White flight

flmaoz

If you like a split level ranch for $1.2M plus a 90 minute commute, go for it.

Or a 60 minute commute. Besides, this is Manhattan vs. the burbs discussion....not LIC vs. the burbs. The market has already spoken on that.

flmaoz

Besides cheerleading for LIC....I think it actually an interesting discussion whether in a post credit bubble world if all these people with unsustainable Manhattan family budgets at 300-400-500 a year are going to get the fuck out of dodge and how long it might take. There will always been delays before reality hits. I think it my building, reality is hitting. $5000-6000k/mo that only comes with K-5 PS6 has to be questioned relative to Bronxville, Greenwich, Scarsdale, Darien, whatever is in NJ, etc...etc.

you should capitalize Dodge. FLMAOZ

rhino is still upset that he doesn't know how to interpret historical price to rent ratios correctly.

Rhino, why would I say anything about LIC? I've never been there. Have you?

Rhino gets his facts mixed up all the time.

We have been looking at houses in the burbs and you can do pretty damn good with $600-$800k and a 30-45 minute commute. I have been around a while, my kids were born in 1984 and 1988 and were both raised here in the brownstone their Mom grew up in. Life was not always this (financially) tough here...

Many of the family's I meet are basically suburban material and would have no qualms heading out of Dodge.
I think it will have more to do with the city becoming a city again along with the relative high price you pay for the privilege to live here relative the the virtual bargains that await 30-45 minutes in all directions. Even with astronomical property taxes in places like NJ, from as a financial perspective burbing makes a lot of sense. Especially for the family's making $200-$300K with a kid or two squeezing themselves into a sardine can of an apartment in the "right" school district. I have a number of clients like this.

Initially I stayed for social reasons (wife also inherited a beautiful brownstone in Chelsea) so housing was no issue. Also getting both kids into ps3 on a variance was easy then, unthinkable now.
But people choose to live here because they loved NYC and the life it offered, the culture of city living with all its ups and downs and dirtiness; we were not doing the burbs.

Todays NYC is a different animal populated by many families who I believe will continue to trickle out of the city and it's that slow drip you have to be careful of. Time will tell....

I know life wasnt as financially tough here...Bankers bid up the price of commuting time with their bank-leveraged pay checks.

" Especially for the family's making $200-$300K with a kid or two squeezing themselves into a sardine can of an apartment in the "right" school district."

Yes these people will leave....as well as many $300k-$600k ones too. Even $1mm+ are starting to be intrigued by what a $2.5mm+ house looks like vs. a $2.5mm+ apartment.

This drip is why I can't conceive buying here right now. I think we'll live in the burbs and then instead of planning to eventually buy a summer house (we'll have those amenities where we leave)...we'll hope to buy a pied a terre sometime down the road.

"Bankers bid up the price of commuting time with their bank-leveraged pay checks." Great description. Bankers plus 2-and-20 people actually.

"This drip is why I can't conceive buying here right now." I think the core question is how fast the drip is/will be relative to what it was the past, say, 10 years. To hear others tell it (as I wasn't here in the 70s and 80s), it was more of a flood than a drip from the 70s through maybe the early 90s, then started to slow later in the 90s and became a drip in the 2000s. The cycle of people through the city to the burbs broke down, the well-off-but-not-wealthy stayed in much greater numbers and they started to bash each others heads in in the housing market (rental and especially purchase). Hence the bizarre phenomenon of the $400-500k p.a. financial refugee.

I think the OP is basically saying that the outflow is picking up, which if true will add to the downward pressure on RE. There are a lot of reasons to think that the outflow would pick up, although one significant one - RE prices down 20-25% in the last 2 years and rents at early 2000s levels - that argues in the other direction. I do think that this phenomenon operates incrementally and at the margin - people say "screw it, I love living the city but I can't justify the cost of living anymore" one at a time, maybe a few more now than two years ago and perhaps a few more next year than this year but never no one and never everyone at the same time. I don't have any particular sense that were at a tipping point where there is a stampede to the burbs, so I wonder if the outflow is enough higher relative to the last, say, decade that it will really move the needle on Manhattan real estate.

