Noah UrbanDigs also sees an uptick similar to Bellmarc president

is urbandig a bull or a bear???

i guess when the baseline is 0, 2 calls would be an uptick.

nice job quoting the last paragraph in a piece that's decidedly bearish on NYC's economy and points out that there are no indications that there have been any changes to fundamentals that would cast any near-term hope for the local real estate market. Also that the downturn locally has been much steeper than even Noah had expected.

Julia, www.urbandigs.com. I don't know how he would care to be characterized, but he certainly hasn't been positive about the NYC real estate or national/local macroeconomic situation recently, so I'd call him a bear, although not a knee-jerk one.

UrbanDigs also sees an uptick in inventory this week after the typical holiday dropoff, and his blog post today is about a massive uptick in unemployment figures, specifically "243,000 through 2010."

Where ya been tenemental? Happy new year!

Noah is neither bull nor bear...he is a unicorn.

Seriously, I think Noah is more of a moderate/realist, although a number of people may disagree with that characterization.

I am bearish on Manhattan, have been for past 18 months. Still am. When I make a statement like a slight uptick in demand, it means I am seeing buyers get a bit more interested given sellers are willing to do deals at levels that seem reasonable to them, and right now that level is 15-25% below peak.

I thought I was very clear: "I generally don't feel comfortable devoting a piece to topics like this until I see the pickup sustain itself for a minimum of 2-3 weeks; so lets just take this as a grain of salt. It is very likely that bids will still come in 15-20% below peak levels and price in near term 'downturn risk' that is perceived to be ahead of us."

Interpreting that to mean any more than it is, would be incorrect. Like I said, take it with a grain of salt.

Actually, Waverly, according to the posters the last couple of days Noah is both a porn star and a woman.

Enough to turn anyone bearish.

when i think of noah I'm reminded of the mailman on "Cheers" Whatshisname?

Besides, did you not read:

"Given that the worst is ahead of us in terms of job losses, it is quite silly to start talking about a bottoming and outright ridiculous to start talk about a near term recovery simply because prices started to fall and there are 'sideline buyers' waiting to swoop in."

in the piece...

Not that there's anything wrong with being a porn star, or a woman, of course. Unless you're not. Maybe even then. Never mind.

When I think of Noah Im reminded of a broker who clearly never called this downturn, talks out of his a$$, and is a typical broker talking typical babble to better his career. Buy now or be priced out forever, sounds like Noah.

I agree, UD. In my business December was dismal, now I have more work than I know what to do with. Let's see if it's just a little pent-up demand, or whether it's sustainable.

Hey JuiceMan, hope the holidays were good to you. I've had a few posts here and there, but not like the old days. Mostly too busy with work (*knocks wood*), and I had a run of working Sundays that kept me away from open houses. Kind of broke my SE addiction, though I'm still a regular reader.

December was bad for almost every sector of business. There just was no desire to spend any capital at that point in the year. Hold onto it until January at the earliest...definitely seeing that from amny firms and it makes a lot of sense.

Noah - haha...very funny! I do think this whole bull and bear thing is kind of ridiculous. I think intelligent analysis of the situation can bring you to a feeling that right now is not a great time for NYC RE, but that doesn't mean you are a bear. It just means you are open to what you see. I more associate the terms bull and bear with someone who is a perma-bull or a perma-bear. I don;t think either of those camps is too effective.

thank ya thank ya! Got to keep sense of humor in tact in these times. I have been negative on Manhattan for about 16-18 months with daily discussions on why I thouhgt this credit crisis would be more severe and last longer than most economists at the time. Go back to say AUG 2007, and browse topics discussed and you will see it all right there. I shifted content on UD to credit crisis around AUG 2007, to focus on that threat.

waverly, totally agree. The trouble in boom times is you have too many of the former, and the trouble in a recession is you have too many of the latter! We can't have it all I guess!

tenemental, great to see you here - it's probably for the best you broke the addiction, but always good to hear from you on here.

uptick..tick...tick...tick..

