Answer this simple question.

I can already see the outcome of this thread:

1) Some people will say "Yes" and some people will say "No".
2) Both groups of people will rationalize their answers by coming up it stats, articles and quotes that support their view.
3) Both groups will find reasons to disparage or insult the other group.
4) The thread will gradually morph into a completely unrelated topic.
5) The tone of the posts will gradually deteriorate into name calling and finger pointing.
6) In the end, neither side will have convinced the other side of anything and we'll all move on to something else.

You didn't give enough details for anyone to answer this with an intelligent response.

In shareholders agreements sometimes you have a clause whereby in the event of a dispute person A can say I want out and person B offers to buy him out for X dollars. A then has the option to either accept the offer or if he so decides to buy B out at the same price that B offered to buy A out for. This potential action causes B to fairly value A's shares.

So to apply this to this situation, the question could be asked a what price would you sell or buy your own apt

Not sure if this makes sense actually in this scenario but await the impending mud slinging, name calling etc with interest...

Oh, and for the record...here's my answer to your question:

If the right property comes along (meaning few to no compromises in terms of location, layout, space, building, etc) at the right price (meaning prices that accurately reflect the economic, credit and supply conditions of the CURRENT market, not of the frothy & heady days of 2006-2007), I would recommend pulling the trigger, BUT ONLY with minimum 20% down-payment, monthly housing costs less than 28% of total income, solid expectation of future job security, minimum of 5-7 years time horizon and availability of mortgage financing.

The problem is, most of these conditions are not met by most people or most currently available properties. Until all these conditions are met, you're actually better off waiting until the right opportunity comes along rather than jumping into an uncertain market.

Some frequent posters on this site will probably call me crazy, manipulative or misinformed but I stand by my opinion.

HOLY S@#T. Can anybody on this site just answer YES or NO. It's that simple. Stop with the BS and get a hold of yourselves. This is exactly why I asked this simple question. YES buy or NO don't buy. Either in Manhattan or the "it neighborhoods". OK does this help. I didn't think that it had to be explained any further than that. If you are unable to answer this simple question at this time only means one thing. NO. If you need to analyze all the information to fit then it just proves the simple answer is NO. ONE MORE TIME WOULD YOU BUY NOW OR TELL A FAMILY MEMBER OR GREAT FRIEND TO BUY TODAY?

YES OR NO.........................................

dco, without additional details there's nothing to consider except whether the market will go up or down. So, you're really just asking the same question that comes up in practically every thread on here.

My answer is no. Better to wait until '09 and reaccess. Even if prices are stable, the inventory will be larger and there'll be more selection. I doubt you'll loose anything with waiting, unlike the previous 4-5 years.

yes

evilgenius- thanks for the NO, Thanks for playing

what an idiotic post. perfect example of what we're saying, its not the message but rather the messenger or more to the point the way its communicated. this guy just wants to start trouble.

YES - (and I just did)

"HOLY S@#T. Can anybody on this site just answer YES or NO. It's that simple. Stop with the BS and get a hold of yourselves. This is exactly why I asked this simple question. YES buy or NO don't buy. Either in Manhattan or the "it neighborhoods". OK does this help. I didn't think that it had to be explained any further than that. If you are unable to answer this simple question at this time only means one thing. NO. If you need to analyze all the information to fit then it just proves the simple answer is NO. ONE MORE TIME WOULD YOU BUY NOW OR TELL A FAMILY MEMBER OR GREAT FRIEND TO BUY TODAY?

