The Edge

ingenieur, it's a tough call at this point. Comments like falco's above are maybe entertaining, but not really grounded in anything substantial, so I would not absolutely bank on units being "given away at prices that even today seem absurd." That statement sounds to me like a whole lot of wishful thinking. As I've said before in this thread, they're being extremely patient, and are hoping that by the time construction's done (and I think they still have quite a bit to do, though most of the exterior looks close to done), buyers will have more confidence in real estate here. I'm not sure I agree with that, but if they're in good financial shape and have favorable loan terms with the banks (and from the NYT interview with Levine, that's what he's letting on anyway, though he wouldn't want to say anything different, of course), it may work out better than if they just slashed prices now. My guess is they'll have to make cuts, especially in lines that sell poorly, but it's very tough to place any percentages or timelines at this point. However, if you're a potential buyer there, I don't think there's much of a downside at all to waiting as well. They're probably hoping to get 2-4 contracts signed per month as long as construction's still going on, and then re-evaluating their marketing/pricing when they can start having real open houses and get that all-important TCO. Hope that helps.

Visited the sales office today. Here are my impressions, for what they're worth. :)

We were there from about noon until 1pm-ish. In that time, I observed a total of four would-be buyers, six sales people and a receptionist. The staff were pleasant, but I felt a slight edge to their presentation. Not panicked, but a bit nervous.

The construction is fairly well advanced on Phase One. Tower Two, we were told, will commence construction 5-6 years from now. Tax abatement is for 21 years, a 720 sq ft apt pays six bucks in taxes and about .80 cents per sq ft in maintenance. We were told the current buildings are 20% sold, and that this is really the best time to get in, of course! A little bit of an attitude when asked about Northside Piers, disdain as a matter of fact, stating that the Edge is higher quality, greener, built by a dedicated NYC builder (eh?) with experience in high rises, while Toll Bros are a bunch of McMansion-building new comers who have no clue how to build high. Ohkay then... no need to get snooty.

Model apartments are being finished off and should be opening up in two weeks or so. The sales center model kitchen looks great, I liked the glass backsplash by the stove, all modern steel appliances, well though out. The flooring was wide plank, blonde wood, went well with the overall design. Bathrooms were nicely presented as well, very modern, no complaints.

Retail spaces: our sales person commented that they are concluding a deal with a "major national green grocer" (Whole Foods?) to open up a store, a wine store has signed up, a big-brand clothing retailer and a couple of restaurants. He said that there probably will not be a pharmacy as DR is opening up "next door" at Northside Piers.

They are finishing off a pier for the Water Taxi service which will be turned over to the City. Boats will run to Wall St and 34th St. I guess that's cool, but once you're at 34th, it's a cross-town bus to get to a subway stop. The walk from The Edge to the L train at Bedford Ave is about five long blocks. In the heat like today, not all that pleasant, must suck in the winter with the wind off the river. Forget about walking to the J train. Way too far.

Took a long walk around the area. The park space to the north is... less than charming. The lawn needs work, there is way too much concrete, no trees, there's this one building in the middle of it (whoever lives there, props for the awesome location, but it looks like the place is about to fall down around you :) ) We were told the park is going to be renovated by the City, and more park space added. If you pick an apt looking North then, you'll never get your views blocked. Too bad your first vista is that of the ConEdison power plant across the river... :(

Went up and down North 8th, 7th, 6th. It alternates among industrial shops, funky retail, totally out of place residential buildings squeezed in among marble and auto shops and a LOT of new construction. We've seen at least 5 buildings in various stages of construction westward from Bedford Ave to the water. Bedford Ave is pretty crowded, but the further west you go along 7th and 8th, the quiter it becomes. Several tiny bakeries, bars and pubs scattered around. I'd say N. 6th Street will continue to evolve into the happening place. It seems less residential and more commercial to me.

The overall vibe is one of a neighborhood in flux, not knowing which way to go: hipster or yuppie, with lots of old-Europe Polish folks still around, scratching their heads at Polo-clad moms with McLaren strollers and long, unwashed-hair hipsters with guitars slung over their shoulders. I saw everyone from goth kids, to 80 year old folks out and about leaning on canes going for a walk.

So: is The Edge worth it? The answer, at least to me, is "No." It's simply too expensive.

Thanks for the interesting comments bjw and pulaski!

pulaski, did you get any info regarding closing dates?

pulaski, many thanks for the insights. Any more details on the retail tenants? This is the first I'm hearing of any concrete deals. If they get Whole Foods or Trader Joe's, that will be huge, but I worry a bit about the delivery trucks rumbling through the area.

every new development in brooklyn says they are in talks with whole foods. one brooklyn bridge park, one hanson, the edge. it's the new version of when they all said they were getting the brooklyn apple store.

jasonkyle, to be fair, Whole Foods wasn't specifically named (it was just speculation). I'll believe it when I see it as well, but you have to figure they'll eventually pick a spot in Brooklyn. I would much rather see a new Fairway.

i am all for fairness but they all do say it. i have been to each of them and it is a common discussion point. and they say "negotiations" or "discussions" so they are covered when or if it doesn't come true. i learned during my search never to believe anything said to me about possible retail tenants at a condo sales office.

