Park Slope - Market Conditions?

The buzz word - NEGOTIABLE :)

Do you think that Park Slope could actually hold in there more than Manhattan or the opposite?

ie. if more people currently living in Manhattan have less income going forward they may move to Brooklyn pushing prices up in Park Slope, or if prices are falling in Manhattan those people that were considering Brooklyn may now stay in Manhattan pushing prices down in Park Slope?

Uhm, new developments near 4th Avenue are negotiable. That's all I know. I think buyers just disappeared this quarter in NYC. Period. Everybody is in the wait-and-see situation and no one is in dire need to sign contracts, so prices will have to come down. And even then, I don't know how many qualified buyers are left.

PS suffers, plain and simple.

Folks moved to Brooklyn as the "alternative" to expensive Manhattan. The "i like Brooklyn better" is for the most part sour grapes... the mass migration to brooklyn came because of pricing.

Prices in manhattan are now down 20% and falling fast. That rationalization is falling flat.

And, I'm sure some will claim "well, they didn't build much in park slope". But park slope is not an island. 4th avenue now has a condo glut. So does flatbush ave. You may not think these similar neighborhoods, but they will compete. When you can get new construction at half the price one stop away, its going to affect Park Slope.

The prices in PS are simply not sustainable. They required Wall Street incomes + folks forced out of a hot manhattan market. Those things are both gone.

I just checked pricing ($1m - $1.5m) in PS & BH for the first time in quite a while. What's going on out there? I saw pricing so high it would make prime UWS blush. These buildings on Flatbush, Columbia, 4th Ave with stupid layouts, no doorman, and way over-inflated square footages. I don't think I saw one listing in prime PS (above 7th Ave, Union to 9th St). Are all the listings in this prime area held by the local brokers w/o websites. It looks like Corcoran, Elliman, BHS haven't heard about the market softening.

The medians are actually higher than Manhattan, per the report that came out last month. The bubble has clearly popped - down 20% in Manhattan - Brooklyn might just be a hair behind.

I've been renting in Park Slope for about 2 years now. At one time, I considered buying a condo in one of the developments on 4th ave. Wildly overpriced. They're asking well over $700 psf. And that's taking their measurements at face value. They do seem to be negotiable, however. I went to look at one of the remaining units in the Crest in August. The Crest sales agent "recommended" that we (there was another couple looking at the apartment at the time) make an offer below the asking price. This was her recommendation in August...

Slope11217, what is the best way to find rentals in Park Slope?

I went through Corcoran about 2 years ago. I have to admit that the broker picked out an absolutely perfect apartment for my needs. I had never lived in Park Slope before, but he showed me a place that was perfect for my needs (based on price, size, proximity to a subway that would get me to work, etc). That said, paying a 15% commission is rough, and I'd avoid ever doing it again if possible. I used to think paying 1 month's rent as commission was excessive--15% is absurd. I know that there are a few no-fee rental websites (www.nofeerentalbyowner.com, for example. I've never used that site, so I can't vouch for it, but it has got to be worth a shot. There should be others as well.)

Anyone else have any comments on Park Slope? Anything at all about the area?

i have been looking for a while at the Brownstone/townhouse market in Park Slope. The sales prices have dipped but overall have stayed somewhat high. There seem to be a few very good deals for prime properties in the $2.0-2.3 moillion range. Some questionable listing at $2.5.

The taxes are significantly lower than Manhattan and the value seems to be there. I think that the high end PS brownstone market will soften but has a good chance to hold its value.

"Folks moved to Brooklyn as the "alternative" to expensive Manhattan. The "i like Brooklyn better" is for the most part sour grapes... the mass migration to brooklyn came because of pricing."

The last part of the sentence is partially true - it's attractive from a price standpoint - but the first part is Manhattan arrogance. There are plenty of people who prefer Brooklyn, which for some reason causes some people's heads to explode. People have different tastes and needs - get over it.

