" I am seeing bidding wars at every scale..."

I see dead people........

It is the height of hubris to engage in a bidding war in this environment. Clearly the value of that apt was not 12 m or it would not have dropped to 9m. As if this hedge fund manager didn't have the means to quietly buy something in the 12 mil range in a depressed market. To engage in a pissing match draws attention to a wanton disregard for money that is a symbol of everything that is wrong with this era. And the reason that the financial community is drawing fire -- not to mention why a significant part of the world despises America. The broker that is celebrating the outbreak of bidding wars at every scale should be flogged. And, as if that is true. Really bidding wars for studios? one beds? or just 10 million plus apts? If so, start naming them because they are not showing up in SE and Acris. I hope the investors in the Eton Fund will reconsider their investments knowing one of its partners is so profligate that he can't find a deal in a depressed market. What does that say about his financial acumen.

maybe it would be nice to quote the tart? i know she's likely more intelligent than ms. palin, but she doesn't really sound like it here. jsmith, want to opine regarding her "bidding wars at every scale" comment? especially given the rest of the quote? wtf?

"This really does show the efficiency of the market," said Louise Phillips Forbes, a top broker with Halstead who was not involved in this particular deal. She was speaking generally about an uptick in bidding wars in New York. "The market is catching up. The truth is, maybe not across the U.S, but in New York proper, where our economy is responding to all of the efforts that have been put into helping it, I am seeing bidding wars at every scale. This is what we are dealing with for great, unique properties."

Lets put this in perspective... at "over 5000 feet" this is, what $2300 psf? For a supposed trophy property, thats chump change relative to 2007. Back then, anything with a decent name was $3k +

I have to agree I have seen some UGLY bidding wars. Will NYC ever change? Even in this market?

I really do believe that the last 15 years of ponzi scheme economics topped off with a taxpayer bailout has created a tier of exceptionally rich hyper elite that are so economically detached from the real world that bidding $2-$12M+ for an NYC apartment is not just a "normal" purchase but a simply luxury one. They don't care about how much an equivalent apartment would rent for or how much the monthlies are....

Yeah, there are plenty of people out there who "struggle" to buy a $2M apartment, but the real estate and financial boom that accompanied it, have created a new economic tier that made SO much money from "artificial" markets and thus have no qualms spending "artificial" prices for real estate here in NYC.

I am the biggest RE bear out there, but I am realizing that trying to put an irrational situation into "rational" perspective often tends to forget that it was irrational to begin with. The NYC RE market is full of participants that could care less about making a sensible economic decision because the numbers we are throwing around are relatively insignificant to them - or they are willing to leverage up and play the odds - just as they probably made their money.

Until we have a real economic correction, these super recipients of the last 15 year hyper boom will continue to drive higher end prices in NYC.

At the other end of the scale, here's a small one-bedroom that sold quickly, with more than one bidder: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/476069-coop-108-west-87th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

11/03/2009 Listed by Halstead Property at $419,000.
11/23/2009 Listing entered contract.
02/03/2010 Sale recorded for $420,500.

The 11 foot ceilings are great. I can't say I'm crazy about the bathroom right next to the kitchen, but seems like a nice apartment expecially with those ceilings and the building location.

Classic six: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/470815-coop-1112-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

10/13/2009 Listed by Stribling at $1,875,000.
11/06/2009 Listing entered contract.
02/03/2010 Sale recorded for $2,017,000.

Prewar one-bedroom: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/472491-coop-135-east-74th-street-upper-east-side-new-york

10/20/2009 Listed by Corcoran at $725,000.
11/14/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/27/2010 Sale recorded for $776,000.

The Alwyn Court two-bedroom discussed elsewhere: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/445478-coop-180-west-58th-street-clinton-new-york

08/17/2009 Listed by Halstead Property at $1,650,000.
09/17/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/28/2010 Sale recorded for $1,700,000.

i just experienced another over ask multiple bidding situation...frustrating. it is what it is.

Not that there're a lot of these.

Of the 200 most recent Manhattan co-op closings, 124 were linked by SE to a listing. Of those 125, 11 sold for more than last-asking, 10 sold at last-asking, and the remaining 103 at listing discounts ranging from -1.1% to -25.2%, with a median of -4.7%.

If the ask was 40% off peak, and it ends up going for 35% below peak, who cares?

Beats me. I do like to see sellers price their stuff to the current market and move it fast.

One "range" where LPF has not seen many bidding wars is her own UWS listings, at least not the ones that have closed recently.

140 Riverside Drive #8N
05/07/2009 Listed by Halstead Property at $785,000.
06/20/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $749,000.
08/24/2009 Listing entered contract.
11/10/2009 Sale recorded for $705,000.

37 Riverside Drive #1A
07/10/2009 Listed by Halstead Property at $3,400,000.
07/31/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $3,050,000.
09/30/2009 Price decreased by 7% to $2,850,000.
10/23/2009 Listing entered contract.
12/24/2009 Sale recorded for $2,575,000.

220 West 93rd Street #6A
10/20/2009 Listed by Halstead Property at $1,599,000.
12/18/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/15/2010 Sale recorded for $1,575,000.

300 West End Avenue #13B
10/02/2009 Listed by Halstead Property at $5,250,000.
11/13/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/27/2010 Sale recorded for $5,000,000.