Does nyc have a Fairway?

mutombo, I've questioned whether you actually live here before, but now it's pretty clear.

http://www.fairwaymarket.com/location_and_hours.html

By the way, you still haven't responded to my email.

Pulaski,

Thanks for your input.

ingenieur: "pulaski, did you get any info regarding closing dates?"
Nothing specific. Rather vague actually. We were told Q1 of next year. I'm not sure what this means for the folks who put down deposit thus far. Seems like the builder can afford to wait for market to recover, while Toll Bros. down the street have to slash prices now. I think if you are serious about buying @ Edge, you should wait. Those first purchases look like market speculators looking to flip apts.

bjw2103: "Any more details on the retail tenants?"
The only other thing that comes to mind is that they are trying to emulate the feel of Williamsburg, pushing the whole gritty theme. Hence, we were told there will be no Starbucks in the buildings. Ah. Take that as you will.

bwj2103: "I worry a bit about the delivery trucks rumbling through the area."
From the commercial layout brochure, the delivery areas are mostly on the two streets bordering the development: 5th and 7th. Stores on sixth look to be serviced through common pass-through areas in the bowels of the buildings. I wouldn't worry delivery trucks. What I would worry about though, is Kent Avenue. It's two way, and has a lot of heavy big rigs hauling big cargo to and fro the Greenpoint Industrial Park. Kent Ave is the most direct truck route down there. I observed two Mack eighteen wheelers in the 3-4 hours we were in the neighborhood. On a Saturday. :/

bwj2103: "Whole Foods wasn't specifically named (it was just speculation)"
Exactly.

jasonkyle: "i learned during my search never to believe anything said to me about possible retail tenants at a condo sales office."
Concur. Unless you see "Whole Foods Coming Soon" plastered on the windows, I'm with Jason.

One further note on the hood after dark: went down there on a Saturday night. Very lively. Again, mixed crowd, lots of folks milling about, Bedford Ave was packed, crowds from the bars out on the sidewalks. Live music in at least 2 places that we passed. Sixth street was hopping as well.

Thanks pulaski. About Kent - as of today, it's being redone to be a one-way street from Clymer to North 14th (ie: the entire Williamsburg portion of it), with two sides of parking and a buffered two-way bike lane on the waterfront side. I think this will help a lot and though people are complaining it will divert truck routes to Wythe, I think trucks will go for McGuinness and the BQE first, unless making local deliveries.

I was at the sales center this weekend - good product but definitely not priced in line with the market. One Brooklyn Bridge just dropped prices by 35% - that's something the Edge should consider as well. At around $500-$550 per SQF they would see a big uptick in demand. Until then - sit tight and wait - thousands of additional units hitting the Williamsburg market this year and next.

Just got email from the Edge that their model units are open. The pricing is whack! I remember a recent article where the developer said there currently was and nor will there be any price cuts here. He's going to eat those words. Too many useless amenities driving up maintenance as well. perused their "media" section and it has links to all their advertorials in various publications. big house of cards here. when the Edge and Northside(the other behemoth next door) cut their prices it's going to be a race to the $450-$500/sq ft range.

cfranch, Northside already cut their prices months ago in the first tower. They're taking the Edge's approach to the second tower and likely waiting for construction to finish before making cuts there. It'll happen at both places - I don't see prices quite as low as you have them, but $600 wouldn't surprise me at all.

When does the Edge have to have a closing according to their Offering Plan or return deposits?

More signs of desperation at The Edge:

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/tennis-star-caroline-wozniacki-mulls-williamsburg-move-to-the-edge-development

The Atelier did much the same thing. The actor Orlando Bloom came to see apartments and it was "leaked" to the press. Turns out he was paid a fee to pretend to look at the building to lend it some cache. The PR firm here sure is cheesy. How about lowering prices to reasonable levels?

more people will be walking away from there deposits then closing. this is going to be a disaster

That's like the President almost walks into the ladies room by accident and Glenn Beck screams, "Obama is mulling a sex change!"

samadams, any source on that? Or just your intuition?

common sense. if you pluncked down a deposit at 900 psf when the place next door is going for much less, Manhattan can be had new for 1000 psf and the building was less then 20 percent sold what would you do? Building looks nice but I am sure they are cheaping out on materials at this point. This is a disaster

"Manhattan can be had new for 1000 psf"

Be careful comparing new construction to resales. New construction in Manhattan typically goes for much more. Secondly, don't you think people are renegotiating terms and concessions to get these deals closed? Unless Levine is overly confident the market will suddenly turn around, there's no way they're not doing this. Do I think everything will come up roses here? Of course not. But "disaster" is nothing more than hyperbole.

bjw you should read what this whacko has been saying. after you do tell me this is not going to be a disaster. This building has been left in the dust

samadams, I've read what he's said. I think it's nuts to expect him to say anything else publicly. It should be obvious that they handle things differently in private.

"more people will be walking away from there deposits then closing. this is going to be a disaster"

lol...folks been screaming about 'disaster' for this building for over 12 months.

ericho it's a slow motion disaster.

