Open houses start to draw crowds - CRains

Really? I was out on the Upper West Side on Sunday and there were lots of empty spaces on those sign in sheets

thx for the post junkie...

LOL @ Karen23

It's all about pricing. If you list at an reasonable price, buyers (lookers?) will come out in hordes. Just a personal anecdote, but my broker listed my apt. (UES pre-war 1 bed) and a studio (post-war, one block south of us) on the same week. They both had their first OHs on the same Sunday. We had 16 people sign in, whereas the studio had one visitor. The difference? Our initial list corresponds to 2005-6 prices, whereas they listed at what they could have gotten in early 2008. People are looking for value. Buyers are not wasting their time browsing properties who clearly have a number of price chops in front of them.

sure kas but once the "properly priced" apt is gone then what do those other 16 sign-ins do once it sells? They fight over the other listings driving up prices before the economy turns better.

"For the past two weekends, for example, roughly 22 people have stopped by The Fairfield, a 21-unit new condominium in TriBeCa."

Going in couples, let's say, that's 11 for a 21-unit new condominium.

4 years ago people were LINED UP AROUND THE BLOCK.

LMAO. Math of uptick in traffic:

1 < 0.

steveF:... or they wait for another apt. in that price range - or lower! - to on the market.

i think the lookers are not all that different from rubber neckers slowing down to look at an accident. count me as a looker. not planning on buying for another year as i think housing has further to fall.

There was a lot of traffic at one of the OHs I attended this weekend on the UWS. But that's because they've slashed their ask to fire-sale levels. Word on the street is that they've already gotten offers from the OH... I'll believe it when (if) I see it.

People can stop by, what are their true intentions?

I just had lunch with the assistant to a top Manhattan broker, also a friend of mine. He said they are listing more property than ever. His words, "sellers are delusional". Many brokers are still afraid to tell the truth about pricing to their customers. Wouldn't you if you sold it to them in 2007 for $1700 dollars a square foot.

www.NYCRentrant.blogspot.com

Squid - which open house did you go to that is at fire sale levels?

340 West 86th? I think those still have a ways to go.

i went ALL OVER on sunday and encountered no crowds whatsoever. i was the only person on two of the sign-in sheets for open houses i hit at the end of their showings.

I also hit a few open houses in Harlem. There was very little traffic-- at most of them the sign-up sheets were empty.

stevejhx: "LMAO. Math of uptick in traffic: 1 < 0."

You know, not to be too picky here, but I really think you meant 1 > 0.

I am curious to see the posts by the perma-bears on this board when things turn. It's not that you're wrong, we definitely have come down substantially and have a ways to go. It's just that I have difficulty imagining any positive comments from this group when things finally do turn around (and yes, it will happen eventually, perhaps years away). The glee with which negative news is cherished and the disgust with which optimism is spurned is somewhat amusing. Count me among the realistic bulls: there is no money (through hh balance sheets or credit), therefore no buyers, therefore price declines; however, there is only one Manhattan and people still want to be here.

I will add that the joint efforts by posters to humiliate and oust Rufus from this community was stunning. I find it easier to ignore trollz (in general) but that guy needed to go.

If you are meaning to buy but staying on the sidelines waiting for a crash, you might be wasting your time. I know several owners and sellers who are not budging on their prices and would just like you, wait it out. Best time to buy is now when you have choices, you can negotiate hard and the brokers treat you like royalty. When the market recovers, the experience wont be as pleasant.

Just to be clear on the hoods, I looked in Chelsea and Flatiron. At Vesta 24 no one else had been at the open house and it was an hour in. At 280 Park Avenue South no one else had been at the open house and I went at the end. It was kind of crazy.

For those on this forum who use Twitter, perhaps consider using hashtags, like #nycopenhouse or #nycrealestate and then post an update on the openhouse/ property you are seeing. Then everyone could see real time results.

Example "#nycopenhouse 280 Park Ave South, OH 12-2 PM, 2 sign-in so far, 30 min left" OR "#nycopenhouse 340W86 12B - OH 1-3PM packed, priced well, broker serving cookies" etc, etc. As you watch your twitterfeed, you would know whether to skip listings on your target list, or to get their quickly.