YES OR NO........................................." dco

Does anyone know what the weather is going to be like tomorrow. BTW has anyone seen the movie Iron Man? If so did you like it? Would you recommend it to a friend?

yes.

great question. hope we all learn something...

spunky, dco: have you ever bought anything for over $100 and tried to read a review on it by an enthusiast? i'm talking about a home theater system, a car, a pair of friggin headphones. if you've read reviews, you'll note that there is NEVER a simple YES or NO answer to anything -- something as stupid as buying a washing machine, a pair of sneakers. the problem is, the world is somewhat complex. it's not just "you're with us, or you're against us". .... it's a lot of nuance and complexities. not because idiots like to hear themselves talk (well, maybe some of that too), but because there just isn't anything that is that easy. so why don't you stop getting all frustrated about all the CONDITIONAL STATEMENTS that are made.

p.s. Iron Man was good. really good.

iMom: please read the threads i started here:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3649-news-the-housing-market-and-economy-are-on-the-downswing
and here:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3648-news-the-housing-market-and-economy-are-on-the-upswing

Yes I would.

paul10003: Clever. Yes, Iron Man was a lot of fun. IM2 is scheduled for 2010.

If a person found a place to live it that they really like, and their life situation is right for purchasing, then of course they should buy. dco would have such a person give up a place that they love because of an unsupported view that prices will drop 30% in a year. I believe dco does not have a real sense of the amount of wealth and high income buyers exist in NYC. dco, as Jack Welch once said, on Wall Street, $100,000 is a tip. Even if Wall Street bonuses are down 20% from prior years, you are looking at around $30 billion. Yes, things are slower now, but that means the market is reverting back to crazy levels from previous ludicrous levels. The average salary and bonus for a Goldman employee is over $600k. The average for IB jobs at the top banks at last count I believe was around $300k (I'm not entirely certain but it is around that amount). And that does not include all the smaller hedge fund shops in NY that also do well, and the service companies - law firms, accounting firms, technology consulting, prime brokerage, financial printing, transfer agency, custodians, etc., that also make high salaries. And that doesn't include all the other industries in NY that have high income jobs - advertising, hospitals, entertainment, on and on. Based on your other thread, I can tell you that $165k is not considered great money in Manhattan. It isn't bad, but there are lots and lots of people that make much, much more. I can see why you think RE must come down because you don't realize how many high income earners are out there in NYC.

If you can't answer the question then it shows you are not confident with the state of the market. Please give me a break about all sort of variables. It's was a simple question.

LICcomment- stop putting words in my mouth I never said that If someone was in LOVE with a place they shouldn't buy it. People are free to make their own decisions. If I were a serious buyer, I would keep an eye on inventory and price. If they continue to decline then I would wait. Only after I was confident that the market has flattened would I get in the game.

I think people love to make things much more complicated then they actually are. I still can't believe that some people have a hard time answering this question.

OK dco, pop quiz - a person in NYC sees an apartment that they really like. They like the location, layout, everything and plan on living in NY for at least a few years if not longer. They have 20% to put down and a good, stable job making good money by NYC standards. Simple question - do you recommend they pass up the apartment and wait? Do you think they should take the chance that if they wait for a year, prices could continue rising and by that time, after having to search again for an apartment that they like just as much, that it will cost them even more?
Does dco advise that person to pass up on buying an apartment now and wait? Simple question.

Plenty of wealthy people in the Hamptons; hasn't stopped record numbers of lis pendens proceedings in Q1 08. Obviously many of these aren't primary residences, but failing to cover that vacation home is a leading indicator, perhaps?:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/05122008/news/regionalnews/trouble_in_li_paradise_110497.htm?page=0

"Corcoran broker Susan Breitenbach said young Wall Streeters who gobbled up trophy properties in recent years are starting to suffer. She recalled getting calls from Bear Stearns employees desperate to unload their East End homes after the company's recent implosion."

"Another top-selling East End broker who spoke anonymously said the area was bracing for fallout from impending Wall Street layoffs.

"That wave hasn't even hit yet," he said. "A lot of them who bought second homes are already trying to shed them."

Oops, didn't answer the question. My answer would be pretty close to iMom's #5.

No at current price level

lIC- PASS- See how simple that was.

