Even brokers now admitting 2005-2006 levels are the appropriate asking prices.
Started by Rhino86
over 17 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006
Discussion about
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12042008/realestate/riding_the_storm_142527.htm "We clearly think New York City real estate is going to drop 14 percent to 17 percent in the next 12 months," says Michael Moskowitz, president and underwriting manager for mortgage company Equity Now. "Right now we are basically in a situation where we have to go back in time," says Jacky Teplitzky, managing director at... [more]
http://www.nypost.com/seven/12042008/realestate/riding_the_storm_142527.htm
"We clearly think New York City real estate is going to drop 14 percent to 17 percent in the next 12 months," says Michael Moskowitz, president and underwriting manager for mortgage company Equity Now.
"Right now we are basically in a situation where we have to go back in time," says Jacky Teplitzky, managing director at Prudential Douglas Elliman. "You cannot price anything according to the last six months of 2008 - you can't price according to 2007! So how far do you have to go back? I'm optimistic we're somewhere between 2005 and 2006. But every single case has to be looked at differently."
"There are definitely buyers out there," says Pam Liebman, president and CEO of the Corcoran Group. "Our open-house traffic is people looking for real value." But Liebman adds that the market won't be the same in the future; it won't be as dependent on Wall Street. "The doctor," she says, "is the new investment banker!"
- The issue is, what does a doctor earn compares to a director/managing director level investment banking in the 2004-2007 time horizon.
- Anyone has a sense of appraisals and bank financing availability? - Where is the leading edge market for glass condo space in Manhattan?
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Response by kspeak
over 17 years ago
Posts: 813
Member since: Aug 2008
I agree with the idea of renting in Harlem prior to buying - this is probably our plan unless prices fall really quickly in 1H2009 (which I would not rule out). I don't see any reason prices would INCREASE during 2009 - they are far more likely to decrease.
I do see shells falling back to $500k or lower. When you start with a shell, the rennovation cost can EASILY be $1 million, and construction loans are difficult to get (although I do see the financing mark. I could see finished brownstones in completely mint condition coming down to about $1.5mm and brownstones in good condition that need a kitchen/bath refresh and central AC coming down to $1 million.
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Response by Rhino86
over 17 years ago
Posts: 4925
Member since: Sep 2006
Nyc10022....I think maybe real estate moves faster in the 'information age'...All cycles have been compressed... But not sure its any better than 2011 before it starts moving up. I mean that's the final answer isn't it...why consider buying before the first sequential up comp happens (again).
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Response by nyc10022
over 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
RE didn't move faster this time.
Fast info is one thing. But it doesn't create knowledge. It let the bubble grow bigger, if anything, with all the idiot "flippers".
But NYC took TWO YEARS to start going down after the crisis. Its actually trailing.
I agree with the idea of renting in Harlem prior to buying - this is probably our plan unless prices fall really quickly in 1H2009 (which I would not rule out). I don't see any reason prices would INCREASE during 2009 - they are far more likely to decrease.
I do see shells falling back to $500k or lower. When you start with a shell, the rennovation cost can EASILY be $1 million, and construction loans are difficult to get (although I do see the financing mark. I could see finished brownstones in completely mint condition coming down to about $1.5mm and brownstones in good condition that need a kitchen/bath refresh and central AC coming down to $1 million.
Nyc10022....I think maybe real estate moves faster in the 'information age'...All cycles have been compressed... But not sure its any better than 2011 before it starts moving up. I mean that's the final answer isn't it...why consider buying before the first sequential up comp happens (again).
RE didn't move faster this time.
Fast info is one thing. But it doesn't create knowledge. It let the bubble grow bigger, if anything, with all the idiot "flippers".
But NYC took TWO YEARS to start going down after the crisis. Its actually trailing.
We have YEARS to go...