The outflow will not lead to downward pressure on real estate unless people that can afford to live here stop moving in. Why are people being priced out? Demand.

Juice - most of the people who move in, or stay, can do so because this is where that high paying job than allows them to pay up for real estate is located. I'm fairly confident that there are fewer jobs paying whatever level you want to choose than there were two or three years ago. People making $5mm+ - are there more or fewer in 2010 vs. 2007? I'll take fewer. $2mm+? Fewer. $1mm? Fewer. $500k? Fewer.

You say it's all demand. OK. Supply and demand set price at the margin. Supply has continued to grow as projects started in 2006-08 are completed, not just in Manhattan but also in large numbers in locations like Williamsburg and LIC that compete on relative value. Demand is impacted by the job market and especially finance sector comp. Real estate is illiguid and not transpartent and there is a lag before price finds a new equilibrium. I don't think the adjustment is done. You may think it is. If Rhino is right and well-off-but-not-wealthy flight is accelerating, then there is more adjustment that has to work its way through the system and the eventual equilibrium will be lower still. I don't see that as an acute issue (sharp adjustment in the near term), but it could be a chronic one drags on the market for a while.

How's the baby? He must be running all over the place by now.

Leaving price declines aside, I think prices in Manhattan will lag price improvements around the city because the price spread is too wide right now...at least relative to history. And I have no data to back that up....just my perception.

By around the city, I mean suburbs outside the city..but fringe areas like Dumbo and LIC that were born of the bubble will be worst off.

We are in the eye of the storm. Good public school K-5, difficult-to-get-into selective middle school, etc. Many families live in much less space than they can afford in the suburbs, many dream of moving to the burbs, but everyone's tipping point is different. If everyone tips at the same time, yes, price crash. Hello 50k Lincoln Towers studios again.

I've alluded to this before, but I am skeptical of even "excellent" public schools. If you're a motivated, intelligent kid from a supportive family, you will do well short of bullying/violent schools. I am more than tempted to home school given the number of creative kids I've met who didn't have formal schooling prior to college (latest anecdote - Possum Living/Dolly).

I think maybe you're skeptical of the importance of excellent schools because it probably jives with the life decisions you've made. Then psychologically, you're driven to seek examples of individual children who "do okay" even without "formal schooling".

Everyones tipping point is different but my point is the tipping point has probably shifted a lot since 2007 and the individual life decisions that drive markets come with a delay.

Parental involvement and good teachers are more important than excellent schools...but the first one is something you can control...the second one you can only maximize your probability of by being in a good school.

"White Flight?"

Unfortunate subject heading.

Rhino: sure, the outliers are always more interesting. But you only have one family of children to raise. So it's always a personal decision. I am underwhelmed by the majority of individuals I have met who went to "excellent" non-selective public schools in this country.

I have some knowledge of the families who actually leave our area to go to the suburbs. It's a small trickle, and I don't think that the tipping point has changed that much since '07. I am always shocked at how long families try (in the last 5 years) to stick it out in the city. Postponing the decision year after year. But of course, I'm looking at an ageing group. Maybe the people who have just started having kids in the last couple of years have a different tipping point.

Its always personal...but wherever you are, I think to use anecdotes to deny the importance of a good school is somewhat self serving. Now if you want to make the leap that school itself is unimportant, then I guess intellectually I can follow your logic that excellent schools are not important.

I have to disagree that the pace or percentage will not / has not be impacted by deleveraging of bank and personal balance sheets as well as more reasonably calibrated attitudes toward risk.

White flight was just an homage to the 1970s phenomenon....sorry if it sounds racist. I used it as a kitschy proxy for the types of earners that I think will leave the city in larger numbers.

Rhino: with respect to our very large school community, the bulk (as in over 50%) leave because they are relocating to different states or countries. Now maybe they chose to do so because costs of living in NYC are higher, but there you are - very few go to NYC burbs. If you look at the private school population, maybe more of them are driven to the burbs because of the costs of private tuition. I don't know that population as well. Naturally, I am excluding the group of people whose kids aren't in school yet. Maybe the decision to move is made earlier - prior to K. If so, then we'll see your theory proved (or not) by the incoming K classes in the coming years. If they shrink (bear in mind that birthrate has also decreased), then we have tipped.
And this is only one segment of the UWS. I don't know what the sentiment is downtown or UES.

