Will NYC experience a double dip in 2010?

a little self absorbed cfr? the point is to call others "half brained" in a thread discussing a real estate double dip is fruitless.. the discussion was shadow inventory remember?..not the 200 day moving average

Is it really a double dip if it never rose?

moxie i am calling nobody body half brained. i am merely responding to requests from other posters. please re-read my posts. i do not think i used that term nor do i denigrate anyone else. in fact i have never stooped to name calling on these boards. self absorbed? well maybe a little but nobody else is going to watch my bottom line. investing, in any asset, is a zero sum game. somebody loses and i do not want that person to be me.

Rhino: first you care then you don't. i can give you my returns from jan '08 to now and that is a hair over 7% after trading expenses.

all this talk of shadow inventory smacks of the exact same chatter one hears at market extremes. it has been trotted out so much that it is taken as gospel. that sets off my contrarian bells and i think it is overdone. i challenge anyone on this board to go to an open house and ask to see a warehoused listing. let us know if you are rebuffed. i suspect you will be accommodated.

So youve made 7% to date from Nov 07 when you exclude getting destroyed in Q4 07 and you brag about it...and it makes you an expert on condos? I wonder what accounting you will use in ten years to make this purchase look modestly positive. Haha.

Yeah this is overdone like tech was overdone 25% off the Nasdaq top...oh wait you have experience with that too.

You are a rookie who swallowed a trading book and is now burping out terms.

Thick skull its not that developers deny when asked, its that these are unreported units in the stats, period.

Is 7% a good return with a 30% drawdown? Haha.

"there is no such thing as shadow inventory at least with regards to new developments and to any buyer with half a brain......" i was surprised to see you post this as we have had worthy exchanges including of course the discussion concerning the jackass homophobe lawyer who tried to take advantage of u and your partner..as for your last point concerning your contrarian meter registering a ton of chatter i agree wholeheartedly.. as i plan to live in my place for years all that matters is that its finally affordable for us(rates and price)to get a place i like

Real estate will be a 'contrarian buy' when this site become deserted because no one is interested in buying real estate any more.

Its not contrarian when there are so many real estate bulls claiming to be contrarian. Good luck with that.

rhino...u might want to consider decaf

Fair enough. Good luck with your purchase. You should be breakeven by 2018 or so.

9 yrs of building equity at 5% interest rate versus 9 yrs @24,000 in rent down the rent hole??hmmm

Rock.....me......Hard Place

You're not really going to build much equity from this point. Much like a person buying in 1989, it will go down then up and you will be around the same place in 10 years. Your interest is down the same hole. So is your maintenance. I am curious how a $2k/month rental is going to suit you for 10 years. Whatever suits you.

We should take a poll. It feels like there are just about as many bulls as bears on this board. Far from the 70%-80%+ bears that would make a contrarian call remotely applicable.

speaking in absolutes?...i have no idea where this market will be in 10wks let alone 10yrs but thx for wishing me luck

Rhino wasn't actually wishing you luck.

Opinion is understood in such statements. I don't think current valuations are conducive to attractive equity returns. Is that better?

You are trying too hard.

Change from complete asshole to normal member of society is slow: you can't force it.

I actually do wish you luck. I can appreciate that owning feels good. I think its sad that the credit bubble priced things so high that it turned the conventional wisdom (that owning your home is most often the best option) on its head. When you come off such a high (like the 2000 Nasdaq peak) that it means a much more dramatic fall than we have seen (25% off after tripling in 10 years) is necessary to make long term investment fruitful.

hfs i know that buddy...my method is always talk quietest to those who speak the loudest

yes that's better rhino and your point is well taken

I find it amazing that he chose the name Rhino. Only Biff could be more appropriate as a name.

"Real estate will be a 'contrarian buy' when this site become deserted because no one is interested in buying real estate any more"

lol, love this one. I always said, real estate will be a screaming buy when everyone is sick and tired of Manhattan real estate and nobody wants to talk about it anymore

Yes we agree because we know what contrarian actually means. It doesnt mean when 8 bears argue with 6 bulls all day on a board and debate the appropriate entry points. Contrarian is buying oil after 9/11 at $18, not at $100 down from $140 haha. Or more recently at $35 when everyone was calling for $28....not that I was lucky enough to do any of these things. I wonder if we ever really will get to the revulsion stage in Manhattan real estate or how long it will take.

Rhino,
I think it's all in the recovery process. If unemployment lingers for 2 more years (which is not a long shot) I think your going to see some significant price reduction. You can only hold thinks off the market so long. The longer you get into the crisis the thinner the money supply gets. Now add to this the eventual specter of inflation and rising interest rates. The city only stays shinny if there's money coming in. Taxes and a tarnishing apple may further cause prices to reset at much lower levels. All that being said, a rapid recovery of the 'local' economy could make all this dribble. I'm betting on a slow haul and this years stellar equities extravaganza may turn out to be more sign than substance.

Rhino: i'll take a 7% return over a 20%+ decline in the S&P over the same period any day.

Moxie:you're manufacturing a controversy where none exists. do you think my "half brain" comment was directed at you? i was simply referring to the fact that RE has become far less opaque due to sites such as SE, Urbandigs etc. any serious buyer would be on here saving buildings and listings and checking closing prices. you're on here and from your prior posts i know you to be someone who digs for facts and figures.

Urban: yeah nobody posting on SE would be a great contrarian indicator. but this is NY and everyone has an opinion and RE is always a topic of discussion. maybe on a similar site in cleveland but not here.

moxie - to be fair, i don;t think cfranch was directing that comment at you....as neither was i..you made it clear in your original comment that you understood the inventory situation in the building you looked at..

my comments were not made in response to feeling the remark was directed at me. we all need to feel our due diligence is sufficient for our own circumstances..believe me i don't, nor do i have the energy to, manufacture anything. you both (cfranch, and jimstreet) have shown your ability to cull pertinent info from this board..i simply strive to do the same

"lol, love this one. I always said, real estate will be a screaming buy when everyone is sick and tired of Manhattan real estate and nobody wants to talk about it anymore"

agreed. and there are waaaaay too many bulls still to claim thats the case.

For people inclined to buy right now, its definitely a feel good anthem.

not sure if this got included in the double dip calls..

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/manhattan_double_dip_rFLSp7Rcxpd7R0FKHxyVQK

thanks somewhereelse, wow pot meet kettle.