What will be the average Manhattan price per square foot in Q4,08 and Q1,09?

Predicting that both will show up between $1050 and $1250. $1125 as a mid-range prediction. I'll be surprised by a number below $1000 and terribly surprised by a number above $1275

It will depend on the mix of properties.

I think they (Miller) should release the data for SOLD price per sqf, not the ask price which I think is what they currently do.
that is misleading, and not too broker-friendly (which is good for buyers)

i_want_to_buy_in_09

just head on over to "radar logic" web site for dalily RPX prices (bottom of chart):

http://www.radarlogic.com/daily%20price%20chart/DailyPublication.html

They also have their montly reports specifically geared toward Manhattan sales numbers by neighborhood. Really puts SE web site to shame about their inaccurate numbers on all fronts that people here keep throwing around.

With credit drying up, you might see fewer luxury condos selling in the mix and the reverse of the inflated mix effect that we saw in 2007. A double whammy to the data if you will... that becomes self deflating.

trying to interpret radarlogic numbers
1day 7 day and 28 day -- other than the issue that 1 day is noisier than 7 is noisier than 28 day
the trend for Manhattan seems to be a price increase
same for Charlotte
most are "bouncy"
Phoenix mild down?

While they will report the info that they have, I never can understand how the square foot info is calculated. It seems that it is all over the place and there are alot of 'creative' sq ft estimates. When there is no honesty from brokers or previous owners, people get frustrated and will sometimes abandon even trying to buy and will rent simply because they have no way to compare A and B. When developers count a portion of the common areas/amenities in the sq ft estimates of the apt, that really frustrates me. Obviously an apt costs more if there are alot of amenities, so you are paying for that in the maintenance and in the initial price, but don't insult me by inflating the sq ft numbers also. A bad double whammy on the price. It is surprising to me that the REBNYC has not done something about that to give more transparency to the consumer. Hopefully one day. I guess caveat emptor still applies.

What concerns me about Manhattan prices is that every asset class you look at right now, be it equities, bonds, whatever, seem to be reverting back to at least 2002 levels. Can Manhattan psf prices go the same way? If so, we've got a long way to go ($600 psf at beginning of 2002).

There's very little to suggest that it should be different. Maybe 2003 price... That's where crude oil is.

Agree w/ HMM...$600-800 sounds about right. About 50% off the peak. Won't get there by 1Q09 though. More likely, a floor of about $600 hits in 1Q11.

If you look at Shiller's data for the 10 index markets in the last correction, 1988-1992, most markets took about 2-3 yrs to hit bottom. WHat's really interesting to me about the last crash is that NYC went first - in 1Q88 we started to decline, and Boston. All the other big markets started to sag in 3Q90 or so. So Cal completely imploded, far moreso than NYC. Miami got creamed worst than us too. But they all followed NYC. In this cycle, the opposite is true: NYC held out nearly till last. I wonder why? Maybe the stock market crash of 10/87 took some of the wind out of NYC's sales in the last cycle.

I agree with the Admiral that Manhattan will fall back to about $700 psf on average, although I think it will happen by spring/summer 2010. Wall Street needs to be totally convinced that a comeback is loooooong in the offing. Eighteen months from now, I believe that realization will be fully sunken in to everyone. Goodbye to the many thousands of folks making seven figures on Wall Street, et al.

I'm going to take a stab at figures for:

4Q,08: $1,130
1Q,09: $1,075

Roughly down 5% each Q/Q which would be a pretty steep fall - but still reflecting old new construction contracts finally moving to sales.

For the full cycle I'd expect a peak-to-trough figure in the 50% range - all in all, a pretty extraordinary decline. Caveat emptor!

I think topper's estimates are fair.

The HUGE slowdown in sales mean the new trend won't affect the data much (fighting with old contracts). But it means the decline will go on for a while. I think it will actually pass when the "turn" happens because of the contract effects.

I think that is particularly true since I think a disproportionate levels of new sales is related to new construction which I think has particularly long lags between contracts and sales closes.

I'm guessing it's a slow motion train wreck for recorded sales prices. Contract prices, though, will probably be much more rapid.