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Correcting stock market/ 10 year at 2%

Started by KeithB
over 11 years ago
Posts: 976
Member since: Aug 2009
Discussion about
The volatility in the stock market, s&p essentially erasing all it's gains for 2014 has to slow the seller biased momentum down. However will the dropping rates offset the negative affects of the equity markets? Not to mention a rallying U.s. dollar... I think we have to see a slowdown in sales, especially from those heavily invested in the market. Which we hope will create a soft spot that buyers can take advantage of and slow the wave of 'best and finals' ...hopefully :) Of course we'll see a market bounce at these very oversold positions, but will it be anything meaningful? Will equities continue on their rampant bull charge ? Wish I knew. So what do the SE pundants have to say? Keith Burkhardt The Burkhardt Group
Response by KeithB
over 11 years ago
Posts: 976
Member since: Aug 2009

"Pundits'

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Response by vslse65
over 11 years ago
Posts: 226
Member since: Feb 2011

"Wish I knew." Don't we all Keith.

Nothing changes in the mkts because people don't change (greed & fear).

"Bulls and Bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"

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Response by streetsmart
over 11 years ago
Posts: 883
Member since: Apr 2009

I remember when the Nasdaq crashed in 1999. It was then that the Manhattan real estate market started it's ascent. I don't believe the real estate market will go down, people have to have a place to park their money and with Europe having economic problems, Europeans may see the Manhattan market as a safe heaven.
That said every stock downturn is different.

To realtors, I have a loan product that can be interest only at competitive rates, it also can be for a loan amount above 417,000. Also can be a non warrantable building, condos only. Also have loans with high DTI requirements, 43-55% DTI, Fannie Mae is max 43%. Have excellent jumbo product with 85% LTV, mo mortgage insurance required, great rate.

Ellen Silverman
E. S. Funding Co.
Licensed Mortgage Broker
Esfundingco @ aol.com
NMLS# 60631

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Response by streetsmart
over 11 years ago
Posts: 883
Member since: Apr 2009

P. S. correction : no mortgage insurance required

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Response by steveF
over 11 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008

10% is a normal bull market correction which we are seeing right now(S&P off 10% from it's high). Economic fundamentals are too strong for much more of a sell off and the Sept-Oct selloff season is ending soon. This has been a slow steady selloff that hasn't generated much publicity or conversation(CNBC must be pissed) so the effect on buyer mentality will be minimal IMHO.

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Response by knewbie
over 11 years ago
Posts: 163
Member since: Sep 2013

Money is very cheap now. 1 year cd's dont even offer 1%. Where else does one invest ?.
Yes bank cd's are safe and mkt is bi polar, but at these levels, i would prefer to risk my $'s
on the mkt. Yes its the age old battle of fear vs greed. Over time, if your greedy when others are fearful, it has paid off well.

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Response by KeithB
over 11 years ago
Posts: 976
Member since: Aug 2009

CNBC is making up for lost time today :)

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Response by steveF
over 11 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008

:)

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Response by crescent22
over 11 years ago
Posts: 953
Member since: Apr 2008

It takes greater than 10% decline to shake the Manhattan real estate market. It will affect bidding conversations, but you need a 20% decline and one that happens without a bounce I would think to actually result in down prices on closed deals.

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Response by crescent22
over 11 years ago
Posts: 953
Member since: Apr 2008

2011 is the example. Market went down; debt ceiling crisis in full force; and Europe looked worse then than now but the NYC real estate market outside of greater bid/ask spreads on current negotiations didn't stop inching up and of course later reacted to the subsequent rebound in stock prices/better economy.

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Response by steveF
over 11 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008

wow down 10% then a huge rally..nasdaq ia even positive

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Response by KeithB
over 11 years ago
Posts: 976
Member since: Aug 2009

I guess just wishful thinking for a little breathing room for my clients...Nice bounce from lows however still erases just about all gains for 2014, that ain't chopped liver. The guy I follow (Dan Sullivan) and his team have warned us of an up coming 10% correction, that said he is still 100% invested. I sold some smh today early just to raise some cash. Most likely some more dovish comments from Yellen will ignite the next run...if we can can outrun Fox and CNN scaring us all to death about Ebola.

