Manhattan Rents Going Higher

just as i have always said. the minute the developers can do so, they'll justify (and it's always "demographics") building again. that is exactly what they said in Manhattan/Brooklyn three and four years ago when they decided to build the current new and upcoming stock. lots of young people, household creation, roommates splitting. look how that turned out for them.

if they can get the money they justify building. we have a huge excess supply of housing and now they're determined to build more.

btw, the data in this seemed national to me, not manhattan specific.

riiiiiight..they can speculate all they want..bottom line is that the jobs arent there to support it.

We (at least in NYC) DON'T have a huge excess supply of housing at all ... we have a huge excess supply of overpriced housing that no one will touch.

Nationally, yes, and builders are still living in a dream world.

ah, but there are a number of developers who are currently discussing additional rental projects in NYC. and yes, they'll be overpriced, but as we've seen even here with more supply than demand prices do go down.

it is amazing. there are so few job prospects for the young right now (and going forward as well), but they'll be ready, willing and able to occupy large numbers of additional apartments.

I have a good friend looking to move, I went apt hunting last week with him. Any decent one bedroom was well over $3,000, doesn't sound like a bargain to me. There was one apt for rent that he really liked, the developer wanted $3200, he offered $2800, they came back at $3100 and said they absolutely wouldn't go lower than that--he walked, they let him...

to all the naysayers....there are now TWO articles written to support what I have been saying FOR MONTHS. If you haven't yet gotten "your deal" you had better hustle. because they are dissappearing. and start staring in the mirror and practicing these words "i will pay your fee" "i will pay your fee"

Ahem..... This seems to say more in between the lines about developers in regards to NOT building more coops and condos and having to resort to building rental projects to see any action at all.

And as to your comment Mjh1962 in regards to the apt your friend liked. Who cares what non-bargain rent
management was asking because they obviously didn't get it. Not only from your friend but most likely dozens of others who also passed. . So what they came down only $100, they didn't get that either. And they didn't get #2800 of nice cold cash a month because they are sticking to stubborn policies.

And tdadlami, I wouldn't lock down any lease longer than a year. cause rents ARE getting cheaper and cheaper and a multi-year lease is a sucker bet.

I am not saying they are necessarily bargains out there but rents did become absurd and they are now correcting.

i am sorry but those are not articles, they are opinions in blogs wit absolutely no data to substantiate any claims or hopes. show us the data of rents going higher and we'll talk.

realdealny.com - if there ever was a golden standard for reporting, this blog is not it. Also, it needs more ads. In addition, the little blurb they have on this topic, seems to be a rehashing of the WSJ blog post. So, two blogs + broker hype = call to urgent action. Jim, you'll forgive me for being skeptical.

polydoa
20 minutes ago
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report abuse i am sorry but those are not articles, they are opinions in blogs wit absolutely no data to substantiate any claims or hopes. show us the data of rents going higher and we'll talk.

I don't need to show anyone any data. other people here are doing it for me. there is another thread here (very recent) about rental concessions being taken away. my line is this:
1. inventory levels decrease IN DESIREABLE NEIGHBORHOODS (I don't really care about Fidi, Midtown West of 9th ave, Bklyn, LI city or the neighborhood next to the housing projects behind the time warner center. you want to live in those places, good for you)
2. landlords, noting the decrease in inventory will begin to take away concessions in select circumtances (this is already happening)
3. rents will increase

WATCH IT HAPPEN! If you don't sign a long term lease on a "deal" apartment you will be priced out

I do this everyday, I see it everyday

good for you!
i guess it is a local effect then?
in my neighborhood (6th ave in the 20s) there are 2 new huge towers with "luxury" rentals.
one with occupancy in summer 2010 (eventi) and another with occupancy summer 2011 (tower 111).
i just don't see the local area absorbing 500+ apartments in a year and a half, especially since the northern fringes of it (low 30s where these towers are) are borderline in terms of desirability (garment/flower district with the united nations wholesale counterfeiters next door on broadway).

This falls right into the lap of a discussion we had last night about the dichotomy of this market. Its a case of solid data supporting completely different theories. That's why we're all right and all wrong at the same time.

"We (at least in NYC) DON'T have a huge excess supply of housing at all ... we have a huge excess supply of overpriced housing that no one will touch."

Define 'huge excess supply'?

I thought inventory levels are substantially off it's peak.

Until the NYC unemployment picture becomes clearer, all of these predictions have very little basis..

you bears were delusional thinking that renters would have an upper hand in prime Manhattan for any extended period of time.

