Most dangerous neighborhoods

Thanks for the link. Very interesting.

Interesting link. I live in the Hamilton Heights section of Harlem and you can clearly see the dramatic difference between the murders in the area in 2006 to present. I moved here in 2006, and it was still pretty rough. Last year was the first year things seem to change dramatically. I am not saying there is no more crime here anymore- but the chart does confirm what I see first hand. Last year there was only 3 murders in the neighborhood. This year there has only been 1.

Also, consider density. Upper Manhattan and Brooklyn are probably worse than they appear because I believe you are talking fewer people in them over the course of the day as compared to say midtown or downtown.

"Also, consider density. Upper Manhattan and Brooklyn are probably worse than they appear because I believe you are talking fewer people in them over the course of the day as compared to say midtown or downtown."

True, but that's only really useful if you're trying to determine per capita crime rates. Those can be useful too, but more murders is still more murders. From a practical perspective, I'm not sure you'd be thinking more along the lines of per capita.

From a practical perspective, you absolutely have to think per capita... its sort of backward not to.
Per capita is a proxy for likelihood (better if tied to people in neighborhood, not just residents).

Camden New Jersey has fewer murders than NYC, but nobody's calling that safer because the numbers is fewer. If a neighborhood has 10x as many people but 2x the murders, its complely unpractical to go for the smaller neighborhood.

I was the one with those threads, and EVERYONE who complies crime stats does them per capita, its idiotic not to. I also did not say all of harlem had lower crime rates, I said the FBI said that 10027 (where I lived) and 10029 &10035 (the east harlem hoods in those debates) were safer than 10011, 10012, and many other hip zips in Soho, WV, Meatpacking, etc. On a per capita basis, the FBI says you are more likely to be a victim of most types of crime including murder in those areas, as can be found in nyt real estate section neighborhood stats, where one can search by zip.

But I also said that there WERE zips in upper Manhattan that had very high crime rates, but that the three in question were not them. My point being that people who feel "safe" in the meatpacking district are actually less safe than they woudl be at 116th and lennox.

I've been posting those stats and making those same points here for a couple years, and I'd never seen cognitive dissonance kick in harder and faster.

of course, I'll also rehash my argument being... much of the crime can come from bar scenes, and all that. I'd expect a place like meatpacking to have crime from the huge number of establishments relative to housing, and less so in more residential neighborhoods.

In practical terms, I'd care more about the daytime crime if I'm not a night person, lets say.
I remember something about a truck stop on 5 in CA being the highest crime area anywhere..... because you get a murder or two and the population is 100. Of course, the murders are from visiting truckers and whatever at the truck stop, and if you're not at the truck stop...

So, per capita is good, as in likelihood of a person being a victim of a crime.

But to translate that into likelihood of YOU being caught, it would be nice if there was a deeper measurement.

"Camden New Jersey has fewer murders than NYC, but nobody's calling that safer because the numbers is fewer. If a neighborhood has 10x as many people but 2x the murders, its complely unpractical to go for the smaller neighborhood."

I agree, when looking at another city, no question per capita is the only legit comparison. But if you're talking within the same city, there is something to be gleaned by raw numbers. You'd want to avoid spending too much time in neighborhoods where the actual murder total was high, even though, per capita, for whatever reasons, it didn't appear as bad as another area.

Same city, different cities, it doesn't matter.

Absolute numbers without regard to population is meaningless data. Changing the example doesn't change the logic.

If you want to do it per square mile, ok maybe. But doing raw with no regard to size is just a mistake. Doesn't matter if you are comparing two cities or two neighborhoods or two countries. Ignore size, and the data doesn't mean anything.

Most dangerous place for young women in Manhattan is East 78th street between 2nd and York.
It's the push-in robbery capital if NY.

falcogold1, I've lived on this stretch of E 78th for four years and have never heard of any problems like this; more information please for my own peace of mind...?

I think its funny that people go to dinner and to bards and clubs in high-crime places all the time but wonder how people can possibly live in lower crime areas that happen to be mostly blackand hispanic.

otokomae,
This is my neighborhood also and that street has a long series of walk-ups with no doormen on the block.
It's dark and their are lot's of places to hide. It's close to the subway but, it's not the subway block. Call the 19th and ask, they will tell you stright out to watch your back on the block. The criminals wait until you put your key in the door and then come up from behind and 'push-in'. In the early 90's there where several rapes making use of the same entry technique.

I live with my family near by and we always stay alert at night on those blocks.

bards and blackened hispanics? Lemme guess -- Othello, El Barrio production, right?

