2d Sharper Point of Inflection for NYC Sale Prices

The Cypriot govt is only safeguarding those savers with less than €100,000. Thats not the demographic who is going to rush to 432 Park or 15 CPW but who knows? The "real" money greater than €100k is still tied up by the govt last I read.

uwsbeagle:

1. the actions of the Cypriot Government could be followed by other
bankrupt European nations like Greece, Italy, Spain. or France

2. the risk and fear of such confiscation should spur a rush to
invest bank deposits into US assets, including real estate

3. although as yet unmentioned, the Cypriot action could also cause
another European banking crisis by causing depositors to withdraw
tens of billions of dollars from European banks

4. which itself would encourage flight capital

What about the water wars?

That CRIPTONITE GOVT BULLSHIT better not hit da U.S. I already took a couple of grandma mattresses to store my mula just in case.

1. Another catalyst is strong bank stock prices, People complained a lot about getting a large percentage of their comp in stock in 2009 and 2010. Some of the stock is now beginning to vest with handsome gains. In addition, 2012 bonuses were not so bad for people who are employed.

2. Naturally higher stock market helps every one.

3. No one is talking about how much further downside in real estate. That mentality has changed.

4. You can keep your money in bonds and hope that rates do not up or you can effectively short the bonds by using the bond portion of your portfolio as downpayment, take a long dated mortgage and lock in a big percentage of your rent. There are still coops in decent areas at just over $1000 per sq ft. Of course, you need to believe in point 3.

"2. Naturally higher stock market helps every one."

A higher stock market only helps people who own stock. Those who hold cash -- and isn't this what co-op boards want? -- lose out twice: to government-sponsored inflation, and to stock-market-gainer buyers who now have higher budgets. Thus the gap between the rich and the ordinary grows ever wider.

Rents are being increased in Manhattan.

Coops consider stock portfolios liquid as they can be easily converted to cash. Some coops with 50 percent down etc may only consider cash liquid but these are small percentage of overall market. If you do not own real estate, you did not buy stocks, you better be rich not to worry about down payment and liquidity requirements. Otherwise, you have been terrible investor.

And the Martians? What about them?

Martians are stochastic investors, so nothing to worry about, Brooksie.....

here are the main factor you need to know before discussing NYC RE market:

1. the fucking obama and bernanke keep printing money and debt like there's no tomorrow
2. the corrupted government continue to ban foreclosure to keep the mortgage backed securities alive
3. more and more rich chinese want to move their illegal money to the usa
4. more and more rich europeans want to move their illegal money to the usa

It would be nice to hear from our board's brokers and active buyers
concerning the hypothesis of this thread

i m an active buyer you are looking for

Caonima:

1. what are you looking to buy, and where
2. more importantly, what have you been observing since the start of 2013

So now we know that some hard assets are more reliable than liquid bank accounts.

Of course that doesn't mean that NY RE is safe. After all the asset cannot be moved. It is a fairly illiquid market as even in a hot market it will take months to close a deal, and in a cool/cold market that could become impossible without reducing prices. On top of that it is an asset that costs to hole and where the holding costs are not fixed. When those public unions want their pension dollars and can vote in the next mayor or city council foreign owners won't have a lot of leverage to protect RE taxes from rising.

European officials saying that the Cyprus bank confiscation plan should be viewed as a template for the rest of the region. Truly frightening and definitely going to be a catalyst for even moderately wealthy people to move money out of the Euro zone.

There is far worse going on. Just cant put my finger on it.
Do note Turkey started up with Israel after plans to involve Cyprus in it's recent windfall gas discovery.
That is "greek" cyprus vs "turkish" cyprus.
What's scary is how little is written about it.

A flotilla incident, a few arab springs later...but now you have Israel giving Turkey their ridiculous apology, paving the way for a corridor to Iran, and Cyprus gets a shittier bailout than the others.

I think the Euro is an epic disaster and the warts on this nouveau european colonialism by France and Germany are showing through.

The world is poised for war.

Truthskr10: interesting premise and you're correct that our mainstream media doesn't cover non-US events very well at all. As for neo-Colonialism on Germany's part I would disagree. Remember that Mitterrand forced Kohl into the Euro back in the 90's in order for France to approve German reunification. France wanted a German nation fully economically tethered to the rest of the Continent; history up to that point can't really fault him for that logic. I actually love that Merkel did not cave in this latest skirmish in the bail-out wars...she stood her ground and did the right thing for her constituents and the German taxpayers who have already forked over more than half a billion to keep the Euro afloat. And screw Russia and their oligarch money parked in Cyprus as well...although it'll be a cold winter in Berlin when Moscow turns off the gas pipelines next winter.

"German taxpayers who have already forked over more than half a billion to keep the Euro afloat"

Is that figure correct? Half a billion euro is like five euro per German person.

What's going on in Cyprus is absolutely disgusting. Diligent savers are the bedrock of a civil society, and *they're* the people the government confiscates money from?

TZ, billion s/b trillion. Good catch. What's going on in Cyprus is not disgusting when you consider the inflated banking sector is fueled by Russian tax-evaded and laundered funds. Too f'ing bad. You wanna play, you gotta pay. Or they should go back to their p.o.s. Cypriot Pound.

Even if 99% of the money in Cyprus banks was stashed there by corrupt Russian oligarchs, that doesn't justify stealing one cent from the ordinary Cypriots who put their money in the bank branch on the street where they work. "Play and pay"? More like "be an upstanding citizen who saves his money and then has the government steal it like some kind of feudal lord".

Didn't all this happen because the Cypriot bankers bet on high return Greece debt expecting there would be no haircut?

TZ: looking at it through the lens of an ordinary citizen who is having his money confiscated, you're correct. HOWEVER, who should pay? The Germans? The Dutch? The Finns? They're the only ones who are solvent. Either way you're stealing or misappropriating or re-directing funds from one law-abiding tax payer to another. So, morally speaking, is it better to have the Cypriots bail out their own nation or force another Euro taxpayer to bail-out some other nation? At the end of the day, it sucks no matter how you slice it but the Cypriots need to be the first to cough up the cash.

In Cyprus, will the first 100,000 be safe and liquid? In another word, if you have 120,000, then the first 100,000 be safe and the 20,000 will be locked up and someone will decide later that how much will be cut from the 20,000? or the whole 120,000 will be locked up. Does anyone know here?

250k is FDIC insured

Beagle, yes, how it started and on the surface it looks that way but the euro has effectively made countries like Greece and Italy highly uncompetitive in various fields that they used to be and destroyed a lot of their export trade while propping up the banker countries like France and Germany.

And yes it seems several ruskies turned Cyprus into their Cayman Islands but your taking down some proper business folk as well. It is the worst kind of thing to do for a system that relies so much on public trust.

Once again and it's been a couple months since I said it, reinstate Glass- Steagall.

And for the exchange experts, why hasnt the US dollar gained at least 20% over the Euro this year?

2 Euros now, Good Euro and Bad Euro

Following chaos theory, if a butterfly flaps its wings in the amazon will set off a chain of events triggering a huge run up in NYC real estate prices?

NYC has enough of its home made chaos to be impacted by the Amazon. A more quiet place, say C0lumbia C0unty might see an impact.