Tales from the rental market part 2

https://streeteasy.com/building/239-east-79-street-new_york/4n
Is this a pretty good deal?
Seems like a lot of space for less than 5k, even if interior is a bit dated and no washer/dryer.

@Krolik that seems to be a pretty good deal. But admittedly I haven't been looking in that market.

@steve123 it may just be me, but the quality of life in NYC has really degraded and I don't see why it would improve from here. The car traffic is brutal, and its made worse by (seemingly arbitrary) street shut downs. Lyft/Uber prices are +50%, getting cabs is hard, and the subways are well NYC subways. Restaurants are harder to get reservations and the prices are screaming higher (out of curiousity I ordered a $25 lasagna from an average restaurant for delivery which I assumed must be enough to feed two.. nope). And its going to get colder again as you noted. Never mind the eventual tax hikes and congestion pricing (which to be fair, isn't a next 6 month thing).

My family is here, so we clearly like the city enough to stay... but we are having real conversations now for the first time about leaving. I also wonder whether those who are returning, whether they will be scratching their heads in a few months and leave again (not because of pandemic, but for newly discovered quality of life reasons). Although the really low inventory seems to suggest otherwise!

I think car traffic is worse because people feel safer rom COVID in a car than on a subway. Hopefully less of a problem as COVID goes away.

I hear prices of Uber and Lyft are insane everywhere else too due to labor shortages. Used to be super cheap in Chicago, but very expensive now, for example. Other prices are higher, but that's true everywhere too, due to inflation. Rent increased a lot more in many other states and cities. Basically, some of these issues are not NYC-specific.

@ Anonymouse - wife and I have had similar thoughts.
We'd have been happy to get full remote gigs and stay out in nowhere another 2 years and save up, even if it meant a 20% pay cut.. we'd still come out way ahead.

When we moved out to nowhere we thought it would be a 3-6 month affair, then be back in city 95% with weekend out here now & then.
Over a year later (and 3-6 more months to go we think), we're now looking at how we can do more of a 50-50 approach.

My company is settling into a target ~50% WFH model. In my leadership hierarchy the 4 managers from me to C-suite will now sit in 4 different states, after previously sitting on the same floor of the same tower in midtown.
So it's really going to be a completely different world.

Every time we go back to the city I am reminded how much of a pain in the ass everything is in both time and money. I think new move-ins and long-timers who've never lived elsewhere have a sort of Stockholm Syndrome about it. 75% of people I mention it to look at me like I have 3 heads, the other 25% its like a wink-and-nod that they also know the secret that life doesn't have to be quite so hard.

Your $25 mediocre lasagna for one story rings true. I keep joking I'm going to bring my garden produce back to the city with me next summer and pay off my mortgage with heirloom tomatoes (which are the most braindead easy things to grow in the Northeast but still command absurd sums at city farmers markets).

@Krolik interesting regarding the inflation point. That makes sense it's everywhere. But I find it hard to believe other cities have incomes that can support the $35 15 minute Uber and $25 average Lasagna, so the price increases feel particularly egregious. But maybe its everywhere and here's the rub.. the market here supports it. I remember first laughing when offered a $25 cheeseburger on a restaurant menu... now its the value play!

@steve123 what we are really struggling with is idea of commute and schooling. I think my family is now OK with the idea of commuting for the first time. That's a step change for us, driven by the cost - but probably moreso the quality - of city life. My wife got stuck in traffic in the tunnel for what should have been a 1.5hr round trip that took 5.0 hours... random streets closed and tunnel entrance closed... she nearly los ther mind. We had a nice meal in West Village and it was $300 but nothing particularly special... I used to go to a restaurant in the same location which was fun and hip and would have been $120 for same 'experience' (this would have been 13 years ago). What we do struggle with is we are very happy with our kid's school experience. How much are we willing to sacrifice for ourselves for the kid's schooling is the question. We sure aren't going to spend $100K/YR for 8' ceilings and cramped space (on top of 55% marginal tax, congestion tax, $500 parking, $25 lasagna). So our solution is to either (i) have enough savings to buy the $3.5MM 1500 sqft UES apartment that would give us space / high ceilings, (ii) move to UWS (which will soon be the new conversation), or (iii) just pull the ripcord and get out of the city (whether that's to another more livable city or the surrounding area).

@Mouse

The costs are really something else and related to why I do NOT think hybrid is in anyway bullish for NYC RE as some of the parma-bulls have said "well it means people need more space so bigger apartments!".

I have a friend living in a place similar size/budget to what you are talking, ~$3.5M. He is a super positive pro-family guy who never complains about his wife/kids and I've known him almost 20 years. He felt he didn't have enough room for both WFH at same time spouse is WFH even in their $3.5M apartment, and had looked at some $5M units as a potential upgrade. Even then he wasn't really in love with what he was seeing for $5M, and figures he'll just sock the cash away and retire earlier. This is a guy living in housing well beyond the reach of even most well heeled NYers...

Likewise, seeing the end of G&T programs in NYC public school after we've already seen pre-pandemic enrollment declines does make me wonder about the move out of the city. We can argue about the value of G&T, but I jokingly called it the affirmative action for medium yuppies. Those who can't afford private, and maybe aren't in the best local elementary zone but wanted to stay in city. The return of G&T programs with Bloomberg did coincide with the 00s-10s baby boom in the city, maybe it is a historical anomaly and we will go back to people aging out once they have kids and leaving.

If you can make $300K TC writing software from home anywhere, why put up with all this garbage?

$35 15 minute Ubers are in Chicago for sure.

I think there are a lot of exaggerations above. I can think of many good restaurants where you can have a good experience for $120. Might it be that your expectations have increased significantly in the last few years?

I am just surprised why thought process in several posts above is very black and white: either a very large apartment in a "Super Prime" area, or a move outside the city? There are 4 other more affordable boroughs, and also apartments in just "Prime" and not "Super Prime" areas are much cheaper.

