It's official...Market is DOWN...504 West 111th Street

ding ding ding ding ding
sound the alarms it is official

looks like we can put this one to bed

Well this is the first real, repeat sale I have seen. It could be that the building's financials hit the skids, but it's a significant drop over two years.

I think you meant this one:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/31506-coop-west-111th-street-morningside-heights-new-york

Nice find. There are some other repeat sales earlier in the thread.

Earlier in the "If you can demonstrate market movement..." thread, that is.

Yes- thank you. posted the wrong link. But down 4% since October 2006. Factoring in a 5% broker's fee and it's down 8.8% (not including any other fees)...ouch ouch ouch.

also look at the apartment on the 5th floor at 755 west end. the same line on the second floor sold for 1.7 and this is lowered now to 1.3. The lower floor was fully renovated but still seems like a big drop for a higher floor.

From $599 to $575...let me take my checkbook out right now. What no one is saying is the $599k original listing was overpriced by probably $150k. So a $24k drop is nothing.

yes, comparables are good but there's too much "noise" in looking at these sort of comps bc you have to look at renovations, etc. The best comps are the exact same apartment, renovated before the first sale, like 504 west 111th. IT was featured on HGTV in 2006, so you know the renovations haven't depreciated that much.

Julia - I agree...still overpriced, but the market is heading down. Remember high school physics..every action has an equal and opposite reaction. So if the market goes up for 5 years straight, it could take 5 years to correct, not two.

It must be a mistake. Spunky says Manhattan real estate never falls in value!

I think the most eloquent drop comp was the one posted (by tenemental?) in the other thread, about a new condo bldg. in the LES where 2 similar apartments in the same line, 4E and 6E, sold a few months ago for 645K and 5E was now listed for 550K and still unsold. That was a big drop in a very short span.

I agree that the market is headed down but Julia has a point. 8% from what -- from the highest asking price for that comp, or for true market trades of that comp?

Plus, we might wonder: if Morningside Heights is down by 8%, will other sub-markets reflect the same decline? There may be a rare sub-market here or there that doesn't move much or that even goes up a bit.

NYC always was and still is a city of neighborhoods. Dramatically different neighborhoods that are probably going to respond differently to the economic downturn.

There may be more potential buyers for certain addresses -- certainly a high-end foreign buyer who would consider Park Ave. might not show much interest in Little Italy, or Morningside Heights, or Kip's Bay.

This is apart from the consideration that most high-end buyers will only acquire real estate with the expectation that they are going to make money on the deal; high-end people don't spend multiple millions without the expectation of making money -- or at least of not losing money.

Because of that, I think most foreign buyers are not terribly likely to buy into a declining market -- in any neighborhood. But even if they do buy, they will only buy in selective neighborhoods.

So I think it's going to be a very mixed picture. A year from now, we may see 10% declines uptown and 7% declines downtown and 25% declines in Brooklyn, and some really ugly stuff in qns and the brx.

I think you are right. the foreigners will save us. Like SteveF says, "everybody wants to live here"

Check out the Euro and pound .... Any recent European buyers will be getting quite nervous if the Dollar continues like this..

"in the LES"

Not possible. Ask petrfitz.

take a look at 575 riverside dr # 35

That's a great apartment...has the price really dropped by over $200K. Not really a repeat sale, but significant. Being by Fairway must have some value...

GraffitiGrammarian: "I agree that the market is headed down but Julia has a point. 8% from what -- from the highest asking price for that comp, or for true market trades of that comp?"

Follow West81st's link in the 4th post and one of Riv_Drive's links in the 1st. These are closed sales prices, not discounts from asking. The person who bought in 06 just sold below his/her own purchase price. I think Julia's point was that $599 was WAY too much, and $575k is still too much. I don't know the unit, but I get what she's saying. I've seen units sell this year below comps that were still overpriced to me.

Trompiloco, thanks. It was the A Building at 425 E 13th St. To be fair, the contracts at $645k on 4E and 6E were signed at some point in 07, so it was really a YOY drop. But, the current asking of $550k is just that, asking. It may go even lower. What makes this so interesting is that with a 15% decrease in value, the owners of 4E and 6E may very well be under water like so many around the country, assuming they bought with 10% down, which would have been possible when they closed. Definitely a case where Manhattan is NOT different.

When a one bedroom is listed at $500k then drops 8% to me that would appear the market is in a correction mode. But studio apts are still listing at $450k and one bedrooms are still listing at $750k..for now I've given up and am going to rent a one bedroom (non-doorman) for $2450.

oops, sorry, you're right, tenemental.

That seems like a lot to spend on rent. Even though the market is falling, I'm still glad I own (bought in 2000) - I live in a 1-BR doorman building on RSD and my fixed rate mortgage is only $1300/month, plus another $600 in maintenance. Still ahead by renting.

oops..I mean still ahead by owning...

Riv_Drive...'2000 was a very good year...you were smart and lucky. $1900 is terrific but it's not going to happen in today's market for a one bedroom

Yes- I feel lucky. I think it would cost me about $2500 to rent my apartment right now. I always hated renting...hated handing that check over every month. I always lived in crappy buildings - always trying to save for a down payment. Maybe if I had lived in nicer buildings I would have felt like I was getting something for my money.

One price drop and you see a trend?

Riv_Drive: Remember high school physics..every action has an equal and opposite reaction. So if the market goes up for 5 years straight, it could take 5 years to correct, not two.

Words of wisdom indeed. Also remember high school phys ed and how the fat guy always seems to be the slowest to finish the cross country track and gets picked last for basketball, and didn't have too many friends.

huh? How does this relate to NY real estate?

111st Street? Is that the best you can do? I would NEVER live above 86th street! YUCK!

that's 4% on face