where is my 3br/2ba for $1 to 1.249 million on the UWS

Tina: I think that one comes down to how you feel about a viewless apartment in a building where the main attraction is the view.

Well put West81st. Everyday you come home sorta rubs it in you're not looking at the river which isn't such a big deal if you had that same apartment a couple blocks to the east.

We rent in this building. Love the ameneties, staff and convenience to parks and subway line. It's fantastic especially if you have kids (playroom, pool, basketball court). 7E faces 96th street and may be quite loud (our apt is very quiet as it faces the courtyard). If you're looking for prewar charm and ambience in a unit, building, or block, look elsewhere.

^I was commenting on 275 W 96th.

kgg - you, joedavis and others seem pretty negative on 275 west 96th. You may be right that it goes for $1MM or less, I don't know. But I am still confused. I don't think I've seen a real 3-bedroom with a dining room and and outdoor space in a decent/nice area for under $1.5MM, and this one is $1.15MM. Have you seen other apartments in the city, coop or condo, that meet those criteria (or close) for that price or close? If so, please post (here or on another thread, as relevant). This is a serious question - we are sideliners because we didn't want to pay $2MM for an apartment that wasn't worth it, but may reconsider if there are options closer to $1-$1.3MM.

Karen - we know someone that rents in this building too, and their feedback is consistent with yours. How did you find your rental? We'd consider renting there, but would REALLY prefer not to go through a broker if it can be avoided.

As a final thought, there's a rental in the same building with the same layout for $5500 (which also seems very cheap compared to others I've seen). The rent-to-buy comparison doesn't seem that out of whack, once you factor in the tax deduction, which exist whether Steve likes them or not.

There is (or was) a book at the front desk that advertises available rentals. We walked in off the street and found ours that way. I've seen ads posted in the laundry room's bulletin board for folks looking for a spot in the building, so you could always ask your friends to post one for you. I think many units are rented in the building through word of mouth/no broker.

Karen - very helpful, thank you.

Getting less negative with each price chop. And my negativity stems from a general frustration with the cost of NYC real estate as a whole.

755 wea, a little too high at 1.4m, but coming closer I think.

Aboutready: Do you mean this one?
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/364276-coop-755-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

We'll see whether moving the listing from Elliman to Corcoran and pushing the price up by $45K improves the result. Both brokers are very good. As far as I can tell, the main edge Kory has over Geiringer is a team of pretty young assistants (although, from what impressed male friends have told me, Ann Lenane has an edge on both of them in that area).

W81, yes. I mentioned it because with its listing history, it looks like there may be room for negotiation. The maid's room seems very small, but the apartment itself seems spacious. The kitchen is awkward but livable for now, and there's a lot of possibility if someone wants to redo it in the future. I haven't read the entire thread, so I apologize if it has already been discussed.

Aboutready: I thought the flow was surprisingly good when I saw that apartment over the summer. Also, the maid's room is decent size (there were bunk beds in there, and it worked fine). Remember, in a lot of servant's wings, the bathroom is carved out of the sleep area's rectangular footprint. In this case, they're side-by-side, so the main chamber is almost a full-size bedroom. I also like the building. In short, I'm pretty surprised Elliman couldn't sell it. I've seen worse stuff move at similar prices in the past six months.

And it's "freshly painted" !!!

Finally saw 275 West 96th (see separate post on it)
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6275-275-west-96th-7e-open-house-report-sort-of

joedavis, after seeing it, I still think it might fit your criteria - very legitimate 3-bedroom. Decent shape, although does need some work. Not sure how important views are to you - they're mediocre. And location is a question mark too.

Here's a 3BR / 2BA that was recently listed under $1.3m: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/369038-coop-123-west-93rd-street-upper-west-side-new-york?email=true. Admittedly, this is not a great block and the 3rd BR is small, awkwardly placed and closet-less. But until this summer something like this might have gone for a lot more. I suspect this one might end up trading closer to $1.0m, the bottom of joedavis' range:

^^^ I would NOT classify this as a 3-BR - the so-called third bedroom is nothing more than a slightly-larger-than-avg maid's room. I actually have a real beef with realtors who try to pull that BS - why not just call it what it is, a 2-BR + maid's? No one in the market for a true 3-BR would look twice at this place.