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Response by rb345
over 11 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009

Keith:

Because well-located NYC real estate is still rising in value, worries about the stock market can have
the effect of driving money into real estate as a safe haven and as a "hard asset", something almost
everyone longs for at some point in their life.

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Response by gothamsboro
over 11 years ago
Posts: 536
Member since: Sep 2013

Makes sense rb345, because it is still rising, it will continue to rise. If it is no longer rising, then a reason for it to decline may mean that it declines.

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Response by aboutready
over 11 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

Huge rally? Deluded. Safe havens and hard assets. Hard, maybe.

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Response by ericho75
over 11 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

Buy the dips!

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Response by ericho75
over 11 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

Wait, i think i see "greenshoot" again….

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Response by Riversider
about 11 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

The media effect on real estate purchases is only partially due to coverage of the stock market. There's a lot more that goes into it. Additionally with regard to NYC real estate a good part of the discussion focuses on the very high end which is poorly understood.

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

Considering the velocity of the plunge, seems like a bull market correction. But who knows. HY bond market still has not rolled over, so doubt this selloff will be that long lasting -- until HY market does roll over that is.

As for Manhattan, here are a few quick stats:

Supply - +4.8% in last month, but that is seasonal..happens every September. +6% from 1 yr ago. First time in a whle that supply has risen over the past 12 months

Pending Sales - +3.5% from last month, again seasonal..+21.8% from last year -- so in terms of demand, no softness yet

Days on Market - -6% from last month, and down 7.67% from last year..Only takes 61 days according to our #s to go to contract.

Condo $ Per Sft - +11.3% from year ago, I have a feeling the peak in terms of price action has already occurred 3-4 months ago. We have to wait 4-5 more months to see the #s for todays market

Manhattan Volatility Index - +2.4% in last month, but -11.6% since last year

What Im seeing --> early stages of stock correction may or may not rock this boat. Just too early to tell, as moves in equities takes time to infect buy side confidence..no major media effect yet here. Inventory still tight. Some buildings have in-bldg competition where seller doesnt have the leverage they had 3-4 months ago, but overall, still not much out there. Perhaps buyers have pause, sure, BUT I have to wonder if some buyers will look at what appears to be a minor slowdown from peak action 3-4 months as a chance to get a 1 on 1 negotiation with a seller for a desirable property - something most of my clients have not enjoyed for over a year now.

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Response by RealEstateNY
about 11 years ago
Posts: 772
Member since: Aug 2009

Do you realize that as of today, the Dow is up only 15% from it's 2007 high. That averages little more than 2% per year. People seems to forget that and only focus on the past couple of years returns.

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

seems like SE took out my pluses and minuses..oh well

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Response by rb345
about 11 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009

UrbanDigs:

1. nice to hear from you again
2. thank you for all of your RE market data

3. the Fort Greene market seems to be even stronger than in spring
4. particularly at the under $1,500,000 market

5. SE had 16 open houses in Fort Greene the weekend of September 28th-29th
6. as of yesterday there were only 9

7. and four to them were new listings on 7 or fewer days
8. with the cheapest larger apt starting at $1.35 milliom

9. and the cheapest larger apt on the market over 7 days asking $1.495
10. many recent listings on the market under 20 and even under 14 days don't have open houses

11. those numbers suggest a market with almost instant absorption of desired properties
12. with likely continuation of the spring's fierce bidding wars

13. Fort Greene might not be representative of the NYC market as a whole
14. or even Brooklyn

15 because of the billions of dollars scheduled for investment in BAM and its environs
16. and the gradual incipient transformation of Flatbush Avenue into Madison Avenue lite

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Response by rb345
about 11 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009

UrbanDigs:

1. nice to hear from you again
2. thank you for all of your RE market data

3. the Fort Greene market seems to be even stronger than in spring
4. particularly at the under $1,500,000 market

5. SE had 16 open houses in Fort Greene the weekend of September 28th-29th
6. as of yesterday there were only 9

7. and four to them were new listings on 7 or fewer days
8. with the cheapest larger apt starting at $1.35 milliom

9. and the cheapest larger apt on the market over 7 days asking $1.495
10. many recent listings on the market under 20 and even under 14 days don't have open houses

11. those numbers suggest a market with almost instant absorption of desired properties
12. with likely continuation of the spring's fierce bidding wars

