As I imagine I am not the only one out there who expects sales inventory to spike over the next 2 months now that summer is over I am posting some of the listing numbers according to StreetEasy. My Labor Day contribution to all who partake in these discussions. And the only labor I expect to do today. Inventory increased from the start of the year and peaked around Memorial Day. The numbers have... [more]
As I imagine I am not the only one out there who expects sales inventory to spike over the next 2 months now that summer is over
I am posting some of the listing numbers according to StreetEasy.
My Labor Day contribution to all who partake in these discussions.
And the only labor I expect to do today.
Inventory increased from the start of the year and peaked
around Memorial Day. The numbers have been falling since then.
Let's see where they go from here.
As of Monday, September 1, 2008:
All apartments, must have address, excluding listings in contract:
NYC - 9,941
Manhattan - 6,945
Brooklyn - 2,287
Queens - 406
Bronx - 255
Staten Island - 48
2+ bedroom apartments, must have address,
excluding listings in contract:
NYC - 5,391
Manhattan - 3,633
Brooklyn - 1,323
Queens - 233
Bronx - 156
Staten Island - 46
2+ bedroom apartments up to 1.5 million, must have address,
excluding listings in contract:
NYC - 2,839
Manhattan - 1,230
Upper Manhattan - 432
Downtown - 224
Upper East Side - 202
Midtown - 194
Upper West Side - 175
Roosevelt Island - 1
Brooklyn - 1,189
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Response by happyrenter
about 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008
Does anyone know the last time there were 9,000 active sales listings in Manhattan?
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Response by bardamu
about 17 years ago
Posts: 113
Member since: Apr 2008
According to Miller Samuel, hasn't happened this century.
Inventory has declined somewhat from its peak, which was approximately 9,300 two weeks ago. Inventory is now down to 9,100.
Given the season I am not altogether surprised. I expect it will stay flat or even decline slightly over the next few weeks, but will probably pick up mid-January.
Most of my "streeteasy updates" are listings being taken off the market. So at least for my segment, I agree with bardamu - the decrease is not driven by closings.
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Response by mbz
about 17 years ago
Posts: 238
Member since: Feb 2008
Playing these listing games is proof to me that owners still have no idea what is going on. This time next year they'll realize that buyers are specifically searching only for apartments that have been on the market for a long time and won't dare take a listing off the market. Until then, they have a few more months of pretending illiquidity = value. Ha.
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Response by joedavis
about 17 years ago
Posts: 703
Member since: Aug 2007
recent trends continue down -- almost back to 9000 now
yes it's the season.....
new listings fuel the decline
contracts signed are steady at a low number (woe besets brokers)
Incidentally every broker I have talked to recently is either in denial or expects a Mar/April bottom when buyers will emerge in droves
Hope springs eternal.....lol
let us see...
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Response by tenemental
about 17 years ago
Posts: 1282
Member since: Sep 2007
"Incidentally every broker I have talked to recently is either in denial or expects a Mar/April bottom when buyers will emerge in droves"
This probably goes well beyond the usual broker BS into some heavy psychology. At this point, many of the brokers saying that are thinking "...and if they don't, I need a new career."
This chart is an old favorite. For anyone wondering about the seaonality of inventory numbers, it shows inventory going down this time of year 5 of the last 7 years, usually by more than just 200 units. In 2005 it ticket up every so slightly; in 2001 it rose more, but we know the sad reason for that.
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Response by newbuyer99
about 17 years ago
Posts: 1231
Member since: Jul 2008
Not only are there few/no new listings, but tons of listings are being "temporarily taken off the market". I presume they no longer show up in inventory. Assuming all/most are relisted in January, should be interesting...
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Response by streakeasy
about 17 years ago
Posts: 323
Member since: Jul 2008
just wait until all the severance packages run out and the real layoffs begin. inventory will skyrocket with owners trying to unload before being dragged into a foreclosure situation.
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Response by joedavis
about 17 years ago
Posts: 703
Member since: Aug 2007
inventory almost 8900 now -- mid-oct level
"many are off-market"
the crash is in new listings
contracts signed stable at a low 10
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Response by jake
about 17 years ago
Posts: 277
Member since: Jan 2007
That didn't take long. After dropping steadily throughout the holidays, the latest Manhattan inventory number is back above 9,000 - 9,138 this morning. And I have noticed a number of listings being temporarily taken off the market. UES shows 104 price drops in excess of 5% in the last 7 days.
And oh my!!!!! Back to future. 2006 prices on the new ask. And the 6th floor offered almost $3mm higher???
Now at 9,482, or 600 more than it was 3 weeks ago.
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Response by jake
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 277
Member since: Jan 2007
WOW! According to UrbanDigs inventory just crossed over 10,500. We were just 7,000 at labor day so inventories in Manhattan are officially up 50%. 50%!!!!
