for everyone who thinks they are going to continue to push for more rental concessions....

merry xmas to you too....

I pop back in for five minutes and this is the drivel I see. Rents were down 5% year over year, and since the real estate market is seasonal, THAT is what matters, not month to month.

Second, Citi freely admits there there analysis excludes all concessions such as broker fee reimbursed, free months, free gym, etc. The New York Federal Reserve, Jonathan Miller, Urban Digs, TRGNY and even Citi itself have all said frequently in the very recent past that with concessions inclduded, effective rents would likely be much lower than those listed in such surveys. Anecdotely these sources (and Halstead) have said such concessions have been increasing in frequency, not decreasing. Have they abated in November? Maybe, but there is no evidence of it. The number of "no fee" rental listings on Streeteasy or Craiglist are MUCH higher than they were a year ago or in July, when I last checked, despite similar overall vacancy rates.

Third, all such surveys, including this one measure only nominal ASKING rent, not actual nominal rents once leases are signed. So this survey reflects landlords (such as yourself or your clients) confidence in rents being the same as in October (and down 5% from November), not their actual ability to collect such rents.

Finally, the combination of high unemployment in the area and the massive amount of new inventory hitting the market in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and LIC means its highly unlikely that rents will increase any time in the near future. Someday, but not today.

you are very thorough....you must read and alalyze a lot of data everyday. but i bet you don't rent or sell apartments for a living. there is less inventory than last winter.
Less inventory will equal higher prices and less concessions: count on it!

"but i bet you don't rent or sell apartments for a living"

It sounds like you broker rentals for a living, Jimmy...

"you are very thorough....you must read and alalyze a lot of data everyday. but i bet you don't rent or sell apartments for a living. there is less inventory than last winter.
Less inventory will equal higher prices and less concessions: count on it! "

That's only because Lamont Cranston seems to have rented a few thousand units.

Hey jason10006!! I missed your posts!!! Please keep in touch.

what a crock. landlords can play all the games they want. vacancies continue to pile up all over the city both residential and commercial. I live in the UES and see it everyday.

living on the ues makes you an expert on vacancy rates throughout the city? great empirical data provided there

i live in the UES and I work down on wall st. In both neighborhoods I see multiple empty towers. I'm not the smartest guys around, but I feel pretty confident that those places will continue to drag RE down for quite a while. what about all the bankruptcies in brooklyn? i mean cmon dude

Hey Jim,
Don't forget to get that little PRO next to your name. What does it stand for you ask? It's for prostitutes.

Hey Jimmy I understand that renting apts at lower rents cuts into your commission but you can easily make that up in volume. However your clear contempt for renters trying to get a fair shake probably came through and you turned off many potential clients. Every market-bull, bear, neutral- represents opportunity. too bad your greed blinds you to this.

name two emply towers on the ues marco. please. and this thread is about manhattan rentals, bk has nothing to do with it.

personally, cfranch, i dont care who pays the fee. quite frankly it makes life easier when the owners do. more people need to realize however that they can't ask for the moon and expect it. again, i see it every day. there is less inventory. that will lead to first a stabilization in rents, then a decrease in owner incentives. watch it happen. move now if you can. you have don't know me well enough to know if i have turned off any potential customers.

azure will soon be for rent

why is jim so mad?

and how does BK have nothing to do with it ? BK has everything to do with it. I forgot..im arguing with a broker

"Citi Habitats President Gary Malin said."

There's a source of objective data!

I just did a search on OLR.com broker pages looking for apartments in Manhattan, $1000 to $9000 listed rent, with either: OP (owner pays fee), free rent for one month or more, or a bonus to the broker of some kind. (Some landlords offer gift cards. Like, I need a gift card.)

OLR returned 40 pages with 500 hits (its search limit). That means there are more. I do not know how many more. OLR crashed when I tried to scroll through the pages.

The most common concession I saw on rents around $2000 is OP. I saw a few places offering two months' free rent--usually that's one for the broker, one for the new tenant. I saw one listing specifying the concession is only available at full listed rent.

My very limited experience with showing rental units (I don't like to so I quit doing it) is that the OP units are not as nice as the broker fee units. Yet, I saw one great OP apartment on the Lower East Side and another OP in the heart of the West Village with good light but not any real views, fully renovated, at a good square foot price. It didn't last too long but it was definitely there.

I hear your frustration, Jim, it's a tough market. I don't think the trend is abating, though.