13. Fort Greene might not be representative of the NYC market as a whole
14. or even Brooklyn

15 because of the billions of dollars scheduled for investment in BAM and its environs
16. and the gradual incipient transformation of Flatbush Avenue into Madison Avenue lite

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Response by rb345
about 11 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009

1. SE has 13 Fort Greene open houses this afternoon
2. but two are brand new townhouse listings

3. from my tracking of SE many such new listings are selling after 1-2 showings

URBAN DIGS:

4. what are you observing about velocity of sales and bidding yours, in your client
base and from discussions with other market participants

5. and how are different neighborhoods performing re those future market price indicators

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Response by rb345
about 11 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009

1. SE has 13 Fort Greene open houses this afternoon
2. but two are brand new townhouse listings

3. from my tracking of SE many such new listings are selling after 1-2 showings

URBAN DIGS:

4. what are you observing about velocity of sales and bidding yours, in your client
base and from discussions with other market participants

5. and how are different neighborhoods performing re those future market price indicators

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

thx, register for free for UD and then click on this link after you r logged in:

https://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?type=CONTRACT+SIGNED&nbhoods[]=-Upper+Manhattan&nbhoods[]=-Upper+West+Side&nbhoods[]=-Upper+East+Side&nbhoods[]=-Midtown&nbhoods[]=-Downtown&proptype[]=all&price=all&slevel=all

Shows pending sales trends for the 5 main nhoods of Manhattan - so overall, we are still seeing broad strength. If something is in the process of shifting, then its very early stage and not enough time has passed for data to show. Will keep eyes on it. You can do the same comparison chart for supply and days on mkt. The other charts you have to sign up as lite user for

As for what im seeing on front lines, sellers do not have the leverage advatnage they had back in Mar/Apr/May/June, but inventory still tight. Its just things r not flying off shelves like they were earlier this year. In the end, its about the sellers motivation and asking price. If it doesnt sell in 60 days, its the price. Seller may be fine with that if they have a higher # in mind, and who knows, stocks may rally to new highs and all of a sudden the mkt produces a buyer that bids it. But for now, consider the leverage pendulum still to the sell side, just a few notches lower than earlier this year.

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Response by rb345
about 11 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009

UD:

1. what you have written is likely true about the broader market
2, but what about market segmentation

3. which is the key to successful investment and pricing

4. isn't the market now beginning to segment more visibly, with growing gaps between the most
and least desirable neighborhoods or locations re velocity and seller leverage

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

check the nhoods comparison charts and u can see it. dont have time to investigate and update here. But yes there are differences acorss subnhoods. Key to successful investing? Um, buy low/sell high? Key to pricing, analyze the right comps and know how to make minor adjustments for views, time, renovation, etc to come vet out possible price opinion - the new UD.com does this. As for last item, not rly, as far as I see but Im just 1 broker and only work buy side.

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Response by rb345
about 11 years ago
Posts: 1273
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UD:

1. thanks for your quick reply and advice
2. market segmentation is critical to maximizing investment returns

3. in all major markets like NYC, and in all economic environments, there are differences in the
performance and future prospects of specific sub-markets

4. understanding those differences enables investors to avoid sub-markets which are likely
to underperform and own in those which seem likely to outperform the general market

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Response by gothamsboro
about 11 years ago
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urbandigs

about 11 hours ago

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Considering the velocity of the plunge, seems like a bull market correction. But who knows.

Urbandigs, do you have any credentials that qualify you to make these market judgments? Or does that not matter if you make a statement, and then throw out an aboutready-like "who knows?"

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
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ur bringing alot to the table here gotham, very insightful post.

i was a nasdaq equities trader for 6 years with Tradescape, which was bought by etrade and then spun off. no series 7 or 55 or cfa or anything like that. Madoff had better credentials than me. besides this is a forum and the thread is discussing recent stock market volatility, I dont pretend to know where stocks will be in 6 months or 12 months. let the experts do that. to me, the velocity of the plunge suggests a bull market correction with the hy credit market as reasoning.

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Response by streetsmart
about 11 years ago
Posts: 883
Member since: Apr 2009

Market up big today on Fed comments suggesting a delay in end to bond buying.

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Response by steveF
about 11 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008

streetsmart...i disagree. I think the equity market is up because Oct is almost over(mental) and the economy is just too strong(fundamental) to support a major selloff.

