Roubini Now Says The Worst Of Economic Crisis Is Over

if its an about face, why do we need a 250Bln 2nd stimulus?

Over the worst part doesn't mean out of the woods and steadily recovering. Although, over the worst part is some good news. I wonder if he smiled when he said that or if he looked serious and brooding like in his picture.

It's an about face because late last year/early this year he was calling this to be worse than the '29 depression. He was putting ALOT of fear out there. Well he was wrong just like those other fear- monger economist bozos out there. I wish CNBC would list them all out. Make them accountable.

Ha!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=az9k8d_f_xn8

"July 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose for a fourth day as economist Nouriel Roubini said the worst of the financial crisis is over and the recession will end this year, while takeover speculation lifted commodity shares."

He was wrong. A few of us here were right...
Good job stevef, juice-man and ericho75.

*pat* *pat* in the back.

its impossible to be right all the time. he was way ore right than many at a very early stage, so naturally, his voice was listened to. he did come out and shoot down this rally a few times though in the past few months, saying it was a suckers rally and that huge pain was coming. so this is quite a change.

Now, let's see if housing in NYC can catch a bit of this recovery fever. We'll know by Q1 & Q2 of 2010.

"He was wrong. A few of us here were right... "

ha, love it ericho. you should be on cnbc

"It's an about face because late last year/early this year he was calling this to be worse than the '29 depression. He was putting ALOT of fear out there. Well he was wrong just like those other fear- monger economist bozos out there. I wish CNBC would list them all out. Make them accountable."

steveF has a point here. Roubini claimed the world was ending and we were going to enter something worse than the great depression. Now he comes out and says, "the worst is over". That means, he was dead wrong.

"ha, love it ericho. you should be on cnbc"

I'm just having a little fun.

Tom Keene of Bloomberg practically worships the guy. I hope he does a piece on this tomorrow am.

ericho75 says >He was wrong. A few of us here were right...
Good job stevef, juice-man and ericho75<

DAMN RIGHT ericho75

what makes you think he's right this time ?

Posted 2 months ago...Bears please eat crow.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/11252-more-signs-of-a-bottom

"The 7 year auction went very well today. There's tons of money out there, the 10 year notes are being sold because folks are rotating into equity. It really is that simple. Here's more...

1) Oil at 64 bucks now...new highs on the move. How's that possible with a global deflation?
2) Agriculture stocks are all going bonkers. Check out POT (the ticker symbol)!!!!
3) All commodities are rock'n!
4) After a 11 week runup in stocks, stocks are barely pulling back.
5) Junk bonds are UP over 1,500 basis points from their lows!!! (signs of improving business)
6) Jobless claims, unemployment data, durable goods, etc. etc. all came in BETTER than expected.
7) The dry baltic index have been rock'n. Why are shipping rates going up if things are dead????!?!??!
8) 90% of economist think the economy will start recovery this year.
9) Prof. Roubini sees a recovery too later on this year.
10) New and Existing home sales all came in better then expected."

I think some people are born contrarians. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong, but they'll always say/do exactly the opposite of the "mainstream."

that the worst is over? govt data, money into equities, VIX, ted spread...etc

another great thread...hmm i owe stevejhx an answer on that other one. i know he's reading this one.

More goodies from Mr. Jericho

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/11380-stabilization-in-retail-now-too-sears-earnings

"Explain how the high end restaurant chains are also doing well over the past 6 months?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=PFCB,%20cake
If things are really as bad as all these knuckleheads are saying, then why are folks eating out in PF Chang and Cheese Cake factories?"

"And what about the recent recovery in the Baltic Exchange Dry Index?
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Why are rates for shipping goods from overseas now rising?"

"w67thStreet,
Who's the bull? I'm your father bear here. I'm just seeing light at the end of the tunnel.
You on the other hand has his/her eyes wide shut."

"Explain why Silver and Gold prices are up 100% from the lows?
Explain why Gold is 6% from the all time highs?
Explain why the dollar is starting to lose it's lust again?
Explain how oil"

ericho75 , i'm watching your back bro, when the bears swoop in i'm watching. but you kick a$s so i am unneeded. besides the bears are dwindling.
keep posting!!!

on a funnier note...I love family guy. It's up for an award too. great stuff.