Has anyone been over to see the completed model apartments yet? I called yesterday and they said they are only showing them during the week until 2pm

Do you know when the projected closings will be for the EDGE? Also, any updates on the sales?

So, just saw the completed model apartments at the Edge this weekend, and we got to see our actual apartment which is still being worked on. The apartments look amazing...exactly what you would expect from the sales office. They definitely have not cut any corners anywhere which is a testament to them.

From what I was told the closings will happen in phases beginning in the South tower around mid January or so. The North tower is on track for around mid April. Apparently CVS, Chase, and some large grocer (not Whole Foods due to their parking space requirement) have "signed-on" for retail space. There is also talk that Tribeca Grill is interested in the restaurant space. Word is that they are now up to 30% sold.

Anyone know how much discount they are giving for recent contract signings? In the office they seem to be saying it is an individual thing negotiated with each client. If the recent contracts are at substantial discounts are those who signed long ago agitating to get renegotiated deals?

better be at least 20%

stop dreaming, they have a good project and can wait for the market to recover; probably more like 5%

we'll see about that. some developers think they can ride out the market..thats how people go bust. the market cant stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid

> market cant stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid

amen to that.

however in this case, it would be the market can stay rational for longer than the sponsors can stay liquid. prices are dropping to (but have not yet reached) rational level. the only way the market is going to increase to edge asks any time soon is if we have another bubble or massive inflation.

i like their product but if you think their prices are reasonable, we must live on different planets

I said that wrong...the market CAN stay irrationl longer than you can stay liquid is the expression...I definitely think all new properties are completely mispriced and many developers will go out of biz.

heh...i knew the expression so i didn't read it that carefully. there are many examples in finance of market irrationality bankrupting investors.

I don't think any developer can afford sitting on an empty building, regardless of how deep their pockets are. the Edge will have to start lowering their prices soon - I think having only 20% of the units under contract is an indication that the units are overpriced.

Prices at the Edge are not much above those at other new developments in Williamsburg, which are in general still significantly below Manhattan. Plus, the tax abatement makes a huge difference. So, everybody who finds the Edge way overpriced probably still sees house prices in general as inflated.

The Edge says it is 30% in contract (and the total project is 565 sale units).They seem to say total discount is about 10%, maybe or maybe not including the 5% of closing costs they might cover. So, it is not off too much, and whether it makes sense to buy there now, and whether they will ultimately have to lower more, depends on your view of the market. So far...the developer isn't panicking really.

I don't think you should be comparing Williamsburg to Manhattan but rather to other parts of Brooklyn. And to your point, the Edge is not much cheaper than Manhattan prices unless you are comparing it to Upper East Side. In general, I think they are way overpriced specially when the view for most units will be blocked when the new tower comes up in the future.

When I visited in August 2008, the developer was adamant that they would never, ever, negotiate closing costs. So much for that principle . . .

Well one thing keeping them from lowering prices is the 20% or so of the contracts that were negotiatied at higher prices. My assumption is that they'll hold prices up for another month and then will have to do another round of price decreases. Otherwise, they will be sitting on units for a long time.

tanker, are you really surprised though? I mean, this is how the machine works. You don't declare your hand in poker before it's absolutely necessary, even if others are pretty sure of what you've got. I think we both knew this would eventually happen. And will continue to do so.

bjw - no, I'm not at all surprised. Just find it amusing.

ok, seriously, I never entertain such mindless dribble on these message boards since it is usually filled with people that clearly have no idea what is going on in the market and just like to berate others and justify why they don't have a place as nice as something like the Edge because they "don't want it"...aka can't afford it and would rather live in their tenement walk-up.

You want an as close to direct comparison as you're going to get between the Edge and Manhattan? here you go: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/194056-condo-400-east-67th-street-lenox-hill-new-york. We purchased a unit in the Edge with almost the exact same layout...maybe a foot smaller in each room. First of all I am not sure how they come up with 1,378 sq ft but that's not the point of this post. The amenities are about as close as you're going to get to the Edge especially in Manhattan. The price at The Laurel (on 1st Ave mind you) on the forth floor (same as ours) with no balcony and obviously no view of Manhattan(like ours has): $1,855,000!!!! This was the selling price, not the asking price in a "crazy" market. Now you mean to tell me that living on 1st Ave in the 60s (with similar but arguably inferior amenities) is worth...wait for it...over $1.15M more????????? Granted the fixtures and appliances are maybe a step above what the Edge is offering, but seriously over a million dollars more!!!!

Now I am not a real estate expert nor have ever claimed to be, but I do know that "living in Manhattan" is not worth a 170% premium...again for an identical building/amenity package/etc. that is the key. Sure I can get a crap walk-up in Yorkville in the 90s for a similar price as the Edge but lets be honest, if you're going to slam the Edge at least compare similar developments as I have just done. Do I think the Edge is worth it in terms of the location, the apartment and the amenities...of which I intend to use every one available? Absolutely!

Can't wait to hear the "Edge haters" reply to this

the laurel? don't know if you want to use that as your comparison. it's got fail written all over it.

Not an Edge hater but your opinion of the Edge is probably colored by the fact you have purchased near the top of the market. You rationalize your purchase by comparing your unit to some other overpriced properties or crow about the amenities(many of them pretty useless and will only cause your maintenance to rise). The fact remains it is overpriced based on comps in the area.