{Manhattan real estate agent.}

he's mad because his business is down 20%...

or is it 25%? lol

Fluter, you admit that you don't show rentals. The West Village is brutal, whether they client is paying the fee or not, unless they have a significant budget. I actually feel bad for people I show apartments to there when they see what they are going to get for their money. Yes, there are still plenty of OP apartments out there. I wouldn't say there is a quality difference. BLDG pays a broker's commission, and there apartments can be fantastic. You won't find their listings on OLR by the way. Some of the worst apartments I have seen expect the tennant to pay the fee. But since I deal with landlords everyday, I can say that they are less and less likely to take a lowball offer. Why should they? They have discounted to where they need to be to rent the apartments. What is happening is people with a $2500 per month budget are looking at $3000 per month apartments and expecting with concessions and discounting that they will get the $3000 apartment. And it isn't happening. Watch, by the spring, one or more of these big time landlords will take the op away.

To jimhones09: for starters, you come across as a real low-life. You are most likely one of those bottom feeding scummy brokers in suits from Men's Warehouse who think they made it big time. Did you by any chance use to work at a boiler room brokerage before getting spit out of the securities industry? Your only joy in life is to gloat at what you perceive as other people's misfortunes. You could learn a bit from Fluter -- he seems to have the intellectual and professional integrity to acknowledge a soft market when he sees one.

As to your request to name empty towers on UES: Georgica, Brompton, Azure, the Laurel, the Lucida. I know they not 100% empty, but on average they are probably 50% empty. Of the remaining 50% probably half (or 25% of total) are either trying to get out of contracts or are having difficulties paying for apartments. In my book that is empty.

Next time before you launch into another tirade, take a deep breath, spit-shine your Florsheims, shake the moths out of your Alfani and imagine, if only for a second, that you are not as much of a loser as you obviously are.

Breaking News: Middle man claims now is the time conduct transactions. Don't delay or be priced out forever, says party whose income is postively correlated with transaction volume.

UKRGUY - you had me in stiches! I was pretty much laughing at myself because the Alfani/Florsheim/Men's Wearhouse wearing guy was me when I was a lot younger and and a helluva lot broker - thinkin I was da bomb!

"Second, Citi freely admits there there analysis excludes all concessions such as broker fee reimbursed, free months, free gym, etc. The New York Federal Reserve, Jonathan Miller, Urban Digs, TRGNY and even Citi itself have all said frequently in the very recent past that with concessions inclduded, effective rents would likely be much lower than those listed in such surveys."

whoops.

btw, I just got reduced rent (20% off last year's price, which was already down) and a free month. It disappeared because I ate it.

"Middle man claims now is the time conduct transactions. Don't delay or be priced out forever, says party whose income is postively correlated with transaction volume. "

lol.

well done.

jackasses like this have never really gone away, have they? amusingly saying the same thing for years. discounts were drying up a year ago, too, right?

Oh, nowwww I recognize jimhones09: he's the Chams Man!

i'm looking right now for a rental and I see something very different...LL's very willing to negotiate, dropping rent, paying fees, etc...

I've been looking in the west village and have been able to negotiate on every apartment...they are not in doorman bldgs. but in elevator bldgs with laundry...my problem is move-in date otherwise i would have signed a lease for $800 less than what i'm paying now.

"i'm looking right now for a rental and I see something very different...LL's very willing to negotiate, dropping rent, paying fees, etc..."

And this is the julia who for a year said she couldn't find a deal.

Sorry, but the op is just off his rocker.

I'm pretty sure Citi uses actual rents in their data, not asking rents. I looked into it a while back but can't remember where I found that out.

It's only one example, but a good friend of mine just renegotiated his lease for his studio on the UES. The landlord first offered to keep his rent the same at 1750, but after some back and forth got it down to 1500(about 15% down). That was last week....I don't think the market has changed since then.

A friend renegotiated her UES one bedroom (not all the way east, its 2 blocks from the express train), which was already low, she signed when things tanked - from $1750, down to $1700. Walkup, but this is nicely renovated, 2nd floor, high ceilings. Not giant, but a nice apartment.

Dear Jim Hones "09",

It seems like you are having trouble finding a good rental deal. I am not a broker, but maybe I can help you out for a small fee. Tell me what you are looking, and I am sure I can find you something great you have not been able to do on your own that will more than make up for the fee. I have access to a wonderful database of great apartments we in the "biz" call StreetEasy and can show you great year-over-year numbers on the same apartment line so that you know you are getting a great price compared to last year.