@steve123 What is that G&T issue? Any link to an explainer article?

@Krolik - Gifted & Talented programs are being eliminated for new entrants starting next year.

@Krolik - It is not always so simple I think as just move to cheaper area of city.
If you live in UES for the great local school zoning, proximity to best private schools, and quick commute to work.. then moving to say Park Slope might still cost you 30-40% less but ruin your commute and take you away from said private schools.

Leaving Manhattan makes you more car dependent and traffic in the city is horrific.

In the meantime you can go move to some nearby suburb for 70% less with your kids going to the nearby good local school, lots of green space and easy driving on weekends.

On costs, the $25 lasagna cracks me up because it lines up with my experience. It's not entirely driven by tastes changing.. things have just gotten insane. I lived in UWS for 12 years and there was a place we used to get a nice lasagna. No Michelin star or anything. And not family style portion. This was a single person almost tapas style where you probably still order a salad and side dish. Out of curiosity I checked the menu an hour ago.. its now $29 :-)

Costs are pretty wild, and if you haven't lived outside the city, maybe you don't quite have the feel for it. You can easily get by on 1/3 to 1/2 the income. If you don't have to go to office more than 2-3 days/week.. the calculus changes a lot. Maybe one spouse can take a few years off, you can get a car, you actually have space for the parents to stay and watch the kids for the weekend, etc.

I know it was a long time ago but fairly high up on the list of reasons I originally wanted to live in Greenwich Village was the wide array of places where you could get dinner for 2 under $30. Eric Asimov started the NY Times "$25 and Under" column in 1992 reviewing some very nice places. That was true till about ?2000? By 2008 they couldn't even find places to keep it a weekly column and in 2012 it was gone altogether.

I've never really been surprised that much by the prices of the top restaurants in NYC (I used to dine reasonably regularly at the original Bouley on Duane St). What did surprise me was when kind of meh experiences for "weekday night neighborhood spots" went to $120, and now apparently over $300.

Inflation adjusted, there are still places for $50 for two (without drink, shared appetizer and dessert). Recent addition is Simo pizza on University. There are some good sit-down ramen shops, Yakitori places, and a few sit-down Chinese and Indian places. There is Moustache and if you want to count Mamoun.

Here is a place I order from. Very good food but not really sit down.
https://www.mintmasalanyc.com/page.php/view-menu/page/54

There are places like Han Dynasty on 3rd Ave.

Then there is Lasgna for $16 something at a nice place.

https://lalanternacaffe.com/files/136330158.pdf

Mouse, Burbs are calling you. Just do it!! Of course, a house in a burb with very good public school close to the city will cost you $2mm plus. If you really want private school for your kids, Pingri or eqt is not much cheaper than NYC private schools.

You can still find deals in the city, but its more the exception than the default.
And certainly Pizza/Chinese/Ramen are a different price category.

I think the thing that stands apart to some degree is how mediocre a meal you can get in the city for $250+ for 2 people with perfunctory service.

There's also the whole inhospitality of the hospitality industry in the city.
Any restaurant that remotely sees itself as "hot" will give you an experience as follows:
* Must book reservation 2 weeks in a advance Monday at midnight when they release tables but before they book up at 5 minutes after midnight
* You will be texted & emailed the day before to confirm and warned of penalty charge
* You will be texted again an hour before to remind you you are due and that you lose your table after 15min lateness
* You arrive to a host doing their best to avoid making eye contact, who will then direct you to the bar to give them more money on drinks where you will need to kill 30 minutes past your reservation time while they work on finding you a table
* Finally you get a table, they either deliver food in whatever order they feel like (his entree and her app, followed by his app and her entree?) .. and then sort of rush you out so they can turn the table again

Steve,

I can find far better places for 2 for $150 with one drink each without any wait and attitude. Food is very good. They are many such places downtown. Uptown food is not as good and prices are higher. Of course, if you are looking for Michelin star, in most cases you will deal with pretention and high prices.

https://www.villagetaverna.com/

Try finding this in a burb.
https://www.chamamama.com/

@300_mercer My friend who is from that region raves about this last restaurant you linked, it is apparently a really good find!!! NYC is all about being able to find various types of cuisines and entertainment options - which suburb has this?

In terms of inflated groceries, I am always shocked at Manhattan supermarket prices, but found that some brooklyn and queens supermarkets with amazing prices deliver for free or for $5.

I think Mouse's problem is not just the commute and location, but also interior finishes and ceiling height. A friend recently bought a place in UES but further east, true 3 bed for 1.7M, all renovated, not sure about ceiling height. I think decent places at decent prices exist just outside the super prime zones. Don't have to move to Park Slope.

Indeed. There are good options in NYC for all price ranges. Personally, $25 per person dimsum at Ping's in Chinatown is hard to beat in any suburb. And service is great as you can order from the menu rather than just pick up from the cart. Try finding that Egg Custard tart and Sesame Balls with Lotus paste ($5 for serving with 3 each) in a burb .

"NYC is all about being able to find various types of cuisines and entertainment options - which suburb has this?"

Mouse just wants fine everything - private schools, car in the city, multiple take out meals a week, nice apartment in premium hood / location, and a lot of savings relative to his income. So burbs with top quality public schools is where he may find peace and happiness in my humble opinion. But only he and his family can make that decision.

I was in nowhere Georgeland Aspen late summer. Mediocre food at 50% higher prices.

Denver mediocre food at slightly cheaper than NYC price. If you just want a burger, sure it will be 30-40% cheaper in Denver.

Nice burbs have better public school and perhaps 30-50% cheaper housing going for them. But that is it and it is nothing new. It has always been that way.

Re: attitude, I think I spend too much time dining in Brooklyn

Re: mouse
Agree his tastes are too high for what he wants to save with no compromises on car housing school etc etc

Re: burbs
I think people have an outdated 90s vote in their minds. The burbs are nearly as diverse as city now especially the ones that are filled with city emigrants. It’s not just white yuppies who want more space. If you live near a good college all the more so.