Did we bottom on Oct10? Sure looks that way...so 3 months to go before the end of the recession?

http://www.forbes.com/2009/01/08/intelligent-investing-market-bottom-recession-panelJan8.html?feed=rss_news

digs, does your elbow hurt? Mine would if I pat myself on the back that often.

tenemental, I sort of broke the addiction but relaspe now and then. Anyway, best to you for a great 2009.

steveF - no

yea it hurts alot. Im the best Im the best! Look at me IM THE BEST!

Thanks Juice, this is fun!

"Did we bottom on Oct10? Sure looks that way...so 3 months to go before the end of the recession?"

haahaaaahahahaha... thanks for the laugh.

aboutready said:

"Actually, Waverly, according to the posters the last couple of days Noah is both a porn star and a woman."

In addition, another poster has come to the conclusion that aboutready and I are the same person.

MMAfia...was that haahaaaaahahahahah or haaahaaaahahahaha??

There is definitely only one aboutready

407PAS: That was only because you weren't fighting in a thread. It's suspicious if the thread doesn't get abused by insults or laughing.

Well, actually, we were fighting, and they thought the same person was posting both sides of the fight. After we made up, they agreed that we were different people. Go figure.

"Did we bottom on Oct10? Sure looks that way...so 3 months to go before the end of the recession?"

first it was "there is no housing bubble"
then it was "we're not heading into a recession"
then it was "this will be a very slight recession"
then it became "ok, this is the bottom- we will start recovering from here"

looks like we're in an endless loop right now where the same people keep trying to call the bottom over and over and over and over...

only to be wrong again and again and again and again...

and now, you want people to listen to these idiots who have been consistently wrong time and again?

Bwaaahahahahahahah!!!! this board truly lives up to its entertainment value. don't stop though, it gets funnier each time you're wrong.

MMAfia, I hear you (and agree it's silly to start talking about bottoms), but your post sounds almost identical to the infamous malraux idiots thread. I think you can now appreciate where he was coming from. It's also not clear if steveF means the housing market or the stock market has bottomed. The latter is a more believable scenario though I still have my doubts there too. I am kicking myself for not buying DRYS at 3.54.

waverly, if you define bulls and bears as idiots who pay no attention to the evidence, then why not just call them idiots who pay no attention to the evidence and save the terms bull and bear for something useful. 'moderation' is only a good thing when the evidence calls for moderation. noah is a bear, i presume, because the evidence leads him to be bearish. that's why i'm a bear on nyc real estate. but i'm certainly not bearish on everything. i'm a bull on tobacco stocks, and coming around to bullishness on some of the pharma stocks. i'm a bull on revenue bonds. i'm a bull on some of the oil company stocks. i'm a bear on the contemporary art market. etc. etc.

There are actually people who will get bonuses. Buying can be an ego thing, and/or a nesting thing... Why wouldn't there be an uptick after the holidays. There's probably going to be a bigger uptick in supply being held off for the traditional bonus season that will sadly disappoint.

I'm putting this into the category of "grasping at straws"...

Am I reading this right?

Are we so blinded by our own hardened bearish beliefs that we can't see what is going on? No one mentions cares to mention the following:

Of course, activity is picking up. Bonuses were still given out at year end for quite a few people and in case you haven't heard, rates for a 30 year conforming for loan amounts up to $625,000 went from the mid 6's% to in the 4's%. This means real estate got much cheaper. 2% reduction in interest rate for a $600,000 property means a buyer's monthly payments got instantly reduced by $1,000 a month. And given the preception and in many cases, a reality of price reductions, a heckava lot of people are now back into buying. Granted probably more activity in the lower end (<$1m) but with talk that the government wants to push up the conforming loan limits back up to $729k, this should strengthen an even higher purchase price target.

I am neither a bull or bear on real estate here because who really knows? But in this situation, I am simply being a realist.

Everybody here seems so blinded by their own polarizing beliefs that they can't even objectively analyze the market. Geez, remind me NEVER to take advice from y'all.

Unless there is an expectation that mortgage rates will remain that low in the long term, this shouldn't have as pronounced an impact as you might think. For people with shorter time horizons, getting low payments for only a few years might not sufficiently offset risk of price depreciation. And, unless low rates are propping up prices in the long term, they won't help that much in the short term because of the expectation that the lower rates are temporary (of course, they'll help some - and more, the more long-term buyers there are, but especially in this price range, time-horizons tend to be shorter).