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Response by rb345
about 11 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009

SteveF:

1. the real economy sucks

2. with the exception of NYC 10%-ers and their counterparts elsewhere in America, household net
worth and annual disposable income from earnings, interest and dividends are now lower than
they were before Lehman, the Crown Jewel of the Bush administration

3. also, don't disregard the possibility that Ebola may soon be coming to a theater near you

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Response by streetsmart
about 11 years ago
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Member since: Apr 2009

Ok Steve, you're entitled, but I don't agree. I don't think the sell off is over.

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Response by steveF
about 11 years ago
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streetsmart...the Fed Janet Yellen is obsessed with wage growth. Forget job growth which we are seeing in healthy doses. She wants wage growth and will use all means to get that. Rates will not change unless the consumer gets more money in his pocket. Once substantial wage growth commences stocks will be hitting new highs. I just feel that fighting the fed is not prudent here.

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Response by rb345
about 11 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009

SteveF:

1. jobs growth is a mirage

2. the ObomaCare duty t o cover employees working 30/hours/week of more
has resulted in an explosion of part-time jobs that were formerly full-time

3. and with the paltry hourly wages most of those new employees receive, the only
consumer good they can be counted upon to consume on a regular basis and in
increased quantities is Valium - or cocaine if they are fortunate enough to be a
close friend of Joe Biden's son

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Response by crescent22
about 11 years ago
Posts: 953
Member since: Apr 2008

UD, why do you think high yield bonds are an indicator the market isn't in for something bigger. The HYG ETF was off 5% from the highs and frankly gave observers the indication for the stock market to go lower. Spreads to Treasuries have widened almost 200 bps.

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
Posts: 247
Member since: Jun 2007

Keith -- here is my two cents:
In 2008-09 the S&P 500 was down almost 60% peak to trough and prices in NYC were maybe down 20% peak to trough in aggregate (more for some segments). That indicates a correlation of maybe 0.3 with the market. However, I dont think you start to meaningfully affect the RE market until and unless stock prices are down 20% or more (what people like to use as a definition of a bear market). So declines of say, 10% IMO have a very negligible effect.

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Response by KeithB
about 11 years ago
Posts: 976
Member since: Aug 2009

@bfgross I agree with you and considering the rise since 2009, this recent correction was expected. But I don't think we should expect nyc prices to correct though I think we can expect some disruption to the current state of this raging sellers market. One reason, 2008 is still on everyone's mind at least they are forced to remember when you see the 10 year make a giant move in one day and equities sell off fairly abruptly, throw in Ebola, crashing oil prices, euro zone talks of japanification and you have a frothy stew to try and digest. Like I said I'll take what I can get, I've seen a little crack in the seller market the last week and we hope to take advantage (: I'm very curious to see how all this plays out, it's quite intriguing, let's pick this conversation up mid January. ...

Keith Burkhardt
the burkhardt group

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
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dont disagree with any of that, while there might be some cracks that appear on a one-off basis, I dont think you change the sellers market dynamic until we get into bear market territory, which might be three weeks, three months, or three years away. To be continued...

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
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crescent -- true, but I wouldnt call that a roll over considering the moves since 2009. Seemed consistent with the selloff in equities rather than a leading indicator that credit markets are sustainably deteriorating like the last time.

bfgross -- "In 2008-09 the S&P 500 was down almost 60% peak to trough and prices in NYC were maybe down 20% peak to trough in aggregate" -- hmm, not sure I would agree with this. I remember the deals being had in early 2009 relative to the peak 18 months prior, they were considerably larger than 20%. I know u say some segments more, but I would bump that general # to about 35% with pockets/segments seeing larger hits; especially the higher end. I do completely agree with your last statement "So declines of say, 10% IMO have a very negligible effect."..we need sharper declines before seeing something substantial.