I have Greek, Turkish, Israeli, regional Italian, French, German, Thai, Vietnamese, Japanese (sushi, izakaya and standard), Chinese (dim sum and standard), Mexican, various South American, Caribbean, etc

I concede no Georgian here but last I had it I found it too rich. Also missing pho and Korean.

anyway happy if I can figure an inverted schedule doing some city time and more outside it personally but everyone has their own priority and budget. I think I’ll retire a decade earlier this way.

Going to a fancy restaurant needing advance reservations in Greenwood near Denver with servers dressed in Robert Palmers "Addicted to Love" style make me think - this is it? Food was ok but in NYC it wouldn't survive at those prices with that food.

https://www.jingrestaurant.com/denver/menu/

Another option that quite a few of my clients over this last year discovered, Brooklyn is a nice alternative to moving to the suburbs if you're not quite ready for that yet.

There never have been any great restaurants or dining options in midtown east or the Upper East side ; )
Gentrification killed a lot of the small cafes and bistros that used to be in the East/ West Village and various other places, rent is just too damn high.

That said as Steve has alluded to, there are still a lot of great, interesting options throughout Brooklyn!

That said even with kids when I was younger, I loved to explore the various neighborhoods for food. How many on this board have been to Arthur avenue for the best cannolis in New York!

Keith
TBG

@Keith What do your clients think about Queens? Which neighborhoods are popular besides LIC?

We don't do much business in Queens, most of it concentrated in LIC.

We've recently done a few house sales in Ridgewood, a few deals in Astoria. We've also done a few house sales in Forest Hills, this particular neighborhood is a bit akin to doing business in the wild West.

Sunnyside has definitely been a neighborhood that many people have been talking about for quite a few years. We've also begun representing people in Westchester, basically testing the market. We will need to join the one key MLS, which I haven't done yet. We've got our second offer on a home in Westchester as of today.

Keith
TBG

Assisting a client with a co-op purchase in Bay Ridge. Definitely a buyer market. This is one of my original clients, they purchased with us in 2009, typically this is not something I would get involved with but I like this couple very much. Sold their place in Brooklyn Heights about a year ago, went to Connecticut. Now coming back to NYC.

This board has been much more patient and fair than other boards :)

@ I can think of many good restaurants where you can have a good experience for $120. Might it be that your expectations have increased significantly in the last few years?
I don't think so. Plenty of good meals to be had for $120, $50 and $15. But it wasn't the point one can find crazy good tamales and make a date night out of it under the stars. The point was there are so many restaurants where it is $200+ for two with drinks/tip, and they aren't necessarily special and its a higher % than before. One needs to now really look at a Manhattan menu in advance unless one doesn't want to get clipped by a $25 cocktail (when tax/tip are included). I'm not even sure what to $$ or three $$$ means on opentable anymore (and I screen out four $$$$ off the bat). Someone from out of town gave me an extravagant gift certificate to Chef's Table, but I haven't gone because the amount neither will cover dinner for one person let alone two...!

@I think Mouse's problem is not just the commute and location, but also interior finishes and ceiling height.
My problem is other renters don't view it as a problem. Bare minimum ceiling height or a kitchen from the 80s is something many other are willing to live with. I assume they are happy doing so, because it would if if they were not. Then it is both of our problems!

@I am always shocked at Manhattan supermarket prices, but found that some brooklyn and queens supermarkets with amazing prices deliver for free or for $5
What are these places? Please share! We use FreshDirect, which doesn't have the lowest pricing. It can be jarring sometimes to learn what something costs at TraderJoes vs. FD or WF.

@Mouse just wants fine everything - private schools, car in the city, multiple take out meals a week, nice apartment in premium hood / location, and a lot of savings relative to his income.
Yes. Which is easily doable in other cities and suburbs. That said, if we were not in the city, we woudn't be doing private school.

@Agree his tastes are too high for what he wants to save with no compromises on car housing school etc etc.
Savings + car + take out + nice apartment don't seem egregious to me... I can see a Democratic politician saying we all deserve this or to aspire to this. My tastes are only too high versus my income in NYC, although the taxes are crushing and I think I'm losing before I even go out and taste anything.

@There never have been any great restaurants or dining options in midtown east or the Upper East side ; )
I think Midtown is a bit better than UES!

I will stop hogging the board though. I think everyone now knows the situation pretty well. I expect more than one can get for $100K/year, which is my budget. I could increase my budget and spend a higher % of my income to get what I want, but I don't view it as financially prudent to do what the crowds may be doing. Right now I am iterating on moving to the UWS instead of the UES... perhaps around 86th to cut across the Park quickly if needed... seems the housing stock there is better for the same $ (more space, bigger windows, higher ceilings and more interiors that have been updated in the past 10 years). Otherwise, I do think we are moving to the Burbs.

Just to stir the pot on a different topic: I think the burbs cultural competitiveness as a living location to NYC has really gained in the post-Internet era. You can get yuzu sauced pork shops, Indian food and perfectly baked scones in the surbs... I imagine partly due to the Internet commoditizing that information as well as continued immigration. A 60" TV can be as fun an experience to watch most sports as going in person (especially taking into cost, traffic, hassle etc.). There are plenty of concerts and things to do as well, never mind easier access to biking, in person sports, hiking, skiing, etc. I don't buy into the idea that New York is the center of the universe, but I feel like many people accept the low QOL/high COL because they either think its the center of the universe or have just gotten used to it. I am in that latter bucket, and its hard to break the thinking.

@Mouse - agreed on the food cultural breakthrough. I think I started to notice ~5-10 years back but its really accelerated now.
One aspect is social media hyped cuisines and food trends just move more quickly than they did 20 years ago. Stuff that used to take half a decade or more to dissipate out to the burbs seems to replicate in months.

Another aspect is again, the suburbs are just far more diverse than they were 20 years ago. This was covered extensively in the runup to 2020 elections.

