capitulation

Why do you only consider 2 extremes? I don't think 900k is flying out. I also don't think RE will get wiped out. There is a middle ground of possibilities...

Yes, yes, I'm feeding a troll. I feel dirty already.

Tech-guy - I agree with you and don't feel bad about feeding the troll, at least you were funny.

tech, I just saw 3 $750K apt. being swiped by buyers on the first week on the market, right from under me. $2M is not an extreme, just something I don't look into. I just need a place and found out that in the neighborhoods with stable prices (I mean that nothing got tripled OR halved), a decent small 2-bd under $900K gets bought before I can lowball anybody.

Link these 3 apartments?

As for the 2 extremes, I didn't mean $2M in prices. I meant "flying out" vs. "wiped out".

tech, why is the interrogatory tone? It is OK only for the negative posters to vent? How does it offend you that I decided to buy?
The places I was interested on were FSBOs, so no link for you. One was with a broker but still no link for you.

"I'm buying."

Keep us posted, steveF.

To all these teacup revolutionaries: so long. This is getting to be no fun at all.

I don't see whats so interrogatory about asking for a link to 3 apartments. The community here could comment as to why they were flying out - maybe the ask was well below comps. Your response proves that you're lying though. FSBO, no webpage? No NY Times listing? No Craigslist? How did you discover these apartments - smoke signals?

For the record, as others will attest, I also criticize negative posts that seem grossly untrue. I'm a recent buyer, so you can't pull the "bulls vs. bears" card against me.

We're seriously thinking of entering a contract too (if all goes well) and probably there won't be that much negotiation. It might sound crazy cuz we've been trying to hold out for a year or so now but it seems like there is this place that we can afford which is meeting all our criteria and could be a keeper for more than 5 years. We would like the prices to go down (who doesn't?) or maybe even wait until the first quarter of the year when this whole thing hits the fan, but we're getting a little anxious right now. Let's see how things turn out before the end of the year for us.

I think you have the economic concept of capitulation backwards. Capitulation happens in a market when all the players in that market decide to sell because they feel things are just headed south. That leaves as owners only people not active in the market--in this case people who are not considering selling their homes. Your use of capitulation for buyers is completely wrong. You're just deciding to buy, which is fine but is not capitulation.

I'm not a big fan of blanket statements but here goes - you have to be an idiot to buy an apartment right now, I don't care what your financial situation is or how much you "want" to own - we're entering the worst recession in at least 20 years and more likely 80 years. The Manhattan real estate market, which probably takes 3-5 years to bottom in a major recession, has been declining for only 6-9 months.

> anything under $900K is flying out.

How on earth is that capitulation? That is the OPPOSITE of capitulation.

When the stock market went down, some folks bought in some more because of the "opportunity". Then it went down some more, and some folks bought. Then it went down more, and the buyers shriveled up. When there were no more folks left to buy on the bottom, THAT is capitulation.

We haven't gotten anywhere near that yet. If people are buying on the dip, and we're still going down, that means we have a lot more to go.

The only truly appropriate buyers now are people moving to a new area or people upgrading because they need to do so for family reasons.

"The only truly appropriate buyers now are people moving to a new area or people upgrading because they need to do so for family reasons."

Which is how it should be!

It's call pent up demand, people who waited and were prudent, have good steady jobs, big down payments, and can afford it might jump in now but once the initial pool of buyers like this is exhausted the bottom drops out. How you guys noticed the job loses keep accelerating UBS announced another round of mass layoffs....how about more massive Wall Street layoffs?

Wall Street Banks Bracing For a Big Round of Layoffs
Topics:Banking
Sectors:Financial Services | Banks
Companies:JPMorgan Chase and Co | Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc | Morgan Stanley | Goldman Sachs Group Inc | Bank of America Corp | Merrill Lynch & Co Inc
By Charlie Gasparino, On-Air Editor | 04 Nov 2008 | 02:02 PM ET
Text Size

The big broker-banks are preparing to lay off as much as 15 percent of their workforce as the economic slowdown continues to pound Wall Street, CNBC has learned.
CNBC.com

As the remaining investment banking companies look to clean up the damage from the credit crisis, thousands of employees will pay the price through pink slips that could come before the end of the year, senior sources on Wall Street said.