Clearly we are coming out of this economic mess. The recent economic numbers and earnings from key companies have surprised on the upside. However RE is lagging, as it always does. Conversely the stock market predicted the upturn earlier this year. RE prices stabilized as people felt more secure. However my connections at W'burg RE firms tell me things have slowed considerably since August. Many smaller projects are in trouble. RE prices will continue to fall as money will chase more liquid rising assets(stocks) at this point in a recovery. Forbes magazine just came out with a study indicating renting is superior to buying in NYC. Taxes, maintenance and closing costs make owning at this time just not worth it. The only cities they recommend buying in are those that suffered the worst declines. See Fl, CA NV. Sorry MIKO but we've got further to fall, maybe much further.

just to clarify that...they are around 50% sold...some of which have just happened so not sure "fail written all over it" would be the correct phrase. Show me a development/industry/anything that is not having issues in this market. This was used as a Manhattan comp to the Edge. If people are saying that the Edge is over priced by 20-30% on this post, and this one sold for $1.855M then there certainly is a HUGE disconnect going on.

Oh wait, I understand now, the Laurel is a new glass development as well so it must inherently suck too. I think I am catching on now. What a joke

mikolinski, I actually completely agree with you on the larger point - if you're going to compare to Manhattan prices, at least go by higher-end new construction. Some people like to say the Edge is overpriced because I can get a "similar" apartment in Manhattan for the same or less, but fail to realize that a sub-par co-op in a less-than-ideal location doesn't really stack up. At the same time, it's clear that many of the more legit comparables are and were overpriced. The Edge is, in my opinion, overpriced as well, but probably not as much as some of these other places. I don't hate the building by any means, and think it will eventually sell out and be just fine. As long as you can afford your place and enjoy it, I wouldn't worry about what anyone else is saying on here too much. Good luck!

By the way, any insight as to what the retail spaces will be there?

SE shows the laurel as having sold 36 out of 129 units, with one sale post june. where did you get your 50% number?

you chose one of the most overpriced developments in Manhattan for your comparison. i'm no fan of glass boxes, but that wasn't my point at all. but if you're happy about your purchase, you're not showing it so well.

I hear ya bjw...do I think what we are paying is a lot? Of course I do. The broader question is do I think that it is ultimately worth it? and the answer again is yes. I firmly do believe that (in rationale text book examples) the market should keep falling, however as everyone has seen, the market does not act in rationale ways and even though I wouldn't disagree that the Edge should maybe be 10% lower, it may never make it there and thus it begs the question...do I buy something that is exactly what I am looking for for the price I am comfortable with, or keep renting for around the same net amount (after accounting for taxes) and cross my fingers that one day maybe it will drop and I will get what I want.

Look, everyone's priority, wish list, likes, etc are different thats all I'm trying to point out here. I don't think that ignorant posters that just like to see their name online offering up berating comments without any sort of support what so ever are providing any benefit. The whole reason I read any posts on Street Easy or elsewhere is to hopefully have intelligent discussions about what is going on and not engage in 5th grade banter about this place sucks, or that place sucks because they have nothing productive to contribute.

To all those that post intelligent and relevant discussion points, you make it worth while to chat with...to all you others...well, grow up already

Sorry...concerning retail, I have been told Chase, CVS, some large gourmet grocer, and Tribeca Grill has expressed interest in the restaurant space.

aboutready...not to push this along any further, as again this is just being used as a comp...I got 55 off of the SE page with the last one sold on 10/13 for 3.5M. The reason I chose the Laurel is that it is most similar in terms of amenity packages and I have not looked in detail for others. Not sure I was "showing" anything. As I have just posted I am very pleased with the purchase and feel (for me) that it is most certainly worth it and can't wait to move in. I am not going to say "Oh because I think its worth it, everyone else should too", everyone is going to have their own opinion on it, but just make an informed opinion or at least think it through before posting stuff up. No one benefits (at least no one that looks to have intelligent discussions) from a bunch of posters just spouting out nonsense.

Thanks mikolinski, I'm on board with that. Unfortunately, this is the internet, and that stuff will just happen. And as hard as we try to ignore it, sometimes gets the best of us (as aboutready and myself can probably attest to). There is good discussion here from time to time, which is what keeps me coming back,; I've gotten a lot of good insight from some very smart and knowledgeable people on here and feel I know the Williamsburg market pretty well now and can hopefully offer something to those trying to navigate it as well. Hope the move-in goes well!

Miko - I totally agree with you. New apartment complexes in Manhattan are still asking insanely high values for their apartments. You must also factor in the tax savings when you talk about rising maintenance as I pay twice as much right now for no amenities aside from a doorman.

I currently live near the Laurel and while a great neighborhood, it's nothing like w'burg in culture, cuisine and night life. While they may be comparable to some older Manhattan buildings, you must consider that some people want to live in Brooklyn and not Manhattan. I know you're buying a view of Manhattan but some people rather look at that then Brooklyn not cause they want to live there but because it's more attractive. I personally love the Brooklyn view.