This is really stunning. The tide is going fout ast and we are learning that more and more of our neighbors were swimming naked. Price wars are breaking out to the downside. And I have seen some pretty breath taking drops in rental prices too. You know who you are 995 fifth, 170 east end, 30 east 85th and 1111 park among others . Are you kidding me 1111? Buy for $3.5mm a place that rents for $10,000 a month, maybe? that dog don't hunt.
In the last 30 days, new listings were 2,051 and contracts signed were 451. New Listings out pace contract signings by a ratio of more than 4 to 1!
There were 891 price cuts in the last 30 days. Twice as many price cuts as contracts signed.
Stick a fork in this market because it's DONE!
MANHATTAN REAL ESTATE DATA
1-day 7-day 30-day
New Listings 291 805 2,081
Price Cuts 5 39 897
Contracts Signed 33 162 451
Total Inventory 10,529 10,119 10,078
NYC Real Estate Data From
Thanks Urban Digs
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Response by Topper
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1335
Member since: May 2008
Seems to me that would suggest about two-years worth of inventory at the current sales pace. (And I assume that not all contracts go to close.)
Does anyone know the last time there were 9,000 active sales listings in Manhattan?
According to Miller Samuel, hasn't happened this century.
http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168397658DtFJU&Record=9
thanks bardamu. helpful.
Inventory has declined somewhat from its peak, which was approximately 9,300 two weeks ago. Inventory is now down to 9,100.
Given the season I am not altogether surprised. I expect it will stay flat or even decline slightly over the next few weeks, but will probably pick up mid-January.
What's the url for the UD inventory widget again?
www.urbandigs.com
It's on the right side of the page.
Most of my "streeteasy updates" are listings being taken off the market. So at least for my segment, I agree with bardamu - the decrease is not driven by closings.
Playing these listing games is proof to me that owners still have no idea what is going on. This time next year they'll realize that buyers are specifically searching only for apartments that have been on the market for a long time and won't dare take a listing off the market. Until then, they have a few more months of pretending illiquidity = value. Ha.
recent trends continue down -- almost back to 9000 now
yes it's the season.....
new listings fuel the decline
contracts signed are steady at a low number (woe besets brokers)
Incidentally every broker I have talked to recently is either in denial or expects a Mar/April bottom when buyers will emerge in droves
Hope springs eternal.....lol
let us see...
"Incidentally every broker I have talked to recently is either in denial or expects a Mar/April bottom when buyers will emerge in droves"
This probably goes well beyond the usual broker BS into some heavy psychology. At this point, many of the brokers saying that are thinking "...and if they don't, I need a new career."
http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1204831603HmXFR&Record=3
This chart is an old favorite. For anyone wondering about the seaonality of inventory numbers, it shows inventory going down this time of year 5 of the last 7 years, usually by more than just 200 units. In 2005 it ticket up every so slightly; in 2001 it rose more, but we know the sad reason for that.
Not only are there few/no new listings, but tons of listings are being "temporarily taken off the market". I presume they no longer show up in inventory. Assuming all/most are relisted in January, should be interesting...
just wait until all the severance packages run out and the real layoffs begin. inventory will skyrocket with owners trying to unload before being dragged into a foreclosure situation.
inventory almost 8900 now -- mid-oct level
"many are off-market"
the crash is in new listings
contracts signed stable at a low 10
That didn't take long. After dropping steadily throughout the holidays, the latest Manhattan inventory number is back above 9,000 - 9,138 this morning. And I have noticed a number of listings being temporarily taken off the market. UES shows 104 price drops in excess of 5% in the last 7 days.
And oh my!!!!! Back to future. 2006 prices on the new ask. And the 6th floor offered almost $3mm higher???
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/252732-coop-1133-fifth-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york
Now at 9,482, or 600 more than it was 3 weeks ago.
WOW! According to UrbanDigs inventory just crossed over 10,500. We were just 7,000 at labor day so inventories in Manhattan are officially up 50%. 50%!!!!
This is really stunning. The tide is going fout ast and we are learning that more and more of our neighbors were swimming naked. Price wars are breaking out to the downside. And I have seen some pretty breath taking drops in rental prices too. You know who you are 995 fifth, 170 east end, 30 east 85th and 1111 park among others . Are you kidding me 1111? Buy for $3.5mm a place that rents for $10,000 a month, maybe? that dog don't hunt.
In the last 30 days, new listings were 2,051 and contracts signed were 451. New Listings out pace contract signings by a ratio of more than 4 to 1!
There were 891 price cuts in the last 30 days. Twice as many price cuts as contracts signed.
Stick a fork in this market because it's DONE!
MANHATTAN REAL ESTATE DATA
1-day 7-day 30-day
New Listings 291 805 2,081
Price Cuts 5 39 897
Contracts Signed 33 162 451
Total Inventory 10,529 10,119 10,078
NYC Real Estate Data From
Thanks Urban Digs
Seems to me that would suggest about two-years worth of inventory at the current sales pace. (And I assume that not all contracts go to close.)
Sounds pretty bearish to me.
you'd think we were in a recession or something