Approaching 10,000 Manhattan Listings!

9,134 if you limit the search to listings with an address.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sales/manhattan/status%3Aopen%7Chas_address%3A1

Either approach is equally valid (or invalid), but I think it's important to be consisent.

More generally, stevejhx, don't you think you're rubbing it in a bit? Even as a fellow vindicated renter, I think your triumphalism is a little over-the-top.

I rent and own, W81. We need to keep abreast of market developments.

Either approach is valid - the one I use is the one that streeteasy uses in its reports, but it does include some duplicates, and both annoyingly include things in the Bronx which hasn't been part of Manhattan since 1898, but listing figures are never perfect.

I agree with West81st. We get it, the economy is bad and real estate is on shaky ground at best.

And who is the "we" you keep referring to stevehjx? Sounds like you have a bunker full of angry people with you constantly combing the papers for bad news. And for the record, we owned until this summer and now rent, but were forced to sell for space reasons.

Thanks for your two cents, starfish!

steve is a sad loser, why do people still engage him?

"I rent and own, W81."

No you do not steve. You rent. You sold your place in FI didn't you?

JM: Doesn't really matter. In the context of a discussion about Manhattan listings, he's a renter; arguably the mother of all renters.

"the mother of all renters"

I like that W81, steve IS the mother of all renters.

Birthing was hard.

steve...do you have a number you can tape to the outside of your rental for when you drop dead in it? just so your neighbors know who to call?

Ignoring comment by eah.

JM - overnight LIBOR up to 0.8% last night.

eah...stevejhx has to be working for streeteasy...if he is not, than the man is just not right in the head. He is always on these boards proclaiming doom and gloom...again, something is not right. You could wake up @ 3am, and had inadvertently left your computer on to streeteasy and you would be waking up to a stevejhx latest post.... I really think it went like this...Stevejhx's brother-in-law works for streeteasy, sees a job posting for a Message Board Shill, he knows what a pain in the as- his brother in law is, so he gives him a call. Stevejhx accepts a position as Streeteasy Message Board Shill and Antagonist....:)

never considered that angle, SteveF. i do agree, tohugh, his posting pattern is just not right. he has to be either multiple people or the saddest mother f#cker on the planet. but, more to the point, he should leave the number he wants us to call...if he fails to post for a few hours then we'll know it's time.

Steve may repeat his point often enough, but I am sure that like me, many other readers of streeteasy have learned from his analysis. He suggests a way other than comps to asses value. I rather listen to Steve repeat himself than to read uninformative posts.

I agree with Sam. Steve is clearly over the top, repeats himself, goes nuts, is angry, etc. But at least he has a method behind his madness. Most people come on here and either say "the market will never decline because this is New York" or "The market is heading down the toilet and I know exactly when it will hit the bottom" and they have no analysis behind their rants. Steve may be nutty, but he has a point that you can either agree with or disagree with. Most of you just have opinions.

"clearly over the top"

POV.

"repeats himself"

When I get the same stupid answers back.

"goes nuts"

Nope.

"is angry"

Well therapized, thanks.

I notice that with all the anti-steve posts, noone said "incorrect".

;-)

I have to figure that "I told you so" never comes off particularly nicely...

I appreciate steve's posts, too. I mean, his interest in RE and in picking fights with other posters maybe a bit odd, but he never fails to post reasoned and fact-based analysis, whereas most of the ones who insult him have never even remotely tried to do that.

Sometimes I'm wrong, and when I am I clearly say, "My Bad."

But no one has ever posted a theory or data or anything to controvert the myriad things I've posted; multiple ways of looking at the same information. When they do, I'll read it, and if I'm wrong, I'll say "My Bad."

Marble Hill which appears to be the Bronx is actually part of the borough of Manhattan. If this is the area Steve refers to as being the Bronx, we've been over this before--it isn't. It is Manhattan. Historically, the Harlem River cut north and south of Marble Hill rendering it an island which was deemed part of Manhattan. In 1914-ish the arm of the river around the north of Marble Hill was filled in making the area appear to have always been a contiguous part of the Bronx. It's status of belonging to Manhattan, however, never changed. Steve, it is not wrong to include all RE listings in Marble Hill as part of the Manhattan inventory. We've been over this before.