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
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http://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/7616-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-upper-west-side-edition?page=22

here is a great thread by West81st showing same unit sales over time -- i guess u can argue its cherry picked, but i think its real cool to follow and many examples of repeat sales recently going +40%, +50% and +60% over their 2009 - 2010 acquisition price. I know in aggregate the # is lower, but there were not many deals in general at the trough in early 2009 so when u do see a repeat sale come in, its interesting to see just how much of a discount was to be had

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Response by KeithB
about 11 years ago
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Rereading bfgross, I have to agree with Digs, many segments were down quite a bit more than 20%, those brave souls that pulled the trigger 2009 even 2010 really did well (understated). It's interesting to pull up some of the 2009/2010 SE threads on market direction...When i go through some of the deals we did then a few standout, prewar jr.4 converted to 2 bedroom on East 79th; $630 a F2. A young guy who fell in love with One Brooklyn Bridge a true quant armed with spreadsheet, was pretty nervous also called me after sandy for some reassurance. He just contacted me, "they' are now upgrading to a two bedroom in Manhattan after doing quite well on the sale of his Brooklyn place. i'm just glad it worked out well for all these folks, sooner rather than later, I had faith in the 7-10 year window if the emotional components were in place; had no idea some would hit a double. "Be like the moon, not a shooting star'. have a great Sunday!

Keith Burkhardt
tbg

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
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urban and Keith:
if I bring up the MIller Samuel data on median coop/condo sales prices from 1Q 08 peak to 3Q09 trough, median price fell from about $1.275mm to $1.00mm a drop of 21.5%. I'm well aware of outliers, but given my original statement of "about 20% in aggregate" I think this data backs me up.

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
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sorry those numbers were for condos only, but the chart of co-ops shows a very similar decline...

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
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you should not use median sales price when analyzing price action for the Manhattan market. Median sales stats are highly seasonal, very choppy, subject to the engineering/cleansing/standardizing of the dataset, and more a representation of what types of properties sold/filed and when. You will notice big swings in median sales trends qtr to qtr. Honestly, I never got much use out of avg/median market stats anyway. Interesting sure, but not that useful in a practical sense for a buyer, seller of an individual property or the broker advising them.

To analyze Manhattan price action over time, its best to use the SE Condo Index which is a repeat unit regression analysis. http://streeteasy.com/nyc/market/condo_index

This is a sales based index, which means it will be a lagging look at price action -- since the contract price and ultimate sale price is captured at contract execution date, not the transaction closing date; usually 2-4 months before.

The index pins the bottom in Nov 2009, which is expected for a sales based index. Real bottom was early 2009 (feb/march/april) and the people that bought or sold during this period. The index shows current market up about 33.3% from that bottom in Nov 2009. Thats about where I would put the aggregate. However, Im here to tell you that those who bought a classic 6 or larger apt in early 2009 and still own the unit today, are prob sitting on gains in the +40% to +50% range; maybe even a bit higher if great views are included.

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Response by gothamsboro
about 11 years ago
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urbandigs

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ur bringing alot to the table here gotham, very insightful post.

i was a nasdaq equities trader for 6 years with Tradescape, which was bought by etrade and then spun off. no series 7 or 55 or cfa or anything like that. Madoff had better credentials than me. besides this is a forum and the thread is discussing recent stock market volatility, I dont pretend to know where stocks will be in 6 months or 12 months. let the experts do that. to me, the velocity of the plunge suggests a bull market correction with the hy credit market as reasoning.

I'm not here to bring things to the table that I do not have. You shouldn't be either. Your stock market expertise is BS, but you've acknowledged that. Although the reference to Madoff is odd. As for Madoff, his Ponzi-scheming, stealing and lying don't seem to related one way or another to expertise in making macro market calls. But if you want to include him in your company whether by association or by contrast, that's your decision.
You are better off letting us know about your more micro expertise in transactions in the NYC real estate marketplace. For that, it seems as if you have some knowledge. So don't dilute it.

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Response by gothamsboro
about 11 years ago
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When was it that w67thstreet switched from telling everyone to not buy, to holding a condo for his mother, owning commercial real estate, and then buying into a portfolio of condominiums?

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
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urban:
if I use your streeteasy market index as advised from peak to trough im still getting aggregates in the 20% range from peak to trough

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
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nov 2009 low -- 177
today - 236

% chg = 33.33%

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Response by steveF
about 11 years ago
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wow 33.33%. Whoever didn't believe the incredible hype hysteria of the "next Great Depression!" scored big. Congrats all u out there who bought.

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Response by steveF
about 11 years ago
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nice rally on the equity market after 10% selloff. Wouldn't u say aboutready? I'm thinking now that this has to be reassurance for buyers waiting for that Aug-Oct selloff to see what happens before they pull the trigger.