Grew up in distant part of working class area of CT and it felt like a backwater. Left 20 years ago with no intention of ever going back. Choices for food were diner, pizza, Chinese takeout, blah. Late 90s we started to get Sushi/Hibachi combos lol. In the fancier towns further down I-95 I might get some French and I think there was a Thai place.

Now whenever I see my parents they are taking me to the new Thai, Vietnamese, etc. Apparently someone started a distillery in my hometown now too. If I was in Greenwich-Westport corridor of CT, I don't think I'd have a problem for food these days.

A relative moved 200 miles south to a suburban-rural, red MAGA county .. and they have Thai, Korean, Vietnamese Pho & bubble tea nearby.. its unbelievable.

Anyway, if you want more space but decent food.. pick a suburb thats still pretty rich, diverse, closer to the city, and if possible near a good college that gets international students.

Freshdirect prices are really high!
I highly recommend www.netcostmarket.com/

1)There is supermarket on my block, open until 10pm every day, and a deli open 24 hours
2) Two coffee shops within a block, a taco place, two Asian places, a pizza shop, a bar, etc.
3) A dry cleaners, a nail salon, and three hair salons also within a one block radius
4) A yoga studio one block away, and few gyms and boutique fitness studios within a few blocks
5) A top 10 in the US medical center with most specialties two blocks away, a dentist in my building
6) Few blocks to subway and buses if i want to get to world class everything, shopping, entertainment, sports, etc.
7) A park few blocks away
8) Public schools nearby have pretty good ratings as far as I can tell
9) Walking distance to work

No suburb has this kind of convenience. Can trade commute time for money by living in other boroughs or Harlem - less convenient locations are proportionally lower priced.

City housing stock is old, not too many chances to construct something brand new, so supply of recent construction with higher ceiling heights is limited and sold/rented at a huge premium to a number of people who care for those things. For the rest of us who care about the location and amount of space more than finishes, there are more affordable 8" ceiling options.

Forgive me for being clueless about burbs. How do people get home after a nice dinner for two with a bottle of wine? Uber/Lyft for dinner while your luxury car is parked at home?

I meant to add that usually people in burbs may be travelling 5-10 miles for a nice dinner to a nearby town.

Krolik, My pre-seasoned baby lamb chops at Wholefoods today were the same price as netcost $21.99 (vs Lamb Chops at a butcher shop in Georgeland Aspen at $69.99 which I didn't buy). I think if you mix Wholefoods with Trader Joes (or Chinatown), overall cost is very reasonable. I prefer to get my food in person so that I can look at what I am getting.

@300 Mercer re eating in the burbs, it depends on the burb of course. You can live in/near Princeton, NJ and have access to dozens of restaurants of varying price, quality and ethnicity. I asume the highs won't hit the highs of NYC (i.e., I doubt there are many restaurants with $400 per person Omakase etc.). The uber/lyfts are cheaper and many of those restaurants are BYO. It is a university town as well, so I imagine there are plenty of cultural events (but you won't get 3 improv shows to pick up, 6 jazz ensembles to pick from etc.). I'm not sure what the Lyft situation is getting from Princeton to other smaller towns that may have a reason to have dinner there etc. But yea, there is no denying it is a different density game in the burbs... personally, I wish I could get a job in a Tier II/more livable city.

@Krolik Thank you for sharing NetCost. Hadn't heard of it and it sounded like a massive cost saving opportunity. But on a quick search, it looks like FreshDirect pricing is same/better and has a better interface. NetCost pricing 1st, FreshDirect 2nd. Happy to be judged for this shopping list (maybe if I eat less Avocado Toast I can get the condo!)
Absolutely Gluten Free Crackers: $4.99 vs. $4.99
Grassmilk $6.99 vs. $5.99
Happytot Stage 4 Kiwi: $1.79 vs. $1.60
Grassfed Burger (1lb): $10.99 vs $9.49
Sir Kensingtons Dijon: $6.99 vs. $5.99
8oz Whole Baby Bella: $2.29 vs. $2.49

If I use Netcost I can order now for delivery on Tuesday, but on Freshdirect, the soonest available delivery is on Wednesday evening.

I find NetCost interface very easy, there are convenient checkout and reorder buttons and I use the search function a lot. I think this is a function of what you are used to. Freshdirect I also find very easy. I hate shopping for food on Amazon though.

Netcost is an israeli/russian supermarket, so no brand name veggies and milk products and "ethnic" products are priced very well, but maybe other products not so well. You would not go shopping for gourmet cheese, almond milk and grassfed burgers at a Chinatown supermarket, but on the other hand, you could buy cheap fish and veggies. I also personally do not prefer buying "organic" products, so we might have very different looking baskets. FreshDirect often does not even have a non-organic option. When I last evaluated costs, when I spent $100 I got a lot more food from NetCost than amazon or wholefoods or FreshDirect. I did my comparison about 9 months ago, so let me check again, selecting cheapest available product in each category at both:

FD boneless pork chops 6.99 / lb
NC boneless pork chops 3.99 / lb

FD Chobani Greek yogurt, Strawberry 5.3oz 1.49 ea ($2 off if you buy 10), earliest delivery on Thursday
NC Chobani Greek yogurt, Strawberry 5.3oz 0.99 ea (delivered tomorrow)

FD 1/2 gallon JustFreshDirect 2% milk $2.69
NC 1/2 gallon Derle Farms 2% milk $2.49

FD grape tomatoes 10oz $3.49
NC grape tomatoes 1 pint $1.99 or cherry tomatoes 10Oz $1.99

I conclude that NetCost is still materially cheaper for someone with my peasant taste :-)

>> City housing stock is old, not too many chances to construct something brand new, so supply of recent construction with higher ceiling heights is limited and sold/rented at a huge premium to a number of people who care for those things. For the rest of us who care about the location and amount of space more than finishes, there are more affordable 8" ceiling options.

