predictions

2012 Best Year ever until December 21, 2012 where we are all consumed in a firey cosmic event.

Phew! I thought that the cosmic event would be 9 days earlier.

the Hopi and Mayan elders do not prophesy that everything will come to an end. Rather, this is a time of transition from one World Age into another

like a transition to $500 per square foot

It's the end of the world!

Domestic bonds earn their coupon at best.
Real Estate is plus minus low single digits.
Gold takes a year off.
Large cap quality stocks in the U.S. benefit from flight to safety and are up single digits
Euro debt surprises on the upside
Japan stocks are the star of the year along with some Euro-sovereign debt (at least in 2012)
China is a disaster.

I predict I will make enough predictions for 2012 to be right! About at least one thing.

RE sales price will continue to go down. at least 10%

A lot of inventory will come to the market in the Spring. Sales will be sparse. Huge price drops will come late summer, fall.

What will drive this new inventory coming to market? I assume you are speaking of shadow inventory which in many cases stays as such by either being rented out or to remain the primary residence of the owner. In my mind two things make the inventory hit the market. Re owner occupied the impetus would be either rising prices rise or the owner is forced to relocate in search of employment, re units being rented out, it would be again rising prices.
I just don't see a huge amount of inventory hitting the market, other than what would be indicated by current trends, seasonally adjusted for Spring.

Excluding ultra-high end:
Sellers/inventory up 10%, buyers/demand flat, price declines average 5%.

Oh, and any problems in the Euro Zone ... zero impact on Manhattan RE. On equities, sure. On RE, no.

Rents increase 4-6% +/- for long-term tenants (excl. rent reg), and new leases and younger tenants see increases of 10% +/-.

River, how long have you been long Japan? I've been eyeing EWJ for 2 years.

Japan is interesting. Good balance sheets and valuations ,but exposure to China is a two edged sword.

carry costs high, overleveraged.. capitulation...etc..etc you name it

Riversider thinks ppl have unlimited funds in nyc re owners hands. If by unlimited you mean if they live in a 300sq ft studio and their SS chks are greater than cc, then yes you have unlimited funds.

Prediction: the truism that markets are cyclical and that the world has not/is not ending becomes apparent.

I predict that far too many will under-price risk,over estimate returns and fail to predict the annual six sigma market move. Oh and I predict that the majority of those that invest will believe they hold a minority contrarian view.