USB says NYC is one of least bubbly RE markets

Interesting - nice to hear some good news. It's scarce these days.

NYC data source is Case Shiller and FHFA which are pretty useless for NYC for this exercise.

@300 why are these sources useless? Intuitively suspect I agere, but would love to know your reasoning.

Just check what type of housing they include and what area is included.
https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi/datasets

Single Family. What does it say about publisher of the research?

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-cotality-case-shiller-new-york-home-price-nsa-index/#overview

so then the correct conclusion is that single family market in NYC is not in a bubble?

No so easy. Their rent data is not single family.

What is a better measure to track how frothy or undervalued property is in NYC?

Does price to income ratio work for New York City? Although it's a bit simplistic, you can also monitor urbandigs market pulse metric. Keep an eye on days on Market, inventory and price reductions.

It will depend on the cap rates segmented as a minimum by $/sq ft price (buy vs rent calcs). Still you would only get cheap or expensive relative to other cities.

You can get a good idea from Samuel Miller sale and rental reports which will need some work.
Or
Lesser numbers from Street Easy rental index and price index ratio by borough which is not segmented by $/sq ft price.

My thinking is simpler on a relative basis. NYC flat in last 7-8 years with rents up 30% (suggesting that the demand is there) where as rest of the country and NYC suburbs up 30-50%. Currently you seem to be getting anywhere from 2-4.5% cap rate with smaller apartments / coops / non-luxury higher cap rates.

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What is a better measure to track how frothy or undervalued property is in NYC?

If you strip out rent regulated and public housing residents, it will give a good idea. But what price?

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Does price to income ratio work for New York City?

I’m assuming this study does not differentiate between condos and single family homes. In my experience, in many cities, such as Toronto and San Francisco which I am most familiar with, there is big difference in the two. In both cities, the condo market is very much a buyers market, in particular in Toronto, there is a glut of new construction condos. But in both cities, the market for single family homes is still very strong. See below for a home in San Francisco that recently sold for $1 million over ask. Now of course we shouldn’t draw too many conclusions from one data point but in both cities and I think many other cities, there is strong demand for homes in good neighborhoods. Many families simply don’t want to live in a condo but also don’t want to leave the city

https://www.ktvu.com/news/san-francisco-home-sells-nearly-1-million-over-asking

Interesting - about Toronto condos. I believe there's a near ban on non-resident foreign nationals buying property there.

Turbo, NYC is only less than 20% single family most of which is in much cheaper areas away from public transportation. Rentals buildings / condo / coops are in completely different locations. Staten Island, Bronx, parts of Queens/Brooklyn for single family.

“Interesting - about Toronto condos. I believe there's a near ban on non-resident foreign nationals buying property there.”

Yes I believe there is…Vancouver was the first to implement and then Toronto. It does not apply to Canadian citizens who live abroad and are non-residents for tax purposes, such as me. Toronto also has a vacancy tax….if you own property and you don’t live in it, it’s not rented or occupied, or it’s not undergoing some sort of renovation…you are subject to a vacancy tax. I don’t know how/if they actually verify this, supposedly every homeowner fills out a questionnaire and you are warned that anybody is subject to audit so if you claim it’s tenant occupied, you could be required to provide a lease and/or other proof. But unlike NYC, rents are also in decline in Toronto. Again I think is due to oversupply….I’ve visited Toronto many times in the last 5 years and was almost amazed by the cranes and construction sites that dotted the downtown and lakefront. I really wondered if there were enough buyers out for all those brand new shiny high rises. I guess I have my answer now….I got out a couple years ago with a decent return on my investment and I’m glad I did. I still own a house in Toronto but I’m much more optimistic about the single family home market in Toronto

You're Canadian? That would explain a lot.

UBS was just sued to $400 million
https://fortune.com/2025/11/07/tom-hayes-lawsuit-ubs-punish-banks-throw-employees-wolves/