How it should be TODAY, yes. But in other economies it is sensible to upgrade or downgrade based on other lifestyle preferences or lifestage preferences.

Nay none of these matters right.....? Manhattan is a magical city....wait just don't have TOTO pull back the curtain.....anybody watch the Wizard of OZ....this is going to be a massise long protracted recession for years to come.

McHale, could you clean up your grammar and sentence structure and try reposting? There are some statements in your post that just simply don't jibe, but if you have a valid message, we'd like to hear it.

"It's call pent up demand, people who waited and were prudent, have good steady jobs, big down payments, and can afford it might jump in now but once the initial pool of buyers like this is exhausted the bottom drops out."

Agreed. I would also go so far as to say that the "pent-up demand" is a phantom phenomenon as potential buyers realize that buying now in NYC right now is not a compelling financial decision. Many would-be buyers will elect to stay on the sidelines for longer and avoid the hefty cost of ownership as (i) rents continue to decline and (ii) the recovery of the NYC real estate market appears so far off in the future.

What created the bubble were fundamental, structural changes in the NY economy - Wall Street success, leverage/credit and foreign demand. The NYC real estate market will need another structural blood infusion *merely to hold prices at 2004-2005 levels*. No such structural change is coming.

Some of the biggest hits will come at Merrill Lynch [MER 19.99 1.05 (+5.54%) ], where 10,000 employees could be jettisoned as a result of the merger with Bank of America [BAC 24.53 0.92 (+3.9%) ].

Barclay's [BCS 12.68 1.17 (+10.17%) ] purchase of Lehman Brothers' [LEHMQ 0.064 --- UNCH (0) ] investment banking unit also will mean layoffs, while lack of merger and acquisitions and initial public offerings is hitting Morgan Stanley [MS 18.90 0.90 (+5%) ] hard. Morgan could lay off 15 percent of its work force.

Even the more stable companies, including Goldman Sachs [GS 95.00 5.91 (+6.63%) ] and JPMorgan Chase [JPM 42.17 1.44 (+3.53%) ] will get hit. Goldman is looking at at least 10 percent and maybe 15 percent of its workforce, with similar numbers likely at JPMorgan.
© 2008 CNBC.com

Thanks for including the copyright notice McFly

It's call pent up demand, people who waited and were prudent, have good steady jobs, big down payments, and can afford to buy right now might jump in but once the initial pool of buyers like this is exhausted the bottom drops out. How you guys noticed the job loses keep accelerating UBS announced another round of mass layoffs....how about more massive Wall Street layoffs?

What I'm trying to say is the Wall Street game is over, last one out turn off the lights! They scammed the World!
Jim Cramer nicely sums it up:
I am an inherent optimist about Wall Street. Every time I’ve seen one business go down, there was always a replacement business right behind it. The Street was always like a four-engine plane: It could handle one, even two engines going down, and keep flying. Now, though, it feels like all the engines—investment banking, bonds, equities, and mergers and acquisitions—have shut down at once. Try as I might to see where new business can come from, I don’t see it coming anytime soon. That’s bad news for the banks and their shareholders. It’s bad news for the 200,000 or so people who work on the Street and the estimated 850,000 who buy and sell securities nationwide. And it’s bad news for the New York co-op owners, real-estate brokers, and others who benefit from Wall Street largesse.

now McHale, I already told you that your grammar and sentence structure, on EXACTLY THE SAME POST, were flawed.

I love you :)

"A bear market is a great way to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient."
-Warren Buffett

Hahaha, great quote even if it were fake.