I'm also thinking about buying. Is it a good time?

It is the perfect time to buy.
Interest rates are still really low. Prices are lower too.
My opinion, that's part of the reason we have problems now.
Great timing there.

prices are still too high. I need a 50% drop, please god.

Prices have just started to drop after a very long run up. I am really hot to buy a place but I am looking for prices to go back to about 2004 levels.
I can't time the bottom but I would feel sick if I bought and prices keep dropping (I would like to get the most for my money). In the mean time I am going to open houses to make sure I know what I want.

lajeep- they arealready at 2004 leves- there are comps in all meighborhoods- ther is a big diff btwn asking price and what things are actually going into contract for-

Some places are there but the market as a whole is still all over the places. Can you show mw some examples?

It's a decent time to buy. I would offer 20 to 40 percent less than asking price and not compromise much unless it was a property I dearly wanted. Or wait another 6 months to a year.

any time is a good time to buy real estate. my grandmom bought a place for $10K, now it's worth $10M. no other investment can do that. hurry before you miss the boat and get priced out forever.

i don't think brokers are saying that any more. What is their new line?

I think the brokers are now saying
"interest rates are low and prices have bottomed - this is the best time EVER", OR
"you should buy because you want to live in it - not because you want to make a profit" , OR
"you can never really be happy in a rented house because you dont own it"

any other recent broker lines?

Buy when it's cheaper than renting (using current rents, which are probably down 25% from peak).

The real estate downturn in New York City is less than 9 months old; just the beginning really. The bottom might be at least a year away. Seller and some brokers are still deluded that it is 2007. That will slowly fade and we will see more realistic prices in the next year.

I wouldn't think in terms of a "bottom." Buy (in the next 6-12 months) if you are totally comfortable seeing a further 30% fall in the value of your home and seeing the value stay there for several decades. If you are relying on appreciation for a purchase to make sense don't do it - that is a dangerous assumption. Tokyo real estate is still trying to find a bottom after peaking 20 years ago.

Buy now or be priced out FOREVER!

Muahhh!

N0! Crash has just started.

It's the perfect time to buy - it feels like 1987 revisited. Try to close before September that should guarantee that you can enjoy a real joy ride ;-)
If your urge to burn money the fast way is rather limited, you may want to watch the weekly unemployment claims. That report comes out every Thursday at 8:30 am. It not a leading indicator but 10% unemplyment rate will not really support the Manhattan real estate market.

Highlights from last week's report:
Jobless claims data indicate severe levels of contraction are extending into March. Initial claims for the March 7 week rose 9,000 to 654,000 from a revised 645,000 in the prior week (639,000 initially reported). The level of claims have been steady for six weeks reflected in the four-week average which is at 650,000. There have been no special factors skewing the last month of data.

Continuing claims pose the worst news, jumping 193,000 in data for the Feb. 28 week to a record 5.317 million. Rising for eight straight weeks, continuing claims indicate that it's taking more time for the jobless to find work. The unemployment rate for insured employees is at 4.0 percent, the highest level since the early 80s and in line with expectations that the overall employment rate is pushing its way to at least 9.0 percent this recession.

Though today's report points to another month of massive payroll losses, it's important to remember that employment typically lags economic improvement. Data such as this morning's retail sales report, also released at 8:30 a.m., may be offering an early hint that the deepest part of the recession is passing, pointing to eventual improvement in jobs data.

Most of the people blabbing on this site have not clue.
ergo my name...just to let them know what people in the know think of them

Ht1...you sound like a smart person.

This is an excellent time to buy.
My personal opinion for the close of 2009:
Coops averages:
1 bed/1bth (3 rms)average will be 550,000
2/2 (4rms)will be 800 to 850,000

Condos
1/1 (3 rms)700 to 750K
2/2 (4 rooms) 1.2M to 1.5 depending on size and layout.

I think good condo building will hold at about 1000 per sq ft give or take.
Coops? trully with the crazy boards who the heck knows.

If you are looking for a place to enjoy or an investment for the long term it's a great time to buy as prices are low and rates are low. If you are looking to flip then it's a bad time to buy. You never, never know when it's the absolute bottom but we are close (imo)

If you believe Manhattan is on a lag to the rest of the country, why would you even think about buying now? Other regions are now experiencing a heart-piercing problem with foreclosures underpricing traditional sales - this took 18-24 months to develop in Florida or Arizona or California - it hasn't even started here.