905 West End Avenue #113
05/15/2008 Listed by Halstead Property at $1,980,000.
10/30/2008 Listing entered contract.
09/12/2009 Re-listed by Halstead Property.
09/12/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $1,875,000.
11/06/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/29/2010 Sale recorded for $1,620,000.

Of course, it's possible that she was referring to properties that haven't closed yet.

Another place where bidding wars appear rare is 15 Madison Square North itself. Among the past month's closings, #17AB is a fairly extreme outlier.
---------- Recorded Sales ---------- | ---------- Previous Listings ----------
02/05/2010 # 14A $ 4,730,000 - 19.8% |↓ $5,900,000 2 beds 3 baths 2,380 ft²
01/26/2010 # 14F $ 2,690,000 - 25.3% | . $3,600,000 3 beds 3.5 baths 2,390 ft²
01/26/2010 #17AB $12,000,000 +20.6% |↓ $9,950,000 5 beds 6.5 baths 6,137 ft²
01/20/2010 # 9E $ 2,625,000 - 19.9% | . $3,275,000 3 beds 3.5 baths 2,035 ft²
01/20/2010 # 13E $ 2,561,000 - 25.8% | . $3,450,000 3 beds 3.5 baths 2,035 ft²

Bidding wars are for suckers. And, yes, there are suckers out there.

"this is, what $2300 psf? For a supposed trophy property, thats chump change relative to 2007"

how is this a trophy property? It is an oversized condo sitting on top of an office building in a bleak neighborhood.

W 81: "Of course, it's possible that she was referring to properties that haven't closed yet."

Wow, are you a gentleman. That disclaimer was way generous.

With one born every minute, should be more than a few...

The problem with the whole subject is that we can't quantify it. Aside from those few that close above last-asking, there's no way to know how many there are. E.g., something that ranks as a -20% lowball could've had bidders at -20% and -21%.

That makes it an easy claim for someone to make, though I can't think why somebody'd lie about it.

If for principle's sake you don't want to bid against anybody else, then you shouldn't. On the other hand, if you want a place enough to make an offer at all, then no big deal if the price gets jacked up a bit more than it otherwise would've.

NWT: I don't think you can even consider calling anything a "war" until the bidding exceeds the current ask. And I tend to agree with somewhereelse that it's not much of a war unless the closing price marks an uptick from the comps. Skirmish, maybe. War, no.

IMO, a serious war should produce a price that an appraiser can't justify. That's when you know the escalation has gotten out of hand.

A skirmish indeeed. A genius seller dangling a price that actually makes sense at current mkt irregardlessly of future mkt, a lemming bites, in fact two bites and fights to be the bigger lemming. Nice nice.

" I don't think you can even consider calling anything a "war" until the bidding exceeds the current ask. And I tend to agree with somewhereelse that it's not much of a war unless the closing price marks an uptick from the comps. Skirmish, maybe. War, no."

Correctamundo! (just saw pulp fiction again :) )

Otherwise buying a foreclosure on the steps would be a "bidding war."

West81st, agreed. We need a term for "a couple of people wanted it, but neither was crazy."

The real issue is trend of closing prices, I would think. because a skirmish can result from oddities of the ask vs. comps, something unique about the place..whatever. You people that follow the market closely in terms of closed deals -- how would you describe it. Is there still a downward trend or is it sort of leveled off around 25% around peak. Are there really any closed deals showing upticks...

Well it could be that the skirmish was over a property worth owning. There's a lot of "crap" out there.

>> "a couple of people wanted it, but neither was crazy."

Fiscally responsible?

WSJ TODAY: This "shadow inventory" of homes expected to hit the market is enough to last about 10 months, based on the average sales rate over the past decade, the Irvine, Calif., firm says. The problem is largely concentrated in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. The shadow inventory is equivalet to 27 months of sales in Orlando, 24 months in Miami and 18 months in Las Vegas, the study estimates.

...wonder what the numbers are for nyc...and how many skirmishes it will take to offset that

So, I have not been posting here for a while because it finally happened: happyrenter has become happyowner. I found the right apartment at the right price this fall, 2000 square foot prewar in the village with everything I was looking, and I just couldn't pass it up.

What's interesting to me is that Ms. Forbes seems to have a diametrically opposed view of the 'efficiency' of the market compared to what I experienced. I was looking at two apartments, one Pareto superior to the other and asking, say, 30% more. The cheaper apartment had a bidding war and ended up with an intense bidding war, went for well above asking price, and sold for only 15% less than a significantly larger, Pareto better apartment in a better building, better location, in much better condition.

This is anything but an efficient market--no one really knows what apartments should sell for, so a few apartments have bidding wars, some trade quickly, some languish on the market, and it is not always possible to discern a rational reason why.

Congrats Happyrenter(owner)!!!

Happyowner: That's good. Enjoy your new home.

As for the bidding wars: Sometimes people don't know why a few apartments have bidding wars.
In the case of overpriced, undersold condo developments; it's the Developer who tries to create a bubble for that building. See the threads for One Brooklyn Bridge Park.

Add the word "stampede" and you have a SteveF post.

happyrenter, congrats!

great story on the efficiency differential. It actually matches exactly what I've seen on the rental market. It seems like noone is willing to pay for "better" anymore. Great for some of us!

happyrenter, that's great - congrats on your purchase. 2k sqft should give you plenty of room to grow into. Best of luck.