For the Laurel, I only count 38 closings, plus 3 in contract (one of which is a $16m penthouse).

miko, you're not reading that chart correctly. 57 includes units that were taken off the market. there have been 36 recorded sales.

and i don't think it's nonsense. all but two of the laurel's on-the-market units had price reductions recently. as well they should, as they are grossly overpriced for the neighborhood, amenitites or no. this is a building i've been following for well over a year. i strongly suspect it won't make it. this is not based on vitriol or anything else of the sort, just business reality. it's the wrong development in the wrong place at the wrong price.

bjw, did you brave ACRIS?

I just saw the "Sales 55" tab representing what I assumed were sales with the latest one being 17A on 10/13. If that's not the case then I apologize.

miko, no problem. the latest one was 10/13. certainly don't wish to turn the edge thread into a laurel thread. good luck.

Miko - with due respect (you know what's coming) . . .

Granted, there's plenty of ignorance, often of the self-serving type on this board. But Edge prices, established in spring of 2008, are now way-more-than-10% over comparables in Brooklyn - you don't have to use Manhattan as the benchmark. In my case, I negotiated directly with the Edge developer last year, not the sales agent, and they wanted $970/sq.ft. for a 9th floor 3-bed. Today, I'm buying UES at $810 - after renovations to Edge level, $840 - with a river view. Needless to say, I'm hardly an Edge wannabe, as you characterize anyone who's critical of their pricing or locale. On the contrary, I'm sure Douglaston wishes they could have me back at anything near $800/sq.ft. They've sold virtually nothing since summer 2008.

I believe the Edge is willing to negotiate to $700-800/sq.ft.

rala - for what? A studio? 3-bed?

we got $730/sq ft...non negotiated in the very beginning. To me a great deal as the apartment is EXACTLY what we were looking for. I don't think they are over priced to "comparables in brooklyn". The only true comparable is NSP. They are now in line with NSP and this is after NSP has slashed prices. Coupled with the fact that the amenity package is still better than NSP makes it a solid bet for those looking for that set up as we are.

tanker...congrats on getting that place on the UES for that price. Just to be clear I am not characterizing anyone as anything. Back to my original point...if this is a discussion board lets use it as such, and not a sounding board for ignorant irrational comments(not directed towards you). I am not saying that my decision is the best for everyone or anyone for that matter. This is a discussion on the Edge and thats what I am doing.

miko - you got financing?

haven't reached that point yet since they are still a few months+ away from closing. Obviously a concern so can just hope for the best at this point. I have spoken to BofA and as a preferred lender they are willing to lend 85% (so 15% down) at good rates. Would like to keep it to the 10% down we already have down but will do the extra 5 if that's what it takes

I'm looking at a 1 bedroom but the current $580 for 680 sq.ft. is above my budget...if you're getting it at 730, that's great! I'd probably sign on the dotted line in a heart beat at $675-700/sq.ft. Which I think is a great deal for all the amenities. How much did you have to put down to lock the apartment?

we put 10% down. We did this back in April of 2008 believe it or not. We'd been looking for a while and the Edge met all of our requirements. I think we really lucked out with the line we got. Its a one bdrm with home office (that we'll turn into 2bdrms), 2 full baths and a balcony with views of Manhattan (yes that is a big selling point for us). the 2 bedroom of the same size was considerably more and didn't have as good of views.

Sounds great, i would love a home office/second bedroom and view of manhattan but i'd say that's more up in the 800k range...

here is one that is a similar line to ours that is no longer available per SE: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/276958-condo-34-north-7th-street-williamsburg-brooklyn. Anything in the North Tower in the I or J line will give you a similar layout. The second floor is the smallest. All the other floors are a little bigger with double the outdoor balcony space. Hope this helps

miko, i am not an Edge hater, but your post rubbed me the wrong way

> ok, seriously, I never entertain such mindless dribble on these message boards since it is usually
> filled with people that clearly have no idea what is going on in the market and just like to berate
> others and justify why they don't have a place as nice as something like the Edge because they "don't
> want it"...aka can't afford it and would rather live in their tenement walk-up.

mindless dribble? and what would you call an attempt at justification by using a very broad (and insulting) generalization about people's income? oh by the way, i can afford to buy at the Edge.

> and obviously no view of Manhattan(like ours has)
> we got $730/sq ft...non negotiated in the very beginning

you'll excuse me if i am skeptical about this statement. when i last stopped by the sales office, there was no unit with a lasting view of manhattan that was anywhere near $730/sqft non-negotiated. there may be some units priced in that range that have one now, but will lose that view when phase II goes up. and there is no way that phase II will not be built. however if you got one, 'grats! oh, and your example of 2I in the north tower will certainly lose its view post-phase II

> Do I think the Edge is worth it in terms of the location, the apartment and the amenities...of which
> I intend to use every one available? Absolutely!

Again, you'll excuse me if I am skeptical, but i don't know too many people that will would use the spa, basketball court, gym, public bbq grills, media room, children's playroom, etc. on a CONSISTENT basis. But if you do, I congratulate you on being extremely well-rounded (and having a lot of time on your hands).

And of course you think that it's worth it. You would be less intelligent than the people spouting off "mindless dribble" if you were to say that you didn't think it was worth it and yet signed a contract (unless you are a speculator).