You missed your opportunity again. The landlords are very quickly back to the FU Pay me days.

@WideStance I didn't miss any opportunity. The renters still are in the SMFD "days" to the landlords and
those days are becoming GTFO for any abatement of concessions also.

polydoa
about 2 hours ago
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report abuse good for you!
i guess it is a local effect then?
in my neighborhood (6th ave in the 20s) there are 2 new huge towers with "luxury" rentals.
one with occupancy in summer 2010 (eventi) and another with occupancy summer 2011 (tower 111).
i just don't see the local area absorbing 500+ apartments in a year and a half, especially since the northern fringes of it (low 30s where these towers are) are borderline in terms of desirability (garment/flower district with the united nations wholesale counterfeiters next door on broadway).

"border line in terms of desirability" you said it, i didn't

yes, i said it. what's your point.
borderline desirability means they will therefore have to lower their rents in order to fill their 500+ apts, dragging down prices for the whole neighborhood in the process.

Exactly. You cannot have all the nondos and new rental buildings in the West 30s and along 6th ave NOT be competition for things in the 20s in Chelsea. Far too many people on the margins would in fact move a few blocks for brand new and cheaper. It WON'T just be people from Brooklyn moving into the city.

These brand new unemployment figures don't help the argument one bit:

http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/pressreleases/pruistat.htm

"Financial activities
Losses in the financial activities sector were largest in real estate and rental and leasing. "

polydoa
about 2 hours ago
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report abuse yes, i said it. what's your point.
borderline desirability means they will therefore have to lower their rents in order to fill their 500+ apts, dragging down prices for the whole neighborhood in the process.

no....lower rents for less diserable areas don't equal lower rents in desireable places.

jason10006
44 minutes ago
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report abuse Exactly. You cannot have all the nondos and new rental buildings in the West 30s and along 6th ave NOT be competition for things in the 20s in Chelsea. Far too many people on the margins would in fact move a few blocks for brand new and cheaper. It WON'T just be people from Brooklyn moving into the city.

that sounds good..... except living in the west 30's and 6th ave is like living near penn station. living in the west 20's off 6th is residential

jim_hones10
so you are saying that no one would move from 27th and 6th to 29th and 6th to save $500 a month in rent? i, for one, i am thinking about it and will definitely go by the eventi as soon as they open their doors to inquire about rates. not to mention it will be brand new apts and by definition on a higher floor (residential properties at the eventi start on the 30th floor!) with a nicer courtyard and hotel amenities below... sign me up!

RIght, and there are people who would then move from 23rd and 6th into your now-vacant apt, and so on. These thousands of new units will not be filled ENTIRELY by people from outside Manhattan.

Hell, I have lived in Hells Kitchen, BPC, back to Hells Kitchen, Harlem, and the West Village since I have been in Manhattan. I will move anywhere for a good deal, and I know lots of people like me. ESPECIALLY renters. Maybe not so much buyers, but so many renters, especially young, single renters in Manhattan will move exactly as you describe.

right....and i know and deal with tons of people who won't go east or west of a certain avenue, no matter how good a deal. there are far more people like that. or else there wouldn't be any vacancies in places like battery park city or the financial district. aren't they both cheaper than, and close to, tribeca? in some cases "only" a few avenues or blocks away?

No rents are only going higher on account of the seasonality. On the Upper West Side there are two large buildings almost done by big rental companies on 72 Street and on 67 Street. They will be giving big incentives and free months and then in 12-18 months people will move out of them because of the increase shock.

"or else there wouldn't be any vacancies in places like battery park city or the financial district. aren't they both cheaper than, and close to, tribeca? in some cases "only" a few avenues or blocks away"

And yet rents have declined for doorman and non-doorman bldgs in EVERY neighborhood and for all sizes of apts and townhouses in Manhattan year over year for virtually 36 months in a row.

Clearly, rents (and sale prices)CAN and DO move in the same direction up and down the island.

It sure looks like we have a lot of new users on here...and they all seem to be pushing the "rents are going up" mantra. Not fishy at all.

If rents or prices were going higher, you wouldn't have so many brokers here like jim jones sh*tting their pants....

I have seen distinctions between the better buildings and the older buildings. And the better buildings, yes, rents are moving up. I think it's a step function, and the step is happening about right now. I don't see that there will be more incremental increases though for at least a year.
But with the lower quality buildings, I view it as a good thing. Time for some of the Manhattan housing stock to improve.