"He was wrong. A few of us here were right...
> Good job stevef, juice-man

Hmmm... lets see... the guy who said manhattan prices would rise with a stampede 18 months ago.

whoops.

And the guy who said. "2004 prices, never gonna happen".

double whoops.

Yes, pat yourselves on the back. You were 100% wrong!

SteveF, we've done a great job educating others and spreading the words.

(and, I don't know what ericho predicted, was he here long enough for that?).

It is funny when the guys who got it most wrong go for bows...

"what makes you think he's right this time ?"

Who said he was right this time? Point is, he was one of the loudest and now, he is essentially admitting how wrong he was. It is fun to watch.

Actually, you guys should be bowing to me.

I'm on record saying buy stocks, and sell RE.

Now kiss my ring...

ericho75....it's been a pleasure. Noah still calling for the W? Don't get fresh now. I now love IBM!!!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31945067

Juiceman, you are the longest bull on these boards. I salute you. I read everything you post. I've learned much.

"ericho75....it's been a pleasure. Noah still calling for the W? Don't get fresh now. I now love IBM!!!!!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31945067"

We did..he missed it. Equity overshoot by a few hundred points, but corporate notes didn't.
Noah, here's your W.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHIAX#symbol=SHIAX;range=2y

"Juiceman, you are the longest bull on these boards. I salute you. I read everything you post. I've learned much."

Ah, now I get where you got your expertise in being wrong.

Few are better than you!

yes, double dip. did you hear ron insana 20 min ago..i think he nailed what is going to happen. the news is prob going to be refreshing for a few quarters in comparison to what we went through and from all stimulus. if the dip comes, Ill know you, stevef, were not in that camp

love it, so according to you guys, we had the W already and are now in the GROW FROM THIS POINT ON part! yay!

Funny that CNBC doesn't have the actual quote where he says "the worst is over." What the article says, in their words, is "he also signaled that the crisis may not get any worse, Reuters reported." May not?

What was also attributed to him (some are direct quotes):

-Last month, he told CNBC Europe that the rise in oil prices and interest rates could suppress a budding recovery.

-"I see even the risk of a double-dip, W-shaped recession… towards the end of next year," Roubini said.

-"Oil could be closer to $100 a barrel towards the end of this year, this could be a negative shock to the economy," he said, adding that other dangers come from long-term interest rates and big budget deficits.

-In the next few months, unemployment may reach 11 percent in the US and around 10 percent in Europe.

-Because of bad macroeconomic data and poor earnings prospects as companies have weak pricing power and demand is still subdued, the surprises will be on the downside, he told CNBC in June.

-"That's why I believe there's going to be a significant market correction for equities, for commodities and even for credit," Roubini added.

-He said recovery signs should come from unemployment, housing, industrial production, sales and consumption data.

Oh, wait, recovery signs from housing?

-"When I look at them I see so far still more yellow weeds than green shoots. They have to bottom out, in my view they haven't bottomed out. This recovery, unfortunately, because of the debt overhang… is going to be a very weak economic recovery, in my view," he added.

So he expects a very weak recovery with the possibility of a double-dip recession and housing having further to fall (of course Manhattan lags the national market). How is this anything but negative for NYC RE?

Thats it...i think its finally time to buy in nyc.....

tenemental STOP THAT! You will ruin steveF and erichos moment. no need to look into what he said, only that he switched and ericho was right from the very beginning about everything...oops, I mean from 2 months ago, after a 60% plunge in equities, he called the rally! ballzy, if you ask me.

No offense, but you people really disgust me with all the self-congratulatory ego-stroking smug posts. I'm done posting on this board forever. It's a waste of time. No doubt if I come back in a year all of you will be still here posting the same nonsense - all of you think you are Paul Krugman or something. It's pathetic. Goodbye and good riddance.

that's right Noah and you know I've been calling blue skys during those dark days. great thread.

where's stevejhx? i know he's dyin to post. this thread has his name written all over it.