JohnDoe, I understand your point but I counter with the following:

1) These are 30 year fixed mortgages.
2) If you don't buy now or in the very near future, you will probably never be able to lock in to these rates ever again.
3) People tend to live in their homes for many years. A lot can happen to the economy during this span.
4) If you buying a condo, you can always rent out your unit to increase your holding period.

And what is your definition of a short time horizon? Less than 5 years? Most homeowners I know have owned their own many years beyond that. We will definitely be in a different economic and housing market by then. Hopefully, a better one but regardless there is always a risk in investing. And if prices don't improve by then, most people will bite the bullet and hold on to it longer. In most cases, they have this option because they are locked in for 30 Years on their interest rate.

We aren't talking about an adjustable rate here. With a 30 year fixed, it can give you plenty of options.

Are you getting much business from this site, BA?

I work in finance but dabble in real estate investing on the side. I do not have anything to sell at the present moment but am looking to get back in only if the deal makes sense.

> Did we bottom on Oct10? Sure looks that way...so 3 months to go before the end of the recession?

Cool. That means only 3.5 more years till apartment prices bottom!

nyc10022, I'm not saying we've bottomed out. You don't know, I don't know and NOBODY knows. All I am saying is this, what costed $600k a couple of months ago to buy effectively cost $440k now because of the lowered interest rate. How did I get to a price decrease of $160k?

2% rate decrease for a $600k mortgage = $12,000 a year or $1,000 a month in payment reduction

$1,000 a month payment at 6.5% (2 months ago) = $160,000 loan balance

This means that if you took a mortgage out for $160,000 at 6.5% rate, the monthly payment would have been $1,000 a month.

So a $600k property's price tag got effectively reduced by $160k with the interest rate decrease.

Obviously in this example mortgage amt = sales price (or 100% financing). I kept it this way to keep it simple. The property price would be more to include the down payment.

But this is why you are seeing an uptick in activity, especially in the lower end properties (< $1m) because cheap mortgage money is only available up to $625,000. But looks like it will be bumped up to $729,000 in the near future. And don't forget, even though less bonus money was given out this year, many still received bonuses.

Will this cause prices to stabilize? We'll see.

But everyone here has completely disregarded a fundamental component in housing prices. Wake up! Your unyielding opinion of a bear market has blinded you from making an objective analysis. So much so that you jump on anyone, even calling them liars, when they comment on the recent increase in buying activity.

If you don't believe me, drop by several open houses for $1m or less properties over the weekend. You'll see a lot more buyers than you would have expected.

What a common misperception. Payment is payment and price is price. You dont save money on a purchase price just because the payment is lower. Your little equation above relating price to monthly savings on a lower interest rate is moot. You actually want to buy when interest rates are high and money is tight. I doubt cheap mortgage money is easy to get. Appraisals are tougher, income qualification is tougher, and loan to values are lower. You say no one knows the future, but to think we have bottomed in three months given the state of the Manhattan economy...that's about as poor a bet as one could imagine. To present it next to the bear case as equally valid an opinion is just absurd. No one knows at what level this will bottom, but anyone with any sense knows that it hasn't bottomed yet. Yes cheaper money means higher demand. There will be people who think this cheaper money and 20% reduction in price combine to create an opportunity. That is what makes the real estate market so painfully slow. Clear these silly buyers out over a couple of quarters and then watch and see. With every silly purchase we have one less optimism left in the buyer pool. If you think there are enough employed optimists to absorb the resales and condo construction... I mean that's just crazy man crazy.

PS: Dude that $1000 you save is pre-tax per month....$650 after tax...which is equal to 250 months in order to be 'equal' to $160k.

Rhino86 makes good points here. Price is price, and in the end, that will be the biggest motivator for sales. Where I do see some merit to BigApple's point is affordability. Cheaper monthly carrying costs certainly increases the pool of potential buyers, but I also think the tightening of credit has, to date, largely canceled this out. For those who could comfortably buy when rates were higher, I think this is a good thing, but unless they come across a great deal on a place they love, I don't see the harm in waiting, and I think that's what we're seeing with sales volumes where they're at now.