I have always managed to find great apts at non-premium prices. Frankly, I’d be depressed too at the prospect of paying $80 ppsf for the $8500 apt above Fairway. Over the years, I’ve always managed better:

- $40 for parlor floor apt in UWS, dated renovation with original detail in questionable condition, 11-12’ ceilings
- $40 for generic-ish new construction in UWS, low-floor, 9’ ceilings
- $40 for newly renovated loft in LES, 10’ ceilings with a 20’ portion that had expansive light
- $60 for older construction w/ direct / expansive Central Park views, 8’ ceilings
- $100 for ultra-luxury new construction in , pretty high floor, expansive views, 10’ ceilings
- $80 for ultra-luxury new construction in , really high floor, even more expansive views, ridiculous ceiling height

The first 4 apts all had a thing or two you could point to as a flaw. But to me, the “redeeming features” outweighed the flaws. The 5th had no flaws. And the 6th is over the top.

The key has been flexibility — I don’t have any set criteria — and the willingness to make a move when/where others aren’t doing so, for whatever random reason. None of this “the only place I can live is 3 blocks around subway station X” business. Might not work for you, but it has worked for me.

I think it's all going to depend on how you decide to live in the burbs and where. Just to take mouse as an example he seems to have pretty high standards, no judgment. If you're going to live in one of the New York City suburbs that has public schools you would be happy to send your kids to, I'm guessing you're going to pay between 2 to 3 million for a home. Property taxes will be between $50 to 70K+ a year.

Maintaining and running a home like this is not cheap and of course you'll need two cars. A friend who just bought in Westchester is facing about 100K+ to deal with drainage problems and flooding into his basement. If the insurance company decides not to pay for the damage done already, tack on another 75k to that. Make sure you have flood insurance even if you're not in a known flood zone, this way if your sump pump fails, French drain is clogged or you have an extremely big storm come through, you don't get into a protracted fight with your insurance company. Flood damage is not part of a standard homeowner's policy.

Of course if you're willing to go to a less tony suburb, perhaps something in Bergen County, New Jersey, or maybe the park slope of New Jersey; Maplewood or something like nutley or Montclair, you'll probably save a little bit on taxes and home purchase, but most likely if your standards are very high for school you'll, still be going private.

I don't think it's whole foods / trader Joe's /net foods that's breaking budgets.

I have no opinion on whether the suburbs or living in the city is better for anyone. I personally loved growing up in New Jersey, however I did run off to NYC when I was 18. On the other hand my two children that were raised in Manhattan, couldn't have imagined living anywhere else. And one of them still lives there.

I was always willing to live in marginal neighborhoods, marginal buildings, smallish apartments to pay cheap rent! And although I currently own a very beautiful house thanks to a significant renovation, I bought when everybody was mailing their keys back to the bank and thought I was crazy. I just needed a home base, something I could comfortably afford and knew I could afford in the future. The decision worked out quite well for me. I just don't think there's anything better than living below your means, but that's just me. Then I don't feel guilty or stressed when I take the family to Zermatt to ski. That's just the way I roll, I like spending money on travel not a mortgage/taxes/upkeep.

Guess the point of this long rant, moving to the suburbs doesn't automatically equate to a less expensive lifestyle. And if you do have to start commuting 5 days a week again, that can be a big hassle and it's certainly not for everyone.

When your emotionally ready to cut ties with the city, the suburbs certainly can be a breath of fresh air. But it comes with its own set of sacrifices and quirks.

Keith
TBG

As an example, I’ll (again) point out an apt in 111 Murray, sitting in a school-loving, stroller-patrol, prime neighborhood:

https://streeteasy.com/rental/3323922

It was asking $79 ppsf this past winter. You could have probably gotten it for $65-70. Pandemic pricing, you say? Some. But even the prior year, it was asking $83, and you could have gotten it for $75-80.

Mind you, this is an apt that cost $2500 ppsf to buy with $40 ppsf in monthlies, with about the fanciest amenities I’ve ever seen.

Nada,
111 Murray went up to a more normal pricing looking at this. Granted higher floor and better view (this one facing west vs previous one which seemed to be facing south).
https://streeteasy.com/building/111-murray-street/30b

I don't know what normal pricing is really -- I just look for the best pricing.

I don't think 20B was that much of an outlier. E.g., 24A was asking $94 in May, with a better exposure:

https://streeteasy.com/rental/3527365

I think 30B has all the following going for it:

- higher floor
- better views
- 12' ceilings rather than 10' (seems special to the 30th floor)
- super-fancified: Lutron-ed out, custom millwork throughout, lights in closet drawers, fancy dining table light, etc.
- fully furnished, two 80" TVs, etc.

Add on top of that a few market factors:

- normal summer vs. winter spread
- winter 2020 was the lowest I've seen the market by far
- summer 2020 was the most bid I've seen the market in at least 5 years

For comparison, here's 30A asking $96 in July:

https://streeteasy.com/building/111-murray-street/30a

Same floor, better exposures, no fancification, not furnished, earlier in the rush-to-return.

300, in our experience of 'burb dining (we are Upper West Siders who spend part of our summer in Westchester) one person draws the short straw to be the designated driver and not drink. You can't always rely on getting an Uber/Lyft on a date night.

And the car problem is part of what keeps us in the city. I certainly agree that prices and probably total experience/QOL were better in NYC twenty years ago (although then we have to start talking about crime, and about how people would get shot in Tribeca). But how good is your QOL going to be in the 'burbs if you have middle schoolers and have to drive them *everywhere*?

Ali, Exactly!! Burbs are not for every one but if you are willing to commute 1 hour+ each way, you can get a lot of house for your money in the burbs with very good public schools.

@Krolik -- The long list of things I can easily get to in NYC, at all price points, is, in my mind, one of the things that make NYC such a great city. Dollar slice? Yes, 4 blocks away. $200/person dinner? Also yes, also 4 blocks away (other direction, not next to the dollar slice place). $2m painting for sale? Yes, at Sothebys where I can leave a bid. $40m painting? Yes, viewing for free at the Met Museum.