BUY MANHATTAN!!! people on this board need more equity!

"oops, I mean from 2 months ago, after a 60% plunge in equities, he called the rally! ballzy, if you ask me."

3 months...

Noah you're getting fresh... :)

buy buy buy !!! roubini changes! buy! buy more than you can afford, prices will surge! buy! ibm beats! buy by buy!

BS, did you just say something? just kidding. you will never leave. go home and relax. be open minded. it's all good.

GOOGLE NAILS IT

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10545339/1/google-nails-it.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Manhattan real estate set to fly on google reports of more clicks

Sorry digs, didn't mean to spoil their fun.

Oh, of course I did.

It's an almost entirely negative article with a positive headline that he didn't even say. Talk about biased journalism.

this is fun...pass the kool-aid, jobu needs a refill! i like this game.

i know, im playing the game now myself.

It is addictive, Noah.

Its pretty funny some of the wacky claims guys like SteveF make, its hard not to respond. But when they take bows for getting it wrong... now THAT takes an extra special idiot.

ur boy roubini is moon walkin on what he said already...lol

> Manhattan real estate set to fly on google reports of more clicks

ROTFL

digs, you Roubini loving fool! The guy was selling fear and now he is selling something else. He is a shill, no better than the rest of the professional prognosticators. Let us enjoy his plight and relish in his phoniness.

"Juiceman, you are the longest bull on these boards. I salute you. I read everything you post. I've learned much."

Thanks steveF

"No offense, but you people really disgust me with all the self-congratulatory ego-stroking smug posts. I'm done posting on this board forever. It's a waste of time. No doubt if I come back in a year all of you will be still here posting the same nonsense - all of you think you are Paul Krugman or something. It's pathetic. Goodbye and good riddance."

LMAO! BSex needs medication, he cracks me up.

its more than fine by me Juice! relish away. roubini was a little doomy for me too

The fireman finishes extiguishing a massive blaze that burns the building to the ground and turns to the owner of the property and says the worst is over. The worst of the fire is not the worst of you experiences. Dr. Doom thinks the fire might have calmed. Hope the wind doesn't pick up.

First financial...now technology.

IBM blew away earnings and raised full year estimates.

"http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ibm-sees-profit-rise12-raises-full-year-outlook?siteid=yhoof"

so...lets see sales are down but profits will be up. guess how they do that? yep, more people unemployed.

You forgot to mentioned, they raised guidance for the full year.

The people that were let go might have a shot of coming back.

huh? I said "sales are down but profits will be up." Doesn't that mean they raised guidance for the full year?

what are you basing your statement on the people having a shot of coming back?

As demand picks up, it's normal for businesses to hire more people to satisfy or service the demand. Business 101?

Roubini's thoughts on the media's spin:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

Jul 16, 2009
“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over 'this year' and that I have 'improved' my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus is that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year. On one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long-term interest rates (because of concerns about medium-term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation), thus leading to a crowding out of private demand.

“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector. Now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak. I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such a large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy. But as I have consistently argued, the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double-dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

perfect end to the day.

ericho: i get it. but can you at least agree that demand has not picked up?

"ericho: i get it. but can you at least agree that demand has not picked up?"

Hard to say, they raise per share estimates. I can't see how this could be done without 'some' demand coming back.

"Hard to say, they raise per share estimates. I can't see how this could be done without 'some' demand coming back."

thats becuase you dont know how EPS is calculated and how changes in the components besides sales can cause huge changes in net income. but hey you can read candlesticks, a much more complex concept. flame on

Why is it that every time I read an ericho post I get the feeling that it was written by a pimply faced 19 year old college freshman who just completed his first economics course and decided to open a Fidelity account?

does this mean real estate prices will never go down???

BSex...angry dude.
from each according to their abilities, to each according to their needs.
We got the stupidity, now lets get this guy laid!

buy now or be priced out forever

Hey can mutumbonyc come on and say "buy now or be priced out forever" and maybe stevejhx and nyc10022 can echo it too. That would be really funny.