Rhino, for someone who owns the property, no one is saying prices ACTUALLY dropped by $160k. What I am saying is because of lower interest rate:

Payment on a $600k mortgage = Payment on a $440k mortgage

Whether to equate it to prices is just semantics. But it is the same effect. The truth is it is now cheaper to own than it was 2 months ago.

And the $160k was based on a payment of $1,000 a month which included principal too. If I did it as an interest only, the loan amount would have been higher. So lets call the tax benefit from mortgage interest even.

Actually the price of a $1mm place is down more than $160k since the summertime. Its about $200k.
(2) I understand your payment equation but that's a silly way to look at it...Not to say there aren't some at the margin who will. They will all buy in Q1 and then what? If you think its easier to borrow now than it was a few months ago you are sorely mistaken. The fact is in your neverland example the person likely needs to earn more and put down more to qualify for said place. So to say net net people have more buying power now than a few months ago, thats not so. This is no longer a marketplace driven by how much people can afford. Its a marketplace driven by fear until it becomes a marketplace driven by value. The bottom line is the person looking at the $800k place is worried its falling and chosing to rent one like it for $4000 a month....because guess what 17x rent still aint cheap other than in comparison to 2006 and 2007 and its a long way from the single digits we say in the 1990s.... and rents are falling. You are just foolish. This was all debateable until September when all shit broke loose. This idea of an orderly 15% adjustment vs an off the chart peak is like saying the tech bubble down 20% was going to stop there...Its just fucking foolish. The only thing worth talking about here is timing of the bottom and levels at which value is apparent.

And all this doom and gloom prediction about our local economy and how it will affect real estate prices, I've heard it before.

I remember when the tech bubble burst several years ago. What happen in San Francisco? Many people saw their fortunes wiped out overnight, office vacancy more than tripled, many companies went under, there were massive job losses, etc. People everywhere were predicting a real estate crash in the area and called the buyers who were taking advantage of the "small" price correction silly. Sounds familiar?

What happened a few months later? After the small and brief price correction, prices stablized and resumed their upward ascent.

Will it happen here? Who knows? NOBODY knows, not even you.

You are dreaming man. I am not saying how low it will go, although I have ideas. I am saying if you think this market can clear at this price, with this inventory, with this job market, with this stock market.... Its just a sucker bet, and if you want to make that bet I can forward you my information. Your opinion is just not as good as the bear one. Its not as good because there is nothing but the assertion that 'NOBODY knows' behind it. That's shit.

So I guess all those people who bought real estate in San Francisco after the tech bust were dreaming too? And how about the people who purchased NYC real estate after the small correction immediately after Sept of 2001? Were they dreaming too?

And Rhino you are saying prices truly have corrected 20% already. Now add the effective lower cost of owning due to decreases in interest rate as stated above.

Hence, in effect, you have already seen a decrease > 40% in the cost of owning for properties less than $1m. Is it that much of a stretch then to say a 40% or more reduction already in the cost of owning could potentially be a "bottom"??

We ain't dreaming here. Dreaming is saying NYC real estate will double in 6 months. To say real estate here can stablize after already seeing ownership cost go down by 40% is by no means, a big stretch. Let alone a fantasy.

Its clear by the things you are saying that you don't grasp the severity of the changes in the financial industry or appreciate their role in the meteoric rise of Manhattan real estate. Further, in 1999 by a host of metrics the price of real estate was umpteen times more defensible relative to rents, as was it in Manhattan in 2001. Price -20%, true mortgage costs not down -20%.... but even if, 0.8 x 0.8 = -35% of mortgage and you are ignoring maintenance. BigApple stop talking to me. Even Noah who you misquote is pissing on your premise. You are a joke.

Compounding -20% gets you -35% you fucking idiot and maintance is a huge part of the monthly cost. Your math sucks. Your opinion sucks. Shut the fuck up.

Run the math you moron the cost of owing is far from down 40%. Rents are also down. Signing out you are too frustrating.

YOUR math is wrong. $160k reduction of $600k is not a 20% decrease. It's about 26% so with your 20% reduction, it is around 40%.

And apparently, I've riled you up. lol. You need to RELAX. Life isn't that bad unless of course you look like a rhino. lol.

Both the price reduction and your silly math about mortgage rates ignore the very large part of the denominator called maintenance, dummy.