Murders in East Harlem (aka 23rd Precinct: http://nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs023pct.pdf) are all crime or drug related. They are not muggings, stick ups or street rapes. They are the scum of the earth taking each other out.

financial district is bad

Glamma, I have absolutely nothing to base this on but my theory on the financial district is that there are a lot of young people from out of town there (by which I mean non-metro area not just city) who only know the New York of the 21st Century and have absolutely ZERO street smarts. I'm not saying paranoid planning ala the 70s and 80s remains appropriate but come on, returning home shit faced drunk on a deserted street is an just TOO tempting to a low life. And yes, New York is now the safest big city and we've come a long way but out of 9 million people, I assure there are still a few low lifes.

On the other hand, without turning this into one of the econ-political threads, as horrible as mugging etc is, I'm not sure its the worst crime being perpetuated in the financial district over the past few years.

Of course, there aren't a lot of projects downtown, some moderate income, but nothing full on project until you get above the brooklyn bridge (which is also near police plaza).

Of course "deserted" is another kind of problem. Where feeling safe is tough, and you might be "botherered" if not actually becoming a victim of crime. And if you're the only one around to be bothered...

The sad reality is that the category of people that fear the most living in a neighborhood with a high crime rate are the Whites when in reality, they are the population the least at risk to be mugged or murdered.
Most homicides target minorities (Black's & Latino's) and commited mostly by the same minorities.

That's not necessarily true. Back in the bad old days there was a strong (and justified) fear of crime in the African American community as since they were overwhelmingly more likely to be victims (even excluding the gansta vs gangsta stuff). I remember in 1987 my admin turning down a beautiful, cheap apartment in Fort Greene because she would have had to walk to through the projects to get to the subway (which the--white--landlord said "shouldn't be a problem for you". No comment.) I think crime and safety is an issue for anybody--especially middle class people--who move to "transitional" neighborhoods, regardless of race but when they begin becoming part of the area they find out whats safe and what is sketchy.

> they are the population the least at risk to be mugged or murdered.

Only because there are less of them, or they on the fringes of the neighborhoods being looked at.

But, as lizyank inferred, try being the one white guy walking through bad projects. See what the "rates" look like then...

somewhereelse, I researched this subject a bit and the reason is not that that there are more blacks. Gang rivalry and drug deals gone bad
seem to be the cause behind most of the murders. Other crimes seem to be more color-blind, but still, there are very, very few crimes suffered by whites in Harlem. Nevertheless, last week a white man was robbed in 12Oth at Lenox, so, yes, it can happen.

Glad this old thread showed up again as I never saw the reply to my question regarding crime on E78th...thanks for the info, falcogold1!

There were fewer than 100 stranger murders in NYC last year. Per capita that is just unbelievable. And unlike many other types of crime stats, homicide stats don't lie and can't be knocked down to lower crimes which is why homicides are usually the first stat talked about in terms of crime going up or down. A body is a body. For a city that is 1MM people larger than NYC was 20 years ago, there are 80% fewer murders. That is, from a high of 2200+ to under 500 now. And like I said, the odds of you being killed by someone you know are 4 times higher than by a stranger. NYC truly is an astoundingly safe city.

And for all the doomsdayers who predicted crazy crime rates in 2008, a year and a half later we don't see it.

My first apartment was around the corner from East 78th between 1st and 2nd and it's a block with no high rise buildings. I used to go to Orwashers when it opened at 7am and it's not a great block to walk along on your own early in the morning when it's dark in the winter. I hadn't realized that there were so many push-in robberies on that block, but it makes sense having walked along it many times.

I believe we are talking about the 19th Precinct. NYPD crime stats for 2009 do reveal a troubling significant increase in robberies and burglaries in the precinct. It is the kind of spike that the NYPD takes very seriously and the precinct commander is doubtless under enormous pressure to address the condition asap. If he fails to, he'll lose his command if that hasn't happened already.

Kylewest, here's what I learned by poking around the NY Times interactive homocide doo-dad. Rule #1 of not getting murdered: don't have acquaintances who are prone to committing murder. Rule #2: don't get into arguments with strangers. Rule #3: don't get into arguments with acquaintances who are prone to committing murder.

Something like 1 in 10 homocides were for "unknown" or "stranger with no argument" reasons.

Correct. The people who pose the greatest danger to you in virtually all crime categories are people you already know. I guess the lesson is surround yourself with strangers are you are 90% more safe than when you are at Thanksgiving dinner with your family.

The most dangerous neighborhood? My mind. Don't move into my head.

Thanksgivings are known for heated family arguments around the table. To play it safe from now on, how's about you and me swap places this year just to play it safe? "Sorry hon, I can't stay for the turkey, but inonada will be here in my place. Trust me, it's for everyone's safety. I met him online, just don't argue with anything he says."