You are correct, though, that this place likely would have listed higher earlier this year.

The unit that west81st provided the link for, at 755 WEA, was reduced $200K two days ago, to $1.2m.

seems like we have a winner... I mean 100 winners.

well we are starting to see things below 1.249 that could qualify but still at a rate only approaching what we saw early summer 2007 and most that have come up are not superior to what we saw then
The higher priced stuff is coming down faster, so my hopes are up that we'll get something soon that is reasonably exciting.
The 2br+maids or sorry excuse for a 3rd bedroom don't cut it
I am all for $500psf at this point which in the neighborhood of interest would be 2001 to 2003 pricing -- not at all out of line

If you are willing to wait a year or two.

'We'll see whether moving the listing from Elliman to Corcoran and pushing the price up by $45K improves the result. Both brokers are very good. As far as I can tell, the main edge Kory has over Geiringer is a team of pretty young assistants (although, from what impressed male friends have told me, Ann Lenane has an edge on both of them in that area).'

Hey West81st,
Are we selling apartments or holding some sort of beauty contest? ;-) Really, I could care less what the listing agent looks like, I would rather they knew something about the apartment they were selling. Too many times I ask questions and get no useful information from the agents who are showing apartments, just discouraging me from proceeding with the deal...

joedavis,

there are tons of 3 bedrooms in that range. and quite frankly, the idea that a classic six "doesn't qualify" is silly. many a happy child grew up in the maids room of a classic six.

Does anyone else have an issue with this floorplan? The kitchen looks to be LONG way from the family room - less than ideal for ent. and watchin kiddies while cooking. A killer in this market when buyers can nit pick to their hearts delight...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/364276-coop-755-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york

happyrenter -- I have been monitoring this market very closely for 1.5 years and recently.
If you are finding "tons" of 3br 2ba under 1.249 million, I would love to know about them (please post them -- will be much appreciated -- run the search on streeteasy and tell me where they are). There are under a dozen total and most have either no dining room or no reasonable 3rd bedroom
My reference point is the current apt I rent, and I have yet to see anything better in this price range since summer 2007 when I first started looking -- there were half a dozen then

eobrien: I think the best options are:
1) To use the dining room - which is a large square space and open to the kitchen - as a combined dining/family room;
or, if you don't need a third bedroom and prefer a formal, dedicated dining space:
2) Use the maid's room as a family room.
Added advantage to option 2: it makes the half-bath/laundry accessible without passing through a bedroom.

Then again, I clearly have a blind spot with regard to this apartment. There must be something wrong with it that I'm not seeing.

407PAS: I wasn't suggesting that male buyers SHOULD be swayed by the flattery of comely young assistants. But if you think it doesn't happen - in real estate and most other businesses, you're pretty naive. In my day, I was was on the sell side of a few deals that got closed that way. ;o)

West81st,
Ah, of course, I don't doubt that looks might work on some buyers but I see through that nonsense pretty quickly and it does not sway my decision when deciding whether or not to purchase an apartment.

So, West81st, did you used to be a broker but are no longer a broker? You mention being on the sell side of a few deals so it sounds like you are a broker. A few weeks ago, you told me that you were not a broker. I'm confused. ;-)

407PAS: Not a broker. Never been a broker. Never will be a broker. Hope that's clear enough.

Joedavis: If you're not afraid of some work, I would encourage you to call the agent on this one, if you haven't seen it:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/369494-coop-250-west-94th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

It's a wreck, but the layout might work for you, the building is good and - for reasons Bruce will explain - it's the ultimate in negotiability. The $1.549MM asking price is basically meaningless.

thx west81st hopefully not everyone at streeteasy will now compete to get this apt

Ok West81st,
That's all clear now, thanks. The "In my day" line made it sound like you were a former real estate agent.