We all have our expertise, and I'm sure people are more than happy to pay you for yours, but it seems that Manhattan RE is not one of them since you are having trouble finding great deals right now. There's nothing wrong with admitting that and asking for help from an expert like myself. Sure, you could peruse StreetEasy yourself, visit apartments, etc., to find that gem, but who has the time, really, with a busy work schedule like you must have? You should leave that to an expert like myself.

I look forward to working with you.

Warmest regards,
I. "No" Nada

just spoke with a friend who is moving from an east village apartment to the brooklyner in downtown brooklyn. when they told the landlord they were leaving he offered them $200 off their current rent. still leaving for brooklyn though.

and i was out there thinking that brooklyn didn't factor into the manhattan rental market. at least that's what jimhones told me in this thread.

yes, and income has nothing to do with housing prices, either.

broker shills like this have always been here... we are we surprised.

sorry, I mean... why are we surprised.

"I'm pretty sure Citi uses actual rents in their data, not asking rents. I looked into it a while back but can't remember where I found that out."

Maybe Urban digs or miller will say if they come to this thread, but I distinctly remember that these surveys are often based on asking rents. Since Citi specifically mentions the lease in their quarterly report, they may be an exception. However, they say "Factoring in rent concessions, average rents may be between 5% to 7% lower."

As far as TOP saying we on these boards don't know as much as him on vacancy...that is kind of just plain stupid, since the same report he cites (and the TREGNY one) TELL YOU WHAT VACANCY IS EACH MONTH! The vacancy rate is the same, essentially, now is it was in May-July of this year, but the percentage of no-fee units is significantly higher now then it was then or a year ago. That alone is proof that at least that "concession" is rampant.

Finally, if one looks at both the TREGNY and Citi reports, one sees stark differences in not only year-over-year but month-to-month changes in rent. So for doorman bldgs, the biggest declines were in BPC, Midtwon West, Gramercy, and Fidi, depending on the size. However, there were some types that increased - Harlem 2 bed doormans (because of all the nondos), most things in Soho & Tribecca, etc. So you can point to some anecdote, but on AVERAGE rents are down year over year and month on month, and concessions remain commonplace.

"It seems like you are having trouble finding a good rental deal. I am not a broker, but maybe I can help you out for a small fee."

Unless you have a NY RE license, it would be illegal for you to collect a fee.

No joke, it just got finalized today for our 2/1/2010 renewal. We negotiated from $3,085 to $2,750, now bear in mind, it was like pulling teeth, but both the wife and I negotiate every day, (not real estate transactions) so we've got thick skin and a couple of techniques under our belt. The rental agent did advise us, as we were finding the bottom, the market has changed dramatically since the summer, we were shooting for a flat $2,700, so we didn't get everything we wanted... but $4K savings we'll definately get a week in the Caribbean.

"Unless you have a NY RE license, it would be illegal for you to collect a fee."

It was a parody.

"You won't find their listings on OLR by the way."

This means one of two things: the broker doesn't have an exclusive, or the broker isn't a member of REBNY. REBNY members are required to cobroke their exclusives. And it's getting to the point where it's almost impossible to be a residential broker in Manhattan and not be a member of REBNY, whether you want to or not.

Just threatened to leave our building and the land lord gave me a 20 percent reduction!

"This means one of two things: the broker doesn't have an exclusive, or the broker isn't a member of REBNY."

Or they simply don't follow the rules.

Nice, buddy. According to jimhones00, you just barely caught it before it was all going to go back up.

Did a pretty extensive search for 2-3 bedroom (1200-1500SF) apartments on UES, UWS and midtown, basically identical to the search we did exactly a year ago at this time. Inconsistent, as usual for Manhattan rentals (very inefficient market), but overall a fairly clear picture of net rents down 5-10% from the same time last year. I actually saw several exact same apartments that I saw a year ago - none had raised the price and most had lowered it.

Also spoke to a couple brokers I trust (crazy, I know), and they confirmed the same.

Final and amusing note - more and more landlords are refusing to post prices on their websites. I suspect it's because they don't want current tenants to see deals new tenants are getting and ask for the same.

Thanks for sharing that info. So what have you ended up doing on your place newbuyer99? Renew or move?

by the way, this blog post talks exactly to this discussion: why some landlords are just not giving in right now, in terms of either concessions or price drops:
http://theapplepeeled.com/uncategorized/why-your-rental-offer-may-not-be-a-slam-dunk/

this is because they think the the recnet good economic news will save them. what NYC owneres dont realize is that the NYC job market has been permanently reduced. desperation has turned into stubborness but this will eventually break. as we go into January and the story remais the same, owners will be forced to give in.

inonada, thanks for asking. We renewed. Got the price down a few hundred from landlord's original proposal (not as far down as we wanted), and got some other important terms that we wanted.