For any given child, I don't know what difference it would make in that child's life (again, difficult to measure that) if that child went to an excellent public, good public, mediocre public (barring any bullying/safety issues). Not knowing what the outcomes are, I would always err on the side of caution and approve unblinkingly tax increases, whatever, to improve our schools. But, now having BTDT, I can say that I'm not sending my children to the best school I could get them into (making the assumption here that a good Westchester/LI school beats NYC gened) and guess what, I'm not feeling yet that it's going to be detrimental.

I kind of agree with you...kind of...I'd probably put the bar
a little higher than you though...Higher than non-dangerous...
But I am def not the person who argues for top flight nursery
thru Exeter. I agree somewhat that with decent parents and
reasonably opportunity that water finds its level.

It's about the cost of education.
$35,000 per head not including:Daddy, I NEED the new Droid,laptop,iphone,tutor,class trip to Costa Rica.
Got two kids? Double it. Three kids...
Now there's the car in the garage etc etc etc
Totally correct! At 500K your just holding it together in a two bedroom.
One kid you could do...two kids-ouch...three...hello public schools.
The RE available to the 500K guy is also sad.
This city chews you up and spits you out.
She's a harsh mistress.

I also think that at your particular rental building, you may see more people who are headed to the burbs. The rents are high enough that one starts thinking about what one could afford in the burbs. There is a significant group of renters here on the UWS who are in that 2500-3500 range for a small elevator/walkup 2br. At that rent, what could you afford in the burbs (add in commuting costs + car)? And remember that once you've packed off your youngest to the good zoned public, you can now move way uptown for more space.

And then, if you're a finance person, budgeting the $500k means
making more to leave you with some semblance of sanity vs. the
change you get zeroed at year end. The 2004 MBA was never zeroed
before 2008. That has to change you.

Please show me an example of a 2 bed / 1 bath where you can
live with two kids in the UWS. This is not me being patronizing.
I am honestly asking because my sense of the market is that you
are exaggerating the bargain a bit. $2500 I am kinda calling
BS. $3500 maybe. We saw a decent 2/2 at the corner of Lex and
91 I think in a condo for $4000k last year but moving just didnt
appeal to me. My rent renewal offer was $5000 at the time.

I might add that it's an all color flight.
Check the stats...blacks are headind south in record numbers as they rediscover their roots in the Carolinas plus the Carolina value of their dollar.

Not to worry...this city always finds it's bottom. (better be a power bottom)

But to answer you, there are $700k homes available in decent
burbs that would make a 1000sqft 2 bed/1 bath look very very
sad, at least to me...and the math equates.

Falco: I was the poorest kid (no aid available) at a posh private. Ditto my partner. We were very grateful and happy that our parents were making financial sacrifices (goodbye retirement) to make tuition payments. I would say that the poorer kids at privates become aware of what their parents can afford at a young age and would not ask for crap. Maybe the kids these days are more willfully blind. I dunno.

Its a very very interesting ethical question the extent of
sacrifice appropriate. Am I hurting my kid if I'd rather live in
Larchmont with a Hamptons house (they'll have the memories there
too!) than send them to Rye Country Day instead of Mamaroneck
High.

I can show you many examples. These are not rent-stabilized/rent-controlled apts but bldgs with very low turnover. These aren't bargains because if you are comfortable at 12E86, no way you would trade. You get what you pay for. Brusco bldgs are good deals as are Solil bldgs.

If you were living in a 2500-3500 2b/1b in a good district, one would not really think of the 700k home in (where? Maplewood, you including commuting costs/car?) as a good trade. They would rather stay.

Rhino: yes, very interesting question. I would have done okay in the local highly rated parochial (parents pulled MAJOR strings to get me in there) too. My partner went to good local public until 6th grade, when it was apparent that he needed much more pushing. In his case, his parents may have hurt him if they'd kept him on at the local public.