As for Park Slope, 4th Ave is somehow part of the neighborhood now? It's always been fringe at best. Prime Park Slope will probably do much better than the condo glut along that avenue. If you've ever walked down there and then down 5th and the rest of Park Slope, it's quite a contrast. Prime PS has a pretty clearly defined niche market, and I imagine it'll continue to draw those types in. I don't know many people living there right now, but I don't think it's an area filled with finance types. Will it suffer? I'd bet on it, but let's be careful with the numbers and designations that are being thrown about here.

I have been looking for a two bed in north slope since September. Sales stalled and people are either holding on to the price the asking price and not selling or dropping their prices and generally not selling. I think all but one of the dozen or so apartments I looked at back then are still on the market. There are also new properties coming to the market.

"The last part of the sentence is partially true - it's attractive from a price standpoint - but the first part is Manhattan arrogance. There are plenty of people who prefer Brooklyn, which for some reason causes some people's heads to explode. People have different tastes and needs - get over it."

I said specifically for the *mass* migration.

Yes, there are people who preferred it for sure absolutely. But the majority of the migration was for price factors, no matter how many people now explain "yes, its better, thats why I did it".

I can't tell you how many folks I know who changed their stories post-move to try to make themselves feel a little better about what they missed.

I think we're actually going to see some backlash in the next couple of years...

> As for Park Slope, 4th Ave is somehow part of the neighborhood now? It's always been fringe at best.

I addressed this in my post.

"Fringe" neighborhoods a stop (or even a couple blocks) away will clearly put price pressure on the non-fringe. Especially when 4th avenue has been pretty much demolished and rebuilt (don't forget rezoning). It simply has to be factored into analysis...

"Yes, there are people who preferred it for sure absolutely. But the majority of the migration was for price factors, no matter how many people now explain "yes, its better, thats why I did it".

I can't tell you how many folks I know who changed their stories post-move to try to make themselves feel a little better about what they missed.

I think we're actually going to see some backlash in the next couple of years..."

Again, I just don't know where you're getting this from. "To make themselves feel a little better about what they missed?" Yikes. Unfounded "anecdotal" stories, really.

""Fringe" neighborhoods a stop (or even a couple blocks) away will clearly put price pressure on the non-fringe. Especially when 4th avenue has been pretty much demolished and rebuilt (don't forget rezoning). It simply has to be factored into analysis..."

I agree here. I don't know much it will affect Park Slope, but it will to some degree. There are certainly some people who would be tempted by the lower pricing, though there are also people who would never venture outside the prime blocks either.

> Again, I just don't know where you're getting this from. "To make themselves feel a little better
> about what they missed?" Yikes. Unfounded "anecdotal" stories, really.

Anecdotal, absolutely. Unfounded... not correct.

armstp:
I'm a broker in Brooklyn, and I have clients looking for 2 bedrooms in Park Slope/Prospect Heights. They've just entered the market, feeling that prices are dropping, and that they are not in a rush, but ready to move quickly should the right place come along. Two years ago I had similar clients with the same parameters. They were looking for something under $600K, and having a hard time finding it. My clients are looking for something around $500K, and there is a lot of inventory. Most of it is still above $500K, but it's not moving, and I think we'll find them what they're looking for before the end of the Spring, if not sooner.

So - prices are already down by 10%-15%. Inventory is up a bit, and sales have slowed. I have advised my clients that even if they buy a great 2 bedroom at $500K, they should be prepared to see prices dip even lower. But rates are great for them at the moment, and they will be buying a place to grow into, so they feel okay about the market continuing to drop. The monthlies make sense to them, compared to renting, and they are in it for the long haul.

If I had to guess, I'd say that in Park Slope, I think we're headed to 2003 prices. Just one person's guess, and who knows, right?

Tina24hour,

Do you think that apartments will hold their value in say the 321 PS zone? The zone is actually quite small and I do not imagine many apartments come up for sale that often. I am also wondering if there will be many forced sellers because of lower income from people who really pushed it on the mortgage in the past? There have got to be people that will really start to bleed?

I am looking for a 3 bedroom in the $1 mm range in a good school area in Park Slope. I do not really see much inventory on the web. Do the brokers hold inventory that does not make it to the web?