Honestly, several of the deals we saw were meaningfully better, we were very, very close to pulling the trigger and moving. If we were planning to stay a long time, we probably would have. But we are pretty serious about buying in the next year or so, and going through the huge cost/hassle of moving, especially with kids, just wasn't worth it for just a year.

"going through the huge cost/hassle of moving, especially with kids, just wasn't worth it for just a year."

And apparently the landlord sensed that.

I can certainly understand that, especially with kids. Sometimes it's not worth it for you, that's life. A few hundred's not bad, though, and terms (I assume you mean option to terminate) are worth a great deal if you'll be buying. Best of luck.

yeah, that was one of the key terms, there were a couple others. And yes, worth a great deal. Thanks.

Jimhones-->owned.

free rent? Disappearing -- NO
owner paid fee? Disappearing -- NO
Owner agreeing to your stupid low ball asking rents? Disappearing -- NO
Your chance of paying a full fee for a rental: Increasing -- No

And if there was any slight movement in those directions, that's because it was 4 weeks ago. In 2 weeks, the season shifts HEAVILY toward the renter. I'm just talking seasonality but seasonality toward the renter is magnified in a weak market just as seasonality toward the owner gets magnified in a strong market. We are in a weak market!

Jim why is your font messed up now? How do you do that?

owner paid fee...still here
free months...still here

nothings changed Jim, what gives??

??

bump dammit bump

Going back to my own POV from 3 months ago, and knowing people who entered new leases last month in better buildings, there was a definite tightening 1 month ago vs. 3 months ago. That could be seasonal, but JIm's not necessarily wrong in as much as any rental market trend is short-term before it may or may not be long term. Also, the season actually got more in favor of the landlord (on a relative basis) a bit earlier this year than normal, confirmed by multiple anecdotes. However a good negotiator should definitely have been able to get some of the concessions if they weren't shy, if they were qualified, and if they had some perspective on the market. I truly believe though that it is a local market and in Manhattan where people don't like to cross the street for a cup of coffee, you could have strength in one micro market and weakness in many other places, so share your anecdotes!

7 months old, this thread....would love to get a contradictory point of view now, seeing that i was so obviously right, and all the naysayers....well, where are they?

Here they are: Vacancies up, concessions on way back

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/with-apartment-vacancies-up-in-manhattan-according-to-citi-habitats-landlords-rethink-renter-concessions

Already discussed. Poor reporting. 1.1% is still an extremely tight market.

"Already discussed. Poor reporting. 1.1% is still an extremely tight market. "

Tight relative to what? Its lower than a year ago, but higher than May, June, or July. And higher than it was the first three months of 2008.

So not terrible, but not great. We need more months of some trend to see for sure.

...also, TREGNY has vacancies lower, not higher, MOM, so we would need to see such things from more than one brokerage for more than one month to know for sure...

apt23
about 15 hours ago
ignore this person
report abuse Here they are: Vacancies up, concessions on way back

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/with-apartment-vacancies-up-in-manhattan-according-to-citi-habitats-landlords-rethink-renter-concessions

this would have been great, had you responded in july. it's now late october. of course vacancies are up month over month

I am currently in talks on a 1-brdm rental in an upscale UES building. Asking is $3,000 + they are offering 1 month free. I have asked for 2800 they countered with 2900. We are still in negotiations. Of course, there is no fee. This is quickly becoming a renters' market again.

^^^One example does not make a trend. Its pretty clear from the most recent Pru, Citi, and TREGNY rental reports that concessions were much more common a year ago. In my bldg, rents net of concessions are up about 25% for newly vacant units, YOY. So my one example negates yours.

My guess is that for 3Q & 4Q, we will see flat rents inflation adjusted, or slightly higher rents in nominal terms. But not a renters OR landlord's market.

My current building also offers free months but it is not as upscale as where I am looking. I agree that there are fewer concessions now than 9 months ago, but the heading of the thread claims concessions are disappearing. There are fewrer of them now, no doubt. But they are not disappearing. If anything they will robably increase between now and the next busy rental season.

We shall see. I am very doubtful. Crains is making a big deal out of a .22% increase in inventory. This is a negligible data point and certainly insufficient to predict the return of widespread concessions.