Had a bottle of wine at dinner? I'm usually close enough to stagger home, or can crawl into a cab if needed. No car necessary, or potential loss of my license. I drink less in my Nowhere, because there's a very real risk of walking out of the local bar/restaurant after dinner and a couple beers and being stopped (college town, aggressive policing).

I'm mostly interested in the fine and performing arts, and the suburbs just don't compare. Yes there are excellent regional theatres (e.g., Princeton: McCarter theatre) and the occasional museum, but mostly it's pretty slim pickings, which is one of the things that keeps me in NYC.

@Krolik I was waiting for the grassfed/gluten free eyebrow (heck my did too when I saw the cost of milk)! But keeping gluten free isn't stopping me from getting that 3rd BR!

@Inoanda $60 for older construction w/ direct / expansive Central Park views, 8’ ceilings is something I would hit. 8' dark cavernous with a 1995 kitchen for $75 doesn't appeal to me. Hence, the exploratory idea of looking at the UWS instead.

@Burkhardt I thought Montclair, Maplewood etc. were tony? I don't aspire to live in Scarsdale (if that's the tony?). The current "premium hood fever" is attached to my handle is because of being in UES/UWS a little misplaced. They are logistically convenient to work/school (the major reason we are in NYC at this point) as opposed to seeking the prestige of the zip code (which I don't understand). Your ski analogy resonates well.. that is why we aren't stretching above our budget and paying higher rent... there are other things we value more then higher rent -- subject to keeping sane at home.

@Burkhardt The suburban budget I put together when looking at it wasn't as low as I expected; the biggest decline was private school. Those other costs really do add up. The bigger differences came from moving out of Northeast entirely... e.g. my savings rate would near **double** in Florida (driven by COLA and taxation). And hey there is always Puerto Rico. In any case, what we would love is another city over suburb.

Upper Montclair exclusively would is pretty big time, always has been. Otherwise there are variations. Regarding Maplewood, $1-1.5M will get you a pretty fine house, however there are also many very nice houses well under $1M. The train being right there is the big plus. I grew up in Jersey so I know the area well, if you're new to that neck of the woods you need to do some exploring.

@Mouse Have you looked into Chicago? Cheap rents and lot's of finance and law jobs.

Mouse>> $60 for older construction w/ direct / expansive Central Park views, 8’ ceilings is something I would hit. 8' dark cavernous with a 1995 kitchen for $75 doesn't appeal to me. Hence, the exploratory idea of looking at the UWS instead.

It dropped to ~$50 ppsf during the pandemic: I overpaid, dammit! Granted, it was a decade older, but still, there's this thing called inflation.

You just have to learn to broaden your search. Your notions of "I will determine a neighborhood, then I'll see if an apartment can work for me" haven't panned out. Try it in reverse, inonada-style: "I will determine an apartment, then I'll see if the neighborhood can work for me".

For example, if you can get past:

1) CPS for your school/work commute. (How hard can it be walking/biking to school in the park?)
2) The placard on the building.
3) Older finishes.
4) 8' ceilings.
5) Bad photos.
6) Poor taste in furniture & clutter.

I offer you a full-floor, 38th-floor penthouse overlooking Central Park. It's been asking $68 ppsf for 274 days, meaning it can probably be yours for $60 ppsf:

https://streeteasy.com/building/trump-parc/38a

True, its Central Park views aren't expansive because of the windowing effect of the external structure. But it's full-floor, 360-degree views, with interesting building detail to stare at via the surrounding "terraces". As a 2200 sq ft 3BR, it meets your space needs and then some. The $12.5K asking rent should be shave-able to $11K, well within your striking range. It's not perfect, there are downsides, but it has a lot of redeeming features. Especially compared to the $8.5K, 1300 sq ft, no-character cramped 3BR above Fairway you were willing to visit. (A hint of wisdom: living above a supermarket is probably not a good idea w.r.t. vermin.)

I'm feeling generous, so I'll throw you a bone of some pics of what it can look like when properly marketed:

https://streeteasy.com/building/trump-parc/ph38a
https://streeteasy.com/building/trump-parc/ph

It sold for $7.1M in 2013, and you can see its monthlies were $10.7K as of 2016. Probably at the asking rent now. Why? Who knows. People probably can't get past the name, and at some point I learned bad furniture & poor photos of prime apts are your friend. This is a penthouse on the 38th floor overlooking the park. Someone paid $3250 for it in 2013. Maybe they overpaid, I dunno, but how bad could it be?

I am moving!! I will fix up the broken cabinets myself.

Have not seen a deal like that.

You're welcome. Just get there before Mouse does...

To be honest, I hadn't felt giddy about a listing for a _long_ time now. While this one didn't fit into my watchlist criteria, a large number do. It's been a depressing 8 months, especially after the excitement of the preceding 8 months.

Great find! But I think you mean someone paid 14,500 for it in 2013.. not 3250. Or maybe I'm just misreading something in your post!?

Sorry, I meant someone paid $3250 ppsf to buy it in 2013. My writing composition skills leave something to be desired…

My parking garage just went from $275/month to $450/month. Nice.

Maybe my comprehension skills need some improvement...

Nah, that's on my Keith...

my => me

See?

Where the hell were you finding parking at $275, Mouse?

@inonada - exactly my thought. North Brooklyn charging about that. Can't imagine what kind of garage UES was that cheap

There's no composition when you live in The matrix ; )

There have been a number of small (<40 spots) unattended, monthly parking only garages which only figured out within the last year or two how much parking rates have increased. I was parking in one in prime GV until a few years ago ~$300/month

Vox interview with Matthew Stewart.

I saw the subtitle: "America’s upper-middle class works more, optimizes their kids, and is miserable" and thought of some of the comments upthread.

