Crain's article on NYC real estate, crime, the 70s..

Good overview...

I think this is a bit exagerrated, but I do think it plays to a larger theme... the "is it worth it" question...

"Some people are going so far as to leave the city, raising the specter of urban flight—one of the most damaging features of New York's decline in the 1970s. Mr. Lovenheim, the Internet entrepreneur, is convinced the city will deteriorate quickly and that crime will inevitably spike. He was no longer willing to pay exorbitant prices to live in the city.

“A year ago, paying $6,000 a month in rent seemed like it was reasonable,” he says. “Now, it doesn't. Between September and October, the economics of what you spend and where you spend it got subjected to a completely different set of rules.”

He relocated despite protests from his wife, Christina Zabih, who is from Barcelona and has never lived anywhere but in a big city.

“Some ready to pack up and flee

If there are more of those bus driver incidents or riots like they're having in Greece right now, I'd rather read about it from Pennsylvania,” he said, referring to Brooklyn bus driver Edwin Thomas, who was stabbed to death by a passenger last month."

and the crime stuff...

"Along with flight, crime was one of the most damaging aspects of the city's decline in the 1970s, and some see worrying signs. Murder was up 6% and robberies 2% as of late December, over the year before. Bank robberies, which tend to rise during tough times, were up 54%."

Does anyone think we will return to the 70s crime rate? I know there are about 5,000 less cops today than there were during Giuliani's term.

This supports what I have been arguing for a while. As this trend continues, you will see a floor put under house prices in the suburbs, leading to historical appreciation beginning in 2010 or 2011. Remember, prices started dropping appreciably in areas such as Westchester and Bergen County beginning in 2005, so these area are already ahead of the curve for Manhattan.

Not surprised. NYC is declining rapidly, and people are finally waking up and smelling the coffee. NYC is just not worth the cost and the dangers of living there.

Crime will never revert back to the 1970s or 1980s. There were a lot of historical significant events which will not repeat itself.
For one, crack, which has fortunately almost died out.
For another, the NYPD know has a much better method of tracking and policing. Whereas before, the NYPD did not really care about crime and rather was reactive they are now very proactive and have led the world in the monitoring and statistical tracking of crime through their COMPSTAT system.

I am kind of sick of articles, postings, etc., stating how NYC will go back to the ugly old days. Yes, housing is down and there are job losses, but the more aggravating circumstances that led to the increase in crime are not there. It is simply fact.

If NYC went back to the "old days" that would mean it would be only 100% safer and wealthier than Chicago.

Shudder to think...

"Does anyone think we will return to the 70s crime rate? I know there are about 5,000 less cops today than there were during Giuliani's term."

Read the article... well covered.

I'm starting to hear some "is it worth it" conversations (i.e. - living in the City vs. moving to the 'burbs) in my social circle. I'm not sure what that says about my circle - but if City services start to take a big hit and/or taxes rise significantly to cover the City revenue loss - people might start looking at LI, CT, and NJ again. For me - I was born and raised a City kid - so I'm sticking it out (althought I might have to get new friends).

That Crain's article is entertaining (by the way, here's a link that works: http://www.crainsnewyork.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090104/FREE/901039995 ). However, I'll believe the city is in distress the day I can easily secure a reservation at Per Se, or walk through Times Square at a brisk pace. Until then, life goes on.....

Well, my apologies, my link didn't work either.

yeah, its a streeteasy glitch.... doesn't like the =

"I'm starting to hear some "is it worth it" conversations (i.e. - living in the City vs. moving to the 'burbs) in my social circle.

Its not just yours. Think of all the yuppie parents in the mid levels - two lawyers - that used to make $300-400k, and now they're going down to $250k. Burbs are gonna look a LOT better when the kids come. UWS just got rezoned for schools, they're worried about money... buying a 3 bedroom place off the LIRR for $400k sounds a lot better than trying to stretch for a million just to get a 2 bedroom in manhattan.

And thats before school costs.

Nassau County, there they go!

manhattan is here to stay...nothing will change that nor will we go back to the 70's.

that's what they said about the titanic

nyc10022 : Nassau County property taxes are outrageously high, esp. compared to NYC. Those that like living on LI are already there. Nassau County has become in large areas now an extension of Eastern Queens.
I think to speculate on a mass exodus from NYC to LI or Westchester or CT is purely unfounded and has nothing to do with anything. NYC is, if anything, in better financial situation than most of the suburban government agencies. Nassau County is especially dependent on high property taxes for government funding. Housing on LI has been in a downward momentum now for 2 years.