Also you ignoring something called compounding dummmy. If prices are down 20%, but people put down 20%, then the mortgage size is only down 16%. If the mortgage cost is down 20%, then multiply 80% x 84%, which gives you -33% not -40% of something that doesn't include maintenance. Is that nicer? So now assume that your mortgage is only 2/3rd of your monthly cost and maintenance is the other 3rd. Now 66% of your payment has been reduced by 33%.... So the cost of owning is down 20%. Was this clear? And no, 20% is not enough.... and actually to get to your 40%, now I need to reduce the mortgage another 30% because the morgage is only 2/3rds of the cost. So if -40% is where you think support is, you should agree we have another 30% down off a base of 80% of peak price. Got it. Read it slow.

BigApple, interest rates are lower due to the fact that the economy sucks & the Fed is artificially suppressing conventional mortgage rates. Nothing new here. On the flip side, maintenance costs are rising and too often, by a significant percentage which does offset the decline in mortgage cost.

My dose of reality is the message of the stock market. If one looks at NY concentrated publicly traded companies ranging from financial institutions, commercial real estate trusts and retailers, their equity values have plunged 50%, some 80% and some 100% in value. The aforementioned had "upticks" as well along their way to their ultimate price levels.

Time will tell what the ultimate outcome of this massive credit bubble bust will be on the NY economy and the reast of the country. A always, different folks will pick their own spots and jump in.

bigapple:

properly speaking NOBODY KNOWS if the sun will explode tomorrow. NOBODY KNOWS whether barack obama will take over as president next week, or whether there will be a military coup before he has the chance. NOBODy KNOWS whether the chinese government will eliminate mandarin as the official language and replace it with esperanto.

that's the nature of the future: until it actually happens, NOBODY KNOWS what will take place. but that does not mean that we can't come up with probabilities and general expectations. i don't know about you, but i am going to continue to act as if the earth will keep revolving around the sun, barack obama will take over as president, and new york real estate prices will continue to plummet.

bigapple:

properly speaking NOBODY KNOWS if the sun will explode tomorrow. NOBODY KNOWS whether barack obama will take over as president next week, or whether there will be a military coup before he has the chance. NOBODy KNOWS whether the chinese government will eliminate mandarin as the official language and replace it with esperanto.

that's the nature of the future: until it actually happens, NOBODY KNOWS what will take place. but that does not mean that we can't come up with probabilities and general expectations. i don't know about you, but i am going to continue to act as if the earth will keep revolving around the sun, barack obama will take over as president, and new york real estate prices will continue to plummet.

Big Apple - But I have had this exact argument about 12-14 months ago right here on this SE forum with Spunky and a few others. They fought passionately AGAINST and I fought passionately WHY this slowdown would be so severe giving specific reasons and examples in the discussion to back up my case. Stevejhx has been there too going back about a year ago.

We are at now now, and even Spunky, who fought against this as just another rumor filled slowdown that never pans out, came around. Things are very different right now, from a structural standpoint.

"properly speaking NOBODY KNOWS if the sun will explode tomorrow. NOBODY KNOWS whether barack obama will take over as president next week, or whether there will be a military coup before he has the chance. NOBODy KNOWS whether the chinese government will eliminate mandarin as the official language and replace it with esperanto."

True... but anyone with a brain knows that that I won't be winning the marathon, and that RE won't be bouncing anytime soon.

Just because there are certain things one can't predict, doesn't mean there aren't certain things that can be predicted... particularly when we are talking about major trends...

I can predict that the winner of the race will come from that bunch in the front near the finish line...

My issue with the people on this site who say 'no one knows' is that isn't the blog for offering and supporting opinions? 'No one knows' offers nothing to the discourse, other than masturbation of hope that owners assets aren't falling in value. I mean if investory started falling fast, that is an example of a bull case... 'No one knows' is a waste of space.

Straw man argument. Its 100% valid that nobody knows if the stock market will be up or down tomorrow. Or even next month, or even next year. Warren Buffett said he doesn't know himself, so if you think you know, you're wrong. I can still say with a lot of certainty that the Dow won't be at 100 next year, nor will it be at 100,000. Yet that doesn't imply that I can predict rational levels to any degree of accuracy.