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Response by steveF
about 11 years ago
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I'm not an economist but there must be unprecedented money supply in the system right now after years of fed action. This has to lead to robust inflation sooner or later. So fed action is inevitable next year as the economy heats up. However inflation is good for real estate. I think next couple of years real estate will outperform stocks as the money supply takes effect. IMHO. Noah, Keith what's your take for 2015-2016?

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
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urban: youre confused, i said peak to trough to trough to peak!
peak 1Q 98 trough 3Q09. thats the comparison with the huge decline in the SP 500.

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
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peak to trough NOT trough to peak. its down about 20%

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
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YOUR data

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
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sorry for the typos: peak was 1Q08 trough 3Q 09. market index from low 220's to high 170's. call it 22% decline compared with an S&P 500 decline of 59%. that was my point all along

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Response by fieldschester
about 11 years ago
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All this is great, since somewhereelse sold his stocks late in the day on September 18 and bought them back mid-day on October 15.

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Response by Al_Assad
about 11 years ago
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"I remember when the Nasdaq crashed in 1999. " well you don't remember it that well...because it didn't happen until 2001.

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Response by rb345
about 11 years ago
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Sir:

1. the Nasdaq crashed in 2000, not 2001
2. please get your facts straight before accusing someone else of Alzheimer's

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Response by fieldschester
about 11 years ago
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I'm glad we are getting some of our old characters back on Streeteasy

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Response by JuiceMan
about 11 years ago
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Really would like to know what stevejhx and somewhereelse think now. Man oh man, were they wrong on NYC real estate or what?

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Response by alanhart
about 11 years ago
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Wrong? How so?

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Response by gothamsboro
about 11 years ago
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Steve is retired in Florida.

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

@bf - was out of country but oops! Your right, I was thinking trough to peak. Still, the one thing the SE Index very much underestimates is market price action in extreme volatility. I was in the field at that time and experienced the destruction starting in late late 2008 and bottoming in early 2009. Some fearless buyers bailed out a few lucky sellers in Sep/Oct 2008 b4 the destruction was really evident -- I remember blogging about it and although lehman failed and stocks/credit were in the process of rolling over, brokers & consumers still did not yet see just how bad it was (until early 2009 when desperate sellers kept lowering prices and products still werent moving).

It was a price point specific time as credit markets shut down. What I mean is, the high end was way more hurt than the studios and 1br market as both bids and financing for anything 2M+ was non existent. So imho, the peak to trough from mid 2007 peak to early 2009 bottom was prob more like these approximations:

<1M: -27% to 30% from peak
1-2M: -30% to 33% from peak
2-5M: -33% to 36% from peak
5M+: -36% or more in some cases from peak

Going back into time and place, these approximations depict deals signed into contract around the feb/march 2009 time period. That was definitely the period of highest fear and the lowest deal activity we had from the crisis. I recall classic 7s on park ave with views trading at 37 to 40% discounts in feb/march and brokers talking about coop board rejections due to price alone. I had a deal on E87 that was rejected on price, my only board turndown ever. 1 month later I got 8% more from a less qualified buyer and poof, board approval. Median sales trends wont capture the intensity of the cliff dive, nor the reflation; I would guess the SE Index prob captures 65-70% or so of it. Just lack of data I guess and the difficulty in creating a price action model for this market where buy side perceptions/bids are real time but sales data/comps are lagging.

Thats why I posted that W81st street COMPS thread where he goes over specific cases which to me is the most interesting way to get a feel for this markets changes over time.

http://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/7616-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-upper-west-side-edition

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
Posts: 247
Member since: Jun 2007

urban: Ive read your stuff for years and respect it. and I agree that in certain segments the damage was substantially more than 20-25%. But you told me to look at the streeteasy condo/coop index which takes its data from hundreds of sales at all price levels, and when it didn't fit your thesis, you decided its not a good indicator. the truth is that there were very relatively few deals done at the trough because if you didn't need to sell you weren't selling, but of the deals that did get done, the average was down 20-25%. Your mileage of course, may vary.

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Response by streetview
about 11 years ago
Posts: 331
Member since: Apr 2008

test 123

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

"But you told me to look at the streeteasy condo/coop index which takes its data from hundreds of sales at all price levels, and when it didn't fit your thesis, you decided its not a good indicator."