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22673605/upper-middle-class-meritocracy-matthew-stewart

Miller Samuel has inventory & new leases for Sept at normal-ish levels:

https://www.millersamuel.com/files/2021/09/Sep21MHTrent-nlINVmos-scaled.jpg

With rents ~10% lower than peak:

https://www.millersamuel.com/files/2021/09/Sep21MHTrent-conc-scaled.jpg

FP, thanks for the article — I enjoyed reading it.

@front_porch - yes, a great read
I think places like NYC/SF make people insane honestly.
Many of us here are in the 1-10% but came from less / were the ones to "make it out" in our family/friends circle from back home. We are now only surrounded by high earners/achievers/wealthy/famous/etc and it creates a neurosis in some.

Part of that neurosis is feeling like they are somehow not "keeping up". (I grew up in a $200K home, and I have a $2M apartment, but I work with people who have a $4M apartment!!)

Part of it is the "need" to rear their children to make another jump.
"If I made it out of the 50% and into the 5%, then I will groom my kid to make it into the 1% or 0.5% path." My parents went to a commuter school / didn't go to college, and I went to NYU, therefore my kid needs to go to Harvard.

NYC, especially Manhattan really puts people on a treadmill and some (from the extremely looking-down-nose responses upthread re:boros&burbs "how do I even have alcohol, lol") never look around to think if its really good or necessary or what they even want with their life.

I mean maybe I'm the crazy one, but it seems like having any of: millions in real estate / millions of net worth / being able to pay 2x median income just in rent / making nearly $1M/year .. yet still being pretty miserable is the outcome of a lack of introspection. The pandemic was a good time to do some of that introspection.

Well, I "made it out" from back home and NYC certainly makes me neurotic, financially. If I stay in Manhattan I will *never* have the purchasing power of my parents, who worked far less hard than I do, but yet had an easier time accessing many upper-middle-class goods, such as a big home, quality medical care, and the ability to finance a fancy higher education.

(*cue music*: "Why, oh why, oh why-o / did I ever leave Ohio?")

OTOH, in Manhattan I have a lot more... what phrase shall I use? ... "social capital"? ... "cultural capital"? than my parents ever did. I just had a closing and then lunch with the client, who is a subject matter expert in her field to the point that I would normally have had to go to a conference to meet her. We ate Daniel Boulud's food, which was of a quality that my parents would have had to fly to France to get. (Things may be different now in the town where I grew up, but I don't think so.) The network effects and the lifestyle luxuries available in the big city are harder to measure than "wow, I'll never be able to afford a third bedroom," but they're still a significant contributor to quality of life.

And in Mouse's defense, those are the things that probably haven't been accessible to him recently because 1) Pandemic and 2) when the kids are little you're not experiencing the city in the same way; you're just trying to tunnel out.

@Inonada DropCar in midtown
@FP what were you defending me against? (And thank you for defending me!)

fp at first glance I thought the article was by Martha Stewart ha ha -

According to Urban Digs Manhattan rental prices are back at 2019 levels
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qemLqfFdgk4

Here’s a fun one at a decent price, which I haven’t seen in a while:

https://streeteasy.com/building/rutherford-place/ph1001

I guess I'm not surprised to not be hearing talk of how rental deal activity seems to have dropped by over 50% since recent peak.

Time for a 3rd thread . . . . LOL

Thought I posted here with an update, but it never made it through. Will keep this one brief! Rented a 3BR/2BA in UES . Right layout for us, in that the sq ft is larger (1400), the bathrooms are smaller, and the layout does not result in too much 'dead space'. Its really a 2BR that was converted into a 3BR, but it suits our purpose. I think I got it 5% less than I expected in current market, so it was "value". But in keeping with the UES, I'm paying 50% more for 35% more space, slightly worse finishings than I currently enjoy and new lower 8' ceilings. preparing for the move, one thing that surprised me is lack of closet space has meant buying a few $K of furniture to store clothing etc. (and furniture today is NOT cheap... Ikea quality stuff is now $1K+ and it can take 4 months for delivery given the pandemic). I can see us in the unit for 3-4YRs at which point we will have to figure out what our longer term plans are.... continue renting in Manhattan, buying, or moving out. This would have all been easier if I listed to the smart money and bought Ethereum at $400.

Congratulations!

Congrats! How much was it? Did you lock in a multi-year deal? Did prices go down from the late summer highs?

Congrats, Mouse. Glad to hear your search has concluded!

Was a 3BR listed in the mid $8,xxx per month; I paid an additional 1 month broker fee that amortizes over a 2YR lease. Earlier this year the building was no broker fee + 2 free months. I think the rent ask is the same as pre-COVID. Multiple applications came in, but we were first. Good light, great staff, and an owner that seems to value tenant continuity as opposed to churning them out with massive rent increases like big box/REIT owned rental units. Now I am looking for a parking garage in the area and am stunned by rates... $800/month for an SUV. Thinking of keeping car in midtown and ubering to it the 2x a month we actually use it... would save $4-5K a year!

As somebody who once again parks in upper midtown / lower upper east side, it may not be worth it, unless you're quite far east. After a brief dip in prices, monthly parking is above where it was pre-Covid.

For years, I lived 2 subway stops away from my car in Bklyn, and while it was a financial bargain (1/2 the cost of parking closer), the extra time and stress wasn't worth it. The idea of loading up a car in order to drive across town to unload the goods and reload them into another car is beyond rational, in my view (I'm not that strapped for cash, and am willing to pay up for the particular convenience of easy access to the car, which I use 3x/month).

@Aaron2 I wonder if my situation will be different. The plan would be to uber to pick up the car and bring it back to the apt building where it would be loaded. And after unloading at the building (with a doorman to potentially help + a second parent), drop it off back at the garage. Will be extra time, but I don't see the extra stress. Also Ubering vs. walking/transferring to the subway makes it less stressful. That said, never needed to do this before and imagine there is some convenience to having the car in the garage right next door. I always assumed $1K/monthly parking was a something only billionaires did, not most of the UES!!