Rhino: better example - your kid at Andover/Exeter/Pingry/Lawrenceville with you in Larchmont or your kid at Mamaroneck + Hamptons house.

Yes, I went to Iona Prep in New Rochelle in 1987 when it cost $3000/yr. And when I applied to colleges there werent fifty other kids trying to get into Harvard... This said, I was no where as well as prepared for the work as the kids from top privates... But Iona Prep isnt even the honors track at Scarsdale or Bronxville or Darien. I bet those kids were prepared nearly as well.

There is a tax benefit to the burbs... I would really need to crunch all the numbers. If you make $400k thats $8000/year for cars and commuting right there in taxes alone. There are $800k homes in Scarsdale...And I know a guy who just paid $880k for a modest home in Darien, CT near town after selling his 2 bed (at a loss sadly).

Think a lot lower for income. If you were a 200k family paying 3500/month for a 2b/1b in a good school zone (SE has at least 10 listings that fit that description on UWS), Scarsdale et al. still out of reach, no?
And you're too focused on the SAHM model. A dual-income 200k family is even more likely to stay in the city, given the abundance of afterschool programs + the hassle of two commutes.

I dont disagree with you per se. I am not really talking about two incomes to make $200k... They probably should stay in the city. I am talking about one $400k income if you really want to drill down. If two people need to commute to make $200k...then no, they need to be near to their children and maybe should sacrifice space for time. I think the one commute for $400k is a pretty logical move to the burbs...because my apartment is a $1.2mm purchase and I think that just kind of stinks compared to what you can find for that price in the burbs. Assume taxes pay for cars.

jesus Rhino. you currently live on 86th/5th? do you really want to live in the burbs? can't you come up with a better, more urban, alternative? unless you don't mind the suburbs...

Then your post should really have been titled - flight of 400k-1m(?) single-income family to the burbs. Because, as you say, it's a no-brainer. But I bring up the 200k (or 100k+freelance) because you're ignoring the granularity of the population that supports baseline rental and sales prices in Manhattan.

I think the downward spiral of Manhattan is when all the $400k earners on the bubble who would have stayed in headier times start leaving. Yes I speak of the ones in buildings like mind paying $4500-6500.

nyc10023 $200k earners dont support $5000k rents and $1mm+ apartments.

UWSmom no I dont mind the burbs. I like backyards and barbeques. I'd rather enjoy Hamptons/Cape Cod type of amenities every weekend. I read a lot. I dont need to eat out all the time and spend money on drinks.

Our local schools didn't improve because of the 400k+ earners. I'm not sure that I support all the retail that the 400k+ earners brought to my zipcode. I sure didn't appreciate the 400k+ earners sticking around long enough to make it preschool admissions a bloodsport.

Tongue in cheek, Rhino. I love that you're paying NYC income & retail taxes.

"If you like a split level ranch for $1.2M plus a 90 minute commute, go for it."

A split level ranch for $1.2 million? Where? It is obvivous your pulling numbers out of your ass.

Rhino: in 1998, when a luxury 2-bedroom was $4k, and a classic 6 well under $1m, I liked the UWS just fine. A rollback to that would be okay in my books. PS6/87/199 had good reps with enough space for out-of-zone variance applicants, providing much-needed "diversity" for the bleeding-heart-liberals. What's so bad about all that?

yeah, if i was still in the workforce and had an interesting/challenging job, i might not mind suburban life either. it might be a nice place to decompress. but, the thought of being a SAHM in the burbs terrifies me!

nyc10023 I mean that's totally fine and true, but the type of NYC with many fewer $400k earners is not the one we have today...its the one we had in the 1990s. That the one I think we're heading for. Nothing too drastic just more "normal".

uwsmom, I think the best way for me to say it is that I love the city, I just dont think its my end all be all nor is it a source of self esteem for me to be here, off 5th or otherwise.

Yeah it terrifies my wife too. Yet when I offer the option for her to work fulltime again when both kids are in school she balks. Can't have it both ways (unless you make $800-1mm plus).

nyc10023, if it could get back to classic sixes under a million in a short enough time I might not leave at all...and then I'd send my wife to work to cover the private school tuitions when they graduate PS 6.