Don't worry joedavis, I don't think I will be fighting you for that apartment. How much in renovation cost, $100k? $150k? Be sure you know what you're signing up for. I saw a horrible wreck of an apartment on the UWS that I would not touch for anything but maybe someone with friends in the building trades could turn it around. It is sad to see housing stock basically destroyed...

West81st,
By the way, I didn't mean to offend you by asking if you were a broker, I hope you were not offended. Since most people do not identify themselves on this board, it is hard to know the motivation behind some of the posts. I guess you like to look at property and talk about it, there is no law against that. I appreciate your knowledge of the upper west side...

I think a better example of "Be sure you know what you're signing up for" is #10C:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/350872-coop-250-west-94th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

As nice as it looks in the pictures, I think #10C is just a decluttered version of #15C with refinished floors, a nice paint job and an undivided dining room. They both need new kitchens; the one #15C is a total loss, the one in #10C looks like a 70s reno, with butcher block and peeling formica. The bathrooms are comparable; I prefer the ones in #15C, which look original, but that's a matter of taste.

Since both need a lot of work, I think that if you're going to divide the dining room anyway, #15C makes more sense. Otherwise, #10C might get the nod, although it means dealing with a noxious broker.

"Since both need a lot of work, I think that if you're going to divide the dining room anyway, #15C makes more sense. Otherwise, #10C might get the nod, although it means dealing with a noxious broker."

I find it humorous that a broker's demeanor would interfere with the sale of an apartment but I am sure it happens all the time. It sounds like a bad idea to be represented by someone who drives away potential buyers.

I don't know about 1M for a 3 bed on the UWS, but go a slight bit higher, price-wise and your search sounds like it overlaps with ours (we're pushing 1.5M given the interest rates) and I'm suddenly pretty happy with what I'm seeing--a new state for me. I think we will wait out the winter and have what we want at the price we want by Spring. We're being realistic about bedroom size and location, so I think we can comfortably negotiate a great price by April.

glad to hear that lostintransit.
I agree that at 1.5 things are improving now -- however below 1.4 (which is as high as I have been searching) the choices were still better when I first started looking in June 2007 -- yes there are a number of 3/2 choices in this range now but most are not nearly as nice as several we saw when we first looked.
Colors your view of the market, doesn't it?
of course coming and reading about all the huge cuts and the ongoing crash on streeteasy makes you wonder when the market will actually bestow you with its kindness.

I thought I posted this, but got lost somewhere. Look at 221W82. Maintenance on the high side but it's a condop with no board approval & no restrictions on renting. I saw an estate/ex rent-controlled Classic 6 that needed everything in the summer of '05 for 1.3m.

nyc10023: Nine price cuts, and something tells me they're just getting started. I didn't like that one at all.

I don't think we're talking about the same apartment. I wouldn't pay over 1m for a 5-room.

A couple of months ago, we discussed the "cute" little 3BR duplex at 310 West 99th. Now we know the price of cute: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/780221

i don't have insider access -- can you please post what it sold for?
thx

if it's unit 5, propertyshark says $950K on 12/24/08

Here's a new one. Small bedrooms and high-ish maintenance; but since it's a new listing, the real price is probably even lower.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372858-coop-2166-broadway-upper-west-side-new-york
2166 Broadway will probably be one of the first "nice" buildings where a 3BR/2BA in the $1MM-1.25MM range becomes the norm. And Kory is one of the big players who will close the gap between bid and ask.

W81:
re: 2166 Broadway, do you think a DR was converted into a BR?

Looks like the 2 brs in the back should be 1 br - a br is not 10 x 11. Where is the master br?

Wow - bunkbeds AND a crib in one small room. That's serious space saving!

dwell/cccharley: I'm not sure of the original floorplan. Small bedrooms are the norm for that building, though some lines have a decent master. Clearly, the main attraction of this listing is a nice central entertaining/family space, with bedrooms in quantity (though not quality).

