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Rents Up.. thank you SATC

Started by hol4
over 15 years ago
Posts: 710
Member since: Nov 2008
Discussion about
..national story, but NYC is noted http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_32/b4190048442366.htm the young ones can't find jobs in suburbia... to the city we march. ..hmm must be more borker shill? riiiiightt
Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Yep. Rental demand is very linked to employment. I think we've seen the lows in rents.

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Response by steveF
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008

wow, great article. thanks hol.

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Response by somewhereelse
over 15 years ago
Posts: 7435
Member since: Oct 2009

interesting to see this noted here... "The economy's recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s"
when there were some folks vehemently disagreeing with that premise.

Of course, doesn't this article infer that this is BAD for housing prices? Good for rents, but isn't this saying that the folks who would be buying are losing the jobs, being replaced by folks less likely to buy?

It also seems to be the exact opposite of what steve said 20 minutes ago, which as that all the unempployment was from the 20 year olds.

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Response by stevejhx
over 15 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

According to today's data, the recession was worse than previously thought, and the economy is slowing down rather abruptly. I believe that 500,000 jobs must be added each month just to keep up with population growth; we've been adding about 150,000. Foreclosures have hit an all-time high and are getting worse, yet property prices - except for foreclosures - remain sticky. Unemployment has gone down, but only because more people have stopped looking for jobs; whatever growth there was in the economy last quarter was due principally to increased inventories, and not to consumer sales.

It's not often that I agree with Fast Money, but this time I think Guy Adami is right: what's coming for the next 2 quarters looks ugly - a triple-top on the S&P 500, the end of the fiscal stimulus, and deflation. I have seen some anecdotal evidence in my building that landlords are trying to raise rents, but I have also seen that it's not working.

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Response by printer
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008

i think you are wrong on the 500k #. i think that 150k/month is the number needed to keep up with population growth.

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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

Hole. Rising rents are 100% correlated to NO more increases in re taxes and maintenance, and magically 0 assessments for the next 30 yrs. You may commence gorging on coops!

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Response by stevejhx
over 15 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

You might be right on that, printer. I didn't check it in advance. Maybe the bigger number is the number needed to return to the precrash level of employment.

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Response by aboutready
over 15 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

printer is right, and that's assuming the predicted number of individuals are entering the workforce each month. but we seem to have been going sideways, at best, for many months.

empty homes are housing inventory. it's taking a very long time for the market to deal with foreclosures.

rs posted this article the other day. I believe the rental vacancy rates quoted are inconsistent with the census bureau's figures, which take into account homes that are rented by owners, and which showed no change in inventory.

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Response by bob420
over 15 years ago
Posts: 581
Member since: Apr 2009

Where is that triple top on the SPX?

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Response by stevejhx
over 15 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008

From June, at around 1100. Briefly above twice, just shy once, can't hold on.

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Response by julia
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007

my LL is raising rents but not across the board...a three bedroom he rented to someone in the bldg. for $4400 and yet he just rented the same 3 bedroom to someone from outside for $5600...

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Response by Riversider
over 15 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009

Rents are going up. And renewals are always treated differently than first time leases.

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Response by julia
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007

the article mentions Manhattan but the person who they're talking about says he pays $700 for his share with one other person..where in Manhattan.

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Response by bob420
over 15 years ago
Posts: 581
Member since: Apr 2009

It's tough to call a triple top when it has been higher twice in the last month. 1120 is the big number. Takes that out and look for 1230 or so. The recent trend is up and support looks to be about 1080. There are a lot of bullish indicators at this point. I wouldn't look to get short until that 1080 is taken out.

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Response by hol4
over 15 years ago
Posts: 710
Member since: Nov 2008

julia, what hood are you in? article state he's sharing with roomies in UES, guessing york ave.. lotta college kids that way

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Response by bob420
over 15 years ago
Posts: 581
Member since: Apr 2009

steve, did you get short?

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Response by julia
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007

hol4 you're right but he states he pays $700 with one roommate, considering I paid $2500 for a studio I'm envious

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