Read one of my old posts and you will see I stated that the Hampton's was going to be a good indicator. The vacation home is always the first to go when you are over extended. Just another indicator and I'm the one without knowledge of the Market. Perhaps people should pay more attention to my "crazy analysis". It just might save them some $$$$$$$$$$$.

FYI- Manhattan has been treated by Europeans as a second home market. They are 6-9 months behind our markets. What happens when they start to feel the pinch at home. The vacation home is the first to go. And guess where that vacation home is? You guessed it Manhattan. This will add to the inventory. Just another pert of my silly analysis.

I have to agree with LCComment he's the only one on this board that makes sense.

dco, with the dollar weaker than when many europeans bought they are unlikely to sell at present as any gain would be wiped out by an FX loss. With the dollar weaker funding any deficit on the property that is not covered by any rent is also cheaper in the "home country" currency.

And European markets are not in that bad a state

The old principle applies, location location location. A good property in a good location will hold its value over time. A badly located property will always be exposed ina down turn and will not be as good over the long term

Gas at the pump is almost up to $5 gallon, could go higher. Seems like a great time to live in the city and give up your car!

Buy now, kin! You won't have nearly as much wiggle room next year at this time. If I knew of a family member that was considering to get out of throwing money away through rent, he/she would need to fit the following criteria: responsible, had a high paying, stable, and non-transferrable job (let's say $100k+), had good credit and received a competitive rate, was buying in a growth area (under $1000/sq ft), considered a condo (to have the luxury to rent in a worse case scenario), did not over-leverage with over 28% of monthly costs and had a timeframe at least 3-5 years, then pull the trigger, Cowboy! This market is soft enough for serious negotiators. You're kidding yourself if you think one day you'll wake up to an email in your inbox with the subject line: "Buy Today To Time Market Impeccably!"

yes: if they are looking to live in it.
No: if they are looking to flip it.

lobo- Thank You for participating.

curious- That's a NO and thank you for participating.

dco - what is the point of theis post? Do you have anything useful to contribute other than repeating the same news?

manhattanguy- It doesn't surprise me that you don't see the point. It's very simple. Everyday people come on this site and discuss their opinions for better or worse. The object of this question is to personalize the decision. By make the respondent answer a simple question. IE Would you tell your mother to buy TODAY. Not tomorrow or 6 months from now. The answer tells everybody on this site where you stand in this market without all the BS.

SO manhattanguy would you tell your mother or another family member you love to buy in this market.
YES or NO>>>>>>>>> It's a simple question. There is no right or wrong answer. If you can't give a simple Y or N then everyone will assume you mean NO. Trying to quantify a simple answer proves that the answer is NO. If you say YES then that's all you have to say. Lets see how you do.

i have a better idea? why don't you ask street_easy to have a poll on their site?

manhattanguy- That's a great idea. By the way I guess that's a NO. Thanks for participating.

The only problem is that we will not be able to see voted how. I guess some people really don't want anyone to know how they truly feel about telling MOM to buy in this market. You see how making the question hit home changes the answer of some people.

quoting dco: "It's very simple. Everyday people come on this site and discuss their opinions for better or worse. The object of this question is to personalize the decision. By make the respondent answer a simple question. IE Would you tell your mother to buy TODAY. Not tomorrow or 6 months from now. The answer tells everybody on this site where you stand in this market without all the BS."

i find that so funny. so if i were an "everyday person" and came onto this site because i wanted to know more about whether i should buy or sell, then i should come on to a thread that tabulates everyone stating either YES or NO. ........ so you envision like 3000 YES's and 50 NO's, and then the everyday person says: "oh, gee, i guess i know my answer now. thank god someone tabulated that. because the last thing i wanted was a more nuanced answer for the biggest purchase of my life. nope. what i wanted was just a tabulation of yes's and no's." .... like siskel and ebert, thumbs up or thumbs down. STFU i don't want analysis. just simply yes or no!!!!!!!

lol.

i thought the entire point was that we were supposed to be learning from all this. and we take each post with a grain of salt, and learn how to judge the informative posters from the idiotic posters, and then the "everyday person" could then walk away with a clearer picture of things. i'm totally ok with the everyday person reading these threads, walking away feeling no closer to making a decision -- HELL, it's a big decision and maybe there's no right answer!

