Corcoran: Buyer's market wanes

I hear Dubai changed name to dusell. ( thk you Stewart!!!!)

You know if Dusell starts trading at $500psf maybe I'll move there. I hear woods is gonna move there with his harem, a country where Erin just be one of many Swedish bikini nanny cum 'wife'.

pork chops or mutton chops.

I thought this one was below steveF's standards. A real steveF post has much more mindless shilling for the market than this article. I mean, the boneheads at Corcoran not only admit that it's possible that the market might not go straight up from here (who ever imagine that this was possible?), they actually end the article on this thought. That's basically treasonous. I'd be worried about being kicked out of REBNY if I were them.

steveF frequently only reads the titles of the articles he posts.

but treasonous indeed.

in your face dude...

The new development market is also starting to see inventory drop as the supply of new projects dries up.

"All construction came to a screeching halt over 18 months ago," Sukenik said.

New development sales have gotten an additional boost from international buyers -- often armed with cash -- who are showing a renewed interest in the city, prompted by low prices.

"The volume of foreign buyers is growing at the moment," said James Cox Jr., the director of sales and marketing at One York Street condos. "It seems the value of the dollar and the market prices are attracting a lot of interest in New York City, and real estate opportunities."

""Neither buyers nor sellers have an obvious upper hand over each other right now," said Ric Swezey, a senior associate at the Corcoran Group."

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

isn't this the crux of the article:

There's one major caveat to all of this: Unlike in the boom, overpriced homes simply don't sell.

"This is a market where proper pricing brings results," Wohlfarth said. "Those apartments that are well-priced for today's market, not those idealized 'magical thinking' asking prices, are the ones that sell, frequently within a matter of weeks."

There is dumb.

Then there is so dumb, you need to quote other dumb people.

Corcoran anecdotes as your source. Reall, SteveF?

We knew you were dumb, but this really takes the cake...

- If it were true that prices nominally stabilize, then that means we are bottoming at still very bubbly prices that make no fundamental sense, which are out of whack with renting costs, which are still way higher than just a few years ago.

- Several finance firms announcing major lay-offs this week...

""All construction came to a screeching halt over 18 months ago," Sukenik said. "

YGBFKM

Yes - "screeching halt"! That's why there are so many skeletons of buildings out there. It's a veritable Ghost Town.

Read the NY Times real estate section from 1988. Shades of deja vu all over again.

Steve remember the credit crisis started in July 07. No construction for 2 1/2 years. So no inventory now. They'll start building again soon and you'll get some more inventory in 2012.

i echo 30yrs. YGBFKM.

After a heavily marketed auction, REDC announces that all 54 units are still for available at The Solaria at "make an offer" pricing. I am confused as to which market is "waning".

> So no inventory now.

Wow, just when you think SteveF can't get any dumber.

Miller JUST noted that 7,000 new apartments are going to hit the market in Manhattan soon.

Not to mention, those, uh, unsold ones. They don't disappear just because noone bought them for a year.

Somewhereelse - can you please provide a link to the Miller article about upcoming inventory? Not denying it, but haven't seen it. I check the inventory numbers on UD daily and the trend according to that is certainly down; around 8,800 today from a peak of over 11,000. I still see downward pressure based on the fundamentals but have found the resiliency of the city to be quite astonishing given all that's happened.

I did see this interesting article on MS's site: http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=6554. Direct link to chart here: http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1259678207sPYKL&Record=3. Not surprisingly, absorption rates, particularly at the high end are well above historical highs which should continue to put downward pressure on prices. For co-ops uptown below a million, however, absorption rates are near or below the historical average.

i've seen numbers as high as 22000 units if one includes those currently under construction but not yet ready for sale, but i couldn't find that number.

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/?p=4089

“shadow” inventory – the newly constructed or converted housing units ready for sale but not offered yet – probably in the neighborhood of 6k to 8k units.

AR - yes, I do remember reading this when it came out, which was quite some time ago. I don't think it's accurate based on an article that was published 7 months ago to propose that there will be an additional 7K units hitting the market. How many of those have already hit the market? And how many have been repurposed into rentals or other uses. Also, I believe this is a city-wide number which includes all boros.

As for the 22K number, I won't dispute it but would really like to see a source. Seems a little high to me. I do know that new many projects have been stopped, and no new ones have been started since Lehman.

actually, i think the shadow market is probably currently larger. if something was already on the market or in contract and has since closed that would not reduce the shadow inventory. but if something was in contract and didn't close and hasn't been relisted that would increase the shadow inventory. many, many buildings have taken large numbers of units off the market, i haven't seen that many "new" units go on (with a few exceptions, like the Vissionaire). so far not many buildings have converted to rentals. some are stalled, nearly finished, but i'd argue that's just delayed shadow inventory. i really don't think it would be a reach to say that only 1000 shadow inventory units have made it onto the market and sold in the last seven months.

i'll try to find the 22k number. it was a year to a year and a half, or maybe even two, i believe, of inventory.

The shadow market for condos is huge. I dont know why someone cant take the number of units in all the condos, subtract the closed sales and come up with a real figure.