"I notice that with all the anti-steve posts, noone said "incorrect"."

The people who have proven him incorrect several times before are on his ignore list. Don't get me wrong, eah deserves to be ignored... but I prove him clearly wrong on many points in this long thread below, and his response is to say I'm the same person as LICC and pretend to ignore us both.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/6009-same-apartment-for-rent-and-for-sale

kyle, I know that, but they include listings on White Plains Road and in Parkchester and throughout the Bronx. I am aware of what is New York County.

The volume in Marble Hill is so insignificant that it has no noticeable impact on the overall figures for Manhattan.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/area/marble-hill-bronx

The larger issue is including listings that do not have an address, as many of these are not legitimate.

i probably do deserve to be ignored as i enjoy being obnoxious on an anon. board. but, on the other hand, no one has told me why they get such pleasure from a crashing economy or real estate market. this board at one time was a reasonable place to discuss all aspects of real estate - renovations, mortgages, specific buildings. now it is an orgy of "i told you so"...

i don't see what all the micro discussion is about. broadly speaking we all know the outcome: the rich will still be rich, the newly rich will get bumped down, the poor will get smashed and be poorer and the "middle class" will have a lot of making up of lost ground. so, who cares? we all know the category we fall in and it's not going to change much.

"The larger issue is including listings that do not have an address, as many of these are not legitimate."

That is closer to the number streeteasy uses in its market reports. We all recognize that listing data are not 100% accurate - off by a few score from time to time. As long as we consistently use the same information, the skew should remain the same.

"i probably do deserve to be ignored as i enjoy being obnoxious on an anon. board. but, on the other hand, no one has told me why they get such pleasure from a crashing economy or real estate market."

Its possible to dislike someone and still not wish them physical harm. I don't like steve either but I'm not going to start talking about his death as you have. Laugh at his stupid analysis (there's plenty of fodder there) but don't wish him physical harm.

I dont wish him harm. Quite the contrary. I wish to see him exit his apartment and have 3D relationships. He posts with a frequency that borders on bizarre if he is truly just one person. Call it morbid concern for a fellow human I don't know.

"i probably do deserve to be ignored as i enjoy being obnoxious on an anon. board. but, on the other hand, no one has told me why they get such pleasure from a crashing economy or real estate market. this board at one time was a reasonable place to discuss all aspects of real estate - renovations, mortgages, specific buildings. now it is an orgy of "i told you so"..."

Completely agreed (except about the ignore part - you post some good stuff). Let's hope this board returns to what it was when these shenanigans run their course.

"As long as we consistently use the same information, the skew should remain the same."

So why do you insist on not using the "must have address" button checked off, while everyone else here agrees that's the way to go? Some people here accuse you of fudging and cherrypicking, so why give them easy ammo on this one?

"while everyone else here agrees that's the way to go?"

Because that's the number that streeteasy uses, despite what "everybody else" might think.

"Some people here accuse you of fudging and cherrypicking, so why give them easy ammo on this one?"

Some people here accuse me of lots of things, and wish me dead. I don't care what they think. If I provide 20 examples, they want 40. If I provide 40, they want 80. If I provide 80, they want 160.

All the while providing none themselves.

Nor any economic theory to support their suppositions.

If I say something will happen on Monday and it happens on Tuesday, they'll claim I'm wrong. Even if they had said nothing at all would happen.

I've made my prediction on the Manhattan real estate market. Seems it's coming true. An extra 100 or so apartments for sale shouldn't matter. I've said as much many times before.

"Because that's the number that streeteasy uses, despite what "everybody else" might think."

Not good enough. SE has done exactly TWO of those reports and they're still very much a work in progress. Furthermore, you're discussing with people, not reports. Our definition, when discussing inventory, checks that button off. You can choose to ignore that and do your own thing, but it's not helpful to anybody.

"now it is an orgy of "i told you so"..."

As opposed to an orgy of "I'm a genius because I bought, you are a bitter renter"?

Perhaps you are forgetting some of the negatives that were present. There will always be asses an idiots, the only major difference is the tide of market sentiment has shifted.

> I've made my prediction on the Manhattan real estate market. Seems it's coming true.

The big turn, yes. If you're still saying 50% drop, then I think you've got some ways to go before you spike the ball on that one.