This building sits squarely at the low end of full-service, pre-war prime UWS co-ops. FWIW, I don't think $1.15MM is a compelling price, and the apartment could trade substantially lower. What strikes me here is a shift in market tactics and psychology, with a key player like Kory skipping the "Let's test the market at $1.5MM" stage and introducing a new listing with a serious price from day one.

interesting -- did see a couple of apts in this building earlier. Believe on a higher floor and in the $1.3 range. If they were in mid-state America, they would be advertised as "doll house"
One of them was indeed quite nice with outdoor space, but if I recall correctly it was pushing $2 million
I agree that this will likely go under a million given that it is even more doll-like than the one I saw and a lower floor. The building is variable -- we walked down instead of taking the elevator. Lower floors were musty and smelly. Upper floors were nice.

I agree with West81st that Kory is likely saving her clients time by not testing at a higher price point.

But I think the Opera has serious issues. Rooms are small for starters. In addition, when the conversion took place years ago all the pre-war details were stripped from the apartments, so the units I have seen (and they have been many over the years...) lack charm. It is technically a pre-war building, but really only from the outside.

With regard to this unit, with the 2nd and 3rd bedrooms facing east from a low floor, you likely have a view of the backside of the Harrison, at this point.

Modifying /clarifying that this thread applies to what I have learned is a classic 7, i.e. 3 REAL bedrooms, 2 REAL baths and a maid's /home office

For this, I am still waiting..........
For what some may settle for as 3br/2ba, the benchmark in the UWS is fast approaching $1 million or less

Joedavis: I think $1.25MM for that apartment would represent a decline of 30-75% from peak, depending on the address, elevation, size, exposures, condition etc. It might get there, but I don't think anyone - even the gloomiest bears - ever said a drop of that magnititude would happen quickly.

west81st,

wouldn't 1.25 for a classic seven be even more of a decline than you say? i mean, a decline of 30% to 1.25 would mean from 1.8. but what decent classic seven could have been had for 1.8 at the peak. unless we are talking about a dumpy, tiny classic seven in morningside heights or on amsterdam in the high 90s this would represent a decline of at least 45% for a not-great classic seven, and on up way past 70% for a really good one. there are certainly excellent classic sevens that sold for more than $4 million.

joedavis, the market may end up where you are talking about, but there is a huge difference between 3 bed/2bath and classic seven--they just aren't remotely the same thing. if you want to up your requirements to a classic seven, that's fine, but it starts to be silly. i mean, the art market is in steep decline right now, so i might say "find me a decent rembrandt drawing for under $500,000." that would be highly ambitious. but if i change my requirement to 'a rembrandt self-portrait for under $500,000," then what's the point? expecting a minimum of a 45% decline for apartments in the most stable portion of the market (solid but unspectacular midsized family apartments) and then declaring that there is no bear market if you don't get it is silly.

happyrenter-- what is the huge difference between a 3bed/2bath and a classic seven (assuming the 3bed/2bath has a maid's room, then isn't it a classic seven?)?

buyer09: I can think of few differences, at least in shades of meaning.

1) "Classic seven" connotes pre-war. "3BR/2BA" is neutral with regard to vintage. If it's postwar, the likely size at the low end is around 1500 sq.ft. or even less, vs. 1800+ for a reasonable seven.

2) The maid's room is important. It's often big enough to be a fourth BR, or at least a home office. It also has plumbing, which gives you wet-over-wet options (think laundry) even if you kill the little bathroom.

3) The formal dining room can often be converted to a BR, or divided to create an extra BR. Generally, this leaves a windowless dining gallery, but in some cases (e.g. the "A" line at 771 WEA) you can still have a windowed DR.

In short, a good-sized classic seven can work pretty well as a 4BR or even a 5BR. A typical postwar 3BR/2BA, on the other hand, is just that. If it has a dining area that can be walled off as a BR, the apartment is likely to be marketed as a "flex 4BR" or something of the sort, with a correspondingly higher price.

2166 broadway #7B mentioned above just went into contract in less than a month. Price well and they will sell.

hsw9001: True that, with one obvious caveat. Until we find out the purchase price, we won't know whether it was priced "well" on the ask or through further negotiation.

