellers who have had their properties on the market for 200-300+ days and haven't adjusted their prices since then. All the data is available on Streeteasy - gotta love transparency! There is a woman in my building who has listed her apartment for sale at an astronomical price since early last year. When I suggested that she would have better luck adjusting down, she said that her broker still thinks she can get original asking price. And she wonders why her apartment isn't selling...

spunky: I think that sellers buy-into a lot of what their brokers tell them, which is a much rosier picture of the market than is reality. That's the nature of the business. It's like walking into Barney's and trying on a suit and then asking the salesperson how it looks on you. Of course the salesperson is going to tell you it looks great! Brokers are telling sellers what they want to hear to secure the listing.

Everyone: I also think that sellers hear these reports in the press about how Manhattan RE is up 30-40% over last year and they think that that applies to them, even if most of that increase is due to the super-rich flipping their units to the super-duper-rich. And before anyone flames me for disregarding these numbers, its because they are outliers, which by definition skew the numbers and need to be omitted before properly analyzing a data set - hello, Stats 101.

I have never, ever called for a RE crash. I just think that the market is considerably softer now than it was 6-9 months ago and that all participants - buyers, sellers, brokers, mortgage lenders, etc - have had to adjust their expectations and strategies.

Tenemental - what did you think overall about 111 Fourth? I remember almost bidding on 1D early last summer - I was going to bid ~10% under ask, but there were already 2 over-ask bids, so I removed myself from the process.

It's a classy building, nice interiors, but the escort thing was a bit much. Maybe it had to do with Passover, but it could be a sign of an uptight board. Maybe good for some, but not for me. I didn't get to see the roof deck, which is probably one of its best features. I only saw the lofted studios; it's hard to imagine them appealing to a broad range of buyers. Not sure I saw enough to get a true overall impression. I can see the appeal of 1D; a true 1br w/ a huge wall of windows and a bonus loft space, but it seems overpriced to me for the 1st floor (I guess it did to you as well). Not sure it would have done so well now.