If this became more widely accepted, brokers could also add in details like "#nycopenhouse 161W54 1301 - OH extended 1 hour to 4PM"

With all the available properties to see, it makes sense to work together.

Onward and Upward
~ Philip

FULL DISCLOSURE - I am the Chief Technologist at Coldwell Banker and President of Manhattan Association of Realtors. As a leader in the industry and a member of society, I have a vested interest in seeing the housing market and general economy turn around and start rising.

Seamus..excellent post. Couldn't agree more.

The open house scene on the Upper West Side is mixed (and as my hardworking spouse will attest, I would know). In general, a fresh, well-priced listing draws decent traffic. An older listing with a dramatic price cut - e.g. 315 W.106th - can attract some bodies too. Even those showings are fairly subdued, and everything that isn't either very fresh or priced ahead of the market is like a tomb.

pkiracofe: Twitter is a useful tool, but for parents pushing a stroller to a couple of promising properties on a Sunday afternoon, changing plans in response to a real-time feed is more difficult than you seem to think. Also, the wire would get jammed with junk marketing.

"You know, not to be too picky here, but I really think you meant 1 > 0."

In the normal world yes, but in the New Math of Manhattan real estate....

>>Squid - which open house did you go to that is at fire sale levels?<<

315 W 106. I think it'll trade even lower when all is said and done.

> For the past two weekends, for example, roughly 22 people have stopped by The Fairfield

Are they really noting 22 people over an entire weekend as well-attended?

"If you are meaning to buy but staying on the sidelines waiting for a crash, you might be wasting your time. I know several owners and sellers who are not budging on their prices and would just like you, wait it out."

ROTFL.

Funny, this exact thing was said a year ago. It was clearly wrong then, sounds pretty darn wrong now, too.

> Best time to buy is now when you have choices, you can negotiate hard and the brokers treat you like
> royalty.

And who ways there won't be even more choices tomorrow? And even more brokers kissing ass?

> When the market recovers, the experience wont be as pleasant.

Sure, 2014 will look very different.

That doesn't mean you buy while the market is still dropping. Its the first inning.

> As you watch your twitterfeed, you would know whether to skip listings on your target list, or to get their quickly.

Right, just in case a bid is accepted within the hour!

What idiot buys on the basis of other people being interested?

> Best time to buy is now when you have choices, you can negotiate hard and the brokers treat you like royalty. When the market recovers, the experience wont be as pleasant.

Anyone who pushes the 'experience' of buying that far up their priority list is costing themselves money.

I have no problem engaging in a tough negotiation if it correlates with greater assurance that market is at a bottom.

There are any number of indicators we can look to for clues of an impending upturn. None have happened yet. Until then, it's momentum down.

There were plenty of planted postings about "increased traffic" in January - didn't help the market much next 2 months. When there are more tangible bits of better news, I'm sure we'll hear about it quick. "Increased traffic" is not a tangible bit of good news.

>>"Increased traffic" is not a tangible bit of good news.<<

Could not agree more. Unless that increased traffic translates to accepted offers, contracts and sales, it's irrelevant.

Perhaps the increased traffic are all the people who want to see how bad things are.

Like folks who slow down to watch an accident.

Last I checked, prices still dropping off a cliff, and sales volume still a trickle.

I'd be curious to know what percent of the people at open houses are actually in a position to buy. I've been going to open houses for over a year now with the intention of buying something, but I only started calling banks and crunching the nubmers for a mortgage in the last 3 months. Now i realize that when i was looking a year ago, i wasn't really in a position to comfortable afford the places i was looking at. Based on the math that I run, you need to have about 40-50% of the purchase price in cash and equivalents to really be a serious buyer (when i first started looking, i assumed 20% down which meant only 25-30% liquid was good enough).

Do others agree and did they also figure this out way after they started shopping around?

Hey, I expect to be a buyer sometime around the end of 2010 based upon my market expectations.

However, I still go to open houses. They're fun. And I learn a good deal.

(Then on to a nice brunch.)

Okay, totally off topic. I just don't 'get' Twitter.

gutterballs: It would indeed be helpful to know who really intends to buy. It would also be helpful to know how many people attended open houses for several months waiting for prices to adjust to a reasonable level and ultimately gave up and decided to rent for another year. I know more of those than OH attendees who actually bought in the last 9 months.

