Home sales post unexpected April increase

State sees drop in number of real estate licenses

Here is another sign that Manhattan home prices will fall. If there isn't enough real estate agents to sell the properties how are they going to be sold. Usually those RE prospective agents know when the top of the market is and they are usually smarter than most when picking tops. This is a sign of a top.

Diane Levine of Sotheby's
By Sarah Ryley

From the May issue: Not long ago, during the peak of the real estate boom, aspiring agents would camp outside the state Division of Licensing Services' Lower Manhattan office to secure spots at licensing exams. The test was given once a week on a first-come, first-serve basis, and demand was so strong that pushing, shoving and even fistfights occurred. Since real estate has lost some of its sizzle, fewer people are signing up to take the exam, now administered in a more civil manner online. Also, fewer real estate pros are renewing their licenses after their two-year expiration period. The result is the first drop in the number of licensed agents — and brokers — in several ye

houser,
number of units sold went up slightly, but prices continued to go down.

The book Freakonomics has an interesting study on the number of real estate agents. There does seem to be a pretty strong correlation between the number of agents and transaction volume, but this seems to be much more a "wisdom of the crowds" phenomenon than because prospective real estate agents are particularly smart.

eric true but like I said the worse thing that can happen is for home prices to rebound in 2009.

houser, because you want to buy on a dip?

yes isn't that why most people on this site are rooting for a crash. Why should I be any different.

Real estate agents are smart?

This is the dip and if you hold real estate for a period of not less than 7 years you will be fine. Real estate is cyclical and it is a Long Term Ivestment, if you want to flip and short hold you will get hurt short term.No I do not want to see any more words of crash, I have bought on the dip and hold several properties including my primary residence. The people that hope for the crash to buy never buy anything and say why didn't I buy

zorter, "The people that hope for the crash to buy never buy anything...."

BS. I own, have owned, and will own. When the price is right.

There will be a crash - not sudden, but gradual, and it's starting: watch the inventory figures.

"This is the dip."

Property prices do not "dip." "Dip" is a short-term phenomenon, and real estate does not move significantly in the short-term. AKA it's illiquid.

I have to agree with stevejhx. He's knows more than the majority on this board and then some. Proof is the pudding with this prediction (check link below) he just made a few weeks back. Thanks Steve, and keep it coming. You da man!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3645-biggest-bear-market-sign-yet-deal-to-build-at-railyards-on-west-side-collapses

Steve and Houser
Does mean that even when you think a good deal comes around you should still wait. I have a contract on a 660 sq ft condo upper east between 75 and 79 built 1988 doorman, pool, roof deck completly renovated, granite countertops, jacuzzi bath, great open view for under 700,000. I will close on this and the historic rents in the building are between 3700 and 4000 This is like moving into a brand new apartment I still feel good about the purchase.I don't know when you guys talk you are refering to brand new construction

zorter 3700 4000 for a 660 sq ft condo on the upper east side in the 70's. Unlesss you're near Madison or Park Avenue you ain't getting 3700 to 4000 per month. Maybe downtown but not there.

Houser,
If this site is wrong which is very possible you are right but in the summer and rents are higher in the summer ( do you agree on that and by higher I mean 200-400 higher)apartments in this building and 2 of them furnished with a bed flat screen and chest of drawers for those numbers. Unfurnished in the winter and spring for 3200-3450.Mine is brand new never lived in and I might furnish it. I am increasing my rent at East 46th by the UN by 300-400 next renter who is out in July. This is a bigger Condop but from what I see rents are higher this summer by a lot.I\Apartments in this building have rented for those numbers. You are paying for the amenities and brand new apartment. I can see no less than 3500 and possibly 3700-3800 unfurnished for this unit

That's impossible zorter. According to stevejhx, owning is 2x more expensive than renting and he knows everything. It would be incredulous for someone that actually purchases apartments to rent in Manhattan could know more about making money than a Chelsea renter that spends all day in his apartment surfing streeteasy. Impossible, I just can’t believe it.

sorry it should be 3700-3800 furnished

zorter I am seriously recommending that you take a hard look at what you are doing before you sign the contract. The area you are looking at is loaded to the gill with inventory of apts and people who rent in that area for the most part want to a good value. Like I said unless your apt is near Madision or Park which I hardly doubt it is you are not going to have an easy time finding a tenant who wants to 3700 to 4200 a month for a one bedroom. Do you think a renter in that area gives a rats ass about a pool and a gym. Mostly they care about is low monthly rent and they'd join a health club and still save money over your place. On top of that your monthly CC's are going to be high. To me it doesn't sound like a good investment.

Zorter - what are the going rental rates in this building/ Do you have some RECENT stats from streeteasy? Forget about historic rents from a while back. I agree with Houser that your rental expectations may be high. I would take a guess and say that probably $300 - $500 higher than what you may get. I hope I am wrong for your sake, but unless this place has killer views and is high up in the sky, I really don't see how you are looking at $3700 per/month. Again look for rental comps in your building on streeteasy and how much time (average) they stayed on the market before renting.

Peace mate.