It's been a while since I studied economics, but based on price theory, I don't understand how you can say that the Edge is not overvalued. It's been on the market for well over a year and they are 30% sold (if you believe the sales agents). It clearly seems like supply is greater than demand at these price levels, which is equivalent to saying the units are generally overpriced. Also, you'll notice the developers are now willing to negotiate on closing costs and price.

To see that there are units that were priced correctly, one can look at 72 Berry. Not to say that 72 Berry is a comp for the Edge, but it is an example that the market can clear in this environment when pricing is good.

If you want to argue that "the market" is somehow undervaluing the Edge, you can make an argument based on quantifiable measures of value. However, I tried using cap rates and rent-price ratios and couldn't come even close to what they are asking.

Of course, one can examine other factors like high levels of unemployment, over-supply in WB, etc. if you want to bolster the overpriced arguments.

That is not to say that there aren't some good deals on particular units at the Edge. You may have found one, and if you did, congratulations. But overall, I would have to agree with the "mindless dribble" that the Edge is overpriced.

that looks like a great apartment, a little above the budget for me and my gf (only 27 and 24). i'm very jealous so don't listen to what anyone else says, if it makes you happy that's all the matters. i've been looking at the R,G & A lines.

Milkmanjones: 1) "mindless dribble" = stuff like "The pricing is whack!" "Too many useless amenities" basically stuff that one person may not want or covet does not mean anything to those that do. Comments like these do not add anything to intelligent discussions. By no means is it aimed at anyone in particular and I think everyone who makes thoughtful discussion points should feel no offense.

2) I most certainly did not say the Edge is not overvalued either...see above "I wouldn't disagree that the Edge should maybe be 10% lower..."

I'm sorry you feel so up in arms over my comments, however I am intending to use this forum for what it is a thoughtful discussion about the Edge.

"and there is no way that phase II will not be built."

Based on what? When? I haven't seen any info on this, and I'm not saying it will definitely not be built, but if it does, I think it's a long way down the road at this point.

Defending the Edge....
Now that's a tough one.
I so want it to work out for the folks that bought there. They are the New Yorkers that make this city better for all of us. They are the one's willing to live far from public transport, far from hustel and bussel of the big city. Content to view the city, a far, from their purch. Resistant to what lies under the ground, hexanes and schmexanes, carcinogens as large as cats, as well as what's above.
They take one for the team and we fail to applaud them.
Go ahead, get a tattoo...that's not what's gonna kill you.
Benzene hexocloride....Life sometimes smells like a bowl of cherries

miko, i appreciate that you would like a thoughtful discussion and i too wish that people didn't make certain statements without justification. i also think that some of your points are valid. i just feel that starting off by calling things "mindless dribble" and then making an elitist statement about income to be not conducive to starting productive discourse.

bjw2103, based on economics. they already have the land, so that is a sunk cost. from the research i've done and the people i've talked to, it costs $100-$200 per sqft to put up a high rise. so even if you are really conservative and say $300 per sqft to build and you can only sell for $500 per sqft (which is also super-conservative), it still makes economic sense to build. when i pressed the sales agent, she acknowledged it was a matter of when and not if.

to your question of when, only the developer knows. the sales agent told me like 7 years. so i took that to mean 5-10 years. i too think that it will be a while, but there are things like the looming increase in interest rates and higher inflation that might convince the developer to start a little sooner than planned.

I agree that on a direct comparable basis obviously anything in Manhattan should have similar finish, amenities, new, etc. However, if people generally say that Manhattan is roughly speaking down 20% or more on average (yes, it depends what, where, etc....but is anyone claiming that the polished new high-end is down LESS than the average in Manhattan), then why wouldn't something priced at the peak in Wmburg be down at least as much?. But, in fact, it isn't as the Edge is only offering a discount of say 10% or so (plus maybe 5% closing costs), so...so...apparently either the Edge is in denial and will be forced to discount more (how many units not sold as a % should cause them to panic by say end of March) 2) or the Wmburg doomsayers are wrong, even though there is tons of inventory out there. I really don't know.

I dont get how miko bought at 730 psf. Was that the original offer price on some units, or were they discounting way back then. It seems strange. The market is much worse now but everything I saw there was much more psf.

milkman...agreed, and apologies on how my initial post may have come off, certainly was not my intent to generalize or sound elitist or especially put anyone down.

In meeting with the Edge recently they have openly said that Phase II will be delayed for a while(not sure on any exact timing around that). Enough so that they are planning on sodding the whole Phase II area so that its not an open construction site which leads me to believe, especially based on the current market, that they are in no rush to flood the real estate market with more apartments. Lucky for me I guess.

concerning my 730/sq ft, I think it may be a combination of it not being a true 2 bedroom in addition to the future possibility of Phase II going up directly in front of us and blocking our view. I've got to believe they priced that into the price of the North Tower apartments. For now, and until phase II goes forward I just consider myself lucky and on borrowed time. That being said we still purchased in full knowledge that our views would one day be blocked and took that into consideration before moving forward.

