Stocks drop; AIG drops; How come no real estate drops

I know - real estate prices should drop instantaneously. given they didnt, it's clear they never will.

Cartman: What's the ticker symbol for "pre-war classic seven in the PS87 catchment with renovated kitchen and baths"?

Good one West81st!

I agree...everyone says the prices are going to drop 10, 20 30%...yet nothing happens. Yes a $3m apartment drops $30k wow I'm getting out my checkbook.

right, julia - buy buy buy before you are priced out FOREVER

West81st - good one :-) if I knew, I'd soooo short it ..

I've been tracking the following and here are some price drops that are trickling in:

Where: All Upper East Side
type: any
price: $400k-$500k
price change: In the last 2 days by Any amount
bedrooms: +1
bathrooms: any
listing status: exclude listings already in contract

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/320568-coop-330-east-70th-street-lenox-hill-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/246072-coop-505-east-79th-street-yorkville-new-york

Saw the one on 505 East 79th Street. I was the last person there at the open house on Sunday. Saw that only 2 people signed in that day. Two brokers from Citi-Habit were there trying to sell the unit to me and my wife. We saw better for what was then $519,800. The place needed everything renovated (kitchen/bathroom/closets). No real view, even though it was on a high floor. Now it has a $30,000 price drop. Will prolly talk with the broker if it's down to $400k. I know. Some may say I am dreaming, but I've been to open houses for the last three weekends, and more times then not, I feel like I've been the only one to view the apartment, and I've been hinting to them that I rather wait till it's down to 400k or less.

"I would have thought there'd be some serious real estate drops, but I can't find anything."

You are expecting the numbers to decline within hours? You think Lehman employees managed to sell their apartments and close in a day?

July/August median/mean in Manhattan twere down 6/7% over previous quarter. And, there have been tons of double digits cuts on apartments going back months.

Now that we have the current crisis, figure the transactions being negotiated now will take a couple months to close...

Really curious to see what the September and beyond numbers will look like.

But, Q4 for sure will be a messy one...

Prices have dropped 7% in Manhattan QoQ, per case shiller.

As noted by others, there is no "exchange" that provides instant price transparency for real estate. You'll just have to wait until this month's numbers are reported some weeks/months down the road. But it's pretty clear what the trend is, and the impact of lay-offs and non-bonuses hasn't even been felt yet.

But please, if you are bullish, by all means buy! The only way the smart money can make any money is if there is some - how shall we say? - not so-smart-money out there...

Is Case-Schiller Manhattan specific? I thought it was New York-wide, plus parts of NJ and Connecticut.

It will definitely drop tomorrow.

lmao, eric_cartman, good one!

haven't you guys figured this out yet already?

Manhattan real estate never drops kiddos. no matter what.

nothing to see here. move on.

you know, not all of us appreciate your stupid sarcasm Mafia and others.

Some of us are looking for advice and then we have to read your smart ass mouthes.

duh... hit the "igonore this person" button?????

> Prices have dropped 7% in Manhattan QoQ, per case shiller.

Case Schiller is entire metro area, without condos/co-ops. So really no Manhattan.

But the Manhattan transaction numbers are down 6% mean and 7% median QoQ.

So, same point...

This is like saying the CDOs are not dropping because they were not heavily traded. Once one of the holder had to dump, u saw the prices plummet for everyone

If a condo dev defaults in manhattan, u will see the affect

good point...

Where are you getting your data, NYC? For general Manhattan co-op/condo figures I always use Miller Samuel. Is there another source?

Also, are those figures Quarter over Quarter or those two months versus the previous two months? You have to compare the July/August drop in '08 to July/August activity in other years to get a true sense of whether the market truly 'dropped' in that time period. Summer traditionally sees the fewest sales of the year - and quite possibly the lowest prices, too (though the price differential is purely conjecture)

nyc10022, there are at least 2,543 more threads on this site. You should post the 6-7% numbers on each one don't you think?

Quarter over Quarter (well, those two months average over previous quarter). NY Times last sunday, link was posted here on that day.

Yeah, I'm not sure why you think slower sales would lead to lower prices. And keep in mind there was a HUGE slowdown in sales in Q2...

Correlation between fewer sales and lower prices is that there are simply fewer people in NYC looking to buy during that time of year. Sellers know this, and those who can afford to time things wait till Spring or Fall to sell property. You have to imagine that a significant chunk of those who do sell in July/August are doing so because they don't have the luxury of time and NEED to sell during those months when fewer buyers are in town looking. Greater desperation on the part of the sellers coupled with fewer buyers equals appreciably lower prices.

Perhaps it just me but I have stumbled across nicer apts. in better buildings & address for an equivalent price I sold mine during the 3Q, 2006. My areas of interest are the Upper East & West side.

When you say prices haven't dropped, I'm assuming you're referring to asking prices basically stamped by some realtor or better said, marketing agent that doesn't have the buyers interest in mind. At this time, I would offer 15%-20% below asking as see where the seller counters. One needs to be patient with this process but it does work if one keeps at it. Remember, an asking price is the maximum one is expected to pay and I have never paid anything remotely close to that level and that includes the mighty Manhattan.

You may also wait so see the results of the 2009 spring selling season. If it is a bust, that will be the second which typically can soften prices in a hurry. We shall see.

Patience grasshopper. Patience.

wait.....for......it......

wwwwwwaaaaaaiiiiitttttt......

serge07, I consider seller's asking prices these days "telephone numbers". They are basically generated by the same random process. And have the same meaning to me.

There were 8 updates for my saved search today - all price decreases.

"per case shiller"

that index does not include manhattan, which is 97% condos and co-ops.

Inventory is rising - total listings number is falling, but listings in contract is rising, meaning that nothing is entering contract. And who on Wall Street - even if they still have a job - would invest in real estate today? They might not have a job tomorrow.

I wouldn't touch Manhattan real estate for a long time to come.