This quote from the Miller Samuel April 09 article cracks me up

"While brokers say they are seeing more activity lately, especially from first-time buyers taking advantage of lower interest rates..."

No matter what, brokers are always seeing "more activity lately"

I had a broker tell me that in January 09. I asked him what he attributed it to, he paused for a few moments to make something up, and he said "I think Obama's election". Ha!

> Also, I believe this is a city-wide number which includes all boros

Incorrect, its Manhattan.

Shadow inventory, wtf is that already. I've been hearing about this for 2 1/2 years now. Everybody who owns an apt in Manhattan has potential "shadow" inventory. So a developer is going to wait years to list so they can get 5-10% more on the price while their costs just eat at them daily with no revenue. Are you kidding me? Empty apartments just sitting there huh? Just sitting and sitting and sitting for months and years, waiting for that extra 5% in price. ya makes sense.

steveF, maybe you should go visit the Rushmore.

you think that developers list all of their listings at once? just flood the market, eliminating any sense of urgency and limited quanitity? makes sense.

"I've been hearing about this for 2 1/2 years now."

And, like in pretty much everything else, we've been right and you've been wrong for 2.5 years.

"Empty apartments just sitting there huh? Just sitting and sitting and sitting for months and years, waiting for that extra 5% in price. ya makes sense. "

Noone says it makes sense, but you're a bigger moron than we thought if you don't think it happens. Plenty of examples have been given here. And hell, if you have 100 apartments for sale, saying you only have 10 isn't going to slow down your sales.

In addition, if these guys were big enough morons to listen to someone like you, saying RE will be jumping up next week, why wouldn't they wait?

> Empty apartments just sitting there huh?

No, could never happen. Never. Impossible. NO. No empty apartments just sitting there.

Really, Steve, we know you're dumb, but come on now. Even your dog could understand this.

"you think that developers list all of their listings at once? just flood the market, eliminating any sense of urgency and limited quanitity? makes sense."

Since when has SteveF understood anything about making sense?

>And, like in pretty much everything else, we've been right and you've been wrong for 2.5 years<

human beings just amaze me in how they see only what they want to. somewhereelse aka nyc10022 you are so pathetic. what a loser.

amazing. truly amazing.

SteveF, it is incredibly amusing how much you are simply talking about yourself here.

You and perfitz are by far the biggest morons who have been screaming out what they WISH were true, while completely ignoring the facts and general reality.

It is not surprising that you try to insult the folks who proved you wrong (and a moron), but, hey, its to be expected. We knew you were this dumb a year ago.

and talk about pathetic... a guy who spends every day lying on this message board in hopes he call sell his underwater condo "investment".... doesn't get much more pathetic than that.

SteveF you are full of shit, yet stupid.

Yes, he even manages to get being full of shit wrong.

Poor Lost Souls.

Poor little moron.

Lost souls....yet you are the one upside down on a mortgage. Ah yes, you are stupid with the majority, so its ok.

Rhino..who said I was upside down on anyhting. I am right side up on everything, including my properties. I have mucho equity you have a rent payment to make.

somewhereelse is the leader of the Lost Souls.

You have a mortgage payment to make, maintenance to do, taxes to pay, and denial to foster.

Its quite a testament to the role of luck, SteveF, that you could have made sound real estate investments without knowing the difference between good entry points and bad entry points. You are clearly a moron. What is it that your daddy did for a living to leave you the money with which to luck into real estate ownership?

Its quite a testament to the role of luck, SteveF, that you could have made sound real estate investments without knowing the difference between good entry points and bad entry points. You are clearly a moron. What is it that your daddy did for a living to leave you the money with which to luck into real estate ownership?

Its quite a testament to the role of luck, SteveF, that you could have made sound real estate investments without knowing the difference between good entry points and bad entry points. You are clearly a moron. What is it that your daddy did for a living to leave you the money with which to luck into real estate ownership?

>You have a mortgage payment to make, maintenance to do, taxes to pay,<

and you to pay for it....

Is it Steve F. Brodsky? If not, go fuck yourself.

Sorry but my shrink says disengage from the morons... you've been real and fun, but not real fun. [ignore this person]

Rhino you started with the name calling...so I had to smack you down.

Anybody who has looked at any new construction recently knows that there are apartments available that aren't listed on streeteasy.

There are 2 types of shadow inventory (well, more, but for this I'll break it down into 2: apartments which are owned and lived in which have either hit the market and been taken off temporarily but with the full intent of putting them back on, and new construction which is being built. With the former, it can stay off the market, but the latter has to come on the market as either sales, rentals or someone takes over the project and finishes it and then the same thing happens. I think the days of a guy like Walentas hanging onto development sites for 10 years waiting for the market to improve are over.

____________________

David Goldsmith
DG Neary Realty

> SteveF, that you could have made sound real estate investments without knowing the difference
> between good entry points and bad entry points.

Its not luck, its lying.

SteveF admitted he bought his condo at the peak.

Dude is WAY underwater and desperately trying to sell....

> Rhino you started with the name calling...

Lying again, stevef... not surprised...

"Anybody who has looked at any new construction recently knows that there are apartments available that aren't listed on streeteasy."

Anyone with a brain... unfortunately, that doesn't include SteveF.