'cept now we'll all be taxed to death, so much for recovery

"thats becuase you dont know how EPS is calculated and how changes in the components besides sales can cause huge changes in net income. but hey you can read candlesticks, a much more complex concept. flame on"

Lol...i know full well how it can. You folks are all ASSuming they are cutting cost to get the higher profits. They did this quarter, but how do you know they will next quarter?

"Why is it that every time I read an ericho post I get the feeling that it was written by a pimply faced 19 year old college freshman who just completed his first economics course and decided to open a Fidelity account?"

I'm probably older than you my friend.

how about the pimples though?

Roubini is a pandering shill

Re: I'm probably older...

And that's why it's so sad ;-)

ericho and steve: i will quote Bugs Bunny here: what a couple of maroons! because roubini is less bearish NOW you claim this supports your permabull status all these past months. trillion of dollars of wealth has been destroyed in less than a year! my image of you guys is circular-you have your respective heads up each others a@s!. of course this crisis will end and you will be eventually proven "right". in the meantime me thinks you have lost your shirts in the stock market and with any RE holdings you may have. oh one more thing about pundits and their calls: they are almost always wrong but who ever remembers their calls unless they nail one? and if they do nail a call they are usually never right again. remember Elaine Garzarelli? she called the "87 crash but didn't make one correct market call after that.

Cfranch,
I was short Sep. ES at 940 and rode it down to 872...went long at the double bottom at 870 when it successfully retested 865 on Monday. I did exactly what i said the market was going to do....
You on the other hand had no idea.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/12135-stock-market-looking-ill

You still long short bond and short equity i assume?

I posted this 4 weeks ago....

"Sorry, very busy today.
Sideways trading over the next few weeks. Expect S&P 880 then off to the races. S&P 1,000 by year end.
Mark this post.
Thank me later, and please stop talking behind my back. I'm watching you..."

Roubini issued a clarification saying that he was taken out of context.

In the case of the CNBC article that started this thread, the clarification wasn't even necessary. The only thing positive in it was the title, and they made that up.

Huh, just clicked the link in the OP and they've changed it to the clarification article, not the article we were talking about earlier. Many of the things I noted above are from this article dated 6/22:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31482098/

They sure do a lot of recycling at CNBC. I bet they got some shit for their, ahem, recontextualization of Roubini's comments and pulled the article.

*yawn*

I love good news but these "[insert name] says worst of is recession over" declarations are getting a bit tiring and pointless.

worst of recession is over*

The worst of the recession will be over when SteveF finally sells his crappy properties and leaves the Streeteasy boards.

SteveF - how are those apartments moving? Are they flying off the shelves? Or are you still hemorrhaging cash on a monthly basis?

Hard times are ahead. . .especially in NYC. Job losses. Loss of services. Inflation. The real estate market continues downward for at least two more years before it stabilizes. It climbs up around 2012. We've got a long haul ahead of us. Be prepared.

"Inflation. The real estate market continues downward for at least two more years before it stabilizes."

There's no way you can have inflation and lower property prices.

This one's for the bulls:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iImdVWULYKE&eurl=http://market-ticker.denninger.net/&feature=player_embedded

steveF/ericho - here, try educating yourselves and then you can come here and make solid arguments with your own thoughts, and not just recite a headline after housing as plummeted and stocks have plummeted yet started to bounce

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/housing-sticky-prices.html

understand what drove the bubble, what happened since, and where we are now...house prices are sticky! Every time activity picks up, you hear brokers/executives/bulls talk about bottoms and recoveries. Ironically, these are the same voices that underestimated and didnt fully understand the credit crisis and said Manhattan can never go down, and if it does, sideline buyers will swoop in putting a floor on how much it can fall. Yes, those arguments were made ad nauseum! Keep in mind, foreclosure activity is about 37% of all existing resales right now, and pipeline foreclosures (excluding short sales) are at record levels.

and yes, tenemental was right and Roubini had to issue another statement because headline was OUT OF CONTEXT! You know, the basis for this whole thread

Nouriel Roubini
Jul 16, 2009

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over ‘this year’ and that I have ‘improved’ my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/cnbc-vs-denninger-vs-roubini/

After my commute to work, housing isn't the only thing that is sticky.