That being said, if you net in your stock predictions, you're actually breaking even these days..

;-)

"Not good enough."

"SE has done exactly TWO of those reports and they're still very much a work in progress."

And when they change, so will I.

"Furthermore, you're discussing with people, not reports."

I'm not so sure about that.

"Our definition, when discussing inventory, checks that button off."

It's never been my definition, so I don't know who "our" refers to.

"You can choose to ignore that and do your own thing, but it's not helpful to anybody."

It is to me.

steve doesn't post for everybody. He posts for himself. That's why no matter how many times people can prove him wrong, he'll still repost the same crap again and claim he's been proven right all along.

"I'm not so sure about that."

I assume you're trying to be humorous to avoid the point. Try harder. This is a forum, where people interact and are supposed to give and take information and opinion.

"It is to me."

So what value do you get out of posting here? Just curious.

"This is a forum, where people interact and are supposed to give and take information and opinion."

Yes - and your comment implies that only your opinion matters. There is relevance in taking both numbers, neither one is perfect.

In case you missed it, Steve was also "funny" on the other thread...

"dow 6500.... There is very little doubt now that that's where we're headed."
- Steve 4 days ago.

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."
- Steve today

Careful nyc10022 - with logic like that, there's only 1 possible conclusion for stevejhx... you're the same person as me and LICC!

What I said was, in the process of a panic: "However, there is nothing to stop the stock market from panicking its way all the way to the bottom."

And I meant it.

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."

And I didn't. I said that that's the direction we were headed. Just because we haven't got there yet doesn't mean we won't get there, nyc. That is your mistake. There are still very good technical reasons why we could reach that bottom. The game is not over.

You laughed when I said Dow 8,000, as well.

Oh well.

oh my lord.

Its President Steve Clinton, actually arguing over the definition of "is".

I'm sorry, but its just too comical.

"dow 6500.... There is very little doubt now that that's where we're headed."
- Steve 4 days ago.

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."
- Steve today

Oh my lord, nyc10022. You are as bad as the people who when I said "riddance," thought I meant "good riddance."

Here is from Oxford:

"to head: move in a specified direction: he was heading for the exit."

"He was heading for the exit." Did he exit?

Not necessarily. It indicates a direction. So stop. You are now proving to be moronic. If you were remotely familiar with language - if you were smarter than a 5th grader - you would also note that Aristotle has a long passage about the multiple meanings of "is."

You just don't know what you're talking about.

"I'm sorry, but its just too comical."

Oh: "IT'S" just too comical.

People post nastily on inet boards because they can hide in cyberspace. They would never say such things in person, unless they're mentally ill.

No one pays a fee to read the opinions posted here. Agree, disagree, but don't personally attack.

Dow may hit 6500 & it may not. Nobody knows. Please stop playing 'gotcha'.

> So stop. You are now proving to be moronic.

ROTFL.

Steve, Steve. You can repeat the words over and over again, but you were wrong here, just as you were wrong on the deductability of mortgage interest.

In plain english, if anyone took your advice, they lost money. You made AWESOMELY bad calls. Several. You have literally called the exact wrong direction three times.

You can pull out Bartlett's, and it won't change that.

> "He was heading for the exit." Did he exit?

Btw, if the guy was heading AWAY from the exit, you have to shut up and accept you botched this one.

Sad, Steve, really.

Ok, not that sad. Really just funny. Granted, its kind of an old story with you.

"I did not have sexual relations with that woman".

Maybe he was challenging "that". Or "woman".

Or maybe "I". I can mean, like, "I was heading".

"Yes - and your comment implies that only your opinion matters. There is relevance in taking both numbers, neither one is perfect."

No. Several others here have told you they use the definition I described. Urbandigs also uses it for the inventory widget on his site. That's my point - it's not "only my opinion." It's one shared by a lot of people on this board, and more important, those talking about inventory.

"Oh my lord, nyc10022. You are as bad as the people who when I said "riddance," thought I meant "good riddance.""

That was me. What's funny is that mere days later, you wrote about Wachovia job cuts: "Bye-bye New York jobs." Lovely stuff.

I used to respect Steve Clinton. I defended him a few times. I have to admit, those days are over. I guess once you find yourself on the other side of one of the "whack rants"...