HR: Correct. The seven you could buy for $1.75MM at the peak was profoundly crappy. It existed, though. For example, when the Sabrina insiders were trying to flip pre-closing, several unrenovated, undersized (but legit) sevens could be had in the $1.5-$2MM range. I think there were similar opportunities at 817 WEA. I don't know if there were any actual sales, though, because the prices the market would actually bear for those roach motels were even lower.

At the high end, I said $1.25MM would reflect a 75% decline. Except for the extreme right-hand tip of the bell curve, that's probably reasonable. The UWS sevens that traded above $5MM were generally quite special, even at the peak of bubble pricing; basically, that bracket was limited to view apartments in top CPW buildings. On Riverside, for example, $5MM+ was the province of eights and nines on high floors with full river views in top buildings.

Buyer09: Just to complete the thoughts above, regarding 3/2s vs. sevens...

Among pre-war apartments, a "3/2" listing is likely to be either a classic six in which either the maid's room or FDR serves as the third BR, or a combination apartment like this one:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372965-coop-410-central-park-west-manhattan-valley-new-york

That apartment certainly has three bedrooms and two bathrooms, but nobody will confuse it with a classic seven. Now, it's true that classic sevens often have exactly three bedrooms and two bathrooms, especially if the maid's room has been absorbed into a big chef's kitchen. But that kind of apartment is usually described as a "seven-into-six", to drive home the point that it has the bones of a classic seven and is priced accordingly.

Westie... as always an invaluable asset on SE. :)

west81st has it exactly right, but i'd put it slightly differently:
a 3 bed/2 bath apartment can easily be five rooms--a living/dining, kitchen, and three bedrooms. it can be post-war. a classic seven has three bedroom plus a maids room, a full separate dining room, a living room, and a kitchen--seven rooms. it is prewar. a classic seven should have an entrance gallery of some kind. a 3 bed/2 bath can enter directly into the living room. a 3 bed/2 bath can be as small as 1200 square feet. a small classic seven will be 1700+. a classic seven will have at least 2.5 baths, a 2 bed/2 bath will have, well 2 baths. they are not the same thing at all.

HR... I've seen 2000sq ft studios :) and I've seen 1000 sq ft 3 bdrms in NYC (2166bway)... LMAO... I guess a bunk bed can be sold as a duplex in NYC by a broker.... that's why I can't stand a listing w/o sq ft!

What do you think about apartments that are true classic sevens, as you define it, that are turned into sixes by combining the maid's room into the kitchen? I guess you call that a 7-into-6? Is there a way to assess how that affects the value of an apartment, or it's just up to individuals whether they prefer a larger kitchen or having a smaller kitchen and a maid's room?

buyer09: It's mostly a matter of taste. I would say that in general, if the kitchen is a smallish galley, expanding it is likely to add value. If the kitchen is already a decent size, keeping the extra room might be better for resale, assuming it's in good condition.

west81st is exactly right, again. basically, it comes down to this: if the original 7 had a larger kitchen, it is probably worth more than if the original 7 had a smaller kitchen. when the kitchen is small it is a hard choice but probably a good idea to combine--contrary to classic sixes, where i generally think the third bedroom is better maintained, assuming is is a usable size.

Thx all, esp W81 and HR, for the clarifications. They confirm that what I have is a classic 7, albeit we have modified the maid's room into a pantry and laundry.
It is in Morningside Heights but on a high floor, remodeled 2000 and maintained. We have so far had considerable trouble finding anything that compares in MH or UWS under $1.6-1.8 million. So, you see why I continue to show up here and be entertained.
I think it is not a question of how much of a discount such an apt would be from peak, but what its value should be in a non-hyped market. My anecdotal recollection is that we saw comparable apartments in 2000 (when we chose to rent) in the neighborhood of 600-700k. However, the maintenance was comparable to what we are paying in rent (don't ask -- it will make Steve do cartwheels)so there seemed no point to buying anything.
As the market took off and the disparity in price between the kind of apt we have vs what one could find for that nominal size increased dramatically, we felt rather stupid for renting. At this point, that emotion is chastened, and I am happy to look for a repeat opportunity, knowing better Manhattan values in the long run.
It is likely to still be quite a wait.