I knew this sucker would be on top. good morning all.

BAC and C ringed up big profits for Q2...

It was taken out of context a bit but he did say he see the 'recession' ending this year. He did not refute this.

but there is no new news (at least from him).

Yes Ericho, but did you also notice Harley Davidson and GE?

They are much better indicators of the state of the economy than the numbers (laced with tax payer dollars) put out by BAC and C.

Juiceman - your face?

"BAC and C ringed up big profits for Q2..."

and you are surprised by this?

"There's no way you can have inflation and lower property prices."

Ericho, do you understand the fundamental building blocks of economics and the markets? I don't ask that with any sarcasm. The reason I ask is that we had moderate inflation from 2000 to 2006 during the time when house prices grew far in excess of that inflation level. the long term rate of growth, over say the last hundred years, of real estate prices (up until about 2000 or so) was at the overall rate of inflation. it is precisely because housing prices grew far in excess of that level that we are now seeing house price declines DESPITE the fact that we still have had inflation since 2006. Inflation and house prices can decouple because the inflation component of housing is owner's equivalent rent, which is NOT home prices.

So WTF happened since home prices peaked in 2006 in your understanding of the world? We have had inflation during that period. CPI excl food and energy has grown at an annual rate at about 2.3% from June 06 to June 09. And yet, as you know home prices nationwide have fallen about 30%+ since then.

A wise man once said to me "everytime you open your mouth, you're either gaining credibility or losing it"...

ericho/stevef - SPIN THIS!

http://www.comptroller.nyc.gov/press/2009_releases/st09-07-077.shtm

New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr. issued the following statement regarding the June job-loss numbers released today by the New York State Department of Labor showing that the June unemployment rate for New York City was 9.5%:

“As I stated earlier this week, New York City was expected to see an unemployment rate as high as 9.5 percent before our City pulled out of this recession. The fact that we have already reached that mark is a worrisome indicator that the rate may climb as time passes, and a tell-tale sign that we are still very much in the midst of an economic downturn not seen in more than a generation.

Harley Davidson?
GE, i understand..but Harley Davidson is a producer of luxury goods.
The thing is, earnings are coming in substantially better than last quarter for most of the companies that have reported. Give it time...things don't turn on a dime.

"There's no way you can have inflation and lower property prices."

SpecialK dont even bother - he doesnt get it. He doesnt get the likely inflation that we will get from this mess and how it will squeeze consumers/businesses. CPI is known to understate inflation in boom times, and overstate it in bust times. Mish covers this well.

Ericho bought an apt a few months ago, and since has been a cheerleader for recovery. Simply talking his book, so to speak. When he made his bid, the broker told me his exact words..."I am only bidding this because the economy is in free fall and this property is not worth what the seller wants and there is too much uncertainty and negative news to come"

When he closed, he said this..."worst is over, all up from here".

Special K: ericho slept through that class last semester

Special_K,

The housing decline did not start in 2006. It started in 2007 and as of today, the linkage between housing and inflation/deflation continues so i'm not sure what you are talking about in regards to a decoupling. Deflation is still in play, but there are signs that the tide 'might' be turning.

LOL.....
Can you name any instances over the past 100 years where we have big inflationary numbers with housing in a deflationary mode? Please.....someone?

"The housing decline did not start in 2006. It started in 2007"

UMM, no! For most parts of this country, the peak was mid 2005 or so. By 2006, most markets were already in freefall. Wow, you really just are uneducated on a number of topics.

And let me ask you, do you know what deflation is? How would you define it? But first, quickly, go google it and copy a definition! Do you really expect 18 months of deflation and thats it after decades of excess, and a parabolic credit boom that ended up taking out WaMu, Countrywide, Bear, Lehman, Wachovia, and a host of other huge companies...18 months and there are signs the tide is turning.

Know think for 1 min, why is the tide turning? Is it natural markets that are fundamentally getting better with a solid infrastructure for future growth underneath? Or is it the stimulus, which we all know is temporary and not sustianable and has its own unintended consequences that are yet to come.

stop talking