"Long Period of Hard Times"

Of course we shall now get the rants about how Rogers is an idiot (along with Schiff). I guess we can throw Buffet into that mix now that he has basically admitted to doing 'dumb' things last year.

I don't recall where I recently read that this financial debacle will take a generation to climb out of. Grim - but it did resonate.

Schiff is an idiot - Rogers just had a bunch of bad calls. I love Warren - anybody with a sense of humor.

Who cares if Rogers or Schiff had some bad calls if they hit the main point: The market, both stock and RE, was f-ed. They called it when everything was full of puppies and sunshine. What's the difference if the gold or China they said would do well hasn't yet? This is worse than even they expected when they made the calls.

Who do you think isn't an idiot? Who do you know that has been 100% right in their market predictions? Unless you say you spoke to Jesus/Moses/Mohamed about the market and they gave you some pointers, I'm pretty sure you don't know a soul that is above reproach.

Another good read, who also totally f-ed up his actual number predictions, is Harry Dent. He wrote a book, back in 1993, called "The Great Boom Ahead" that did a pretty good job of calling the boom that started in the mid-90s. He then calls the turn around and predicts the next Great Depression.

When I say calls, I mean nails. He called, back in 1993, that the market would turn markedly south in 2007 or 2008. Best of all, he uses for the base of his predictions something that can't really be denied: Demographics. Can't change those.

Farming? OK, call me skeptical on that one.

Yes, let's all become farmers. That's the answer.

Yes, and sleep at night in our bomb shelters with our Campbell's soup cans and trusty shotguns by our sides.

Tough times show what people are really made of. People who fall apart like this and call for the end of civilization as we know it really are weak people. Some people can handle stress and trying times, but most cannot. They're falling apart and can't hide it. When this recession is all over and behind us, I hope that people remember those people who stood tall and did not shake and those, like Rogers, who were acting on fear. Wall Street responds to greed and fear. It's easier to criticize the government's attempts than it is to be constructive and improve the situation.

How is appearing on cable TV and spreading fear and doom at a time when people are most suseptible being productive?

I'm thinking he has an agenda in spreading fear like this.

As someone who grew up on a large dairy farm, I can safely say farming is NOT the way to make money.

The farming might be a BIT far; but not much. I think the point more is that people need to learn to do something that provides a good. Woodworking, metalworking, growing food, etc. We used to be a manufacturing economy and, now, we're so based on services that we've lost our way. Not just as a country, but as a society. How many people do you know these days that can install a sink, build a bookshelf (not IKEA, a REAL one), or grow something besides a hearty house plant?

Having a trade is something that is, especially in a downturn, much more valuable to a majority of the population than someone that's trying to sell homes, investments, insurance, etc.

It's really agra industry. I actually agree. I'm used to the taste of food, it's a hard habit to break. The next bubble, as roger sees it is...agraculture. Farming is just a link in the chain.
I'll bet anyone that the next bubble isn't RE!
So...what is he saying?
We are in the shit!
DEEP!
Get used to the smell.
Your'e going to be calling it home.
Scary stuff.

Dismiss farming all you want, but there isn't an investor out there who doesn't wish the money he put in Citi, BoA or any financial company had been invested in ADM instead. Based upon stock prices, I think most investors still feel that way. What was it InvestorMan said? "Demographics. Can't change those."

Anyway point of the post was that maybe the bears on this board are not bearish enough on NY real estate.

" I think the point more is that people need to learn to do something that provides a good. "

But a good in demand. It's a high tech world. We should be doing more than farming, woodworking, and metalworking, for goodness sakes. China sure is.

"Another good read, who also totally f-ed up his actual number predictions, is Harry Dent. He wrote a book, back in 1993, called "The Great Boom Ahead" that did a pretty good job of calling the boom that started in the mid-90s. He then calls the turn around and predicts the next Great Depression. "

Yeah, that was the guy who called Dow 35k...

You don't even need a lot of monkeys on typewriters.... just get 25 to make up predictions, and at least a couple will be right. What are the choices? Up, down, up a lot, down a lot, stay still.

Hell, thats one out of five monkeys.

The 1950's was a period of tremendous growth for almost every sector of the US. The 1960's was also pretty strong, as the negatives were mostly coming out of civil rights unrest and obviously Vietnam was not such a bright spot.

I agree with LICC and Squid - farming is not really a great career for the masses right now and it hasn't been for a generation or two.