FYI dco, despite the fact that you may think i'm bullish about the market, it's nowhere near the truth. i'm at this point not sure where i stand about things. but that's ok. i'm just not a thumbs-up-thumbs-down sorta guy.

So dco has no problem costing his mother tens of thousands of dollars by waiting while the market goes up.

dco seems immature from his postings.

LICComment, that would be dco suffering from "loss aversion" straight outta prospect theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion). can't blame him for that, since many people have an easier time digesting lost opportunities relative to actual realized losses.

i'm not saying he's not immature, manhattanguy, i'm just saying...

The point of the question was to get people on the record about their true feelings. Like I said the resistance and inability to answer does prove that you don't think it's a good time to buy. That's OK either do I. Just accept the fact that you would sell my mother a unit today and tell your mother to wait. Don't worry I won't tell anyone.

god you are such a jackass.

"If you can't give a simple Y or N then everyone will assume you mean NO."

No actually most people, well intelligent people, would actually read the post and see what the poster is actually saying.

"Trying to quantify a simple answer proves that the answer is NO."

I'm going to assume you meant qualify and mistyped and not that you just don't know the meaning of the word "quantify." Reagrdless so it "proves" it huh, says who? Nice that you get to decide these things.

As others have pointed out, and lets face as is obvious to most, the decision whether to buy or not is contingent on many factors, many of which are personal. I bought a TV once for $6700, even though I knew it would likely be available for say $5000 a year later. Was that a stupid decision, well maybe for some people, but I wanted that TV and I enjoyed it for that year, so I was ok with it and I'll probably do it again in the near future.

ccdevi- That's a NO. Thanks for your participation. The more you guys try to explain why you refuse to answer the question the clearer it is that you guys think the market is going to fall even further. If you didn't think so the answer would be a YES. So just keep fighting. It is a simple question.

you are really amazing, even more than steve, actually way more than steve, you prove what a tool you are almost every single post. I've said multiple times that I think the market is heading downward and that I would not buy real estate in NYC right now. Ooh so you got me, lol. My god how do you stand being pummeled on these boards constantly. Now again, whether what's true for me and my situation is true for another particular person, who is to say, certainly not you.

Its very intelligent to just keep saying, you didn't say exactly what I wanted you to say, so I get to decide what you think. What a genius. And you continue to use that excuse to ignore all the points, many good ones of course, that people are making in response to your lame proposition.

ccdevi- IT was meant to be a YES or NO. A simple question that's it. I don't know why it's so hard to just answer the question. I'm beginning to see that Realtors are very similar to lawyers. Their never wrong and will argue just to hear themselves talk.

dco, can you let me know the answers to these questions? True or false:

1) Investing in the stock market is good
2) A 30yr fixed mortgage rate is good
3) Flying is better than driving
4) 20% return on investment is good
5) Getting married at 25 is ideal
6) Drinking wine is good for you

1. True
2. True
3. True
4. True
5. False
6. False

Next question. See how easy that was.

what if you:

1) are taking a cash advance on your credit card to do so?
2) plan to only stay in your place for 7 years?
3) are traveling from UWS to the EV?
4) risked 100% of your investment to get that return?
5) get a $10M inheritance if you get married by the age of 25?
6) have high cholesterol and have one glass per night?

Same answers?

lol, juiceman, too funny.
1) thumbs up
2) thumbs up
3) thumbs up
4) thumbs up
5) thumbs up
6) thumbs up

Hey, that's not fair! You're making the questions all complicated with your crazy "scenarios"!

That must mean you think the answer to all of the questions are NO.

Hahahahahaha!