I firmly believe, and maybe it is specific to the price we got on our place, or that I've just become delusional, that the Edge started pricing the apartments at a more reasonable level from the beginning. You look at NSP and 1 Brooklyn...yes they have come down tremendously over the past few months, but in absolute terms they are basically in line with the Edge now.

Edge = 35 @ $905/sq ft
2 NSP = 42 @ $854/sq ft
1 BRKLYN = 61 @ $903/sq ft

The obvious outlier is 1 NSP @ $764/sq ft. That being said 1) the Edge is pretty much in line with a terrific amenities package, and 2) the 730/sq ft I am paying is in line with, and actually lower than 1 NSP which is now priced as such given the blocked views by 2 NSP. This is what leads me to believe that the Edge may have priced "right" from the beginning.

Sorry for the long post...I'll try not to let it happen again

"They are the New Yorkers that make this city better for all of us. They are the one's willing to live far from public transport, far from hustel and bussel of the big city. Content to view the city, a far, from their purch. Resistant to what lies under the ground, hexanes and schmexanes, carcinogens as large as cats, as well as what's above.
They take one for the team and we fail to applaud them.
Go ahead, get a tattoo...that's not what's gonna kill you.
Benzene hexocloride....Life sometimes smells like a bowl of cherries"

Well, whatever it is, it's definitely much better than whatever taught you to spell like that. Also, I didn't know a 5 minute walk to a train station 1 stop out of Manhattan was "far from public transport" and "hustel and bussel." Where do you live? 42nd and Broadway?

just can't take it - "hustle and bustle"

Miko - it's not only loss of views that i would worry about, but the daily sound of jackhammers and trucks for a period of no less than 16 months, as Phase II structure will equal South Tower in size. Hope you are not purchasing as an investment, but rather for the short term views and ammenities. Phase II will certainly block North Tower to apartments below the 9th floor facing the river.

The subway ride into the city between 7:30 and 8:30 is a nightmare. One line on the last stop before you enter Manhattan. Good luck....

tobytoby, the nightmares really begin at 8:30. I've never had a problem from 7:30-8:15 or so.

The EDGE OFFICE told me emphatically that so far as they understood it and knew there are virtually no restrictions on renting out the units. I glanced at the offering document on a desk and didn't find anything quickly. Does this 1) seem normal and correct, 2) is this a negative about the buidling, 3) would a condo associatioin likely eventually put in some restrictions??? Does this mean that someone could rent out for two week stints or even two days off of Craigslist? In such a large building, and at least until it fills up and stabilizes, would anyone have a clue anyway on what was going on? (For example, I lived in a condo in Chelsea that had a rule saying no more than one rental per year or minimum one year tenor or something like that.)

With regard to the debate on pricing, we all love cherrypicking comparables, but in this case there's an objective measure - is demand meeting supply at current prices? In the case of Edge, they are less than 20% sold and, more importantly, have sold virtually nothing since summer of 2008. If that's not a sign of significant overpricing, I need to give back my economics phd . . .

tanker, I certainly agree that it's overpriced, but I think part of this has to do with the restricted lending environment. I think we'll have a much clearer picture of what people are willing to pay once closings start and we see how many contracts are broken.

bjw - even if no contracts are broken (which, of course requires walking away from the deposit and other sunk costs), the developers still have over 80% of the units to sell. What buyers were willing to pay when they contracted in spring 2008 bears little relation with what different buyers are willing to pay today. As for restricted lending, the biggest restriction in the case of Edge is the fact that they are less than 20% sold, when Fannie and Freddie won't touch a loan from a new construction under 70% sold.

Tanker -- the Edge office says it is 30% sold (of the 565 apartments). I think they said about 10 units sold in the two week period that ended last week. If they sell 20 a month up to march 31 (they sort of say some ready for occupancy by then), they would still be below 50% at that time, which I guess isn't good, but I don't know if it will make them panic.

bjw -- If someone walks away from The Edge contract when the new units are only being discounted by 10% or so, wouldn't that be strange?...

tanker, that last sentence is really my point - we have no idea how many people would otherwise be ready to buy at the Edge if we were in a less restricted lending environment.

jim, I don't think it would be strange. People have a host of reasons why they'd walk away - job situation, found a better deal elsewhere, feel confident they can come back to the same development later for significantly less, etc. Patience is really essential with such a large-scale development.

bjw...my point is that people are (logically) unlikely to walk away unless a significant differential emerges between new contract prices at the time of closing vs. what they contracted for

lending -- maybe they are lying, but I understood the office to say that they have lenders who will def provide financing even if not at x% ; perhaps this is only partly true , or won't apply to all potential buyers, I don't know

tanker - what is the source of the 20% number

I have to say, I am actually enjoying the discussion going on here. Typically, these threads do turn into third grade insults and pointless observations from anonymous trolls who really think what they are saying is relevant. With respect to % sold, one thing that has not been factored into this discussion is NOBODY is buying pre-completion. Why would they in today's environment? The real test is going to be when units are available to close. From there, financing and pricing will present a much clearer picture and we will truly see where supply and demand converge.