My husband too

I've changed my mind about buying an apartment like I rent....the timeframe is just not long enough for an apartment this size.... And when you show me 1500sqft for $1.8mm I look at what that buys in the burbs and start to gag.

Rhino: it sounds like you're itching to move. Your better half is probably way less happy about the SAHM-in-a-burb existence. You don't have to convince me. A 400k+ single earner household is situated such that you can buy a nice place in the burbs, but not in the city (yet). But I would hesitate to say "white flight" because as I have pointed out, staying in the city and renting makes sense if you make less money or if you both work.

Based on my observations of life around me, when your kids are in school, your wife will either run the PTA or be chafing to work at least part-time.

One of my HS teachers used to call Iona Prep - Idiots on North Avenue. You go Rhino! Did you play football?

The point is unless she wants to throw $150k-200k into the kitty, what bearing does the PTA or her part time work really have on the calculus. Yes, I am itching to move. My rent carries a $1.5mm house. This said, renting allows me to bide my time (and extra time) until rates start rising.

That term was more for the college.....the high school hasnt been on North Avenue since the 50s I think...Iona College is low tier. Iona Prep is just sorta an okay alternative to Yonkers and New Rochelle public schools...and for motivated students, maybe not even for the latter.

Uh, the calculus of a happy marriage?!?

Ugh, Rhino, you're in a tough spot. my husband and i have our own challenges, but one thing is certain: we both want to be in the city. it may be the only thing holding us together at this point. oh yeah, and our kids ;).

Yes football in high school and college.

It was fun chattin' with you folks, but even the drapes drawn can't hide an outstandingly beautiful fall day (fantastic adult + kid races in CP this a.m.). Ciao.

My wife has agreed that moving makes the most sense...the timing is debatable and surely has been. I think she holds hope that I will start killing it and my fiscal concerns of city living will fade. Frankly, I am not even sure any more about the concept of coop living any more. I just dont do well with authority.

Ha well I am grounded until baby wakes around 4 anyway.... Have fun.

Who says you can get a 2 br one bath for $3K (perhaps under 900 sq ft and walk up)? Are people paying 5-7K in this building crazy?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/2-cooper-square-new_york

I think people are just saying for two earners than make less than $250k in total, a 900 sqft walk up for $3k may be a fine option. Not for me. I'd move out. Thats too tight.

With a kid, that is certainly too tight. You need at least 1000-1100 sq ft.

Not "a" kid....two kids...and then there'd still be people who'd argue the point. I know with two kids I want 1600+ sqft...and that is still not much a value proposition to me vs. the same price point elsewhere.

I think with only one kid a lot of options open up. My "problem" with the city is three real bedrooms are still just too expensive...then private school is a ticking time bomb once you finish elementary.

I agree. If your wife does not work and you have more than one kid, it is a pretty easy choice to commute an extra 30 minutes each way.

Rhino: gorgeous day. I get your angst, esp. on a nice day, cooped up inside. If you lived in the burbs, you could be in the backyard with baby monitor on.

With the set of facts you presented (400k-500k, 5ishk rent, not interested in privates), it's a no-brainer unless you are addicted to the city, brutal working hours. My main contention is that it's such a narrow set of circumstances, I would hardly call it flight even if every family with 2 children & those circumstances left the city. And because I know few families with that profile who do stay in the city, I would argue that those families leave and have been leaving.

nyc10023 - nice to have you back on SE!

Wow just got home from a hike in High Point, NJ, great state park saw a black bear with 4 cubs, pretty cool on such a beautiful day. I pulled the trigger(rent) on NJ last week, moving to a nice quiet town 25 minute commute in and we already own a car. After 26 years in the city I am ready to give it a try. Got a nice sun porch, dr,lr, two brs. and a newly renovated kitchen for $1649, oh yeah and full use of the attic. Looking forward to the storage as I have skis, snowboard, surfboard, golf clubs and a road bike.

My wife is shocked, she has been wanting to move out for a while and I swore I would never leave. It just hit me one day, we spend most of our time at home except for dinners out. We are away every weekend either beach or mountains, what's the point of living here? I rented one of those micro offices and will be here plenty, kind of looking forward to going home to a block that is quiet and full of big leafy trees. I just can't afford to live here in a civilized manner and both kids are grown, one living in LA another in Bushwick.