The original point is just as valid. People have had as much (if not more) reason to predict doom and gloom from the other situations mentioned (San Fran after the tech bubble burst, for example). They were just as self-righteous as nyc10022, thinking they're predicting a winner from the front-pack of marathon runners. But the economy isn't a marathon, those people were wrong, and so could you people here.

Again if no one knows, why are you on here? No one has mentioned a level... They have simply said that a market down 20% (which is something you deny anyway) after being up this much in the last decade, in light of city conditions, in light of inventory, is unlikely to have stabilized in three months... The counter argument is weak, period. "No one knows" is the biggest cop out ever... Momentum as a factor in real estate is simply undeniable. With momentum already in place and simply no counterarguments, stabilization is a weak argument on the face.

Buffet claims to know the stock market is low enough to be a good five year investment. We claim to know that real estate is not yet low enough to make it a good five year investment.

Buffett knows that he can be wrong (he has been before). I know I can be wrong. You don't believe you can be wrong. Which makes you wrong already, regardless of where the market moves.

Listen corky, anything that gets written on a blog is by definition is someones opinion. If I state something, I am well aware I am expressing opinion. This is not a courtroom. If you want me to be precise like a programmer, I have been trolling this silly thing for a couple of months now, and I have not heard one compelling argument for why this market correction in NYC real estate is complete. Condos are coming on every day. Finance is in the shitter. Price to rent ratios are still historically high. Getting a loan is tougher than it had been for years. Downward momentum is in place only a short time. Real estate is historically a long trending market (sticky)...etc...etc...etc... Rents are falling. Inventories are very high. Rates of transaction are very low. This is not about right and wrong, its the idea that no compelling data is on the side of your opinion other than bullshit about 1999 San Fran...."No one knows"

Are you really on here to champion the cause that opinions are in fact, opinions? That's pathetic. If you were a student of history, you would know you bought your place at a historically high end price to rent ratio and you would slink away with that. You could say, hey listen I never thought it would fall 20% in three months but bygones...I will eventually eat my loss and trade up. Then you would shut the fuck up.

Why would I shut up when I can say so little, yet cause you to waste so much time constructing straw man arguments that only make yourself look weak?

You have nothing. I just listed a bunch of bearish factors. I'm weak, yet you are a recognized village idiot on these boards. You bought a one bed at the top...that makes you one of the biggest dopes in this cyclical drama by definition.

Basically your role here is riling up bears by making baseless hopeful statements and displaying ignorance of how markets work. Congrats, you're a success.

"Its 100% valid that nobody knows if the stock market will be up or down tomorrow."

That's obviously true. It's also a completely worthless argument. Anything's possible, but a logical argument is focused on probability, not possibility.

billshiers: To take that 1 line out of context shows you made no attempt to understand my argument.

Rhino: You're just proving my very point. In San Fran they were just as self-righteous as you. They had nothing but negative news, just like you. They were wrong. Your argument amounts to "no really, there's NOTHING but negative news! look, here's more, and here's some more". Thanks - but we already have enough examples to show that you're following the example exactly.

Throwing in the ad hominem is a bit of a monkey wrench though. People who believe their own arguments don't resort to that. By throwing it in, you're revealing that you don't believe your "no really, its ALL negative" insistence, which makes it a break from San Fran. Oh the catch 22!

How am I supposed to argue with a guy who doesnt understand historical price to rent ratios well enough to take a pass on a one bed at the top of the market?

In 1999 price to rents were low, and interest rates were higher....In this way, monkey-man, there were arguments for upside. Today, rates are low already and price to rents are high. Therefore, the comparison is pretty silly. Yes, you can find many examples where people are bearish and turn out to be wrong. They also sometimes are bearish and turn out to be right. In this way, we can review your idea of rhetoric as actually just burping truisms.

tech_guy,

billshiers got your argument exactly right. you are doing no more than reiterating the initial asinine assertion that we can just say 'no one knows' about the future and leave it at that. no one knows anything about the future--it's the FUTURE. any statement about the future is a statement based to some extent on conjecture and deduction. so what? does that mean we should act as if the probability that the sun will explode tomorrow is equal to the probability that it will not? make an actual argument as to why real estate prices will stabilize or rise. don't claim that stating 'no one knows' is an argument.

by the way, you say warren buffett knows he can be wrong. i'm sure he does. and i venture to guess that rhino knows he can be wrong as well. and i hope you know that you can be wrong. but just because i can be wrong does not mean that i am wrong. MAKE AN ARGUMENT that rhino and i are wrong, don't just say 'you could be wrong.' yes, we could. but you haven't given us a reason to believe that we are.

