What Happened

They all still think Y2K is still going to hit.

Not sure about the recent units in contract (I’ll be curious to see the sales prices), but the last 1br to close on 1/15/08 was 10AE at $520k. 20AE closed on 08/29/05 @ $530k, 3AE on 07/20/05 @ $471k, 11AE on 05/04/05 @ $400k… Not exactly raging appreciation since 05. The current sellers w/ true 2brs + terrace have both price-chopped to $859k and $849k. If the recent Elliman 1100 sf measurement is accurate (yes, big if), they’re under $800/sf. I say good luck to the sellers holding firm at $695k. Maybe the new buyers think it’s a good deal given all the development going on nearby. It’s not a neighborhood I would want to live in, but I was in the area on President’s Day and there seemed to be a lot of families in the kid’s park at the top of the hill on Riverside.

Things are definitely softer and more negotiable in the East Village, and even in the non-lux West Village. Open houses range from slow to dead, and we’re supposed to be in the busy open house season.

julia- Doom and gloom attitude are predictions that take time.I myself am very bearish on the NYC housing market. I have predicted 20-30% declines to be reached in the next 12-18 months. Housing market do not just stop and decline overnight. I have been see a larger than expected decline already. I have seen some properties decrease as much as 15%. Now I know those are not the norm across the city, however one thing that I think we can all compromise on is that price increases are over for now. The next logical move is down. I'm an owner and still think that price will fall greatly in the next 12 months. Julia I wish you the best of luck in your search.

I love it... gloom and doom takes time.... yeah right, in the long run, we're all dead. And if we wait around long enough, we'll have more war, pestilence and depravity. Manhattan property may be totally worthless by 2525.

Seroiusly though, no doubt that some parts of the market are a little soft now, and will remain so for the next year or so. But don't expect quality properties to drop in price by much. Could be median prices will drop by a few percentage points but I would not expect too much in that regard. And it may not last very long... hard to know when to catch a rising meteor.

I know..... "it will take time to come down".....what the ---- is that?! That "TAKES TIME" manipulation has been played by doom and gloomers for all eternity. It's humn beings susceptibility to illusion and imagination that they prey on or try to arouse. Get real man, prices will, with high probability, be higher in the near and distant future.

julia: "Lincoln Square and large studios last year were high 300's now high 400's." are you really suggesting prices went up 30% between last year and this year? come, now, not even spunky and steveF, die hard bulls and ponzi fans - would make such an audacious statement!!

just check out the number of listings in streeteasy that have dropped prices vs raised prices, and that should give you an indication.

now, whether one particular apartment went up or down is largely immaterial.

Maybe you should go ahead and buy - maybe you will get another 30% increase next year. Extrapolate that to the next 100 years, and maybe your apartment will be worth more than GDP of New York state!!

I hope everyone is correct...

Why didn't you buy last year? I think you have use your own set of info (finances, how much you like property etc., long-term holder) and determine if something makes sense. . .hopefully that vs. what people say on here.

I read this on BusinessWeek. Thought I would share with you.

NEW HAVEN, Conn.

An influential economist who long predicted the housing market bubble cautioned Tuesday that the slump in the U.S. housing market could cause prices to fall more than they did in the Great Depression, and bailouts will be needed so millions don't lose their homes.

Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of the widely watched Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, said there's a good chance housing prices will fall further than the 30 percent drop in the historic depression of the 1930s. Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15 percent since their peak in 2006, he said.

"I think there is a scenario that they could be down substantially more," Shiller said during a speech at the New Haven Lawn Club.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D90712QG1.htm

http://www.millersamuel.com/research/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1096034424rIMRe

The above is old, from 2004, but it addresses the "Bubble concerns" being talked about in 2004. Read the article Business 360...it will help get a clearer picture. BTW it was updated a year later.

girlygirl77 I did buy 18 months ago...I thought I could live in a studio being that I work, travel, etc. but it feels just so small.

Julia, the next year or so would probably be a good time to buy with flat prices. There are going to be exceptions both ways (i.e., severe drops in some places and continued sharp increases in others) but generally I think things will be fairly flat in terms of list prices.

The key thing is to recognize that it is a buyers market, and there are deals to be gotten out there. Interest rates (though rising a bit) are still at fairly low levels.

So I would say there's no need to be in a rush, but I am not sure it's worth not buying a property you really love just because it might be 2-3% less next year. I'd offer 5-7% less today and see what happens (and/or major concessions on closing costs). You may be surprised.

OK I understand better now. Will you need to sell in order to buy the new place? Because the haircut you benefit from will also hurt you if you sell.

Julia - you also need to think about all the transaction costs/ taxes that you incur with buying/selling. Figure those into your decision as well. Why not rent your studio out and buy a 1BR?

That's where i was going stealth - i.e. she should rent it out. It looks like she probably lives in a co-op though (as she is looking at 1bedroom co-ops) and those will have varying rules on renting out, some of which are quite restrictive. . .