From what we have been told by the Edge Sales office, since we were obviously concerned about the 70% sales requirement, is that they are closing in phases which I guess somehow allows them to skirt around the sold %s...someone correct me if thats not the case. As I've stated earlier BofA as a preferred lender has told me they are willing to provide financing for 85% of the purchase price. Next year should be "interesting" to say the least, but am fairly comfortable in my ability to obtain financing.

Also I've been told that they are at or above 30% sold now. Again, this is from the Sales office so I don't have any solid evidence of this.

jim - source on sales was an article (Crain's? can't remember) a few months ago. I also know from my experience in summer '08 that Douglaston exaggerates its sales - they were publicly claiming 110 units sold at the same as their own salesperson, with a spreadsheet in front of her, told me it was 96.

bjw - what use is it imagining how many units Douglaston would sell if lending were higher? We could also imagine how many they'd sell if unemployment were at 5%, but it's not. The point is that prices must come down significantly to reduce their massive inventory.

tanker, I agree that it's a fruitless excercise. It was my somewhat convoluted way of explaining that this is not such a simple supply-meets-demand problem when you've got a middleman (lenders) involved. What this means is that even if they do lower prices considerably right now, they may not get the boost in sales they're looking for because of how tough it is to get a mortgage. I'm sure Douglaston realizes this, hence the feeling no real pressure to capitulate.

jimstreeteasy: they won't let you rent out for less than 12 months.

they have a lender (home mortgage express) that is willing to finance even at 0% sold.

those units whose views will be blocked by phase ii are priced as no-view units, i.e., they are asking about 800 psf. concerning the criticism that they haven't moved with the market, well, their original prices where intended to be non-negotiable; that has changed and they will now give a discount. comparing them to nsp, 80 met, and 125 n 10th, i think they are priced in line, maybe about 5% -10% psf higher. i do think that they offer superior quality and that the higher prices are justified for that reason.

i don't need all the amenities, but the pool is nice and common charges are still lower than what one would pay in most co-ops. and virtually no taxes for 20 years. so, along the same lines of what mikolinski has said: maybe they will come down further in price, but where they are selling right now nets out at about the same as renting (a place that isn't nearly as nice). so, i might as well just consider what works out best for me rather than trying to time the market.

Polisson,
800/sqf for no view in a building that is only 20% in contract - do you think this is a reasonable deal in this market. I really think you should look around as other developments are offering much better deals.

> If someone walks away from The Edge contract when the new units are only being discounted by 10%
> or so, wouldn't that be strange?...

tanker, if a 10% discount led to the market clearing, i would agree that walking away wouldn't make much sense. however, here i agree with bjw because there will probably be people who think that the correct valuation is going to be significantly south of 10% off asking (since manhattan is at least 20% off of peak). so if you think that actual value is more than 20% off, walking away is at least something to think about.

> It was my somewhat convoluted way of explaining that this is not such a simple
> supply-meets-demand problem when you've got a middleman (lenders) involved.
> What this means is that even if they do lower prices considerably right now, they may
> not get the boost in sales they're looking for because of how tough it is to get a
> mortgage. I'm sure Douglaston realizes this, hence the feeling no real pressure to capitulate.

bjw, i am not sure i totally understand the point you are trying to get across. in the real estate market, there is usually a middle man (except for cash purchases, which i believe represent a relatively small percentage of purchases). so are you saying that supply and demand is generally inappropriate or only inappropriate in these circumstances?

also, even though it is generally tougher to get a mortgage these days, when i went to get my pre-approval, i was told by my broker that it is no problem for someone with a good credit history to get a mortgage if you put down 20-25% (depending on mortgage size). if this is true, then the people who are not able to bid up the edge's prices are people who do not have a record of fiscal responsibility and do not have sufficient equity to invest. and though such people can set the market (as we have seen in the past several years), i would be a little skeptical of their valuations.

also, thought credit requirements are tighter, they may stay this way for the forseeable future. unemployment is high, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the long-term ability of the government to prop up housing, commercial RE is looking like it's going to put a sizable dent in bank's balance sheets. maybe a restrictive lending environment is the correct state of the market. douglaston seems to be betting on certain things that seem overly optimistic to me, but they have time until closings are supposed to start.

> comparing them to nsp, 80 met, and 125 n 10th, i think they are priced in line, maybe about
> 5% -10% psf higher. i do think that they offer superior quality and that the higher prices
> are justified for that reason.

polisson, i don't think you can lump all these buildings into one bucket as you have done.

edge quality > nsp quality. but is it worth 5-10%? that's for the market to decide.
80 met and edge is roughly equal in terms of quality in my opinion. but the edge is on the water.
edge may be a tad better than 125 n 10th in quality, but 125 n 10th is less than 10% after price cuts.

also, even assuming the edge is priced in line with comps. the comps as a whole are not really selling. so all you are saying is that the edge is priced in line with other overpriced developments.

milkman - I did NOT write this. So direct your response at the author please . . .

I had this dream that I was the Edge. People talked about me behind my back, bad mouthing the neighborhood I'm from and saying things like, no one will ever love me. No one will ever live with me. People in Manhattan will point their finger at me and say, there's the problem. In my dream I start to swallow water...lots of it...I panic...I'm being water boarded by the CIA in some deep basement in Iraq but, somehow I'm relieved that I'm not the EDGE.