Many moons ago, I used to park in Midtown and taxi from my UWS apt to save a few hundred bucks a month. It wasn’t that big a chore, probably drove a couple of times a month like you are doing. Often I’d walk from work to the garage on a Friday before leaving for the weekend. At that point, I cared about my car not getting dinged up, and this garage was self-park, so that was a big perk. Eventually, the 2008 crisis happened, I cared less about the car getting dinged, and the price differential dropped, so I started parking near my apt.

Good news on this one is you can just try it out for a few months. You’ll see if it works for you / is worth it. If not, easy enough to change. For me, as the years went on I found myself using the car less and less while also caring about the money less and less. Eventually, the hassle of simply maintaining a car (change oil, change tires, fix X) relative to the amount I was going to use it (6x a year?) led me to sell the car and just use the Classic Car Club as my alternative to Zipcar. Despite my youth’s love affair with the automobile, I was done with lifestyle choices that would lead me to spend hours of my life driving around.

Ironically, the RE gods had other plans for me. My new apt last year came with a deeded parking space. It wasn’t really a perk for me, but not wanting to waste the ~$10K/yr it represented, I was “forced” to buy a car. Its main use has been to putter to the beach in the Rockaways on any May-Oct weekend day with beach weather. But honestly, if it weren’t for COVID I’d have been just as happy taking the A train.

It's been a while since I took the A to Rockaway but it was pretty awful.

Hijack (and I am showing my age here), but I just don't "get" the Rockaways. I'm happy about the Ramones song, but there are so many other better/less rocky beaches in the area.

Great Surfing, has always been a cool/interesting Rockaway crowd, even before it sort of went mainstream. And you can take the A train there.... Very easy/quick to get to, especially if you live in Brooklyn.

As someone who surfed there quite a bit, there was quite a special sort of culture/ camaraderie among the people that would take the A train out and surf throughout the year. I've been surfing there since the '80s. I'm old.

@frontporch Don't get me wrong, when I had the time. I also loved surfing at Gilgos!

When I did the buy/lease/rent calculation a while ago, below 3 uses/month it was borderline in favor of renting a car for the weekend to get out of town. I have friends w/ a second home in CT, and they don't own a car -- they have a standing rental arrangement for every weekend, which they cancel on an as needed basis.

Because my miles/trip was fairly high, and I liked the 24/7 of garages (because I would come back very late at night to avoid traffic), the decision was to buy rather than lease/rent.

As 'nada says, try it out and see if it works for you.

Re owning a car, we have two kids and two car seats. The car seats were the big issue... a hassle to lug around and install as needed. Would be cheaper/easier getting an Uber or renting a car for whatever we do.

>> there are so many other better/less rocky beaches in the area

Well, a top attraction for me is that it only takes 40 minutes to get there in the morning and worst-case on the way back is 60 minutes on a very pleasant Ocean Parkway that avoids traffic. I’m far from an expert on the Rockaways, but the quality of sand / feel / etc. depends a lot on the precise location. E.g., Riis’s sand has lots of shells while the surfing areas in the 60’s and 90’s are soft, double dunes, etc. Your beloved Long Beach used to be my go-to from my last apt, because getting to Penn Station for the express train was so easy, but now it isn’t anymore. I have found the Rockaways to have just as nice beaches in at least some places along it’s 10 miles.

Total rental inventory according to SE was 11.5K across Nov 2021. For comparison, it was 41K in Oct 2020 when I was looking. And 14.9K/17.4K/18.4K/21.9K in Nov 2019/2018/2017/2016. Nuts…

https://streeteasy.com/blog/data-dashboard/?agg=Total&metric=Inventory&type=Rentals&bedrooms=Any%20Bedrooms&property=Any%20Property%20Type&minDate=2012-01-01&maxDate=2021-12-31&area=Flatiron,Brooklyn%20Heights

And here’s some fun listing history from a building I was tracking here:

12/16/2021 Re-listed by Equity Residential $4,620
12/03/2021 Listed by Equity Residential $4,515
01/07/2021 Equity Residential Listing is no longer available on StreetEasy Last priced at $2,675 $2,675
10/07/2020 Previously Listed by Equity Residential $3,295
03/11/2020 Equity Residential Listing is no longer available on StreetEasy $3,765
03/10/2020 Previously Listed by Equity Residential $3,765
04/04/2019 Equity Residential Listing is no longer available on StreetEasy Last priced at $3,585 $3,585
03/05/2019 Previously Listed by Equity Residential $3,625
03/24/2017 Equity Residential Listing is no longer available on StreetEasy Last priced at $3,645 $3,645
02/24/2017 Previously Listed by Equity Residential $3,955
03/07/2015 Equity Residential Listing is no longer available on StreetEasy $3,850
01/14/2015 Previously Listed by Equity Residential $3,850

https://streeteasy.com/building/prism-at-park-ave-south/16b

What a wild ride! We've come a long, unbelievable way from threads guessing when we would see 6 month concessions.

So going by that listing and general data, rental prices seem to have fully recovered. Next is prices going up another 5 percent in the next 6 months. And the price gloom bears have to remain angry till the next dip.

Yeah, that was a fun thread:

https://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/46029-expect-4-5mo-free-come-winter

What do you think is going on? On the face of it, you would think that Manhattan is still at a net outflow relative to 2019. One could say the WFH-forever situation has created extra demand for space, but why would that show up to strongly in (say) studios?

This lack of inventory seems specific to the rental market but not the sales market. Everywhere else, the sales market became tight and prices shot up. In Manhattan, prices stayed tame but it kinda seems like everybody found religion w.r.t. renting all at once. Perhaps it’s temporary, as people return to a rental while they plot their next move to buy something.

As an anecdote, ~150 unit condo building went across all of November and half of December without a single rental listing. One finally showed up last week. Nice apt, as a new sale it sold for less than 1/3rd (~30%) of what my apt sold for. Asking rent is only 25% less than what I’m paying going into my second year.