Tina,
Not trying to be confrontational, but where in the world are you seeing great 2BR's in park slope for 500k? My research on streeteasy has generally resulted in $psf on 2BR's in the $600 and $700s range. It seems to me $psf would have to come down to around $500psf in order to see those prices.

Is this a situation of needing to walk around the neighborhoods and going to the mom and pop brokers?

Please don't say anything about 4th avenue.

question, not being familiar with park slope, what is prime park slope boxed by?

I don't know any brokers who hold inventory, unless they're waiting for signed listing agreements. Where on the web are you looking? Many Brooklyn listings don't make it to Streeteasy. Be sure to check craigslist (this is a drag, I know, and full of garbage/semi-fake listings) and NY Times, as well as the local brokers' sites. You can go to Brownstoner and click on each of the broker links. This is time-consuming, but it pays to be thorough.

As far as PS 321 is concerned, it'll hold its value relative to the rest of the ebbing tide. As it was always pricier, so shall it remain. But there are other great schools, especially at the elementary level, and you should visit them and see what you think. A lot of parents feel passionately about certain features - great bilingual classes, small class sizes, great arts program, what have you - and seek those features outside of the 321 zone. InsideSchools can give you a lot of parent feedback...

Tina, I'd like to know too. I've been watching that area for months, and any 2-brs I'm seeing are either waaay fringe or as small as 1-bedrooms. Most of them actually are 1-bedrooms that have been cleverly renovated.

And, annoyingly, a bunch of them have gone into contract, even in the past couple of months.

I'm with junkman_r_u_serious and evnyc regarding 2-bedroom apartments in Park Slope. Even in less than prime Park Slope (for example, 4th avenue), the cheapest legitimate 2-bedrooms I've seen are $650k and up. If I had to guess, I'd guess that an average price for 1 bedrooms in Park Slope (even including less than prime spots) is currently about $475k.

Admittedly, my current clients aren't looking in PS 321, and they don't need two equal sized bedrooms, but here are a couple of interesting places:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/343189-condo-193-sterling-place-park-slope-brooklyn
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/336411-coop-904-union-street-park-slope-brooklyn

I'm not saying they're brilliant or perfect - just that they're cheaper than they would have been two years ago...

Tina,
Before the streeteasy lunatic squad starts ripping your post to shreds, thanks for taking the time to provide some examples. Those places aren't a good fit for what I'm looking for, but does demonstrate that pricing in the $500's does exist in Park Slope.

I have actually seen those listings before and do think that the "2br" designation is a somewhat specious claim.

I see no reason why anyone shouldn't wait until they can get $500psf on a 1,000sqft place in the slope.

what about South Slope around 16th and 15th streets? much cheaper than prime.

Anyone else have any further insight into the Park Slope market right now and in 2009?

Wait! If you can.
If you can't, then just offer what you're willing to pay. See what happens...

We've been looking for a while in PS and on the UWS. Personally I think PS is smoking crack to ask what they are for places. Especially considering that it's not easy to come by apts with 2 real baths. I can buy a place on the UWS now for less than PS. So why would we move?

LP1 - right?! Why would you move? I agree with you about those prices, but they will head down soon enough. But the UWS is there already, so enjoy!

Any other thoughts on Park Slope?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/361904-multi-380-butler-street-brooklyn-brooklyn

What's your opinion on this property?

I am not a particular fan of this stretch of new construction near 4th Ave. But it's cheap for the area. Still, not sure these units will hold their value as other buildings offering the traditional Park Slope attractions (period charm, good schools) come on the market.

I came down 4th avenue the other day and was blown away by the number of new buildings already up. I know it was a rezoning, but this is insane. HUGE numbers of new apartments. Problem is, there are still uhauls and junkyards and all these other things sandwiched in between. I know they'll go eventually, but you have to figure anyone buying now will be living through at least half a decade with 'em now that the boom is done.

Good for long term, but in the short/medium term I think this presents a bit of a problem for values overall.