His argument is as follows: (1) no one knows the future, (2) in the past bears in certain markets have been wrong, (3) Buffett knows he can be wrong.

This goes back to one of my first posts to Streeteasy. I asked for the bulls to give their best. It degraded into a total shit show. In the end, there was not one single factor given by the bears to counter the shitload of negatives.

tech_guy, you're either a complete idiot or a desperate owner or broker. Or all of the above.

happyrenter: You got it wrong too.

Your argument and Rhino's argument was that you can predict many things. That the sun won't explode. That there won't be a military coup against Obama in the next week. That therefore, you can predict real estate. I'm showing how stupid that is - just because I can predict that the Dow won't hit 100 or 100,000 tomorrow doesn't mean I can predict the Dow.

The original argument was that San Fran also had nothing but negative news, predicted downward, and was wrong. Your argument amounts to "no really, we have NOTHING BUT NEGATIVE NEWS can I yell it any louder? Why aren't you listening?". We hear you loud and clear, and you're just further proving that you're exactly the same as San Fran.

Next you say we're not providing any arguments for positive. You're right. The argument at hand right now is that markets can't be predicted. Cue your response - I'll do it for you: "I don't think you understand. There's NOTHING but NEGATIVE news!!!".

I also don't believe the news is all that negative. I think those of you in finance think its worse than it really is, because for finance, it is worse than any other industry. You're projecting this to the economy as a whole, and you're wrong. But that's a topic for a whole 'nother thread.

Tech_guy is a programmer who payed 18x rent over the summer for a one bed before Lehman went tits up. Now he denies the market is down 20%, and argues there are compelling (yet unstated) reasons why the worse is behind the NYC real estate correction (which he barely admits exists, and if it does, his property is isolated from it).

but tech_guy, have you been out to san francisco recently? the san francisco real estate market has been pretty weak for years. it's still down, adjusted for inflation, from where it was during the tech bubble.

you are now making two completely contradictory points. on the one hand, you are arguing that because all the news is negative, things really aren't bad (just like san francisco!). and then on the other hand, you say that ll the news isn't really negative--but then you provide no positive news. so which is it: the news is so negative that things have to be good, or the news isn't that negative so things have to be good? wow, you have constructed a rosy little world for yourself, haven't you! even when the news is bad, it's good!

the point, tech_guy, is that i am perfectly aware of the possibility that i am wrong about this, or about anything else that may or may not occur in the future. you could also be wrong. but i am not going to change my opinion simply because it could be wrong. i will change it when i am given an actual reason to believe that it is likely to be wrong. so please, give me a reason....

This is actually a good case study for why real estate is a sticky market. So much denial. So much emotion. Also data is so flawed and lagged it expands and extends the scope of the denial.

tech_guy, another thing: i don't think i can predict exactly where real estate is going--far from it. i'm not a clairvoyant. but i can do arithmetic. increasing supply + plummeting demand + frozen market = declining prices. do i know when exactly what point they will bottom out at, or exactly when they will bottom? again, of course not. your cute little dow example is exactly what i am saying: i have 100% certainty that real estate prices have weakened substantially over the last few months (that's in the past, no guesswork required) and reasonable certainty that they will continue to decline. please, tell me i should think otherwise. i'd love to hear.

"on the one hand, you are arguing that because all the news is negative, things really aren't bad (just like san francisco!)"

That's ridiculous and any non-biased observer would question your reading comprehension skills. Get back to me when you're open minded enough to understand dirt-simple concepts from those who disagree with you.

To call anything you have said a 'concept' is way generous.

Techguy, here is the entirety of the paragraph i responded to:

"The original argument was that San Fran also had nothing but negative news, predicted downward, and was wrong. Your argument amounts to "no really, we have NOTHING BUT NEGATIVE NEWS can I yell it any louder? Why aren't you listening?". We hear you loud and clear, and you're just further proving that you're exactly the same as San Fran."

