Home Prices Double Dip....

unfortunately not in manhattan.

Once again, here is the chart someone posted on SE awhile back. Can't remember who it twas or I would give credit. But it is the best and most terrifying chart I have seen ---because I am a big believer in the principle that dictates that bubbles always Revert to the Mean.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/home-prices-may-drop-another-25/62049/?source=patrick.net#toolsTop

There is no bubble in Manhattan. Prices are simply catching up to reality that Manhattan RE was undervalued to begin with, plus Schiller doesn't cover Manhattan, and also it's an island and there is no more room to build anywhere and EVERYONE wants to live there, plus Teh Dow is at 11k and growing and the recession is over and unemployment is dropping. We're back, baby. I would buy, but I'm priced out forever, so you guys enjoy. I'm going back to Jersey.

"Prices are simply catching up to reality that Manhattan RE was undervalued to begin with"

HAHAHAHAHA!

This city is a shit hole.

pulaski's funny.

Pulaski: Manhattan is not immune to a crisis in confidence. If national housing prices drop another 20% it means that there will be 40% of housing will be underwater on their mortgages. That means we are still in a recession, the dow will not be 11,000. And everyone will be afraid to buy apts because they will be alarmed at how they can lose value. And the govt will not be able to stop it with more programs. The people who got their $8000 tax credit have no seen that wiped out as housing prices have just decreased 6% in last two months. You think anyone will fall for that ploy again? Nope. Confidence will shake Manhattan and cause prices to fall.

This is Gary Shilling (interview starts at 2:00). He is the first person I heard in the media who was sending out the clarion call of housing bubble - I think in 2003 or early 04. People in the media thought he was ridiculous -- but he was absolutely right with most of his numbers. He is definitive about another 20% down in housing -- not good for the economy

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1622289522&play=1

apt23 - I think pulaski was being sarcastic...

she's acluistic

I need to repaste this one to save it for posterity, as I'm fairly confident that the post (and poster) won't be with us very long...

acluisticcomm1
19 minutes ago
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she's acluistic

SLS: So you think it sassy and smart of you to use my own clever words against me. How pathetic is that. So you think it great for you to engage and encourage the troll? You are pathetic and unlike the personal attacks you continue to make against me --for no reason-- the statements I have made about you continue to be true.

apt23, you are the only person on streeteasy to actually post the building address of a streeteasy regular poster without that person's permission. Your stalking trumps anyone's. Between that and you being the only person on streeteasy who has outright admitted to the commission of a crime - lying to the police about a felony crime in process by your husband - you've really got a lot going for you.

By the way, speaking of engaging the troll, you started a thread about hfscomm: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/18649-se-get-together-confirmed

"SLS: So you think it sassy and smart of you to use my own clever words against me."

Well, ummm, yes. Particularly given a) the meaning of aclusitic and b) how completely you missed pulaski's tone.

sidelinesitter
about 1 hour ago
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I need to repaste this one to save it for posterity, as I'm fairly confident that the post (and poster) won't be with us very long...

What are you trying to say?

I Command You!
BACK UNDER THE BRIDGE!

Apt23 hasn't outed my address. I outed my address. It's west 67th street. Acris it under mr. Droppy right nut sack w67th. Therez you go.

Which bridge? :)

falco, I'm so close to seeing a bully break down under the weight of her own faulty logic, really bad behavior, and acluism. Just give me till this evening and I'll go back under the bridge.

I will not be revealing the specific bridge.

From you...the queen of good behavior?

I never said I was a Queen of any sorts.

You are a queen.

Are you naked around children right now?

Hmm, non answer.

Now, that was the type of boring but violent-hinting response that we'd expect from columbiacounty, not from you.

it's the Tri Borough Bridge complex built by the King of all Trolls...Robert Moses.

"CHART OF THE DAY: It's Confirmed, The Housing Double Dip Is Here"

"Nothing too fancy or hard to understand here... from the Just-released Case-Shiller index, it's clear that the housing double dip is here."

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-case-shiller-september-2010-11

ouch

Pulaski,

I'm a fan of yours but if you wish to keep me as a groupie, you must maintain my faith in your powers of analysis!

" from the Just-released Case-Shiller index, it's clear that the housing double dip is here."

To cage a line from the Gershwins, The things that you're liable, to read in the Business Insider Bible, "It ain't necessarily so..."

The correct graph can be found at Calculated Risk:
http://cr4re.com/charts/charts.html?Home-Prices#category=Home-Prices&chart=CSSeptYoy2010.jpg

We MAY be headed for a double-dip, but CSI does not show us there YET.

Data to follow.

CSI NSA data for the past 15 months

Month

July 2009 155.95 144.32
August 2009 158.07 146.11
September 2009 158.77 146.63
October 2009 158.68 146.49
November 2009 158.33 146.17
December 2009 158.16 145.89
January 2010 157.87 145.31
February 2010 156.85 144.06
March 2010 156.22 143.35
April 2010 157.36 144.57
May 2010 159.41 146.47
June 2010 161.07 148.00
July 2010 162.28 148.91
August 2010 162.10 148.55
September 2010 161.25 147.49

Whether you do it by month (Sep 2009/Sep 2010) or Quarter (3rd Qtr 2009/ 3rd Qtr 2010), the numbers for 2010

In the previous post - The (not formatted properly columns should have column headers of:

Month Composite-10 Composite-20

Any way you space it, September 2010 data is HIGHER than the September 2009 data, so we may be headed for a double-dip, but the CSI data says we aren't there yet.

Here's the CSI SA (Seasonally Adjusted - as opposed to Non-Seasonally Adjusted) data for the past 15 months.

July 2009 154.54 142.88
August 2009 156.31 144.31
September 2009 156.76 144.68
October 2009 156.81 144.68
November 2009 157.25 145.11
December 2009 157.99 145.75
January 2010 158.7 146.29
February 2010 158.82 146.10
March 2010 158.85 145.85
April 2010 159.63 146.75
May 2010 160.53 147.50
June 2010 160.87 147.74
July 2010 160.74 147.34
August 2010 160.21 146.64
September 2010 159.14 145.47

Neither CSI SA or NSA show home values in negative territory Y-o-Y. Methinks, Business Insider (among others, need to check their facts. Or perhaps, they are psychic and know that CSI will downwardly revise the just released September data soon!?)

> The correct graph can be found at Calculated Risk:

Thats *not* the correct graph. Double dip means refers to declines in consecutive periods.... not Several periods ago.

With GDP, it is two consecutive periods.... and isn't that what we have now?

SWE,

We're talking housing prices NOT GDP. The chart claims "Year over Year change" and shows a decline in housing prices according to CSI - BUT there aren't Year over Year declines for the period in question in the CSI data.

Business Insider did something wrong in their calculations. Don't believe everything you read.

Inflation will be the govts tool to make it "appear" to have a stronger housing market.

> We're talking housing prices NOT GDP.

I'm giving the parallel.

> The chart claims "Year over Year change" and shows a decline in housing prices according to CSI -
> BUT there aren't Year over Year declines for the period in question in the CSI data.

Two wrongs don't make a right. That you both used YoY data means neither can show/disprove double dip.

*both* charts are wrong for the claim.

> Don't believe everything you read.

I don't... mainly because I see so many mistakes like the two made here.