People say Manhattan doesn't have the inventory of those areas - how do you know - there are a lot of condo projects still coming on-line in the next 12 months. It doesn't have to get as bad as FL AZ or CA; it just has to get incrementally worse near-term.

You should typically see volume pickup and inventory at least stop going up before you can declare a market-bottom. We're not even close to see that yet in Manhattan. Anyone who buys now either doesn't care because they plan to stay for a while (in which case they are effectively paying to eliminate the uncertainty) or ought to know they are directly speculating on painting the bottom. Why not wait until prices or volume go up first?

Jasmine how do you perceive the difference in price between coops and condos to be so steep? 40%? Since when?

fwiw, I would not buy right now. Equities are at 1997 levels - who is to say NYC real estate should not be at 2000 or even 1997 levels? Financial services decimated, huge city deficits, MTA bankrupt, taxes going up all over the place - things are NOT getting better, only worse. I would wait

Crescent
Everyone in the city has known for year, we might have, at some point a condo glut. I am not sure the time is yet here. Many of the new buildings will become rental, so those apartments may never (at least for several years) come on the market for sale.

Real Estate is to New York (Manhattan specifically) what oil is to Texas. There is just so much land.
The market is somewhat controlled and manipulated to bend toward the interests of large landlords and big developers. The little people get stuck in the cracks.

It's not about inventory, declaring a bottom or a top. It's about, or should be about, finding a place to call home. A place that you love to be in, yourself or with your family.

Everyone has different needs and desires. Every customer I have ever worked with has a different light,
that goes off in their face when we find the right space.

I have always told my customers, "Please, although it really is the biggest investment you will ever make, don't think of it that way. Buy for the long run, at least 5 to 10 years. Make sure you can afford the payments and have a minimum of 2 years carrying costs saved, after closing, just in case.
Then live in the apartment and love it. Odds are in your favor, that when you are ready to move up or on, you will have, in hand a good return on your investment. And just think of the memories.

Broker101 this is not the right approach with buyers nowadays. I heard the same rap from a broker and if I followed her advice I would be fried today. I agree this is a logical line of thought in normal times, but NOT for the current market conditions. If I choose a broker now, I'll prefer the ¨wait a bit if you can¨ type, like Burdhardtgroup or whatever is his name or Noah.
A house is an investment even if you don't think of it that way. You might need to relocate, die, divorce... That is why it's stupid to buy when the prices are absurdly high, unless you are very,very rich.

Mimi
The normal difference in price has always been 30% to 35%
If you want a bargain now, look at coops. The boards make it hard to sell.
My numbers reflect that.
Don't look at condos because the owners can rent and wait out the market.
Condos have always retained value better.
I could find more detailed numbers in the web but I think you understand.

Talking up the market helped a lot 2003-2007 when you had a tailwind. Your arguments were much more persuasive when they were actually being realized real-time.

Now you have several more headwinds- falling employment, rising property taxes, rising supply due to forced sales/foreclosures and the spike from condos started before regulations tightened mid-07, the dollar wiping out the foreign buyer market, and the best you can offer is that some condos go rental (this will affect the sale price market too) and some emotional sweettalk?

Jasmine, you have no clue. If your new development condo is 10% sold after 8 ms. in the market and you have dozens of millions in loans, you cannot go rental (especially if it may take decades to go back to your price point), you either slash prices 50% and pray, or auction, or something. If something is negotiable now is new development condos.

Jasmine, I didn't know the difference was that steep. I don't see a 35% difference in the listing at first glance. Could this be because there are way more condos now and several are distressed? Anyone else interested in commenting in the current price difference between coops and condos?
Broker101, one more thing: stay away from sugary coated phrases like ¨And just think of the memories...¨ That's how everybody got in debt...Times demand a pragmatic approach...

She's exaggerating. It was not 30-35% at the top of the market. It might be 30-35% at the bottom given the illiquidity of coops, but that would make coops a buy to cash in on the narrowing in a bull market.

Condos will probably sink to 750 or less per square foot. Coops less.

agree bronxboy - don't think about buying until market returns to mean. It's insane to buy condos at this over inflated price level. Jasmine sounds like a broker.

This sounds like all the talk 6 months ago. Guess who is winning that debate now? I will be back in another 6 months to see who is correct, again?. Anyone keeping score at home?

One more thought. I am not sure I like the thought about buying for a home to live in for years. How about waiting 6 months to buy a home to live in for years and get it at a lower price? That was good advice 6 months ago and it sounds like good advice now. I don't think New York is going to experience a catalyst that will improve the economy any time soon.