Topper..."Hey, I expect to be a buyer sometime around the end of 2010 based upon my market expectations"

another wannabee market timer..thinks he knows something the rest of the world doesn't.

I have seen a bunch of properties pulled off the market in the last 2 weeks. Not sure why - maybe sellers refusing to lower prices more, and giving up? Where does that lead?

newbuyer,

sometimes people yank their properties off the market because prices have declined to the point where they no longer want to sell. sometimes they pull them temporarily to switch brokers or because they have become stale, and put them back on. who knows? what i can guarantee you is that in a bear market there will always be more than enough people who want to sell apartments to maintain a healthy inventory. don't forget, inventory is continuing to go up despite these small counter-trends.

I bet the first time there's a little bit of promising upward movement in prices (which I don't think will be very soon anyway), inventory will surge as waiting-it-out would-be sellers step in, causing another big downward surge in prices that will last for a good while. Puxatawney Phil?

At best I am just hoping to see the markets stabilize and in my opinion the Manhattan markets have not come down enough. We are seeing some pricing coming in-line with current market conditions/expectations. But overall I would say there is still a big disconnect between sellers and the current economic conditions. There is also a disconnect with former sellers now trying rent out their apartments.

I speak with about 20 people a week and most are filled with uncertainty about their jobs, income and future in general. On the rental side of things I'm quite busy, but that is mostly thanks to a healthy referral biz and the reluctance of many to buy. I have been successful in reaching these clients and my business model has appealed to them.

Every broker I know tells me business is very slow, sellers are not getting it and when offers do come in most are met with scorn. Many people are also making offers and don't seem to always be willing to follow through. There are also many sellers that have listed their properties at unrealistic price points, that don't really need or want to sell-unless their delusional price gets hit. These are sellers who know things are not good and are willing to cash out at a price point near 2008. But scoff at offers based on 2005-2006 price points. It is a strange marketplace indeed with all sorts of "players".

Many brokers take on these listings to maintain their relationship with the client. few are giving the sellers the truth about the market. I have not taken two listings because the sellers were "delusional" and I just don't have time to waste...or money to waste. Many of the big firms have also cut back on their advertising budgets or are consolidating ads to save money.

I don't want to be "negative", but "today" things are bad and I believe will remain this way for at least the next year. We still have a number of hurdles to get over from job losses to frozen credit markets. And perhaps the biggest hurdle, the psychological trauma of the public, from all the failures to the erosion of their property value and savings accounts.So far the good news is like a bubble on the surface of the ocean.

Let's all hope for a speedy and healthy recovery and get away from the boom to bubble culture. Steady like the moon is better than a shooting star, though not quite as exciting.

In the meantime you can read my new blog www.NYCRentRant.blogspot.com

Let's all hope for a speedy and healthy recovery and get away from the boom to bubble culture. Steady like the moon is better than a shooting star, though not quite as exciting.

we're getting there burke

Absolutely. Recovery we will need, and recovery we'll have. We'll get back to normal, might take 3-4-5 years.

Of course, "normal" will still mean prices at 30-40% below where they were in the bubble.

nyc..Of course, "normal" will still mean prices at 30-40% below where they were in the bubble

never happen only in your dreams man.

Prices for my condo studios have been flat since early 2008. Transaction activity dried up last year but is now beginning again plus we are most likely looking at a 2nd H-1Q 2010 economic recovery. Banks are full of cash and sideline buyers have been waiting a long time.

> never happen only in your dreams man.

Steve, uh... wake up. It already did. Manhattan co-op median down 28% (and that is the majority of apartments in this town.

Sorry to wake you from your slumber, but its offer.

And this $250k salary cap thing? Thats the nail in the coffin.

Sorry you missed it, but the crash is in.

sorry... "but its OVER"

BTW, Steve, didn't you say "in your dreams" about 10% down? and 20% down. and... well, pretty much every 5 minutes for the last year through record declines?

Apparently the crowd of people at these things are just folks looking for work as brokers (or apartment cleaners).

nyc10022 says sorry... "but its OVER

that is the most ridiculous statement I have ever heard.

Why do I waste time with your nonsense? i ask myself as i type this. I guess it's b/c you're such an idiot that i am compelled to destroy your pathetic arguments. I normally don't result to putdowns but you really worked hard to earn them.