This is total speculation, but I'm gonna guess 7B sold for just under a million. Unless someone really fell in love with it, that seems like the natural place to bid in this market and I'm thinking the well-advised seller might realize this isn't the time to be holding out for an extra 50 grand.

joedavis,

i did not realize that you already had a classic seven--this changes things completely. you really ought to have started out by describing what you had and stating that you were only interested in buying something at least as nice. as it is, you have seemed to reject every option for any number of reasons. the story is this: you rent a classic seven in morningside heights. you want to buy a classic seven for under 1.25 million (probably, again, in morningside heights). ok, fine, but that's a pretty specific story, and pretty different from what we've been going on up to now.

thats great that you've had such incredibly low rent all these years, so as long as you have saved your pennies i'm sure you have done fine renting. i think your biggest challenge is going to be inventory, not price: right now, there are no classic sevens for sale in morningside heights--not one. there aren't any classic sixes either, although there are a bunch of 5's and 5.5's that would fit the original 3/2 designation and are now well within your price range. so i'm not sure that you are going to find what you are looking for--it just might not exist.

happyrenter
Yes you are right. However, until W81 and you laid out what a classic 7 was I had no idea that I was living in one. Of course it explains why every classic six, or 3/2 that we rushed to seeking a deal was disappointing.
We have hunted from the 70s to the 120s and have not yet found the combination of price and features. In fact, even finding something that is clearly superior to our apt has not happened at price points up to 2.5 million. Yes, we have saved the pretty pennies and watch them glow as the world melts -- though the long term prospects of this scenario are still daunting.
MH does not have the inventory we seek, and the things we have seen in the UWS still have not measured up. DOug Heddings $6 million listing on 17 W 67th was nice in some respects and I would pay the 2.2 million for it. I would also pay the 1.4 million for the 545 W 110th.
It may be that eventually these will come down to these prices -- may seem as weird as my original 3/2 for 1.249 to many, but I do think it will happen. The intrinsic value of these is closer to that than what it got inflated to as the balloon expanded.

joedavis, now you are really getting bizarre. not only was the original apartment description inaccurate, but your price limitation was inaccurate as well. you'll pay 2.4 for one apartment, or 1.4 for another...what happened to the 1.25 limit? game over, this is just silly. you don't know what you're looking for or how much you are willing to pay.

happyrenter, I think your comment is unrealistic. What people are looking for in an apartment evolves over time, and most people are willing to pay different amounts for different properties. joedavis has explained his thought process and its evolution, and I think it is odd to force strict superficial parameters to his search.

amity,

it is completely fine to change what one is looking for over time. but read over this thread: joe set out a very specific type of apartment and a very specific price point, and he repeatedly rejected apartments for coming in over that price. now it turns out that he would be willing to pay double that price for the right apartment. again, it's fine if things change, but if he was so flexible about what he was looking for, why did he set out such a specific task?

Joedavis: I wouldn't bother to buy if I were you. You have a classic 7 in MH - there is not a lot of inventory up there because CU owns almost everything up there. The same-sized apts 20-30 blocks down may go for <1.5m eventually, but you are paying rent lower than maintenance on an equiv. sized apt (rent-stab?) so honestly, keep saving your pennies...

happyrenter -- chill out. My specs for what i would actually buy have never changed
The comments on the 2 apts I named in the last post as worth 2.2 or 1.4 to me simply reflect my assessment of the max value of these overpriced apts
That has nothing to do with whether I would actually buy them or not
Actually if 545 W 110 which is ~ 2000 sq ft in MH were available at 1.4 I would stretch my budget and buy it.
On the other hand staying in my apt and seeing the pennies roll into jars has quite a bit of charm.
Bizarre is in the eye of the beholder.
agree with nyc10023 that there is not much incentive for the typical buyer to do this. On the other hand if your landlord offers a significant incentive to vacate the question pops up anon.

joedavis,

did i somehow misinterpret the meaning of this apparently straightforward statement?

