The Rents, They Are A-Droppin' - Redux

Thanks for posting an article from another source, on your own special personal topic just for you.

Good job

Huh?

uwcider...what are you saying??

So, are we saying that the observer is correct?

uwcider is doing what lot's of people on the internet do when they don't like a poster's opinion: They pretend he's the only one who feels that way or has noticed a certain trend. He's saying that faustus is the only person who has noticed - or cares - that's rents are declining. And if you tell him that prices for SALES are declining, he'll really explode. He'll probably claim that faustus lives in his mother's basement/is gay/has small genitalia etc.

uwcider - were you the sort of kid who closed your eyes so the other kids couldn't see you when things didn't go your way? Rents are declining. Prices are declining. The bubble is deflating. Deal with it.

Anecdotally, I'm seeing a return to rents of 3 years ago in a lot of the mid-level manhattan buildings (glenwood, rockrose, type stuff). In that span, they raised rents up like 15%, and now the prices look like they did in 2005, maybe a few points higher. So, we're talking definitely lower than last year, and in real terms, even lower than 2005-6 (and possibly before).

nyc10022 - I agree completely - in Chelsea doorman buildings in the 2 bedroom range that has definitely been the trend I am seeing - in my case; a return to the levels of Dec 2005, I'm seeing a 2 bedroom of the exact floorplan on a higher floor in one building now asking 5700 when they were asking 5650 for same apartment on lower floor in Dec 2005.

Totally on chelsea. And, I COMPLETELY forgot....

At least one of the buildings I looked at was offering a free month even at the 2005 rents. I know that FiDi buildings have been giving away the store - NYTimes said some did 2 months free + no broker + no security deposit - but there is definite glut downtown. But now its surprising me to see the free months uptown.... I haven't seen that in years...

Two questions:

1) Those who are seeing rents drop - is that evident in asking prices, or through negotiations of prices, or concessions, or combination of all?

2) Has anyone seen the trends with rents in OgdenCap buildings?

Thanks.

Anecdotally, I have also been seeing the softness in the rental market. But I have to admit that looking at actual listings (at least in doorman buildings) the evidence is pretty mixed.

When you see that condo owners are paying the brokerage fee, then you'll know that there is softness in the market. Not until then.

> 1) Those who are seeing rents drop - is that evident in asking prices, or through negotiations of
> prices, or concessions, or combination of all?

I've seen askings in a number of mid-level buildings (rockrose, glenwood, etc.) going back to 2005 level prices. We're talking what is listed on their sites.

I'm also seeing new condoswith crazy inventory coming online all at once (20 pine, etc.) all showing up as rentals, and tons showing $500 price reductions on streeteasy. $2500 for a 700 sq. foot studio, you're talking about a 25x ration versus what they seem to have paid...

I lived in a Rockrose building (Midwest Court) from 9/2003 to 8/2004. The apartment i lived in was $3170 with one month free. The next year, they raised it to $3325, and no more one month free (I moved out). No idea where the price went after that. The same apartment is now listed at $4300. I think there were some renovations in the building in the intervening years, but still, that's quite a hike in the last 3-5 years. Doesn't look like 2005 price to me.

Rockrose isn't dropping rents in the W. Village. At least one building is enjoying a 3% rent hike, albeit negotiable down to 2%.

(That said, had you taken a two-year lease last year, you'd have locked in at a higher increase, so the rate of increase is declining.)

Not sure if you guys saw this, but the Federal reserve apparently reported a 2-4% decline in rents in Manhattan. I'm not sure why the Fed is counting, but apparently they are...

http://www.observer.com/2008/real-estate/looks-familiar

"Average Manhattan apartment asking rents declined 2 to 4 percent in July and August compared to the same months last year (more on falling rents here). And: "The rental vacancy rate, though still below 2 percent, is reported to have climbed noticeably over the past year." "

As for the rockrose stuff, I only saw stuff more uptown.

Here is another example...
www.cccnyc.com

From what I remember, 1 bedrooms went up to $3600 from $3100 or so, and that is where they seem to sit now...

I just rented a one bedroom (non-doorman bldg) for $2450. A friend just rented the same apt. 2 floors below me for $2300.

I don't understand the chronology. Are you saying rent went up or down? Or did you guys rent at the same time?

newbuyer99 - I just got my lease renewal from OgdenCap and it is trying to implement a 3.7% rent increase. Although there are no availabilities in my line on its website right now, it looks like they are trying to charge even more for comparable apartments in my building, which is odd because I have lived here for two years and it extracted a decent increase from me last time around. This time I plan to negotiate though, as the elevator in the building is constantly breaking down and the floor I live on had major water problems for much of the year.

jasper - definitely negotiate. We did last year, and got them down. There may be no availabilities in your line, but their total availabilities on the website is higher than I've ever seen it, and I'm sure they don't want another empty apartment. Obviously also depends on how credible your threat to leave is.