I had a good run here starting in 1982 with my first place at 188 Norfolk street, 1200F2 for $250 a month divided by 3 of us!. Played music and sold silk screened t-shirts of punk bands to record stores and such, I lived pretty well. Don't let the last name fool you, I had two 1st generation Italian Grandmothers, so I love to cook. I would walk over to Little Italy and buy fresh pasta and cheese for Sunday dinners...

Anyway we'll see how it all works out. Funny that many of my friends live outside the city, kind of granola and sporty like me. You could not give them a loft next to DeNiro in Tribeca and convince them to live here, they never understood the appeal? There's also hot yoga across the street from our new place....Maybe I will blog about my life in NJ. lol.

http://theburkhardtgroup.com/agents_details.php?agent_ID=7619

Well, DeNiro gave up on Tribeca and moved to the Upper West Side. Micro-movements within New York?

Also, as an observation, rents in the suburbs never seemed to have anything to do with the sale value of the property. Way lower to rent than to buy, even in the suburbs, but this goes way back.

rhino, it appears i am in the same boat as you. two little ones under age 3, on a 3 bdrm lease-to-own here in the city that is fast-approaching its deadline and although its a 3 bdrm with enough room for now, price is still "high" even taking into account a pricing point 20% off top. love the city, really like our building - easy train to work, etc.

BUT, worried about the next leg down which i do think is probably over a 50 handle at this point. have been looking in the burbs (gasp) the last few months and i have to say, not sure where those great house deals are around 1-1.5. in the upper category of income on your scale and quite frankly even the homes we are looking at 2mm+ are not the shangri-la places that somehow most believe are out there once you escape the city.

so, 2mm condo or 2.5 home in the burbs? btw, you can rent a pretty amazing home in the burbs for 5-8k that will probably make you forget your 2/2.

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/237-Upper-Mountain-Ave_Montclair-Twp_NJ_07043_1120615968

What do you think of this...

great house, nice town too. not for me though, if i am going to move out of the city - would look for more open space and montclair doesnt fit that description.

i hear the term "terrifying" a lot from sahming women when the subject of suburbs comes up. i have yet to hear an explanation that is not completely demented. what is so terrifying? seriously asking.

ok rangersfan, we agree that you aren't Rhino, just like lucillebluth isn't penthouselady and Admiral isn't Dwayne_Pipe.

hmmmm, thought i was rhino??? not sure how that could've been since he and i had it out pretty good a few months back but i guess peeps do change their name quite frequently, cc.

"What do you think of this..."

You could do better in Bergen County. I would rather have something like this:

http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1026365&dayssince=&countysearch=false

no guys, he wants this

http://www.trulia.com/property/3009962982-5-Normandy-Pkwy-Morristown-NJ-07960

this discussion is not even remotely considering brooklyn or queens. i ran the numbers before moving to wiliamsburg 4 years ago, and a 2000 sq foot place in WB way wun out, plus no commuting. been extremely happy with public school, and no high taxes. more to NYC than the horrible anyway upper westside. the burbs work better with stay at home mom. 2 parents commuting each day blows.

teensie bit out of his range, but oh so beautiful

http://www.trulia.com/property/3016542069-2-Van-Beuren-Rd-Morristown-NJ-07960

how do you feel about 2.3?

http://www.trulia.com/property/1088495891--Morristown-NJ-07960

a nice prep school boy from new rochelle must love this one

http://www.trulia.com/property/3005314929-151-Oak-Ridge-Ave-Summit-NJ-07901

and this one

http://www.trulia.com/property/3007996166-31-Headley-Rd-Morristown-NJ-07960

Lucillebluth: ask the same question on urbanbaby.com or youbemom.com.

Wisco: I am a big fan of Bk - love brownstone Brooklyn. I'm also a fan of Queens - definitely some beautiful parts with great schools (socio-economic diversity + great scores).