And, bjw, absolutely on the inventory. No measure is perfect, but once the larger industry settles on a standard, go with it. Median manhattan price is also very imperfect, but its what we watch. Over time, the discrepancies even out. But for the inventory, I'm absolutely with UD.

Given how much the economy has tanked, it is amazing that Manhattan RE is holding up so well. Inventory is way up and there have been some price cuts, but it has yet again proven to be a strong asset in stormy times.

Yeah, not a great time to be a seller, but it's more of an "it's the economy, stupid" moment than anything else.

From Case-Shiller. Note that NY includes the entire NYC plus parts of NJ and Conn. Single family homes. NYC-Manhattan tends to be even stronger historically.

"Here's how prices in the 20 cities performed in the past year:
Phoenix, down 31.9%; Las Vegas, down 31.3%; Miami, down 28.4%; San Francisco, down 29.5%; Los Angeles, down 27.6%; San Diego, down 26.3%; Detroit, down 18.6%; Tampa, down 18.5%, Washington, down 17.2%; Minneapolis, down 14.4%; Chicago, down 10.1%; Seattle, down 9.8%; Atlanta, down 9.5%; Portland, down 8.6%; New York, down 7.3%; Cleveland, down 6.4%; Boston, down 5.7%; Denver, down 5.4%; Charlotte, down 3.5%; Dallas, down 2.7%."

"Bye-bye New York jobs"

I don't ever recall saying "bye-bye." Please cite the full quote with link. I did say - not with respect to Wachovia - that New York jobs were at risk. What I said with respect to Wachovia is that Wells Fargo was uninterested in Wachovia's (small) investment bank operations, and they would likely be lost.

nyc - you're lame on this. "heading for" does not mean "will arrive." Your ridicule is misplaced. You will have to ridicule the Oxford English Dictionary, whence the definition comes.

"Several others here have told you they use the definition I described. Urbandigs also uses it for the inventory widget on his site."

I see. The fact that streeteasy uses the other figure is irrelevant because it's a work-in-progress, but the fact that urbandigs uses the "has address" parameter makes it right.

Lame.

"That's my point - it's not "only my opinion." It's one shared by a lot of people on this board, and more important, those talking about inventory."

Good for them. I have said that either figure is fine, the actual figure is likely somewhere in between. It is irrelevant.

In another thread I made it clear that I did not PREDICT that we would reach there, but in a panic we were headed there. If you must know, the technical level that must be reached to forestall a complete collapse is 6800 on the Dow, not 6500. You are just an....

"just as you were wrong on the deductability of mortgage interest."

No. It is deductible up to mortgages of $1 million. I've never claimed otherwise.

"if anyone took your advice, they lost money."

On what? Real estate? China? Both were correct calls.

"I don't ever recall saying "bye-bye." Please cite the full quote with link. I did say - not with respect to Wachovia - that New York jobs were at risk. What I said with respect to Wachovia is that Wells Fargo was uninterested in Wachovia's (small) investment bank operations, and they would likely be lost."

Here y'are: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5326-bye-bye-wachovia

"Good for them. I have said that either figure is fine, the actual figure is likely somewhere in between. It is irrelevant."

Well, I won't belabor the point, since you're clearly stubborn on this. But it is telling that a bunch of people are discussing this measure one way and you steadfastly choose another, even though you yourself believe "either figure is fine."

You're right, I said it (though I didn't remember it).

And I meant it at the time - it fit right into the thread - it was the title of the thread - which I didn't start.

"But it is telling that a bunch of people are discussing this measure one way and you steadfastly choose another, even though you yourself believe "either figure is fine.""

Who cares what "a bunch of people say." A bunch of people said that Castro was dead in 1976. Guess what? He wasn't.

"In another thread I made it clear that I did not PREDICT that we would reach there, but in a panic we were headed there. If you must know, the technical level that must be reached to forestall a complete collapse is 6800 on the Dow, not 6500. You are just an...."

accurate SOB?

I've never seen someone backpedal so fast... your feet must be on fire. For the literate folks, you don't need to take my word for it, just take Steve Clinton's...

"dow 6500.... There is very little doubt now that that's where we're headed."
- Steve 7 days ago.

"Nor did I say that we would go to 6,500 on the Dow."
- Steve 4 days later

Keep digging Steve...