"DOug Heddings $6 million listing on 17 W 67th was nice in some respects and I would pay the 2.2 million for it."

if that has nothing to do with whether or not you would buy the apartment i have no idea what you were trying to say. anyway, good luck to you.

happy --
I would buy that apartment. But I cannot.
willingness to pay (i.e. valuation) and ability to pay are not the same

Last sentence of the post you refer to:
"The intrinsic value of these is closer to that than what it got inflated to as the balloon expanded.
"

joedavis - not sure how much you're willing to divulge here, but I presume it would be fair to assume your rent is way below market? If so, how did you manage that? And, more importantly, what is driving your interest in buying in the first place? Just curious here...

newbuyer -- my employer gave us the rental deal on the apt when we relocated to nyc. However, they use this as a recruitment tool, and now offer an annual "bonus" to leave the apt so they can use it for other recruitments. The conclusion after exploring the market is that it is quite unclear that there is any financial advantage to moving out. We moved here after living large in the West -- 4000 sq ft house, then 3000 sq ft house, then "tiny" NYC apt. So, my wife had wanted to improve on our grad student type of housing. The conclusion has been that our apt situation is actually spectacular relative to equivalent value in UWS/MH. There were a few apts we saw in Harlem that could arguably be considered nicer and in the financially neutral range, but they were in Harlem....which may not be bad.

It became clear though that to really get an upgrade, and stay in Manhattan, a townhouse remodeled to our specs is the only clear choice. The financial aspects of this work only if we can get a "deal" on a shell and redo it. This is the case so far. Of course as the market corrects to reasonable levels, the options will change.

Given the situation described above, why even bother? This is a question we have asked ourselves. I don't get to keep the rental apt if I retire (20 years) or if I change jobs in Manhattan. So, if it is financially close to neutral (assuming even 2 to 3% annual appreciation and the historically low interest rates we have had the last several years) then the answer is not nearly as clear.
The incentive they are offering to move us out of the apt we rent is clearly substantial, but not enough to just do it even at the lower prices. The benchmark I had put up in this post was the upper bound for financial neutrality assuming a 5% annual appreciation and 6% interest -- at the time I originally posted this.
I did not realize that our apt 3/2 was actually what is called a classic 7, so rejecting most of what people pointed us to without much thought was easy.
Summary -- what you have is often more valuable than the green outside the gilded cage. Of course , the ridiculousness of recent real estate prices in Manhattan is another obvious point.
Real estate values relate to land values which increase during speculation, and not to the apt or building itself (which depreciates and requires maintenance).
There is still much developable property in places like Harlem, and other parts of Mnahattan. At least property that needs to be substantially upgraded, so even if one buys the limited land in Manhattan argument, it is only the recent speculation tied to the many factors discussed on SE that explains the last several years, and a strong reversion to value is inevitable. Yes, at that point it is interesting to buy in the 20 year scenario I am looking at.
This thread is clearly obsolete now since there are several properties on the market now that nominally meet this criteria.

joedavis: No worries about the wild goose chase - we wound up having fun tracking the UWS 3/2 market, even if it had absolutely no bearing on your situation.

I wouldn't be surprised if your employer starts trimming the incentives for vacating (assuming the number isn't set by contract). You might have to start regarding that "put" option as a wasting asset.

w81 -- you hit the nail on the head -- I forgot to mention that the one reason I have been actively looking is the realization that the vacate option will likely vanish faster than the rate at which the market declines. Still happy with either side of that coin for now

JD - I assume you work for CU? The thing is, if you decide to retire in NYC, you won't need a big space after your kids have left the nest and I don't know if you want to keep up a townhouse. It's a lot of work. It looks like the best buy for you may be a 2 or 3-family in West Harlem - live in the bigger space while your kids are younger, and move into a smaller apartment when your kids have left the house. I definitely think shells will go back down to 500k (saw one at 500k in mid-2004 all cash deal, west Harlem).