In other words, we are exactly like san francisco because all the news is negative. ergo, things aren't really that bad. what's the problem with my reading comprehension skills?

You read the above and say my conclusion is: "ergo, things aren't really that bad". The very next sentence of mine says "Next you say we're not providing any arguments for positive. You're right"

You're still right. And you're still so blinded by your own agenda that you fail to understand dirt simple concepts.

wait. i'm right that you provide no arguments for the positive. i think i very clearly understand that concept. with no argument for the positive, you base your bullish position on....

i'm still waiting to hear. you have no positive arguments, so....what? is jesus going to intervene?

OHHH you base it on 'nobody knows what will happen.' good luck with that one.

Your arguments are so simple that they're not even concepts. You won't beleive you made a bad purchase until you go to sell the place, so why not just crawl back into your hole until then and let the big kids talk.

Right or wrong about the market, its just money. Its not even a lot of money in the grand scheme of things. Yet even if the market tanks, it won't help happyrenter's reading comprehension skills, nor will it help Rhino's pathetic need to insult strangers on an anonymous message board. All things considered, I'm quite happy with where I am.

Cue the ad hominems.

"All things considered, I'm quite happy with where I am." This is not Oprah's site. This is a site dedicated to well reasoned arguments for where real estate is headed. People like you clutter it with hope and personal diatribes. You open yourself like a cheap whore to then act above the discourse with little at all to offer in the way of economic argument.

tech_guy, i'm thrilled that you are glad to be where you are. you're absolutely right: it's just money. it is odd to me that you say "cue the ad hominems" right after making ad hominem attacks. if you think it is impossible to say anything about the future direction of the real estate market, then i do have to wonder why you spend your time on this board. but as for it just being money, that's totally true, and i'm glad you're happy.

If he were happy, he would not log into here to say nothing and be lambasted for saying nothing.

whatever rhino. if he says he's happy, more power to him. doesn't make his arguments strong, but then he pretty much just admitted as much--acknowledging that there are no positive arguments, and that the basis for his faith in the real estate market is simply his belief that nothing can be predicted. so if he's happy, good. hopefully his happiness will sustain him through the years and years when his apartment is under water.

He hasn't actually admitted that his arguments aren't strong. His basic argument is that ours are futile in a world where nothing is predictable.

Anybody see the irony in the fact that the folks who were adamant about certain truths are now the ones saying "nobody knows".

Its one thing if certain people believed this all along.

But it is completely transparent backpedalling to be the one who, only when every last claim has been proven wrong, to only THEN come out with "well, nobody knows".

If that is the case, the board would be happy for the village idiot to stop posting about what he now admits he does not know...

> I'm quite happy with where I am.

Months of evidence to the contrary...

Rhino: "People like you clutter it with hope and personal diatribes"

Reread your own sad string of repeated ad hominems. You're the only clutter here. Not me, not happyrenter, not even stevejhx. Just you.

happyrenter: "if you think it is impossible to say anything about the future direction of the real estate market, then i do have to wonder why you spend your time on this board"

Current levels. This is a thread started about a recent uptick in activity, no?

"it is odd to me that you say "cue the ad hominems" right after making ad hominem attacks"

I think I've shown remarkable restraint, all things considered (mostly Rhino, less so you). You are free to disagree. When you've shown an amazing inability to even attempt to understand anything I've said, yet respond to it anyway, there's not much left for me to do but question your reading comprehension.

nyc10022: "folks who were adamant about certain truths"

I was never adamant about the future. Not once.

If you say 'ad hominem' enough, it will make you smart. It might even reach back in time and make your purchase well advised. Maybe it will even substitute for one reasonably well thought out support of your position. Wait, you have no position, other than that our bear case is hopelessly uncertain. Reality is you wrote a check for a down payment (now worthless). If the future is so uncertain, why do that?

tech_guy,

you still haven't told me what i got wrong about your argument. perhaps you think you wrote something different from what you actually wrote, but i have read it, re-read it, and i still feel pretty sure i know what it means and got it right. maybe you mean something other than what you wrote.

as i said before, i am still very open to hearing why you think real estate will go up. or if you don't think it will, why you think it is completely impossible to say anything about future prices. please, explain. i want to hear.