Rhino: I forgot to ask about renting in the burbs, I know the rent-buy ratios still tilt towards rent in many towns - especially since some sellers are not capitulating. I know of at least one property that is asking 8k rent/2m+ ask, mint condition, Rye.

Everyone's personal situation is different. I would (and am able to) move to London or Toronto over any NYC suburb.

lucillebuth, couldn't you come up with something a bit more interesting than MORRISTOWN,NJ.

oh, and why did rhino end up being "trolled"?

i don't care what a bunch of anonymous harpies think they think. i care what a repeat poster who has to stand by their words has to say.

what's the problem with historic old money morristown? the parameters weren't exactly clear.

what does "trolled" mean?

oh, i thought you were talking at me in the third person so maybe took it the wrong way. i am somewhat of a repeat poster for whatever that is worth.

Trolled means that rhino's posts has been turned to grey - some posters its obvious why they do so but not so sure with rhino.....

at least some part of rhino's op was that it's depressing comparing equally priced properties in manhattan and the burbs. i was agreeing with him in a very visual way by providing examples. would you like me to look up some 2.3 and 3.whatever homes in prime manhattan for a comparison?

i know. i've been here for like 3 years.

Well, if you put it like that.

Walking over driving. I love driving. Nothing nicer on a beautiful day to go whipping down the Hudson River Parkway or the Cross-Bronx in the fall. But I don't like driving in the pursuit of errands. Even in the walkingiest of (suburban) towns/villages, it's almost impossible to recreate the scale of my immediate neighborhood. My needs are simple. Schools, gym, running, useful stores, all within a very pleasant 10-minute radius. Farther afield, on a whim, without having to worry about parking or train schedules, there are museums/other cultural pursuits/interesting markets. Oh, and on really adventurous days, not too hard to get to Queens/Bk for good eats & sights.

There are some beautiful towns and villages in the NYC suburbs. Of all the metro areas I have been to, NYC boasts some damn fine architecture (the topology helps too). I like all the 20s houses in Westchester, the older Victorians in NJ, and Manhasset has a fine stand of 'em too. But it lacks the density that supports the infrastructure I mentioned above.

Yes, education past 5th grade will be an issue. But as I've said, I am able and willing to make the tradeoff of moving where that problem is kinda solved but not having to move to burbs.

Sorry was out celebrating my anniversary. Two things. Iona Prep is not a prep school and there is no way I'll ever move to NJ. Its pretty much Riverside or Darien....and nothing is terrifying. In the black car we'd get from Broadway to Darien in about 30 extra minutes vs the UES.

Congrats, ditto here.

sure, generally i think most of nj is not an option given its been hard to even fathom moving out of nyc but nj is a quantum leap.

Lucille: it's not terrifying - that's just hyperbole. Maybe if one didn't drive, it would be somewhat terrifying. These are all "high-class" problems. Really, to have a choice between a 2m condo or 2m house?

rangersfan, have you actually been to Morristown. Its beautiful, diversified, with a nice downtown, with movie theater, performing arts center, and great restaurants including a variety of ethnic places. Very walkable with a good train station albeit one with a long commute. Most of the people I know from there actually drive into the city in the am. Tjirty five minutes to the Holland Tunnel without traffic, and most of these guys are in fanance so they leave early anyway.

ahhh, that does sound crappy but given its something we have been saving for many years and didnt give in to the bubble pricing, still not a bad question to ponder.

two anecdotes. We have friends who raised their daughter in the city. They then moved to Westport. The daughter now has a great job, got married two years ago and surprisingly, she and husband have decided to move to Montclair NJ. It is shocking to me that a young, upscale (presently childless) Manhattan couple would want to move out of the city. When I pressed them on the issue it was all about living space and expenses. Plus they said a lot of their friends were moving out of the city.

Secondly, we have friends who finally were able to buy their pied a terre because they prices went down. They bought a place near the grandchildren. They have had the place a year. Now the children are moving to NJ and they will have to commute to see the grandkids.

I think we will see a slow trickle to the burbs in the coming years.

by quantum leap, do you mean the river?

rhino, gotcha. i was making a reference to the prevalent architecture style of the nicer parts of your home town. darien is probably more your speed though. congrats on the anniversary.