No. My statement now is consistent with my statement weeks ago. And I wrote about this long ago on UD as well. The SE Index in times of volatility underestimates market price action. Period. Just like it underestimates the % reflation from trough to peak, it underestimates the % decline from peak to trough. At the end of the day, who cares about averages. Its useless. How does it help us today. It doesnt. Every building is its local marketplace, and in an ifefficient/illiquid market like Manhattan real estate, all that matters is the sellers need/motivations to sell and the bids that the market will produce. At the most granular level, averages do not help buyers devise a bidding strategy or a seller properly price an apartment.

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
Posts: 247
Member since: Jun 2007

urbandigs: appreciate and understand your point on the distinction. And while I agree Manhattan is inefficient and illiquid on the one hand as is ALL real estate, I will say another thing: Manahattan RE is the most efficient and liquid RE in the world. BAR NONE!

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Response by bfgross
about 11 years ago
Posts: 247
Member since: Jun 2007

For proof of this please see: RE everywhere else in the world!

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

i dont disagree, its def the fastest and prob most efficient of the markets here in the states..especially the vertical ones. But still, its real estate. Its inefficient. Sales data is lagging and lacking and there are more cases than not where its difficult to find both relevant and recent comps to help a buyer or seller price an apt properly. Thats all I was saying.

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Response by LICComment
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

JuiceMan- welcome back! Stevejhx must be in some room in Florida twisting some made-up calculations on an Excel spreadsheet to theorize that he has saved millions by renting instead of owning the last 5 years, and somewhereelse is still manipulating some fantasy numbers in a Miller Samuel report to insist that the NYC real estate market actually has crashed.

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Response by LICComment
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3610
Member since: Dec 2007

UD- I somewhat agree that averages are not the be all and end all, but they do give some indication of the overall market over a period of time. Sure, there was a narrow window of distress in some pockets of the NYC real estate market, but it was relatively short-lived and in general the market avoided a serious crash, don't you think?

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

oh for sure..lets face it, out of all real estate markets in this country, Manhattan was the most direct beneficary of fed reflationary policies to prevent a depression. in that respect, yes, the destruction so to speak was short lived but the key was how we bounced off those lows. The window your describing, lets call it the trough, probably were deals signed between february and april 2009 or so...that is when you saw the market actually absorb bids that were 40% or more from peak levels two years prior. And the distress was definitely hitting the higher price points the hardest. So yes, we avoided a serious crash, here we are with price action above peak levels whereas most other markets outside this one are still crawling there way back and are seeing trends still significantly below peak level in 06/07. I dont like averages because they are noisy, seasonal, choppy, whatever you want to call it...a bad gauge for price action. SE Index is much more in line but imo will underestimate actual moves in times of high volatility.

Over at UD, we also built a price model. It consists 60% of our condo price per sft data and then 25% using realtime manhattan data trends and 15% equity indexes/credit indexes..This 'time index' as we call it is used for our new Price Your Apartment tool on http://www.urbandigs.com . I believe, it has the bottom at March or April 2009 and June this year as the high point since..I recall the index put the market +46% to +49% from that time in early 2009.

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Response by urbandigs
about 11 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

at the end of the day, lets innovate more tools to track this market! Personally, im interested in the price action/price model aspect of it. If we want to price Apt 11D at so and so bldg, well, whats the best way to do it for that specific place.

I find looking at an avg sales price for a nhood or even a bldg, doesnt quite do the job of helping that seller, or the buyer interested in it who now is hunting for good comps. So I guess that is all Im saying. Check out our chart room..we got days on mkt, list disc, volatility index, monthly contract activity, etc. etc. 12 chart types, that are great an all. But if your price 11D, u want to do a straight comps analysis to get a better window into what price range the market might be able to absorb..

I think in a few years, SE will innovate, we will innovate and who knows what other brokerage firm may tap the technology market. Its good times data wise for the Manhattan real estate crowd..10yrs ago we would have been stuck looking only at avgs

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Response by gothamsboro
about 11 years ago
Posts: 536
Member since: Sep 2013

Volatility index?

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Response by gothamsboro
about 11 years ago
Posts: 536
Member since: Sep 2013

how has the price of 11D changed in the past 4 days? Volatility is important!

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